WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Rikae

If we've lynched two lions, the bear will probably side with us.

But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?

Originally Posted by Gil

Just a clarification, game over when all Lions are dead right? We don't have to hunt the bear as well do we?

I hadn't even thought of this....

[wilwarin538]

K, I think we're complicating it a bit. According to the admin thread "The innocents win when all Lions have been eliminated." So yeah, as soon as the Lions are all gone, the Village wins and if both Bear/Maiden are alive they win as well. In a traditional Bear game I think we would have had to keep hunting to get the Bear before we could win, but in this case he is foremost a Lover; so the traditional way for lovers to win is what applies here.

[Boromir88]

It's no surprise wilwa understands bears better than the rest, but she's got a thing or two to learn about lions...

Lions the family and the name comes first. They will use the other houses as their weapons. In an inn this large, with this many families with divided loyalties and alterior motives it would be easy to lay low and let us do their dirty work, while taking out their worst threats at night.

If the lions know who the bear and/or maiden is then they'll likely only become concerned if the bear becomes a clear threat by killing off Lions. However, the wiser move would be as I said, to use us as their weapons to get one of the lovers lynched, that way the other becomes a cobbler for them. And again in this inn with this many different allegiances it can be easier for the Lions to keep their paws clean.

[Coppermirror]

This is an interesting Day 1! Lots of useful discussion about the numbers in the inn, the bear and maiden and alliances, and the Targaryen. I rather adore the changed dynamic from the other, smaller games I've been in.

The only problem is that most of this won't directly help us catch the lions. 21 in the Inn, made up of 16 innocents, 3 Lannisters, and the Bear and Maiden of undefined allegiance. Most of the people talking will be innocent or undefined, so though it's a good day for innocent discussion and planning, the odds are really against picking out a Lannister.

I'm going to go and huddle by the fire under my many shawls and review what people have said so far. Mayhap I'll drink some ale while I'm at it.

Edit: crossed with Skip Spence

[Kitanna]

Soooo I just got back to work today after 4 1/2 days of being gone and I cannot describe my current working situation in family friendly terms. I honestly don't think I will be able to contribute much more today. I have two 15 minutes breaks between now and DL, so my vote will be entirely random or will be based on flimsy feelings if I can find a suspicious post while I skim over the thread.

I'll be more active D2 when I've caught up at the office and the weekend descends. Sorry about this, didn't realize the world feel apart when I took a few days off.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?

The way I see it:

We lynch the bear, lose a night kill but the Lions gain a cobbler.

Lions kill the bear, innocents gain a helper and we still lose a night kill.


I prefer the odds of a Lion killing off a bear/maiden then us lynching them and essentially helping the Lions. Sure, the two-kill night could kill off more innocents, but could also kill off a lion and an innocent.

Looking at the alternatives, lynching a bear/maiden will just end up helping the Lions more then helping the innocents.

[Nerwen]

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

Gil, you talk (and this isn't the only example) as though we could somehow plan this!

Edit: x'd with Boro.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Gil, you talk (and this isn't the only example) as though we could somehow plan this!

Edit: x'd with Boro.

I merely state an idealistic path for us to focus on. I was more saying to focus on lynching lions and letting bears be bears. As the rules state, game ends when all lions are dead. The bear could help the lions, but that risks themselves to die by them. The bear can kill off 16 villagers, and by pure luck have it and the maiden survive, but then by then the Lions will just kill them off and win.

Edit: x'd with Cop and Skip the bold

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Gil, you talk (and this isn't the only example) as though we could somehow plan this!

That's confusing me a bit too. Lot of discussion about whether or not to kill lions or the bear first. Well, how do we kill any of them?

I just can't tell if the villains are likely to be engaged in this discussion or whether they'll sit at the sides.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by skip

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

Well, maybe. The numbers may be on your side, but it would also mean we'd be without a proper analyzable wolf kill for two Nights. That doesn't help us.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

For your second part: interesting that you said you were panicked about the double night kills but you want to focus on the wolves. I think killing one of either the bear or maiden is a better goal cause that's killing one person to decrease the night kills, rather than killing 3. Though, I don't know exactly how we could go about targeting the bear/maiden specifically, my hope is one gets taken out at night so we don't get a cobbler, but even if we lynch one getting a cobbler isn't the end of the world. Plus, once one of them is dead it could be easy to figure out who their lover was based on their posts (if we do get a cobbler).

This one irks me a bit. Yes, the lovers can become a problem if they choose to, but the way for us to win is to take out the wolves. Unless it becomes obvious at some point that the lovers have sided with the wolves, focusing on lynching a lover is counter-productive. It's also a bit wolfish: if we lynch a lover instead of the wolves killing one, not only are we doing their work (they fear them as much as we do), but we're also gifting them a cobbler. Nobody seems to be concerned about that.

Then again, reading on, Wilwa's thoughts about the lovers seem more innocent-ish and trying-to-figure-it-out-right-ish. Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers.

