WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

G55 the Innocent wildling agrees with Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven that we don't want to kill the bear and says she would trade the extra kill for a cobbler if push came to shove. Later she comments on how her assumption that the Lovers would be against the village might have been wrong. At #22 there's a piece of banter between her and Lommy about Encaitare the peasant and bears which might have spooked the Lions about her if Encaitare is one of their number or perhaps made them think she was a bear-dreaming Seer leaving hint. But would that be enough for them to act on? Odds are low that a Seer would have dreamed of a villain on Night 1.

No, I doubt her comment on Encaitare would have been taken as a likely Seer-hint by either party (it’s basically just quoting Lommy anyway). However –despite my earlier comments– I find it odd that you think the villains would comfortably discount the idea of being Seer-dreamed on Night One. After all, not only can it happen, it happened last game. To us!

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

- Lommy of Baratheon at #48 is puzzling in her bolding and italicising of her statement about possible vote ruling. Is that really something a villain would want to say? I'll try reading it each way. (1) an innocent who really is spooked by the situation. That's consistent with what I can see of her analysis of the stats, which frankly are rather concerning. (2) a lover putting out feelers to the Lannisters. Not, perhaps, particularly likely at that point of the game. I can't see that being a good move for them. (3) a Lannister putting out feelers for the lovers. Not as risky as it would be for a lover, but still risky. Lommy would have to be a very bold Lannister taking a risk on Day 1 like that.

That statement is something that would be likely to attract the attention of the Three-Eyed Crow, and the lovers and Lannisters would want to avoid that, plus they couldn't realistically have expected to get the Three-Eyed Crow on Night 2. So perhaps Lommy is more likely to be an innocent.

Interesting. I was just reading through yesterDay, and Lommy's explanation of how the Lions and Lovers could join forces for mutual profit actually struck me as being rather suspicious. Not “String ‘er up!” suspicious, but certainly eyebrow-raising. I mean, yes, it’s something an innocent might legitimately bring up too– but I wouldn’t myself dismiss it just on the grounds of being “too risky”.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Skip of an innocent house wanted to focus on the lions rather than the lovers. Then suggests that the Targaryen should reveal...Oh, okay, I'm beginning to see how he got the axe on Day 1.

Indeed. I’m going to look over the Skip-waggon myself, but the fact is he really did walk into that, which is going to make it hard to distinguish any suspicious votes.

EDIT:X’d with Kitanna.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I doubt they would have concerned themselves with the hunter this early. Not when the seer was still on the loose. Even then I'd think the lions next choice for gifted attacks would be the ranger.

Sure– if they already knew the identity of all three gifteds. This is just like people discussing what order we should lynch the baddies in. I don’t understand this village.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Sure– if they already knew the identity of all three gifteds. This is just like people discussing what order we should lynch the baddies in. I don’t understand this village.

This was in response to the suggestion the lions were trying to knock out the hunter. I'm not suggesting they know who the gifteds are. I'm saying if they were targeting gifteds, aside from the seer, they'd want to try to find the ranger over the hunter.

[Nerwen]

Death of an Imp

#33. skip believes we should focus on Lion-hunting rather then Bear-hunting.

#34. skip suggests the Targaryen reveal: "Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?”

#35. Lommy says “that’s up to the hunter, I guess”.

#36. Volo says, "I have a cunning plan! How about we all reveal as a Targaryen!”

#38. Mac explains in some detail what is wrong with skip’s plan, which he describes as “crazy". It is in the course of this that Mac makes his own, now infamous “reveal”. (In context, this is to make a point about fake reveals.)

#44. skip disputes Mac's judgement of his plan, arguing that he can’t see why anyone would counter-reveal, that the Targaryen would be protected for a Night, thus losing the Lions a kill, and that, essentially, we’re better off *without* a non-logical Hunter. (This last seems to be the basic assumption from which he’s working.)

#46. WythDryden is suspicious of skip's initial post, then edits this to say he has changed his mind because of "posts agreeing with the strategy”.
*Shrugs* Newbie. Who knows?

