Sauron Wins...Then What?

[denethorthefirst]

I think it's very likely that Sauron would try to apply some sort of "scorched earth" policy in the event of an invasion. But he is far, far less powerful than Morgoth. He can't change or damage the geography like his master, he simply is not powerful enough. All the damage that he could inflict would be localized, superficial and relatively temporary (polluted rivers, destroyed forests and the like, maybe attempted genocide). I also think it's very likely that the actual military engagements in the event of an invasion would be rather limited. I guess that the morale of his troops would not be very high (at least after the first crushing defeat): how would his human/orc armies react to the splendor and magnificence of an obviously technically superior highly motivated, experienced and trained high-elven army? His armies deserted him before (after ar-pharazon invaded his empire, although that may have been a ruse ...) and it may happen again. Think of it like the Middle-Earth version of the 2003 invasion of Iraq: his armies put up some incompetent token resistance at first and then either flee or mass surrender, Sauron panicks and decides to hide in the East in some cave but a Maiar task force finds him and drags him out by his beard like Saddam Hussein. The whole conflict may only last a few weeks at most.

[Belegorn]

I would not be too high on the Elves' abilities to deal with Sauron. Remember the 2nd Age. He seemed to basically dominate them. He actually almost overran them had not the Dúnedain saved the day in 1700 S.A. [see Tale of Years, and The History of Galadriel and Celeborn] The only people who were clearly superior to his forces were the Dúnedain. Not even the Nazgûl could stand against them. Even late in the 3rd Age the Witch-king was wary of some of the diminished Dúnedain such as the Steward Boromir, "Boromir was a great captain, and even the Witch-king feared him" [The Stewards]. Sauron himself new he could not hope to beat them with force so he supplicated before the last King of Númenor. I believe it's made clear that Sauron feared the Númenóreans and did not wish to engage them. When Ar-Pharazôn comes note the reaction of Sauron.

Originally Posted by Akallabêth

he perceived that the power and majesty of the Kings of the Sea surpassed all rumour of them, so that he could not trust even the greatest of his servants to withstand them; and he saw not his time yet to work his will with the Dúnedain. And he was crafty, well skilled to gain what he would by subtlety when force might not prevail... Sauron passed over the sea and looked upon the land of Númenor, and on the city of Armenelos in the days of its glory, and he was ASTOUNDED.

My point is that the Dúnedain, at least from my perspective, were a greater force and threat to Sauron than even the High-elves.

[denethorthefirst]

Originally Posted by Belegorn

I would not be too high on the Elves' abilities to deal with Sauron. Remember the 2nd Age. He seemed to basically dominate them. He actually almost overran them had not the Dúnedain saved the day in 1700 S.A. [see Tale of Years, and The History of Galadriel and Celeborn] The only people who were clearly superior to his forces were the Dúnedain. ... My point is that the Dúnedain, at least from my perspective, were a greater force and threat to Sauron than even the High-elves.

But that weren't valinorean Elves! You could make the same Argument that a valinorean invasion against Morgoth must fail because he defeated the Noldor! The defeated Elves of the second Age were small populations of second and third generation exiled Noldor and Sindar. You can't compare the two, and I'm fairly certain that a valinorean high-elven army consisting of Noldor and Vanyar (a lot of them veterans from the war of wrath and other old elves that are almost as powerful as some maiar), equipped with high-quality armor and weapons that were manufactured by the Noldor in Valinor under Aules supervision, and who are led and supported by at least a dozen powerful Maia officers would smash anything that Sauron could muster, even if he had the Ring!

That leaves the moral question: the protectors of the children of iluvatar would have to kill a lot of the children of iluvatar in order to save the children of iluvatar ... messy, and quite the moral dilemma. However, that only applies if Sauron can maintain loyalty, discipline and unit cohesion, and I don't think that's very likely. His orcs will scatter and be hunted down and his human forces will probably mass surrender. That will leave only a small devoted core of a few thousand Uruks, Olog-hai and some fanatical black Numenoreans who will feel obligated to fight for religious reasons, but that will be it.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

That leaves the moral question: the protectors of the children of iluvatar would have to kill a lot of the children of iluvatar in order to save the children of iluvatar ... messy, and quite the moral dilemma. However, that only applies if Sauron can maintain loyalty, discipline and unit cohesion, and I don't think that's very likely. His orcs will scatter and be hunted down and his human forces will probably mass surrender. That will leave only a small devoted core of a few thousand Uruks, Olog-hai and some fanatical black Numenoreans who will feel obligated to fight for religious reasons, but that will be it.

Any compunction about killing Sauron's servants would not be present.
In the First Age War of Wrath, Orcs were nearly exterminated seemingly, and that is not shown in anything but a positive light.

