WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

The band-wagon on Skip gives me a bad feeling, was his poor reasoning really enough to garner suspicion or did it give an opening for the lions to start an easy vote. It was a day 1 vote after all, which are flimsy at best.

The order was Lottie, Kit, Wilwa, me, and then Eönwë to finish it. I think I was the first to cast any suspicion on skip for his plan of the Hunter revealing.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?

That brings a question: what happens if both are successful, ie the Bear goes after a Lion and the Lions target the Bear? MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction)?

Originally Posted by Encaitare

I've just caught up on the thread and need to go to bed soon, so no time for a detailed response. But I do have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the bandwagon on Skip yesterDay. In order of their voting, that was Loslote, Kitanna, Wilwa, Inzil, and Eonwe. This is mostly based on gut feeling, but I don't think a Lion would be one of the first to vote, so probably not Lottie. So that leaves Kitanna, Inzil, and Eonwe. I'll review the thread tomorrow to likely decide among these three.

I think it's very likely a Lion was in the skip-wagon. When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst , but now I might say Kit. Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Again - how do we choose between those two? How do we tell? And in any case, I'd say hunting the lions is our first priority since we win once all the lions are dead. It doesn't get much more straightforward than that, does it? Unless, of course, we at some point have very clear evidence of someone being the bear and no idea about the lions, it might be worth a lynch, but at the moment, spending a lot of time and energy on wondering about the bear is probably not worth our while.

Also, the Bear is every bit as much a threat to the Lions as to everyone else. The alignment of the Lovers is fluid, and the Lions are fixed. That alone should make the Lions priority.

[Encaitare]

As I said before, I strongly feel that one Lion (not more) was in on the Skip bandwagon yesterDay. Loslote was first, so I don't think it's her. Wilwa could have been suspicious, having voted third of five, but turned out to be the Seer. So now to focus on the posting history of the remaining three.

Kitanna
On page 1, she only made a joke post. On page 2, she reiterated what some others had said, that she doesn't think targeting the Lovers should be a priority, because hopefully the Lovers will also be targeting Lions. She disagreed with Skip that a Targaryen reveal would be a good strategy. She also stated that work had been crazy busy, so her vote would likely be random.

On page 3, she agreed with Inzil that a Targaryen reveal would be better for later in the game. She voted for Skip, acknowledging that it wasn't much to go on, but that she found the push for the reveal to be troublesome. That was it for her posting on Day 1.

On page 5, Day 2, she thinks that the Lovers chose to target Wilwa because they thought she was a Lion, trying to steer conversation toward the Lovers. She notes how Inzil brought up that the lovers would have to take sides. She finds [b]Thinlomien[b] and Nerwen to be somewhat suspicious. She thinks Mac's fake reveal is either a distraction of someone who is "guilty," or that he's "a crazy Ordo". She says Volo's idea to forge an alliance with the Lovers makes sense, but that the Lovers are also a threat and there's no real way to make an alliance. She agrees with what Gil-Galad says, and says:

Originally posted by Kitanna
I'm waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

She doesn't find Lottie or Sally suspicious. She points out a line of Wilwa's that she thinks could have made the Lovers nervous, where Wilwa said that if the Seer could reveal both a Bear and a Lion, it would be better to lynch the Bear first. She thinks Wilwa dreamed of either Mac, Boro, Rikae, herself, or Nerwen, but personally finds Mac suspicious. She notes that Eomer's push to find the lions could just as easily be a lion's tactic.

She later talks about G55 and her exchange with Eomer. She finds Enca's (my) response to Eomer to look strange given G55's innocence. Nogrod feels suspicious of G55, and Kit thinks that G55's strong endorsement of Wilwa could have been seen as a Seer hint.

On page 6, Kit and Eomer had an exchange where they both noted my "chummy" behavior with Eomer. Kitanna reiterates that she thinks the Lions targeted G55 because they got Seer vibes from her endorsement of Wilwa.

That's it up until now.

Final thoughts on Kitanna: Although she was the second vote for Skip, effectively starting the bandwagon, I think her reasoning is sound throughout. She acknowledges that a Day 1 vote naturally doesn't have much to support it, but I can see why she voted the way she did. I don't find Kit to be terribly suspicious at this point, although her phrasing "who cares if the lovers live until the end?" is a little odd. I'm leaning toward Kitanna being innocent at this time.