#47. Kit points out that the Bear would still get a Night-kill, that the Targaryen would have no special knowledge and that a known innocent is not all that helpful in a large village.

#51. Zil says a revealed hunter is useful only later in the game. "If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever."

#56. Rikae says that in fact (counter to skip's assertion, “pretty much anyone" might potentially reveal as the Targaryen.

#66. skip (vote-post). skip doesn’t see why anyone would fake-reveal, as "the real Targaryan would start to wonder”. Replying to Zil, argues:

Originally Posted by skip

Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

But enough of that, we have to trust the Targaryan's own judgement on this.

Then votes Gil-galad (first vote of the Day)

Originally Posted by skip

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

#70.

Originally Posted by Mac

Well, maybe. The numbers may be on your side, but it would also mean we'd be without a proper analyzable wolf kill for two Nights. That doesn't help us.

Given how vehemently Mac had argued against the plan, this seems like he’s semi-caving in very suddenly, and with little cause. Odd.

#72. Gil comments that he had had a feeling he would be voted, and describes himself as a “safe lynch”.

#75. Rikae says wondering is in fact all the real Targaryen would be able to do in the case of a false-reveal, and goes on to add:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?

It is from this point that the suspicion starts to build around skip.

#76. Wilwa reminisces about the time an *ordo* outed her as the hunter by false revealing, says reveals can’t always be trusted and that an early Targaryen reveal “wouldn’t be that beneficial”.

#81. skip says this ordo was in fact himself.

#82. Lottie makes a suspicion list, in which she says of skip:

I don't like his vote. Like Rikae said, it's a easy vote, and looks more like a wolf trying for an easy Day 1 lynch than an innocent with a genuine suspicion.

#82. Lottie votes skip.

Tally: Gil-galad 1, skip 1.

#84. Sally votes Lottie.

#87. Boro describes skip's vote as "an early random vote that looks innocent”. Goes on to vote Zil.

#88. Kitanna further disputes skip's plan (replying to skip at #66).

Originally Posted by Kit

This is assuming the known ordo/Targaryan can survive through the off night. I agree with Zil. Right now there is no reason for the hunter to reveal. I'm not sure why skip thinks having the hunter step forward is good. We have a known innocent who knows as much as every ordo in this game which at this point is nothing.

#91. Wilwa makes a suspicion list:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Skip: I really don't like his suggestion about the hunter revealing. Having a known innocent isn't all that useful right now, at least not compared to how it could be in a few more days. Also not a fan of his vote, but really Day 1 votes kinda always suck.

#95. Zil (replying to skip at #66).

Originally Posted by Zil

Than again, I think the ranger ought to be more concerned with protecting possible Seers, rather than the Hunter!
And I still say a revealed Hunter would be more damaging to the Lions later.

#96. Mac makes a list, saying he has “no clue either way” about skip "said plenty, but I don't know what to do with him”.

#99. Kit votes skip.

Originally Posted by Kit

Not as random as I thought it would be, but built on flimsy reasoning. Skip has been the only one to really draw my attention. His belief that having a known innocent in exchange for a secret hunter doesn't feel right. It feels like he's pushing for something that could and probably will be harmful for the village by drawing ranger resources to protect someone who has no knowledge of anyone else's role and therefore their only benefit is being a known innocent for a day or two.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip2, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#105. Lommy makes a list, describing skip as "notable: easy vote (I feel like Gil and Skip himself are easy Day1 lynch targets because they think fast and sometimes a bit kneejerkily and are active enough to draw attention)."

#107. G55 makes a list: "skip - I don't agree with what he's said, and I don't like his vote, but I can understand his vote. At this point I think it's much easier to jump on him than claim that he jumped on Gil. So semi-vote candidate."

#110. Wilwa votes skip. "Because his ideas about the hunter were odd and I don't think they were really in our best interest. Not a lot to go on, I know, but my best hunch right now.”

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip3, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#110. Zil votes skip, as he "can't see anyone else who pings the radar as much”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip4, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#116.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Iiiinteresting!

What the ??? at this bandwagon?!