[denethorthefirst]

Yes, the forces of Morgoth during the war of wrath consisted mostly of orcs (and some trolls, dragons, wolves, balrogs) but relatively few humans. No moral problem here, at least from the perspective of Valinor. The moral dilemma of a hypothetical valinorean invasion of a Middle-earth that's ruled by Sauron is that the majority of his armies consists of humans, so the "liberating" elven armies would have to slaughter hundreds of thousands of the people they are supposed to free. That's what Zigur means. But: in my opinion the valinorean army would never have to face that dilemma because most of Saurons human forces would simply mass surrender.

[Ivriniel]

Suaronica - The New Middle Earth



1. Institutions:

Various burn-y things. Ways of making extinct volcanoes alive.
From Fire Crackers (Gandalf's) to burn-y things

Institution of Lots of Smoke
Institution of Lots of Creepy Screams (how to improve on the Nazgul scream).
Institution of Sauronic Prayer (a creepy scream).
Institution of Copulation with Orcs

2. Enslavement

The various chemical, spectral, speci-al, necromantic, physical, and psychological means of maintaining a big over-expanded ego that swells and swells etc -

3. "One Ring" beyond a One Ring to Rule them all and all and all (echo)

Presumably, he was going to need to do something about Valinor, and swell with that lust and greed thing he does (see Tolkien's use of that exact language), so that Valinor as well was a big dust bowl.

But really, not that I have anything against dustbowls. E.g. Nevada Desert.

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

However, that only applies if Sauron can maintain loyalty, discipline and unit cohesion, and I don't think that's very likely. His orcs will scatter and be hunted down and his human forces will probably mass surrender.

I still think if Sauron was wielding the One Ring he'd be able to keep his Orcs and Men in the fight. We know from Morgoth's Ring for instance regarding Sauron's Orcs that "the Orcs of his own trained armies were so completely under his will that they would sacrifice themselves without hesitation at his command." I think what this means is that they fought like this not out of loyalty or devotion but rather almost under mind-control, and I imagine the Ring would enable Sauron to extend such an effect even further among his servants. So I still think it's possible that an invasion from Aman could result in a forced massacre. This is all just speculation on my part though.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

In the First Age War of Wrath, Orcs were nearly exterminated seemingly, and that is not shown in anything but a positive light.

It's interesting that it's also stated in Morgoth's Ring that the law in the Elder Days at least was that Orcs were to be properly treated if they surrendered and sued for mercy, but that they never did (or at least "Few Orcs ever did so [...] and at no time would any Orc treat with any Elf").

It states: "though of necessity, being the fingers of the hand of Morgoth, they must be fought with the utmost severity, they must not be dealt with in their own terms of cruelty and treachery. Captives must not be tormented, not even to discover information for the defence of the homes of Elves and Men. If any Orc surrendered and asked for mercy, they must be granted it, even at cost."
Hmm.
Of course "in the horror of the War it was not always heeded."

[Belegorn]

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

But that weren't valinorean Elves!

Perhaps. Galadriel was the mightiest Elf after Fëanor and she was still there as were others who defected from the Undying Lands. I do not think the Elves of the 2nd Age were pushovers in the least bit. In a 2 on 1 duel between the 2 Kings of Elves and Men versus Sauron it ended in a draw, sort of since Sauron's Ring was not destroyed.

"In the beginning of this Age many of the High Elves still remained. Most of these dwelt in Lindon west of the Ered Luin; but before the building of the Barad-dûr many of the Sindar passed eastward, and some established realms in the forests far away, where their people were mostly Silvan Elves." [RotK, Appendix B]

Also the Elves in Middle-earth were skilled craftsmen. Celebrimbor was Fëanor's grandson and was a great craftsman. The Gwaith-i-Mírdain made the Rings of Power and the Three. They also had the instruction of Sauron who was a Maia of Aulë. In Of the Rings of Power it is said of these Noldor that only the workings of Fëanor surpassed their deeds.

"In Eregion the craftsmen of the Gwaith-i-Mírdain, the People of the Jewel-smiths, surpassed in cunning all that have ever wrought, save only Fëanor himself; and indeed greatest in skill among them was Celebrimbor, son of Curufin, who was estranged from his father and remained in Nargothrond"

It is said in Peoples of Middle-earth that he also came to Middle-earth from Aman. There are indeed Elves still in Middle-earth in the 2nd Age who were from Aman.

If you want to say Elves from Aman in league with Maiar could topple Sauron even if he wore the one I would not disagree. My point is that the Elves alone in the 2nd Age could not match him. I do not think they were lesser Elves than any that would come from Aman. Remember Galadriel was among them and she was not the lone surviving Elf from Aman still in M-E in the 2nd Age.

[Ivriniel]

Had Gandalf failed in his mission,

Originally Posted by Belegorn

Perhaps. Galadriel was the mightiest Elf after Fëanor and she was still there as were others who defected from the Undying Lands. I do not think the Elves of the 2nd Age were pushovers in the least bit. In a 2 on 1 duel between the 2 Kings of Elves and Men versus Sauron it ended in a draw, sort of since Sauron's Ring was not destroyed.