This one seems fishy, too. "I don't like the lovers, but I don't want to do anything about it" - Subtly leading the inn towards looking for lovers more than looking for wolves, while keeping their own hands clean. Don't like it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

This would make me suspicious as well, for the same reasons as above. "The lovers are not as bad as I said before, but they're still very bad". The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold?

Originally Posted by Inzil

Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you.

This coming in response to the slightest early Day One suspicion? Woah, there.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This one irks me a bit. Yes, the lovers can become a problem if they choose to, but the way for us to win is to take out the wolves. Unless it becomes obvious at some point that the lovers have sided with the wolves, focusing on lynching a lover is counter-productive. It's also a bit wolfish: if we lynch a lover instead of the wolves killing one, not only are we doing their work (they fear them as much as we do), but we're also gifting them a cobbler. Nobody seems to be concerned about that.

Getting rid of a night kill is surely worth having a cobbler around, and I wouldn't be so sure the wolves are willing to kill the bear.

Unless it becomes obvious the bear is siding with the village, there's a good chance the wolves will appreciate the help in decreasing our numbers. They could form an alliance through hints; after all, in Lommy's scenario, the five of them could win quite quickly together.

Originally Posted by Agan

Yes he does. Foul murder is in his nature. Otherwise he'd probably get so hungry he'd eat the Maiden Fair. (This is actually not a threat.)

That's unfortunate. And all I have is a tourney sword!

Yeah, the bear will be a threat to the village in any event, and I, for one, will happily vote for anyone I strongly suspect of being black and brown and covered in hair!

++Macalaure



Oh, by the way, Skip's vote doesn't count, does it? Aren't we supposed to do this newfangled highlighting nowadays?

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yeah, the bear will be a threat to the village in any event, and I, for one, will happily vote for anyone I strongly suspect of being black and brown and covered in hair!

++Macalaure

Uh-oh, Wyth had better watch out then, too!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Oh, by the way, Skip's vote doesn't count, does it? Aren't we supposed to do this newfangled highlighting nowadays?

I'm willing to overlook unhighlighted votes that are clearly meant as a vote on Day 1, but if you people keep making prank votes, I do ask you to highlight your actual vote from now on. [ highlight ] ++Kath [/ highlight] results in red text.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Getting rid of a night kill is surely worth having a cobbler around, and I wouldn't be so sure the wolves are willing to kill the bear.

The cobbler isn't my greatest concern either, but the fact that no one seems to care at all makes me feel like there's something furry going on in the discussion.

Even if the wolves enjoy the presence of the bear, I'm sure they will enjoy it even more if we spend our time trying to kill him instead of going after them, thus increasing their likelihood of staying alive and then gift-wrapping them a cobbler while on top of it.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Yeah, the bear will be a threat to the village in any event, and I, for one, will happily vote for anyone I strongly suspect of being black and brown and covered in hair!

++Macalaure

*siiiiiiiigh*

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Even if the wolves enjoy the presence of the bear, I'm sure they will enjoy it even more if we spend our time trying to kill him instead of going after them, thus increasing their likelihood of staying alive and then gift-wrapping them a cobbler while on top of it.

The thing is, even if people think we should be "going after" the Bear more than the Lions, or vice versa, saying that is one thing, doing it is another. How exactly are we supposed to go after one over the other? Especially this early in the game, when for the most part we are shooting blind with regards to both. The only instance I can think of where we would be purposefully choosing to lynch one over the other is if the Seer reveals the Bear and a Lion (wouldn't that be something?!) and we have to decide who to lynch first (I would say Bear, because getting rid of the two night kills is worth getting stuck with a cobbler).

So anyway, deciding whether we should be targeting one over the other isn't really all that productive to me. The methods of discovering either will be fairly similar I think (kill the bad guys!), and lynching the Bear would not be terrible to the point where we should be actively trying to avoid doing it.

(3 more hours, if I'm correct?)

x'ed 3 pages! x'ed with Skip and Lottie

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Anyway, I have to vote now since I probably won't have time to do it later. This is of course a stab in the dark but I'll go with:

I daresay an ex-Lannister imp knows how to stab people in the dark. I'm confused how he's come up with those opinions on Gil. That is, I disagree with them, but it's an early random vote that looks innocent. Nothing more, nothing less, and nothing schemed about it.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

I just can't tell if the villains are likely to be engaged in this discussion or whether they'll sit at the sides.

There's always a motive for the wolves to stir up discussion and be involved in other roles besides their own. It distracts us from the task on the day...lynching them. There are certainly lions in this Targaryan/bear/lovers/hunters discussion. It's not all beneficial to them however...

1. Being Day 1 it's hard to spot the good plotting from bad plotting, best to just keep everyone talking and hope time will reveal the good from the bad before it's too late.

2. With discussion being all about the other roles today, such as the bear and Targaryan, it makes it far easier the more helpful, and unquestioned allegiance, roles to lay low and avoid both the wolves and the bear at night.

It may make finding our way through the days cruel...innocents will be killed mercilessly, but it's all for the greater good.

