Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Fordim Hedgethistle · 06-04-2005, 06:33 AM

Thanks for validating my own work there TGWBS. Actually, the odds are precisely the same of catching a wolf overall whether by random lot or off a short list, that 0.2% advantage you've found in my system is the result of numbers being rounded off along the way as you calculated.

The advantage to the system I've proposed, to any system for that matter, is that there is a system into which we all, wolves and innocents, will 'fit' -- this seems to me a vast improvement over the current situation in which there are two systems that have us voting in ignorance and the wolves voting in knowledge.

The short list idea was meant to provide us with a way of making the votes meaningful and to avoid consensus; there is no magic solution in choosing a few people to vote for, only better (that is, more reliable) results for us to look at afterward. We need to make each vote count and we need to make everyone vote. Again, we can't let the wolves hide either by casting meaningless votes in a landslide or abstaining.

As to the seer protection idea -- you are right, Phantom, that the plan will in the long run make the seer more visible, but this will happen for wolves and innocents alike. And if the seer does make it to round three (at which point there will be at worst 3 wolves left and 5 innocents) then to kill the seer is to pinpoint him or her for us and give us the identies of 4 of the 8 people (and monsters) in the village: game over for the wolves!

As to my 1 in 50 numbers: there was no mistake in the math, not for this learned lore master, I merely misspoke. What I meant to say was that there is only a 1 in 50 chance of guaranteeing that we will catch a wolf in the first round by coming up with a short list. More boring math that I want to get away from: (3:14) x (2:13) x (1:12) = 6:2184 = 0.00274 (2.7%)

I agree that this is all highly theoretical at this point, however and we need to move toward casting some votes. I for one will hold on to my vote until closer to the deadline only so I can cast it in such a way as to spread the votes around. I'm not afraid of hiding my vote! There is no time anymore for a random selection of nominees, and I admit it was a tricky proposition in the first place, so I will just have to see what happens in the next few hours.

(I will admit here, however, that my suspicions are aroused by those who argue most voluably against our developing a common strategy, as it seems to me -- obviously -- that the wolves are the ones with something to fear from this. I am also going to keep my eye on those who have said much, but committed or ventured little to the discussion.)

As to the seer protection idea, I will leave that for the next round (presuming I surive the lynching and the night!) as we have more important wolves to skin at the moment.

06-04-2005, 06:33 AM	#14
Fordim Hedgethistle Gibbering Gibbet Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Beyond cloud nine Posts: 1,844	Thanks for validating my own work there TGWBS. Actually, the odds are precisely the same of catching a wolf overall whether by random lot or off a short list, that 0.2% advantage you've found in my system is the result of numbers being rounded off along the way as you calculated. The advantage to the system I've proposed, to any system for that matter, is that there is a system into which we all, wolves and innocents, will 'fit' -- this seems to me a vast improvement over the current situation in which there are two systems that have us voting in ignorance and the wolves voting in knowledge. The short list idea was meant to provide us with a way of making the votes meaningful and to avoid consensus; there is no magic solution in choosing a few people to vote for, only better (that is, more reliable) results for us to look at afterward. We need to make each vote count and we need to make everyone vote. Again, we can't let the wolves hide either by casting meaningless votes in a landslide or abstaining. As to the seer protection idea -- you are right, Phantom, that the plan will in the long run make the seer more visible, but this will happen for wolves and innocents alike. And if the seer does make it to round three (at which point there will be at worst 3 wolves left and 5 innocents) then to kill the seer is to pinpoint him or her for us and give us the identies of 4 of the 8 people (and monsters) in the village: game over for the wolves! As to my 1 in 50 numbers: there was no mistake in the math, not for this learned lore master, I merely misspoke. What I meant to say was that there is only a 1 in 50 chance of guaranteeing that we will catch a wolf in the first round by coming up with a short list. More boring math that I want to get away from: (3:14) x (2:13) x (1:12) = 6:2184 = 0.00274 (2.7%) I agree that this is all highly theoretical at this point, however and we need to move toward casting some votes. I for one will hold on to my vote until closer to the deadline only so I can cast it in such a way as to spread the votes around. I'm not afraid of hiding my vote! There is no time anymore for a random selection of nominees, and I admit it was a tricky proposition in the first place, so I will just have to see what happens in the next few hours. (I will admit here, however, that my suspicions are aroused by those who argue most voluably against our developing a common strategy, as it seems to me -- obviously -- that the wolves are the ones with something to fear from this. I am also going to keep my eye on those who have said much, but committed or ventured little to the discussion.) As to the seer protection idea, I will leave that for the next round (presuming I surive the lynching and the night!) as we have more important wolves to skin at the moment. __________________ Scribbling scrabbling.