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Old 10-12-2014, 10:59 PM   #1
Shastanis Althreduin
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There's something strange going on between Mac and Inzil, seemingly. If Agan was killed due to looking like the Seer (I can't find another reason for her to be killed so soon after causing Legate's death, anyway) then I tend to lean towards Mac. Plus he voted me yesterday, the cad!

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Old 10-12-2014, 11:41 PM   #2
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I can't stay awake any longer, and I won't be up before DL, so I'll have to vote now.

For reasons previously given, plus the way he's been extra calm since I called him panicky. I know, that sounds terrible, but just look: I feel like he's tiptoeing around me, and I don't recall innocent!Inzil being one to tiptoe.

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Old 10-13-2014, 12:03 AM   #3
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Guuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuys, I'm really tired and I just want to sleep. It looks like we have four different people with votes. That can't be true, can it?

Doing a quick read through, voting, and then going to bed. Back soon.
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Old 10-13-2014, 12:55 AM   #4
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Man, I didn't miss a whole lot of discussion toDay, and what is here I can't decipher much from at all.

Voting is as follows -
wilwa: LG
Inzil: Nerwen
Mac: LG (2)
Shasta: Mac
Rikae: Inzil

Left to vote are sally, myself, LG, and Nerwen.
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Old 10-13-2014, 12:56 AM   #5
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Oddly specific....

Mac is not allowed to be lynched because he coined the term Aganseer and I know how much Agan will love that. Also I don't find him on the top of my suspicion list (which is most of what I'm going to focus on at the moment because again, very sleepy).


I know this is a stretch, and I may regret bringing it up in the morning, but I want to call attention to this from Wilwa.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuddle Muffin
Slight chance I'll be up early enough to come back, but more than likely I won't be on until Day 3, when I seriously hope to have the time to do more.
Specifying that she won't be back until the next Day seems....well, how would she know she'd be around on the next Day? More importantly, why specify that she'll be back on Day 3, rather than saying she'll be gone for a couple of days? Could she be alerting her pack to an absence this coming Night? She does note that she hopes to have the time to do more, which could be taken as either a desire to participate in discussion or a desire to communicate with her pack. Perhaps just straws, but it's a distinct ping for me at this point. I believe Wilwa would be bold enough to make such a comment, being unable to communicate with her pack any other way at this point, and the specificity of her wording seems tricksy to me.


Mac is also not allowed to be lynched because he said Legate band-tricycle. You are on point today, my friend!


Meanwhile, my Nerwen radar is saying....nothing, which is distinctly unsettling. In my experience, my Nerwen radar always gives off the exact opposite impression, which is to say that I suspect her when she's innocent (especially when she's gifted) and ignore her when she's evil. I'd forgotten she was playing until I came across one of her posts, and I'll also note that she's not done nearly as much saccharine banter with Shasta as I would expect (though perhaps that's due to his own lack of participation?). I don't feel comfortable voting her toDay based solely on this, but it's something I must keep an eye on.


Dun's reaction to toDay's attention makes me wonder what he might be. I feel an innocent Dun would laugh and shrug it off (though the commentary to the wolves at the start of the Day was amusing and seemed typical of him), but he's gone through a range of reactions as the Day has gone on, from panic to straight face to the following comment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dun Dun Dun
Hmm. There's still a distinct lack of activity from some, which is problematic.
Given Wilwa's quoted comment above (which comes not long before Dun's above post) I almost feel like this is some sort of sign of recognition, perhaps even disapproval, toward a semi-absent packmate. I know I'm connecting two "if then" dots, but between Dun's actions toDay and Wilwa's possibly pointed comment, I don't feel like the dots are too far apart.


Currently that makes my top options Wilwa and Dun. I feel Dun is the popular choice toDay, but I'll give it a quick think as I ready for bed and make my decision upon my return.



x'd with the McCobbler (I've missed you, by the way!)
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Old 10-13-2014, 01:02 AM   #6
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++Dun to be done

I find his comments and shifting attitudes toDay too bizarre to ignore. Besides, I'm extra paranoid about him from our last game.