No more time at present to do a breakdown of Inzil and Eomer. (EDIT: This should have said Eonwe, not Eomer, as it was Eonwe who cast the final vote for skip.) Hopefully I will have time to do so before the voting deadline.

[Nogrod]

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:

Originally Posted by Encaitare

On page 3, she agreed with Inzil that a Targaryen reveal would be better for later in the game.
On page 5, Day 2, she thinks that the Lovers chose to target Wilwa because they thought she was a Lion, trying to steer conversation toward the Lovers. She notes how Inzil brought up that the lovers would have to take sides.

I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

To be clear, my summary did not include every detail of Kitanna's posts, just the points that stuck out to me.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.

Since you keep bringing this up, I suppose I should address it. I hadn't until now because I thought it was fairly obvious that I was joking around. G55 and Eomer had been going back and forth, so I jumped in with a joke post. Lightening the mood, as it were -- we do play this game for fun, right? -- though it seems to have backfired.

I'm going to go back and attempt to summarize the posts from Inzil and Eonwe, who are my two remaining suspects.

[Encaitare]

Note: As I begin this post, there are 45 minutes left toward the deadline. So, this will not be an exhaustive post, but I will make note of things that stand out to me.

Inziladun

Page 1, notes that the Lovers can choose which side to support, and change at any time.

Page 2, says the Lions should be the main focus, not the Lovers, and agrees with Kitanna that a Cobbler is not the worst that could happen.

Page 3, says that he is leaning toward suspicion of Skip, because of the Targaryen reveal stuff, and his "seemingly easy" vote for Gil. Then votes for Skip.

Page 5: Wonders what G55 did to get the Lions' attention, saying it's probably the only useful information from the Night. Various other discussion, agreeing and disagreeing with certain people, very little new information introduced.

Page 6: Says the votes should be examined. Agrees that it's likely that a Lion voted for Skip, and repeats that killing the Lions is the priority. Is curious about Boro and Mac's votes.

Page 7: Says that out of the Skip voters, he was the first to cast suspicion on Skip.

Final thoughts on Inzil: I don't know why a "seemingly easy" vote on Day 1 is a red flag. It's Day 1, almost no one knows anything. I think it's unusual that he thinks there's little use in analyzing why the Lovers chose to kill Wilwa. Could Inzil be one of them? But if he were a Lover, that would be a clumsy thing to say...

I'm still suspicious because of his vote placement yesterDay. Now to analyze Eonwe before the deadline.

[WythDryden]

The dynamics and and complexities of this game is pretty huge. A question I have is if the bear and the lions both go after the same person in the night what happens, and how does that get resolved?

Admittedly I'm a bit overwhelmed by all the different people, and I dont think that I have the time to go back and find all the quotes to guide my suspicions, but I'll lay out the list here as my gut feels. And honestly, everyone has made so many points about each of the people here that I don't think I can really contribute more to them, even if that does make me suspicious for not contributing.

No idea:
Eönwë
A Little Green
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Coppermirror
Nogrod - Seems innocent. Exploring many options and generally putting ideas on the table.
Gil-Galad
satansaloser2005


Maybe an idea:
Kitanna
Encaitare
Thinlómien
Boromir88 - Says a lanister would let the village do the dirty work, then disappears.
Loslote
Nerwen
Rikae
Volo
Macalaure - With the poking and prodding and such of today, I'm less convinced than before that he is a lion. It seems to be the strategy to try and draw lions out of the woods, so he's looking ok here. Though I do think he could be a bear.


Squinty-eyed:
Inziladun

Ultimately I think the bear is still on the side of the villagers. Even if the kill takes an innocent they may still be operating under the intentions of trying to get a wolf. Which is why I don't think I'll be voting for Mac. Though, I'm adittedly a little afraid of voting for for Inz, in the event that he is an innocent, it may look like I'm jumping on a bandwagon there too and putting myself in a bad position. Oh well, I'm still learning as I go. Apparently I'm suspicious of more people than not. And that's subject to change.

