Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The villagers awoke with a slight spring in their step, after all they had killed a werewolf yesterday. But apprehension was still rife; they guessed that the werewolves had not been idle during the night. Anxiously, they rushed to the Town Hall. They were straightaway surprised by the lack of numbers present.

Four? they questioned. That's not too many. And they waited for longer than usual. The Sun was getting higher in the sky but still no-one joined them. Where were Holbytlass and Azaelia?

The villagers marched off to the cobbler's little house first. There were no signs of a struggle. The front door was locked. They broke the lock, had a quick look around and, seeing nothing out of the ordinary, stepped back outside.

Hmm...

So off to Azaelia's house they went. It was just as small and just as homely. Fitting places really, for two such delightful villagers to live in. But Azaelia's house was now a mess. Even from the outside, it seemed to cry of murder. So inside the four villagers went. And they were met by a spine-chilling sight.

A wolf lay dead and bloodied just in the doorway. It had been shot through the heart with a quite huge arrow, and blood had poured out of the wound for a long time, as the surrounding green carpet was now a very deep dark red.

But at the other end of the floor there was a much more heartbreaking sight. The torso of Azaelia was lying against a door, a shocked expression on her face. Her limbs had been torn off and were nowhere to be seen, but a crossbow lay by her side. She had killed one werewolf just before being ripped apart by the other werewolf, and she had died with honour.

The villagers now realised that Holbytlass was the second werewolf, and that only one remained at large in the village.


Living:

Fordim Hedgethistle
Kuruharan
Oddwen
The Only Real Estel

Dead:

Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - mangled by werewolves on NIGHT 1
Evisse the Blue (Seer) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1
the guy who be short (Villager) - decapitated by werewolves on NIGHT 2
Son of Numenor (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 2
the phantom (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 3
Firefoot (Guardian) - drowned in blood by werewolves on NIGHT 4
The Saucepan Man (Villager) - lynched by villagers on DAY 4
mormegil (Villager) - sacrificed on the kirk by werewolves on NIGHT 5
Shelob (Werewolf) - lynched by villagers on DAY 5
Holbytlass (Werewolf) - slain by the Hunter on NIGHT 6
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Hunter) - ripped apart by a werewolf on NIGHT 6

Score:

Werewolf: 1
Villagers: 3


DAY 6 has started, now that it is about 3:40 PM GMT (that's 10:40 AM EST) and (9:40 AM Central). It will end in 24 hours or sooner if a majority vote is reached by then.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Aha!! Foul fiend Holby!

I had written the following post before seeing that our brave hunter saved us from this wolf. Now read on, fellow innocents, and let's lynch the remaining beast:

Again, dear brethren, if you are reading this, I have survived the night. Once more, in hope of my survival, I have begun this post immediately after the hanging of the wolf.

Kuru, for what it is worth, I no longer think that you are wolf, only an innocent patsy. That is, of course, if you are still alive…

The Only Real Estel and Holbytlass, on the other hand, you are both fuzzy monsters, and clumsy ones at that. Your little charade yesterday of handing over to us your companion has not worked. TORE: your heavy-pawed attempt to save Holby by forcing me to vote for Shelob was about as subtle as a sledgehammer. And Holby, your triumphant crow about your own innocence as you offered up your sacrificial victim rang just as hollow. I’m no fool, I know that even if you lost one wolfish-ally you would still be in charge today. In fact, you were probably hoping that after giving up Shelob you’d have a shot at getting the Cursed Villager to replace her. Too bad that failed…

And I’m also not fooled by your attempt to discredit me: “Look everyone,” I can already hear you saying, “Fordim wanted to vote for Holby, who is clearly innocent because she voted for Shelob. It’s a good thing that TORE and Holby pointed you all in the right direction…Fordim would have led you astray: he must be the wolf!” The fact that I am alive this DAY is demonstrable proof of your strategy…

As I did yesterday, however, I shall allow the wolves to speak for themselves. I have already demonstrated Holby’s guilt, so all that remains is to show up TORE for the monster that he is using his own words.

When the game began, his response to my plans was virtually identical to that of Shelob and Holby:

While I see your point on the short list, Fody, I think that I would also be more for the seer protection idea than the short list. I think anyone that votes for an innocent to be lynched is automatically elevated to the top of everyone's suspect list, though they might not announce it for everyone to hear/see. And pretty much the same goes for anyone that didn't/couldn't vote, although that's sometimes based more on the villager's 'real life' circumstances.