Also anyone else notice that the second and the third voter (Lottie and Sally) voted the one that had voted before them. Weird.

This is where the backlash against the skipwaggon starts.

#117. G55 says, "I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.” Votes Mac.

#118. Nog reacts to G55’s post at #107.

Originally Posted by Nog

Are you truly saying that "it's much easier to jump on him so I'd consider doing it"?

On a related issue - I do not think a Skip-lion would have proposed openly for the Targaryen to reveal... a lion should not be controversial but rather quire careful on the early stages when the lynches can be pretty random (D1 especially).

#121.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Skip is fishy, but he is always fishy (sorry! ). Why he might be a wolf: his vote was an easy one, and combined with the fishyness, it's not a very trustworthy combination. Why he might be innocent: sudden bandwagons against someone are usually against an innocent, my experience tells me. Wolves hardly go down without an objection. Then again, not sure if that rule applies in this big a village.

Of the others that have been voted this far, I'm not very suspicious of Inzil, Gil or Mac, and Lottie isn't on the top of my list either.

Currently thinking about voting Galadriel or Wilwa. Could also go for any of the under the radar club, or even Lottie or Skip if the other options are bad.

(This post x’d with #118.)

#122.G55 answers Nog at #188.

Originally Posted by G55

No, as in I can see where thes suspicion is coming from, and I agree with a good deal of it, but I'm also wary that a lot of it seems to have been spoonfed somehow. As in, I think the points against skip are quite true, but they came seemingly out of nowhere, making you think like you've felt this way all the time. Except that I'm aware that I did not come up with all that on my own and I'm being spoonfed suspicion.

#123. Rikae comments on G55’s vote-post: "Offhandedly cast suspicion at Skip voters, then make an unexplained vote for someone else?"

#124.

Originally Posted by Greenie

As others have pointed out, this was a very easy vote, and the reasoning looks a little far-fetched. But it's also Day 1, and I seem to recall an innocent Skip being lynched for stuff like this before, so I'd prefer to go for someone else.

#126. (replying to Rikae at #123), G55 says "I think I've defended skip more than cast suspicion on him, and b) the vote is hardly unexplained.”

#128. Replying to G55, Rikae says she meant she was casting suspicion on skip-voters, but now says they’re worrying her too:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I expressed my initial suspicion partly to test the waters, though I was considering voting him, it makes me uneasy when people agree with me too quickly. I mean, no one was making any accusations, and then all of a sudden several people jump on the first thing resembling a case, without any further analysis? Fishy.

Votes Wilwa.

#129. Greeniethinks G55 is “a little off” for apparently trying to cast suspicion on both skip and his voters.
(this post x’d with #127.)

#131. Mac says, "While I'm not feeling particularly well about Skip myself, I do not like that bandwaggon at all."

#132.Enca votes Nogrod.

#133. Eönwë votes skip, saying, "At the moment, the thing that stands out most to me is Skip's encouragement of a Targ reveal”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 1, Mac 1, Wilwa 1, Nog1

#134. Volo says, "I agree that at first smelling there's a nasty odor to the skip votes.”

#135. Wyth says:

Originally Posted by Wyth

I was initially going to vote on Skip just because he seemed to stand out. But again, my ideas about it were swayed with how bringing this much attention to himself would not be good strategy. Or would double psychology here be a good defense? Either way, I'm not so sure.

Votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 1, Mac 2, Wilwa 1, Nog1

#136.

Originally Posted by Eomer

We got a bandwagon, baybay!

But given how many WW games there have been (this must be the 8 millionth or something, right) I have to think that the villains won't have voted for Skip like that. It just looks too bad. They would be smarter than that... I think.

#138. Mac votes Zil.

#139. Nog believes there is at least one lion in the Skip-waggon.

#140.

Originally Posted by Gil

I feel that Skips poor choice of words when accusing me did lead to the bandwagon against him. I know the feeling, I have done it countless times.

Votes Boro.