Edit: X'd Volo

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by WythDryden

The dynamics and and complexities of this game is pretty huge. A question I have is if the bear and the lions both go after the same person in the night what happens, and how does that get resolved?

If they target the same person, whoever makes it there first (that is, sends their kill first) gets the credit.

If they target each other, both parties die.

(12 people left to vote, Lommy - did you forget to count yourself again? )

[Nogrod]

Bah... it's like everyone except Mac, Volo and maybe Skip whom G55 kind of "does not mention"...

That said, I might be ready to consider Kit among a few others. Adding the point Lommy & Greenie have brought fore about people defending her it might be a decent try.

Can you say who have done that defending though? I think I have no time to go for checking that - but if you two or one of you had a clearer idea than just "people have been" defending her?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Can you say who have done that defending though? I think I have no time to go for checking that - but if you two or one of you had a clearer idea than just "people have been" defending her?

I checked people who have made points in her favour are: Mac, Cop, Encai, you, Rikae.


edit: xed with everyone, wow

[Encaitare]

As with my previous post, I won't cover everything here, but make note of the things that stand out.

Eonwe

Page 4, first and only post of the Day. Discusses the possibility of a Targaryen reveal, including what if a Lover and a Lion both fake-reveal. Votes for Skip and says this:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

And since I wouldn't expect a fellow lion to start a concrete vote against one when the feeling was already against one, if he is one, I suppose this'll make Lottie look innocent.

This is confusingly phrased and took me a minute to parse. I think he means that Lottie wouldn't start a vote against Skip if they were both Lions, so that if Skip turned out to be a Lion, Lottie would appear innocent. But initially the phrase "fellow lion" struck me as a slip of the tongue.

Page 7, clarifies something he said about a false-reveal Targaryen potentially buying an extra day of life. Lists his general feelings, is most suspicious of Boro and Inzil.

Final thoughts on Eonwe: He hasn't really done enough posting for me to get a vibe off of him. I still feel that one of the Lions voted to kill Skip, but I'm not leaning toward this one.

[WythDryden]

++Inzil

[Nogrod]

Do I recollect it wrong, but didn't someone make the same point just a moment ago that if X then Lottie would look better?

No time to check or grandiously revise my opinions now, but let that be checked toMorrow...


EDIT: Referring to Encai's post two above this one here...

[A Little Green]

Again, unless I'm mistaken -

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen – Mac
Rikae – Encai
Kit – Encai (2)
Wyth – Inzil (3)
Inzil – Mac (2)
Gil – Mac (3)

[Encaitare]

I've explained my reasoning in other posts, but in summary, I have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the Skip bandwagon. Loslote was first and so is less suspicious to me. Kitanna has played very reasonably. Wilwa was the Seer, and Eonwe has not posted enough to give me a strong feeling either way. So that leaves...

++Inziladun

Though if Inzil turns out to be innocent, I will start to wonder about Eonwe.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I think it's very likely a Lion was in the skip-wagon. When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst , but now I might say Kit. Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie.

So, you thought the wagon looked bad at the time, and then you joined it? Ok...

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

So, you thought the wagon looked bad at the time, and then you joined it? Ok...

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.

You weren't. I was.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?

That is also beside the point - if you decided the wagon looked fishy, why did you proceed to jump on it?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

You weren't. I was.

Ok. I was thinking only of the skip voters who preceded me.

Originally Posted by Rikae

That is also beside the point - if you decided the wagon looked fishy, why did you proceed to jump on it?

Mainly because I was pressed for time and had no better ideas.

[Macalaure]

Some good points were raised against Inzil, so I had to go take a look myself.

Originally Posted by Inzil

When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst , but now I might say Kit.

So...
- Your own suspicion aside, you voted with people you thought were sketchy, however:
- You did not mention any of this when you did vote.
- You did not post again after your vote, and you crossed your vote with Wilwa, so, unless you were lurking (after voting a whole hour before the deadline!), you did not actually see much of the voting, at least not yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I could see the placement of his vote as something a Lion would do, but I do think it would have been more desirable for one to have placed a bandwagon vote in the middle.

You don't say.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.