Just like his counterparts, of course, he suddenly decided that he did not like the plan when the other loudmouths turned on it. Just minutes before Holby weighs in on the idea, TORE writes:

edit: I am now split on the seer idea. I do see how it would help the villagers (that seems pretty obvious), but I also see 'short guy's' point about how it could potentially undermine some of the basic guesswork and sleuthing that are involved in the four-letter-word-that-starts-with-'g.'

Having done his wolfish flip-flop, the first targets he names are all loudmouths:

Whether we end up implementing Fordim's plan or not seems to remain to be seen. I'm caught in the middle of it myself (as I've said before). If it is to be a gauge for us to discern werewolves who are reluctant to set it up, we should be at least casting a glance or two in the direct of the guy who be short. He has been rather adament about not liking the changes, so that could be looked upon as suspicious. At the same time I realize that he could have perfectly impeccable motives for not liking the new plan--as I said I myself have reservations but neither do I suspect myself.

As to Mormegil, I think we can be fairly certain that we know absolutely nothing about his innocence or guiltiness. One cannot proclaim him guilty simply because of his profession (one could argue that because my business has fallen on hard times that makes me a desperate man [or wolf], so our choices of employment cannot realy be used against us).

Two of those three were killed by wolves after it became clear that there would emerge no clear consensus to lynch them; and in both cases I was the intended target. tgwbs was killed to stir things up around me; morm was killed so that I could stay alive, allowing TORE and Holby to stage their little “Let’s-rally-round-Fordim-and-prove-our-innocence” dance. But back to TORE’s posts…

As the first DAY wore on, he distances himself from my plans (again, just like Holby – something which The Phantom noted) and begins to focus on a mixture of loudmouths and innocents who were lynched very early on:

then I should be following Saucey's reasoning and vote for Evisse, SoN, or Fordim.

He goes on to vote for Evisse, saying at the time:

If you are indeed innocent my attention will turn to SpM & tp.

Really quite brilliant, I think; I doff my cap. At one fell swoop you vote for an innocent who is already clearly doomed, following the logic – as you are clear to point out – of another innocent. You then state that “if” the innocent is found innocent you will have grounds to suspect two other innocents! And we all remember what happened after this: the loudmouths got out of control and, quel surprise, of the five people you mention in these posts, four are dead within a couple of days… I also note your care in not going after our resident loose cannon Kuru, which was SpM’s one real mistake.

TORE then goes very quiet for almost a full day before putting up a long post in which he details his two theories:

I now wonder, what if both of their sides are wrong? I have gotten two theories into my head that I cannot get out – Saucepan Man, phantom, & SoN are wolves; or Saucepan Man, Fordim, & SoN are wolves.

Again, putting attention on loudmouthed innocents, and not going after the wolves’ patsy Kuru. And he bangs away in this vein for the next while:

I do not think I will vote for phantom because Saucepan's seeming pardon of Fordim has me uneasy and makes me want to substitue Fordim for phantom in my theory (because it would work just as well that way as with the phantom in it)

That night, however, he votes to lynch Sono, and does so at the very last minute. The following DAY he gives us this shocking explanation for having waited so long to vote, but only after another long silence which he broke only once to explain that he would have to delay answering the question put forth about the lateness of his vote:

Yes Fordim, you did prevent me from tying things yesterday. I had hoped for a double lynching. Yes, I said that right. And yes, I am going to get some strange looks for admitting this, but here my reasoning. I was 90% sure of both SoN's & SpM's guilt, so I saw a great opportunity to lynch two wolves with one noose, especially since we are beginning to run out of time. I was hoping that Fordim would vote for Sauce and I could then tie it, but when he didn't, I saw there was little reason for me to hold my vote any longer.

Frankly, I’m ashamed that I did not see this for the self-serving claptrap that it was at the time and zero in on this fiendishly clever wolf a lot earlier…

By this point, TORE has hit his stride and he continues on with the same basic strategy. Sometimes he supports The Phantom, sometimes he supports The Saucepan Man; he stops going after Kuru – his patsy – and I – whose innocence is largely now accepted, and concentrates entirely on keeping everyone’s attention on the two biggest loudmouths.

And again he is one of the last to vote, this time for Saucy, predicting at the time:

...with Saucey probably going to vote for phantom & Shelob probably going to vote for Saucey.

Again, I doff my cap: brilliant! “Hey, he based his whole voting strategy on the assumption that Shelob would vote for Sauce and she didn’t! They clearly can’t both be wolves!”