#147. Lommy votes Wilwa.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 2, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#151. Eomer is "leaning toward lynching Wilwa rather than Skip”, thinking the latter is "more of a wrong-place-wrong-time kind of villager/guest”. Is “very curious about the bandwagon.

#154. Greenie "would prefer Wilwa over Skip, but Mac over Wilwa.”

#159. Greenie votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 3, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#161. Nogrod votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 4, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#162. Eomer says, “the Mac-voters, G55 and Wyth, are also very curious…”

#163. Volo votes G55.

#166. Eomer votes Zil, saying he is "smart enough to deflect any complaints about bandwagon-jumping”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 3, Mac 4, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1


Thoughts. Well! I agree with Eomer both bandwagons are quite curious. One conclusion we can draw is that the Skip-waggon was not a simple attempt to save a baddie, as only two other players (Zil and Mac) were in any danger, and their bandwaggons (if you can call the Zil-votes that) arose after the Skip-waggon. Undoubtedly, skip did plenty to make himself suspicious, yet the general pattern of “everyone jumps on skip", followed by “everyone denounces everyone jumping on skip” is very odd. I mean, yes, that is how it works with bandwagons, yet I’ve never seen such a sudden switching on and off of mass-suspicion.

Most noteworthy:

Rikae was the first to express actual suspicion on skip, then later got cold feet, suspected people for suspecting him and voted someone else. (Bear in mind that known innocent G55 did much the same thing.)

Zil and Kit kept on arguing against skip'splan after there seemed to me much point to doing so– it was clear by then that it wasn’t going to gain any support. (Mind you skip just wouldn’t back down– people can develop tunnel-vision in such cases.) Zil's vote (or the reasons for it) also strikes me as a little too easy.

Mac, as noted, suddenly seems almost to agree with skip's plan for no real reason. Why? A baddie suddenly seeing a chance to dispose of the hunter?

Lommy casts suspicion on the skip-voters, while still leaving herself the option of voting him (see #121).


EDIT:X’d since my last post. Really. This took ages and for some reason I can’t refresh. So I have no idea what’s happened in the meantime yet. Just letting you all know.
Edit 2: clarification.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

The band-wagon on Skip gives me a bad feeling, was his poor reasoning really enough to garner suspicion or did it give an opening for the lions to start an easy vote. It was a day 1 vote after all, which are flimsy at best.

The order was Lottie, Kit, Wilwa, me, and then Eönwë to finish it. I think I was the first to cast any suspicion on skip for his plan of the Hunter revealing.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?

That brings a question: what happens if both are successful, ie the Bear goes after a Lion and the Lions target the Bear? MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction)?

Originally Posted by Encaitare

I've just caught up on the thread and need to go to bed soon, so no time for a detailed response. But I do have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the bandwagon on Skip yesterDay. In order of their voting, that was Loslote, Kitanna, Wilwa, Inzil, and Eonwe. This is mostly based on gut feeling, but I don't think a Lion would be one of the first to vote, so probably not Lottie. So that leaves Kitanna, Inzil, and Eonwe. I'll review the thread tomorrow to likely decide among these three.

I think it's very likely a Lion was in the skip-wagon. When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst , but now I might say Kit. Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Again - how do we choose between those two? How do we tell? And in any case, I'd say hunting the lions is our first priority since we win once all the lions are dead. It doesn't get much more straightforward than that, does it? Unless, of course, we at some point have very clear evidence of someone being the bear and no idea about the lions, it might be worth a lynch, but at the moment, spending a lot of time and energy on wondering about the bear is probably not worth our while.

Also, the Bear is every bit as much a threat to the Lions as to everyone else. The alignment of the Lovers is fluid, and the Lions are fixed. That alone should make the Lions priority.

[Encaitare]

As I said before, I strongly feel that one Lion (not more) was in on the Skip bandwagon yesterDay. Loslote was first, so I don't think it's her. Wilwa could have been suspicious, having voted third of five, but turned out to be the Seer. So now to focus on the posting history of the remaining three.