I'm out for the night. Sleep well, my loves.
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Old 10-13-2014, 01:17 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
x'd with the McCobbler (I've missed you, by the way!)
I know, it's been a while. Good to finally be back.

Although your point on wilwa here really seems like a stretch to me. Especially when trying to connect it to Inzil like you've done. Not really a fan.

Speaking of, I don't really agree with the recent Inzil train. He looks more like an ordo to me, albeit a weirdly-acting one. And LG has done nothing to make me suspicious of her that I can see.

Of the people who have votes already, I most suspect Mac. I really don't like his post here, because it looks like trying to sow discontent with nothing much to go on.
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Old 10-13-2014, 01:50 AM   #8
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Although your point on wilwa here really seems like a stretch to me.
I admit it may be far-fetched, but it caught my eye as I was reading the thread and I'd rather make issue of it now and feel silly in the morning than forget about it and have it go unnoticed. That said, I know Wilwa can be that tricksy, but I also know how sleepy I am, which is why I didn't want to act on it without giving it further thought and voted for Dun instead; despite what Agan's death may say of him, he's still acting too suspicious for my tastes.


Why the frell am I still up? I'm not, that's the answer to that. Good night, kiddos.
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Old 10-13-2014, 02:12 AM   #9
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Well, I must to bed. So without further ado

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Old 10-13-2014, 02:30 AM   #10
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If I'm right, the tally looks something like this:

wilwa – Greenie
Inzil – Nerwen
Mac – Greenie (2)
Shasta – Mac
Rikae – Inzil
Sally – Inzil (2)
Cab – Mac (2)

So - three-way tie with two people left to vote, and the first to gain the final number of votes dies, right? Which basically means that the one out of Nerwen and myself who votes first decides the lynch. Which makes it pretty straightforward, really - I know I'm not a wolf, and so even though I'd like to think this over a little longer, read through the posts of both gentlemen and then decide, I don't want to risk the village certainly losing an innocent as opposed to losing someone who at least could be a wolf. So, out of those two, I'm going to go with

++ Macalaure
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Old 10-13-2014, 02:49 AM   #11
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Okay… I think this makes my vote non-effective, whatever I do.
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Old 10-13-2014, 02:49 AM   #12
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So why Mac and not Inzil? Process of elimination, basically. I don't find Inzil particularly suspicious; stuff like yesterDay's suspecting Cab but voting for Mac to get a reaction doesn't strike me as something an Inzilwolf would necessarily do. While Mac might not have been top of my list either, he's at least been sketchier than Inzil. I still think he'd be more involved as a wolf; but his reaction to when I pointed this out was odd, and I'm not quite comfortable with his way of being "fluffy and agreeable" (his own words).


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen
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Old 10-14-2014, 01:16 PM   #13
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Nerwen -
The "Jonathan" quote was apparently from a game where she was a wolf - would a wolf make such a risky joke? I think a Nerwolf would.
A wishy-washy post about Inzil-Mac-Mc. "Might be possible fellows" but "it seems like cub-tactics".
Immediately on Day 2, exclaims "What the heck is going on in this village?", and then explains.
This looks very innocent: a little too innocent. It also is a good way of framing the discussion (if she's a wolf, she may be giving the real reason, and then immediately offering an alternative in order to keep Inzil as a possible suspect).
Analyzes Aganzir at length. In retrospect, lots of text but not much light shed on anything: same conclusions as her previous post and also mentions that Agan could have looked like the wildcard.
Calls Zil "really weird today".
Analyzes Legate. Concludes that Greenie is suspicious.
Doesn't really want to vote for Inzil. Mac and Greenie's reactions to the night kill were suspicious.
An Inzil-lynch was possible, and I could see why a wolf-Nerwen wouldn't want to be in the wagon. Funny, she's the one who started talk about a bluff, too.
Votes for Mac. Can't really conclude anything from that, it was truly pointless.
Day 3 - analyzes McCaber. Concludes Inzil is an ordo, and also possibly Greenie, Sally, Wilwa.