Where?
Rikae first raises points against Skip in #75, and Loslote submits the first vote for him in #83. You didn't post in between them. You talk a bit about him in #51, but you can't call that casting suspicion.
I thought at first, maybe he came up with his own points and didn't realize somebody else already gave them - happens - but you can't make such a mistake honestly anymore after the first vote was cast.

Originally Posted by Inzil

Ok. I was thinking only of the skip voters who preceded me.

I don't think this makes sense.


Defend yourself, sir!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Copper

Our Wilwa the Three-Eyed Ravenbeing zapped on Night 2 is the worst thing that could have happened. 18 people left, of which there are 2 lovers, 3 lions, and 13 innocents. It's also unfortunate that the 3 we've lost were talkative.

I'm never too fond of excessive lamentations over whoever died, and the tone of this particular one rubs me the wrong way.

Originally Posted by Kit, re: Gal

Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions. In which case Volo and Mac look decent.

Didn't mention any lions? Meaning what?

Originally Posted by Encai

As I said before, I strongly feel that one Lion (not more) was in on the Skip bandwagon yesterDay. Loslote was first, so I don't think it's her.

Not sure about this - Lottie's vote was, in a way, even safer than those in the middle of a bandwagon. Skip was a very easy target in many ways.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Eönwë aka the King-under-the-Radar

This pretty much made my day.


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Kitanna]

++Enca

Just got super busy at work, but the short of it
1) she's been just vocal enough to appear helpful, but not so vocal as to draw too much attention
2) she seemed very chummy D1, especially with Eomer
3) her vote for Nogrod looked very safe to me

edit: cross-posted with everyone since my last post

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

So, you thought the wagon looked bad at the time, and then you joined it? Ok...

Precious!

Even if you Inzil actually voiced a suspicion on Skip the first (I haven't checked that but have no reason to believe you'd lie here as it could be easily checked by anyone), this is an interesting phrasing by you:

Originally Posted by Inzil

Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie

And then you kind of do exactly that...

The question this is begging then is, would you have been that careless on your phrasing if you were a lion?

[Eönwë]

So, I'd just managed to get caught up, but then my internet died suddenly. Back now, and reading.

[Macalaure]

Reading along, thinking along, and replying to some stuff people said about me.

Originally Posted by Inzil

He and I have a history of suspecting one another (usually falsely)

That's not making me any less suspicious of you. At all.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Then, looking through the votes yesterDay, I noticed something else interesting. After Mac made his famous "the numbers may be on your side" comment, he accumulated a couple of votes. He still wasn't the top candidate by any means, but he had to leave right as he got his second vote, and there were enough people left that the lynch could easily have swung in his favor while he was gone. If Mac were a lion who had made a legitimate slip, he could well have felt that he was in real danger of being lynched - but he doesn't vote the leading candidate at the time. Instead, he gives a second vote to Zil, who was not really in danger of being lynched, which makes Mac's vote essentially a throw-away

I had two votes at the time, and you say yourself that there were enough votes left that I could've been lynched. I gave Inzil the second vote as well, so it was clearly not a throw-away. I could've voted for Skip, but I didn't suspect him particularly, and the bandwaggon looked sinister. Among the people with one vote at the time, Inzil looked best to me.

Originally Posted by Loslote

His interactions with Wytherkins strike me as hugely concerning, since he's basically poking a newbie player until he jumps, then saying "oh, he jumped, he must be evil!" when, realistically, I would expect a first-time player to be a little defensive, and honestly, Wythy D. has been more composed than I would have expected in regards to Mac's poking.

Oh come on. I made one long-shot comment about him - you can hardly call that poking - and he jumps right at me. I am taking into account that he's a new player and his defensiveness doesn't have to mean anything, but it still deserved to be pointed out.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Mac, as noted, suddenly seems almost to agree with skip's plan for no real reason. Why?

All I said yesterDay about lovers and lions, while I stand by it, I mostly used it to see whether anyone would react in a remotely suspicious manner. I didn't feel strongly about it, and Skip made a valid objection. Why would I want to pick a fight with him?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I had two votes at the time, and you say yourself that there were enough votes left that I could've been lynched. I gave Inzil the second vote as well, so it was clearly not a throw-away. I could've voted for Skip, but I didn't suspect him particularly, and the bandwaggon looked sinister. Among the people with one vote at the time, Inzil looked best to me.