Kitanna
On page 1, she only made a joke post. On page 2, she reiterated what some others had said, that she doesn't think targeting the Lovers should be a priority, because hopefully the Lovers will also be targeting Lions. She disagreed with Skip that a Targaryen reveal would be a good strategy. She also stated that work had been crazy busy, so her vote would likely be random.

On page 3, she agreed with Inzil that a Targaryen reveal would be better for later in the game. She voted for Skip, acknowledging that it wasn't much to go on, but that she found the push for the reveal to be troublesome. That was it for her posting on Day 1.

On page 5, Day 2, she thinks that the Lovers chose to target Wilwa because they thought she was a Lion, trying to steer conversation toward the Lovers. She notes how Inzil brought up that the lovers would have to take sides. She finds [b]Thinlomien[b] and Nerwen to be somewhat suspicious. She thinks Mac's fake reveal is either a distraction of someone who is "guilty," or that he's "a crazy Ordo". She says Volo's idea to forge an alliance with the Lovers makes sense, but that the Lovers are also a threat and there's no real way to make an alliance. She agrees with what Gil-Galad says, and says:

Originally posted by Kitanna
I'm waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

She doesn't find Lottie or Sally suspicious. She points out a line of Wilwa's that she thinks could have made the Lovers nervous, where Wilwa said that if the Seer could reveal both a Bear and a Lion, it would be better to lynch the Bear first. She thinks Wilwa dreamed of either Mac, Boro, Rikae, herself, or Nerwen, but personally finds Mac suspicious. She notes that Eomer's push to find the lions could just as easily be a lion's tactic.

She later talks about G55 and her exchange with Eomer. She finds Enca's (my) response to Eomer to look strange given G55's innocence. Nogrod feels suspicious of G55, and Kit thinks that G55's strong endorsement of Wilwa could have been seen as a Seer hint.

On page 6, Kit and Eomer had an exchange where they both noted my "chummy" behavior with Eomer. Kitanna reiterates that she thinks the Lions targeted G55 because they got Seer vibes from her endorsement of Wilwa.

That's it up until now.

Final thoughts on Kitanna: Although she was the second vote for Skip, effectively starting the bandwagon, I think her reasoning is sound throughout. She acknowledges that a Day 1 vote naturally doesn't have much to support it, but I can see why she voted the way she did. I don't find Kit to be terribly suspicious at this point, although her phrasing "who cares if the lovers live until the end?" is a little odd. I'm leaning toward Kitanna being innocent at this time.

No more time at present to do a breakdown of Inzil and Eomer. (EDIT: This should have said Eonwe, not Eomer, as it was Eonwe who cast the final vote for skip.) Hopefully I will have time to do so before the voting deadline.

[Nogrod]

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:

Originally Posted by Encaitare

On page 3, she agreed with Inzil that a Targaryen reveal would be better for later in the game.
On page 5, Day 2, she thinks that the Lovers chose to target Wilwa because they thought she was a Lion, trying to steer conversation toward the Lovers. She notes how Inzil brought up that the lovers would have to take sides.

I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

To be clear, my summary did not include every detail of Kitanna's posts, just the points that stuck out to me.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.

Since you keep bringing this up, I suppose I should address it. I hadn't until now because I thought it was fairly obvious that I was joking around. G55 and Eomer had been going back and forth, so I jumped in with a joke post. Lightening the mood, as it were -- we do play this game for fun, right? -- though it seems to have backfired.

I'm going to go back and attempt to summarize the posts from Inzil and Eonwe, who are my two remaining suspects.

[Encaitare]

Note: As I begin this post, there are 45 minutes left toward the deadline. So, this will not be an exhaustive post, but I will make note of things that stand out to me.

Inziladun

Page 1, notes that the Lovers can choose which side to support, and change at any time.

Page 2, says the Lions should be the main focus, not the Lovers, and agrees with Kitanna that a Cobbler is not the worst that could happen.

Page 3, says that he is leaning toward suspicion of Skip, because of the Targaryen reveal stuff, and his "seemingly easy" vote for Gil. Then votes for Skip.

Page 5: Wonders what G55 did to get the Lions' attention, saying it's probably the only useful information from the Night. Various other discussion, agreeing and disagreeing with certain people, very little new information introduced.