Sally -
"Who do I have to kill this time? "
Looks like any way you slice it, we have a wolf making a wolfy comment in her first post (if I'm right about Greenie and Inzil).
Lots and lots and lots of banter. That's Sally, though.
Day 1 vote for Inzil:
"This might sound silly, but I think he's being louder than he would be as an ordo. His behavior regarding the McPlayers is also a bit unsettling, as has been pointed out, but I am more caught by his volume at this point; I feel an ordo Dun would have been less involved in toDay's discussions (if you can call them discussions). Alas, that's the best hunch I have."
This seems reasonable enough.
"Regarding the possibility of Agan bluffing as seer"
Wait, what? Sally, were you saying Agan was pretending to be a seer who was pretending not to have dreamt of an Inzil-wolf?
Because if so, that's the most bizarre werewolf-theory I've ever heard, and I've heard some weird stuff.


Suspicious of Wilwa for mentioning she'd be back on Day 3, sees it as a possible hint to her pack. Kind of far-fetched. Wolf-on-wolf?
Argues that Inzil could be Wilwa's packmate because he's complaining about lack of participation? That's even more far-fetched. Votes him, though, for his "comments and shifting attitudes toDay".
I don't know how I feel about this. Obviously, I found him suspicious myself yesterDay, but this connection she's trying to make between him and Wilwa is really out there.


Shasta -
Weird comment about Greenie's comment about me. At first I thought he suspected her, but apparently he meant to cast suspicion on me. This "Nah, it's probably nothing. " business is a little creepy. I kind of have the feeling he's trying to use his reputation as an excuse to raise suspicions without committing himself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
There's something strange going on between Mac and Inzil, seemingly. If Agan was killed due to looking like the Seer (I can't find another reason for her to be killed so soon after causing Legate's death, anyway) then I tend to lean towards Mac. Plus he voted me yesterday, the cad!

++Macalaure
Uh... nope, I don't understand the reasoning behind this vote at all. Can you explain, Shasta?

Wilwa -
Day 1, absent.
Day 2 - says the Agan kill makes Inzil look innocent and she doesn't think a bluff is likely, but then says it could have been random and she won't decide Inzil's innocence based on it.
Semi-fishy.
Votes for Greenie by process of elimination. There is no real explanation for anything in this post, as far as I can see.

So for these four, Nerwen and Shasta seem the most wolfish, but I really can't say Wilwa and Sally seem squeaky clean either. I can't be 100% sure about Greenie, but the chance she was a seer dream means I won't risk voting for her toDay. Inzil I'll assume is innocent.

Last edited by Rikae; 10-14-2014 at 01:16 PM. Reason: X'd with Inzil and Shasta.
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Old 10-14-2014, 03:55 PM   #14
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It's outrageously late here so I'm heading to bed, I'll post (and think) properly in the morning. For now, a quick thought -

I assume that the wolves aren't keen on bussing each other toDay since they win if we lynch an innocent. If that is true, then we can also assume that Nerwen and Shasta aren't packmates, and that Rikae isn't packmates with either of them (unless they're planning to pull off an epic Legate-180 later on). I'm not sure how much this helps, but anyway.

Other than that - I'm a bit worried about how carefully non-committal Wilwa's post toDay is. It wouldn't have alarmed me in a normal situation, but on a Day when we lose if we lynch an innocent, the wolves would have good reason to be extra flexible in who they vote for. It looks like she's trying to keep all ends open and not voice an opinion before something definite happens, exactly what a wolf might want to do on a Day like this.

Finally, a question for Nerwen: why Shasta? You might have mentioned it somewhere, but if so I missed it.
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Old 10-14-2014, 05:18 PM   #15
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Silmaril

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post

Other than that - I'm a bit worried about how carefully non-committal Wilwa's post toDay is. It wouldn't have alarmed me in a normal situation, but on a Day when we lose if we lynch an innocent, the wolves would have good reason to be extra flexible in who they vote for. It looks like she's trying to keep all ends open and not voice an opinion before something definite happens, exactly what a wolf might want to do on a Day like this.
My post had that kind of tone because I intended for it to be the first of many contributions today, not my sole contribution, but once again my stupid real life has gotten in the way of my pretend life (I was offered a job interview tomorrow that I had to make very last minute travel plans for, my day has been insane).