You had two votes that had just come in, one right after the other, and more suspicion from other sources. Zil had had one vote very early on in the day, and there was no momentum towards his lynch. Voting for Zil was enough of a throw-away not to risk him actually dying, but looked dangerous enough for him to be able to point to that as a reason why he couldn't be your packmate.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Cop

I think I'm going to vote Eomer. My reasons for this are:
- Mostly his general tone and posting style yesterDay. It came over as reserved and opaque to me, and the sort of thing a lion might go in for.
- His vote placement. It was placed in a way where it couldn't have any real meaning for the outcome.

Given that Eomer had expressed doubt of both the skip and Mac wagons, I don't think it's surprising he tried to keep out of them; this strikes me as a rather forced reason for voting him.

Edit: x'd since my last post.

[Rikae]

I'm going to assume Zil missed my post and thought he was the first - it makes no sense for anyone, innocent or baddie, to proclaim "I was first" when you know you weren't.

It does make him look a bit better. I'd expect a lion to make sure of something like that.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm going to assume Zil missed my post and thought he was the first - it makes no sense for anyone, innocent or baddie, to proclaim "I was first" when you know you weren't.

It does make him look a bit better. I'd expect a lion to make sure of something like that.

I think that was just a typo. Because otherwise the sentence makes no sense.

edit: Missed out actual quote:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.

[Nogrod]

Talking about votes that were more or less wasted / inconsequential aka. ones lions and other creatures who don't care who dies if their mate is not on the chopping-board (or do not wish to be scrutinized too much) prefer. (EDIT: added the verb "prefer" to make sense of the sentence)

In the order of dubiousness (aka. the latest first).

Volo's vote for G55.

Gil's vote for Boro.

Encai's vote for Nog.

Volo's is a total cast-away. With Gil and Encai you might imagine there was a possibility the ones they voted could also be lynched - but none of them actually tried to persuade others to vote their way or try to influence the outcome.

Detachment on who's lynched is one of the signs that should bring red flags around.


Also a question to Eomer: with Skip on 5 and Mac on 4 votes, did you really think voting Zil 1 minute before the DL would make a difference and what would that have been?

Volo I think has already answered why he voted the way he did - even if I'm not sure he could have really thought G55 was "lynchable" at that point even if he honestly suspected her - so whether he actually "knew" he was giving a throwaway - and in that case, did he do that on purpose or was it a genuine mistake?


EDIT: X'd with a lot...

[Nogrod]

I'll rephrase my last post into questions before I go for a while...


Eomer: What were you thinking throwing your vote away at the last minute? You really didn't think there would have been 3 votes coming Inzil's way crossing yours there at the last seconds to make your vote meaningful?

Volo: a) Did you really believe G55 could have gathered the votes to be lynched in the last five minutes? b) Why did you thought you should mention that you were "playing along" with my suspicions of G55? A cover (or even an attempt at framing) perhaps?

Gil & Encai: It looks easily that you just tried to make a vote that would look reasonable enough (so giving something in place of an argument to back your vote) but you didn't try to make a difference by trying to make others see your point. So bored ordos or more sinister ones trying to be careful?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also a question to Eomer: with Skip on 5 and Mac on 4 votes, did you really think voting Zil 1 minute before the DL would make a difference and what would that have been?

I did not think it would make a difference to the end result, no. However, I do believe that every player should vote. Mac seems innocent-ish to me (still) and I was fairly certain Skip was innocent. I was not going to be responsible for pushing Mac into the lead (although I promise you, I have no real problem should the rest of you want to violently lynch him today ).

I suspected Inzil so I put it in writing, as it were. I wouldn't agree that it's 'throwing my vote away', as has been claimed earlier.

Inzil is still top of my list, mostly for what is perhaps a rather unfair 'gut feeling' (he reminds me somewhat of myself as a villain, in writing style) and I am intrigued by certain cases put forward against him today. I'm still surprised that the other suspicious Skip-voter (Wilwa) was innocent (and extremely valuable ) and doubt that they both were innocent.

Need to leave now, so:

++INZILADUN