Page 6: Says the votes should be examined. Agrees that it's likely that a Lion voted for Skip, and repeats that killing the Lions is the priority. Is curious about Boro and Mac's votes.

Page 7: Says that out of the Skip voters, he was the first to cast suspicion on Skip.

Final thoughts on Inzil: I don't know why a "seemingly easy" vote on Day 1 is a red flag. It's Day 1, almost no one knows anything. I think it's unusual that he thinks there's little use in analyzing why the Lovers chose to kill Wilwa. Could Inzil be one of them? But if he were a Lover, that would be a clumsy thing to say...

I'm still suspicious because of his vote placement yesterDay. Now to analyze Eonwe before the deadline.

[WythDryden]

The dynamics and and complexities of this game is pretty huge. A question I have is if the bear and the lions both go after the same person in the night what happens, and how does that get resolved?

Admittedly I'm a bit overwhelmed by all the different people, and I dont think that I have the time to go back and find all the quotes to guide my suspicions, but I'll lay out the list here as my gut feels. And honestly, everyone has made so many points about each of the people here that I don't think I can really contribute more to them, even if that does make me suspicious for not contributing.

No idea:
Eönwë
A Little Green
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Coppermirror
Nogrod - Seems innocent. Exploring many options and generally putting ideas on the table.
Gil-Galad
satansaloser2005


Maybe an idea:
Kitanna
Encaitare
Thinlómien
Boromir88 - Says a lanister would let the village do the dirty work, then disappears.
Loslote
Nerwen
Rikae
Volo
Macalaure - With the poking and prodding and such of today, I'm less convinced than before that he is a lion. It seems to be the strategy to try and draw lions out of the woods, so he's looking ok here. Though I do think he could be a bear.


Squinty-eyed:
Inziladun

Ultimately I think the bear is still on the side of the villagers. Even if the kill takes an innocent they may still be operating under the intentions of trying to get a wolf. Which is why I don't think I'll be voting for Mac. Though, I'm adittedly a little afraid of voting for for Inz, in the event that he is an innocent, it may look like I'm jumping on a bandwagon there too and putting myself in a bad position. Oh well, I'm still learning as I go. Apparently I'm suspicious of more people than not. And that's subject to change.

Edit: X'd Volo

[Nogrod]

Bah... it's like everyone except Mac, Volo and maybe Skip whom G55 kind of "does not mention"...

That said, I might be ready to consider Kit among a few others. Adding the point Lommy & Greenie have brought fore about people defending her it might be a decent try.

Can you say who have done that defending though? I think I have no time to go for checking that - but if you two or one of you had a clearer idea than just "people have been" defending her?

[Encaitare]

As with my previous post, I won't cover everything here, but make note of the things that stand out.

Eonwe

Page 4, first and only post of the Day. Discusses the possibility of a Targaryen reveal, including what if a Lover and a Lion both fake-reveal. Votes for Skip and says this:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

And since I wouldn't expect a fellow lion to start a concrete vote against one when the feeling was already against one, if he is one, I suppose this'll make Lottie look innocent.

This is confusingly phrased and took me a minute to parse. I think he means that Lottie wouldn't start a vote against Skip if they were both Lions, so that if Skip turned out to be a Lion, Lottie would appear innocent. But initially the phrase "fellow lion" struck me as a slip of the tongue.

Page 7, clarifies something he said about a false-reveal Targaryen potentially buying an extra day of life. Lists his general feelings, is most suspicious of Boro and Inzil.

Final thoughts on Eonwe: He hasn't really done enough posting for me to get a vibe off of him. I still feel that one of the Lions voted to kill Skip, but I'm not leaning toward this one.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I think it's very likely a Lion was in the skip-wagon. When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst , but now I might say Kit. Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie.

So, you thought the wagon looked bad at the time, and then you joined it? Ok...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

So, you thought the wagon looked bad at the time, and then you joined it? Ok...

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.

You weren't. I was.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?

That is also beside the point - if you decided the wagon looked fishy, why did you proceed to jump on it?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You weren't. I was.