The one good thing about RL stuff is I will be up very early now in the morning and can therefore wait to vote and be around for DL. Though we don't want to all make last minute votes either, the wolves will likely be making every attempt to vote as late as possible so they can have control over the outcome. My best suggestion is that we shouldn't spread the votes out too much, try to reach some consensus before voting so the 4 Ordos can maintain some semblance of control by trying their best to all vote the same way. I'm aware that it's not necessarily possible to accomplish this, but we should do our best.

Perhaps since we all have seemed to agree that Inzil is very likely innocent we let him vote first and then the other 3 Ordos agree to vote the same way no matter what? The wolves will then either jump on board or vote elsewhere. If we get an innocent than yes we lose, but if we hit a wolf we might actually have an idea of who else to look at tomorrow based on who didn't want to go along with the plan?
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Old 10-14-2014, 05:36 PM   #16
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Perhaps since we all have seemed to agree that Inzil is very likely innocent we let him vote first and then the other 3 Ordos agree to vote the same way no matter what? The wolves will then either jump on board or vote elsewhere. If we get an innocent than yes we lose, but if we hit a wolf we might actually have an idea of who else to look at tomorrow based on who didn't want to go along with the plan?
In other words, no pressure.

I could possibly vote at DL. I just wouldn't have had much chance to review posts.

At the moment, I'm waffling on who to vote for. I should be able to give things a close look before though.
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Old 10-14-2014, 07:58 PM   #17
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At the moment, innocents outnumber wolves 4-3.

The only way to keep things going to the next Day is if I vote for a wolf and all innocents follow me.

As I said, I could probably get in here in time to make a last minute vote before DL, but I would not have time to do more then give a cursory glance to posts made while I was asleep.

I have it narrowed down to two I think are the likeliest wolves, but it would be nice to have some other input if anyone else is around.
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Old 10-14-2014, 08:05 PM   #18
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Old 10-15-2014, 04:32 AM   #19
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Quote:
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In other words, no pressure.
Yeah, lots to put on you, I know. Hopefully you made a good choice!

++Sally

*crosses fingers*

Edit: x'ed with Inzil
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Old 10-15-2014, 04:50 AM   #20
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Quote:
True, but at this point think it matters, considering the votes. Unless Wilwa appears and all three of her, you, and I vote for Inzil, Sally's getting lynched regardless. And I'm not even certain I want to vote Inzil! I'm just bothered by Rikae's vote and I'm not even sure why - no, wait, actually, I just thought of something. Inzil was the first person to vote; it wasn't necessarily mandatory that she jump on his vote at that point; I could easily be wrong here, but I don't recall Rikae being overly suspicious of Sally then. Given that Inzil could be wrong, even as a probably-dreamt ordo, why jump on his vote that quickly?

Not that it matters at this point, of course, considering the options.
I am worried by Rikae's vote, yes. And also by Sally's, in that, as I said, it would have been a very risky one for a wolf who planned on surviving.
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Old 10-14-2014, 05:24 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
It's outrageously late here so I'm heading to bed, I'll post (and think) properly in the morning. For now, a quick thought -

I assume that the wolves aren't keen on bussing each other toDay since they win if we lynch an innocent.
True, but I would expect at least some token wolf-on-wolfing toDay- you know, just in case the lynch miscarried.

A thought: if indeed neither you nor Zil are wolves, then no wolf has been in real peril yet.

Quote:
Finally, a question for Nerwen: why Shasta? You might have mentioned it somewhere, but if so I missed it.
It's basically just a joke based on the "psychic wolf" thing. In truth Shasta had done so little up to that point that I had no idea about him. Now he's suddenly surfaced on this crucial Day- which could point either way, really.

I don't have time for more now, but will look at people later.
Edit: x'd with Wilwa.
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