In any event I have to vote:

++Inzil

*disappears with no further words*

(Edit: Ok, not the last word because I started this and we were at 2 pages, and I finish now we're a good start onto 3 )

[Rikae]

Quick question, sorry if it's a silly one, but it's been a long time since I read the books:

is "for the greater good" some kind of ASOIAF reference?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?

I wonder if he has to do night kills (moddess?)

If the lovers have decided to side with us, I assume he'd use the night kills to attempt to take out the last wolf. If he has no leads, maybe he'd skip the kill?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I wonder if he has to do night kills (moddess?)

Yes he does. Foul murder is in his nature. Otherwise he'd probably get so hungry he'd eat the Maiden Fair. (This is actually not a threat.)

[Nogrod]

I forgot the game yesterday-evening and am now busy watching football... I'll try to get this read through though and hopefully contribute something later. Sorry.

Looking at the brighter side: for once I'm not flooding the thread with theories and 20+ posts on D1!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by skip spence

I don't see why anyone would fake-reveal as the Targaryan if not for some desperate self-preservation need. The risk would out-weigh the gain since the real Targaryan would start to wonder.

I played in a game once as a hunter and an ord (don't remember who) fake revealed as the hunter and basically forced me to come forward. So yeah, anything is possible, reveals should always be approached carefully, they can't always be trusted right away. And having Targaryen reveal this early wouldn't really be that beneficial, best to save it to closer to the end or give them a shot at getting a baddie. I'm completely comfortable saying that if someone claims to be Targaryen this early in the game, I will be very suspicious of them (even if they are at risk of being lynched).

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like.

There isn't much to say about wolves day 1, especially when there isn't anything special about them. All there is to get discussion going at the beginning is to talk about the unique aspects of the game.

x'ed with Nog and Rikae, who I agree with

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I played in a game once as a hunter and an ord (don't remember who) fake revealed as the hunter and basically forced me to come forward. So yeah, anything is possible, reveals should always be approached carefully, they can't always be trusted right away. And having Targaryen reveal this early wouldn't really be that beneficial, best to save it to closer to the end or give them a shot at getting a baddie. I'm completely comfortable saying that if someone claims to be Targaryen this early in the game, I will be very suspicious of them (even if they are at risk of being lynched).

Haha I think that was me!

As I remember, I was on the verge of being lynched near dead-line, and the Village was losing handsomely, so I hoped that that fake reveal would save me (it did) and that we would get a wolf instead of me (we didn't). Then I was lynched the next day for being slippery and the village lost.

[Loslote]

I'm on my lunch break right now, so I've had time to read through the thread, but I'll probably have to post, vote, and run pretty quickly here. I've only gotten impressions on some of you. I'll note down what I've got, but this game is too big for a bunch of people not to slip right past my radar, so I'm not going to bother listing the people I don't have thoughts on.

Zil: His tone is a little formal in the way it gets sometimes when he's evil.
Lommy: Has been logical and helpful, and seems genuine enough about it.
Wilwa: Has been focusing a lot of the attention on the hunter and bear, but since that is the only topic of conversation that's really stuck so far, I can't exactly fault her for that. Yes, the hunter and the bear aren't our priority - but it's better to have people talking and leaving tracks behind than sitting quietly, all agreeing that the wolves are our priorities. Wilwa looks pretty good in my eyes.
Galadriel: Her tone strikes me as a teeny bit too cautious, too thought-out. I'll keep an eye on her, but I wouldn't vote her yet.
WythDryden: Welcome to Werewolf!
Rikae: Has been very reasonable and logical. Her tone seems pretty calm, not too cautious, which either means she's not a wolf or that none of her packmates have attracted attention yet.
Mac: Strikes me as being fairly genuine in his tone. Seems to me to be more innocent than not so far
Gil: Nothing he's said has really caught my eye as being suspicious.
skip: I don't like his vote. Like Rikae said, it's a easy vote, and looks more like a wolf trying for an easy Day 1 lynch than an innocent with a genuine suspicion.

My lunch break is almost over by this point, so I'll have to vote really soon. Probably for skip unless something came up unexpectedly.

EDIT: xed since Wilwa's #76

[Loslote]

Alright, I've got to get back to work.

++skip

Good luck, village!

[satansaloser2005]

Three pages? Three pages? THREE PAGES!

I hate you all.

++Lottie

Because that was a long list that rubbed me the wrong way and I don't have time to find anything better to base a vote on. Sorry, love.

[Nogrod]

Two thoughts for starters...

It's funny people speculate so enthusiastically whether we should go for the lions or the bear - I mean it would be nice if we were that good that we spotted them just like that in the first place and could then choose which one to lynch first... That said, there can eventually be trails that lead from one lion to another but the bear is a shot in the dark unless his/her lover is in trouble. So let's just go for suspicious behaviour first and make more informed decisions when we have something to base them on.


Mac Connington's - or should we call him Mr. Griff - toying with the Targaryen-revealment is probably the only thing that caught my eye thus far. Although I'm not sure I can see a reason for anyone to do that kind of thing (be it a correct or a false hint). *baffled*


EDIT: X'd with all on page 3.