Ok. I was thinking only of the skip voters who preceded me.

Originally Posted by Rikae

That is also beside the point - if you decided the wagon looked fishy, why did you proceed to jump on it?

Mainly because I was pressed for time and had no better ideas.

[Macalaure]

Some good points were raised against Inzil, so I had to go take a look myself.

Originally Posted by Inzil

When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst , but now I might say Kit.

So...
- Your own suspicion aside, you voted with people you thought were sketchy, however:
- You did not mention any of this when you did vote.
- You did not post again after your vote, and you crossed your vote with Wilwa, so, unless you were lurking (after voting a whole hour before the deadline!), you did not actually see much of the voting, at least not yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I could see the placement of his vote as something a Lion would do, but I do think it would have been more desirable for one to have placed a bandwagon vote in the middle.

You don't say.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.

Where?
Rikae first raises points against Skip in #75, and Loslote submits the first vote for him in #83. You didn't post in between them. You talk a bit about him in #51, but you can't call that casting suspicion.
I thought at first, maybe he came up with his own points and didn't realize somebody else already gave them - happens - but you can't make such a mistake honestly anymore after the first vote was cast.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Ok. I was thinking only of the skip voters who preceded me.

I don't think this makes sense.


Defend yourself, sir!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

So, you thought the wagon looked bad at the time, and then you joined it? Ok...

Precious!

Even if you Inzil actually voiced a suspicion on Skip the first (I haven't checked that but have no reason to believe you'd lie here as it could be easily checked by anyone), this is an interesting phrasing by you:

Originally Posted by Inzil

Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie

And then you kind of do exactly that...

The question this is begging then is, would you have been that careless on your phrasing if you were a lion?

[Eönwë]

So, I'd just managed to get caught up, but then my internet died suddenly. Back now, and reading.

[Macalaure]

Reading along, thinking along, and replying to some stuff people said about me.

Originally Posted by Inzil

He and I have a history of suspecting one another (usually falsely)

That's not making me any less suspicious of you. At all.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Then, looking through the votes yesterDay, I noticed something else interesting. After Mac made his famous "the numbers may be on your side" comment, he accumulated a couple of votes. He still wasn't the top candidate by any means, but he had to leave right as he got his second vote, and there were enough people left that the lynch could easily have swung in his favor while he was gone. If Mac were a lion who had made a legitimate slip, he could well have felt that he was in real danger of being lynched - but he doesn't vote the leading candidate at the time. Instead, he gives a second vote to Zil, who was not really in danger of being lynched, which makes Mac's vote essentially a throw-away

I had two votes at the time, and you say yourself that there were enough votes left that I could've been lynched. I gave Inzil the second vote as well, so it was clearly not a throw-away. I could've voted for Skip, but I didn't suspect him particularly, and the bandwaggon looked sinister. Among the people with one vote at the time, Inzil looked best to me.

Originally Posted by Loslote

His interactions with Wytherkins strike me as hugely concerning, since he's basically poking a newbie player until he jumps, then saying "oh, he jumped, he must be evil!" when, realistically, I would expect a first-time player to be a little defensive, and honestly, Wythy D. has been more composed than I would have expected in regards to Mac's poking.

Oh come on. I made one long-shot comment about him - you can hardly call that poking - and he jumps right at me. I am taking into account that he's a new player and his defensiveness doesn't have to mean anything, but it still deserved to be pointed out.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Mac, as noted, suddenly seems almost to agree with skip's plan for no real reason. Why?

All I said yesterDay about lovers and lions, while I stand by it, I mostly used it to see whether anyone would react in a remotely suspicious manner. I didn't feel strongly about it, and Skip made a valid objection. Why would I want to pick a fight with him?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I had two votes at the time, and you say yourself that there were enough votes left that I could've been lynched. I gave Inzil the second vote as well, so it was clearly not a throw-away. I could've voted for Skip, but I didn't suspect him particularly, and the bandwaggon looked sinister. Among the people with one vote at the time, Inzil looked best to me.