"In the beginning of this Age many of the High Elves still remained. Most of these dwelt in Lindon west of the Ered Luin; but before the building of the Barad-dûr many of the Sindar passed eastward, and some established realms in the forests far away, where their people were mostly Silvan Elves." [RotK, Appendix B]

Also the Elves in Middle-earth were skilled craftsmen. Celebrimbor was Fëanor's grandson and was a great craftsman. The Gwaith-i-Mírdain made the Rings of Power and the Three. They also had the instruction of Sauron who was a Maia of Aulë. In Of the Rings of Power it is said of these Noldor that only the workings of Fëanor surpassed their deeds.

"In Eregion the craftsmen of the Gwaith-i-Mírdain, the People of the Jewel-smiths, surpassed in cunning all that have ever wrought, save only Fëanor himself; and indeed greatest in skill among them was Celebrimbor, son of Curufin, who was estranged from his father and remained in Nargothrond"

It is said in Peoples of Middle-earth that he also came to Middle-earth from Aman. There are indeed Elves still in Middle-earth in the 2nd Age who were from Aman.

If you want to say Elves from Aman in league with Maiar could topple Sauron even if he wore the one I would not disagree. My point is that the Elves alone in the 2nd Age could not match him. I do not think they were lesser Elves than any that would come from Aman. Remember Galadriel was among them and she was not the lone surviving Elf from Aman still in M-E in the 2nd Age.

The fading of the Eldar and passage of Silvan and Eldar on the Straight Road in the Third Age was not likely to have been the tipping point in the balance of power to have caused Gandalf to fail in his mission (back reference to opening post). Though there were some Elves from Aman in Middle Earth at the time of the War of the Ring, it seems that Gandalf's mission was often with the herding or helping of Edain and Numereans in Exile. Although, the folk of Lothlorien, Lindon, Imladris and Morthond do appear in critical moments in the history.

I imagine that Gandalf might have been more likely to fail if, for example, he went to confront the Chief of the Nazgul--the Witch King--on the Battle of the Pelenor (where he turned at the critical moment to another mission, leaving the confrontation to Merry and Eowyn). It is not clear how Gandalf would have gone in that duel.

[Belegorn]

If Frodo died, or lost the Ring to Sauron I do not think Gandalf would have given up. Obviously things would certainly be different and very nearly was. The Nazgûl would be infinitely stronger, "they are only shadows yet of the power and terror they would possess if the Ruling Ring was on their master's hand again" [FotR, A Journey in the Dark] and Sauron would as Gandalf told Frodo have "strength and knowledge to beat down all resistance, break the last defenses, and cover all the lands in a second darkness." [The Shadow of the Past] It would be very tough, however, especially with the Elvish strongholds held by the bearers of the Three since "all that has been wrought with them will be laid bare, and he will be stronger than ever." The One was really malicious when you think about it in terms of it's connection with the other Rings in seeing their workings and the minds of their bearers.

[Belegorn]

There is also this statement by Gandalf to Denethor which I think shows that Gandalf would not have thrown in the towel had Sauron got the Ring back.

Originally Posted by Return of the King; Minas Tirith

all worthy things that are in peril as the world now stands, those are my care. And for my part, I shall not wholly fail of my task, though Gondor should perish, if anything passes through this night that can still grow fair or bear fruit and flower again in days to come. For I also am a steward. Did you not know?

[Faramir Jones]

There is an interesting short story by Harry Turtledove, first published in 1988, called 'After the Last Elf is Dead', the world portrayed bearing a very obvious resemblance to that in LotR. The scenario is where Evil has triumphed over Good, with an interesting result.

Some of that story can be seen online, in a collection of Turtledove's stories in Google Books, Counting Up, Counting Down:

https://books.google.ie/books?id=nnm...20dead&f=false

It's worth a read.

[Zigûr]

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

He can't change or damage the geography like his master, he simply is not powerful enough. All the damage that he could inflict would be localized, superficial and relatively temporary (polluted rivers, destroyed forests and the like, maybe attempted genocide).

Well, Glorfindel did remark that "Sauron can torture and destroy the very hills," so he could probably damage Middle-earth to a reasonable degree, but I think the issue isn't the damage to the landscape but rather the large numbers of Men the Valar would risk having to slay were they to invade Middle-earth. They weren't willing to do it to the Númenóreans. It's true to say that Morgoth had a fair number of Men in his army during the War of Wrath but it seems to be that the population Sauron could draw upon (and indeed would have to given that he didn't have dragons and the like) would be enormous.

Originally Posted by denethorthefirst

I guess that the morale of his troops would not be very high (at least after the first crushing defeat)

It probably depends whether Sauron had recovered the Ring or not. If he had he might have been able to drive his armies to the limit. It's worth noting that the "flight" of his armies at Umbar in the Second Age was deliberate: Sauron wanted to be captured. So presumably he could have made his armies fight the Númenóreans had he so desired (although they seemingly would have lost).