And just in case you missed it, TORE is careful to point it out just a few posts later;

I am somewhat suprised that Shelob has voted the way that she has, especially given that she voted for Saucepan Man last DAY…If Shelob voted for Sauce last time I would expect her to follow through with it this time...unless she isn't following through because Sauce would be gone if she voted for him this time.

The next day, in a long post(279), TORE begins by saying that there’s merit to my quiet wolf theory, entertains for a moment that I might be right about Shelob and Holby and then goes on to incriminate Sauce and me. This same strategy is present in all his posts through the next DAY…

And I also hear you about specific statements, that is why I am trying to chew on SoN's broader theory of you (SpM) & Fordim - with the help of some specific statements.

No mention of the quiet wolves, of course, and no dangerous gestures toward the patsy Kuru. It all culminated, of course, with his vote to lynch Sauce, this time actually past the voting deadline…

Which brings me back to the events of the last DAY, which I have already commented on above. The only thing that needs to be mentioned here is that on every DAY, The Only Real Estel was either the very last, or among the very last villagers to vote. Not so yesterday. Yesterday, he could not vote fast enough. Yesterday, he was the first to cast a vote, thus forcing my hand. This cunning wolf – who, throughout the game always wanted to “wait and see” to “weigh his options” – chose to cast the first vote on the one DAY on which casting the first vote determines the outcome of the vote.

Ladies and Gentlemen, may I present to you the final two wolves:

Holbytlass, and The Only Real Estel. I would suggest we lynch them in that order.

[Kuruharan]

This has been a strange ga...I mean village.

I'm going to wait and see what Estel has to say for himself before posting any theories. Perhaps Oddwen would also have something to say.

(Has anybody else noticed that when I play the village is reduced to a ghost town or at least always grinds out to the very last couple of people? )

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

To my fellow Innocents, Oddwen and Kuru:

Victory is in our grasp. As a follow-up to my long post I wanted to clarify a couple of points. As I said above, I wrote that post during the NIGHT not knowing, of course, that the wolves would get our hunter (praise her with great praise!!) and that she would take one of them down. This has changed things somewhat.

First, I find it impossible to deny TORE's guilt knowing that Holby was a wolf. It was only his sudden vote for Shelob yesterday that saved Holby. The connections that I found between his voting and posting strategy and hers now makes it a lock.

A special note to Kuru: as I have said twice now, I wrote my above post during the NIGHT and before our hunter (praise her with great praise) brought down Holby (clever wolf). At that time I thought we would be dealing with two wolves today, and I deemed it in my own interest to portray you in a poor light as the "patsy". I did this in anticipation of their next move, which would have been to get Oddwen and I to vote for you. With me apparently "on their side" in the Shelob vote they would have figured they could get me to vote for you next...and by painting you as the "patsy" I was hoping to given them enough room in my argument to try and argue that your "patsy" behaviour was clear evidence fo wolfishness, and thus try to shift my vote away from them and toward you. I was going to use this attempt to prove demonstrably that they were the wolves. But now, it is no longer needed...

To be clear, then: I don't think of you as their patsy, only as their unwilling dupe -- just as I have been their unwilling dupe, and as were all the loudmouths, may they rest in peace.

Much as I would like to lynch TORE immediately and be done with it, I will force myself to hold off on voting until I have seen the others post. It will also be nice watching that wolf try to wriggle and squirm his way out of the noose.

All praise our great hunter Azaelia! Priase her with great praise!!

[The Only Real Estel]

Much as changed since I last posted .
I am afraid that I have to leave for a previous engagment, which Fordim will no doubt find suspicious.

I will post again tonight.

[Oddwen]

Well, this is a turn of events and no mistake.

If we still had a bard, I would ask him to sing now the lay of "No-limbed Zali and the Werewolf of Doom", but I guess I can't. Eglerio! (or is that "praise them"?)

TORE has been niggling on my suspicions of late - Fordim, thank you for your post(s) that have cemented my suspicions.

I won't be on until tomorrow, so I must vote now -

++The Only Real Estel

[Kuruharan]

I was going to apologize for my absence today. There has been a more than adequate amount of lightning about my abode. (There was a cold front parked literally just next to my place. Storms were firing up over and over again just as soon as the last batch had moved off. Most annoying.)

However, I see Estel has not replied in detail yet, so I'll be polite and wait for him.

Where's Oddwen got off to?

(Fordim: It’s okay. )

EDIT: Never mind, cross posted with Oddwen. (As seems to be getting to be my usual habit.)

[The Only Real Estel]

Just a note, I am working on a post but have an absurd 10 minutes time limit that is out of my control . Just so you know I am here & typing...