You had two votes that had just come in, one right after the other, and more suspicion from other sources. Zil had had one vote very early on in the day, and there was no momentum towards his lynch. Voting for Zil was enough of a throw-away not to risk him actually dying, but looked dangerous enough for him to be able to point to that as a reason why he couldn't be your packmate.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Cop

I think I'm going to vote Eomer. My reasons for this are:
- Mostly his general tone and posting style yesterDay. It came over as reserved and opaque to me, and the sort of thing a lion might go in for.
- His vote placement. It was placed in a way where it couldn't have any real meaning for the outcome.

Given that Eomer had expressed doubt of both the skip and Mac wagons, I don't think it's surprising he tried to keep out of them; this strikes me as a rather forced reason for voting him.

Edit: x'd since my last post.

[Rikae]

I'm going to assume Zil missed my post and thought he was the first - it makes no sense for anyone, innocent or baddie, to proclaim "I was first" when you know you weren't.

It does make him look a bit better. I'd expect a lion to make sure of something like that.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm going to assume Zil missed my post and thought he was the first - it makes no sense for anyone, innocent or baddie, to proclaim "I was first" when you know you weren't.

It does make him look a bit better. I'd expect a lion to make sure of something like that.

I think that was just a typo. Because otherwise the sentence makes no sense.

edit: Missed out actual quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.

[Nogrod]

Talking about votes that were more or less wasted / inconsequential aka. ones lions and other creatures who don't care who dies if their mate is not on the chopping-board (or do not wish to be scrutinized too much) prefer. (EDIT: added the verb "prefer" to make sense of the sentence)

In the order of dubiousness (aka. the latest first).

Volo's vote for G55.

Gil's vote for Boro.

Encai's vote for Nog.

Volo's is a total cast-away. With Gil and Encai you might imagine there was a possibility the ones they voted could also be lynched - but none of them actually tried to persuade others to vote their way or try to influence the outcome.

Detachment on who's lynched is one of the signs that should bring red flags around.


Also a question to Eomer: with Skip on 5 and Mac on 4 votes, did you really think voting Zil 1 minute before the DL would make a difference and what would that have been?

Volo I think has already answered why he voted the way he did - even if I'm not sure he could have really thought G55 was "lynchable" at that point even if he honestly suspected her - so whether he actually "knew" he was giving a throwaway - and in that case, did he do that on purpose or was it a genuine mistake?


EDIT: X'd with a lot...

[Nogrod]

I'll rephrase my last post into questions before I go for a while...


Eomer: What were you thinking throwing your vote away at the last minute? You really didn't think there would have been 3 votes coming Inzil's way crossing yours there at the last seconds to make your vote meaningful?

Volo: a) Did you really believe G55 could have gathered the votes to be lynched in the last five minutes? b) Why did you thought you should mention that you were "playing along" with my suspicions of G55? A cover (or even an attempt at framing) perhaps?

Gil & Encai: It looks easily that you just tried to make a vote that would look reasonable enough (so giving something in place of an argument to back your vote) but you didn't try to make a difference by trying to make others see your point. So bored ordos or more sinister ones trying to be careful?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also a question to Eomer: with Skip on 5 and Mac on 4 votes, did you really think voting Zil 1 minute before the DL would make a difference and what would that have been?

I did not think it would make a difference to the end result, no. However, I do believe that every player should vote. Mac seems innocent-ish to me (still) and I was fairly certain Skip was innocent. I was not going to be responsible for pushing Mac into the lead (although I promise you, I have no real problem should the rest of you want to violently lynch him today ).

I suspected Inzil so I put it in writing, as it were. I wouldn't agree that it's 'throwing my vote away', as has been claimed earlier.

Inzil is still top of my list, mostly for what is perhaps a rather unfair 'gut feeling' (he reminds me somewhat of myself as a villain, in writing style) and I am intrigued by certain cases put forward against him today. I'm still surprised that the other suspicious Skip-voter (Wilwa) was innocent (and extremely valuable ) and doubt that they both were innocent.

Need to leave now, so:

++INZILADUN