Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[the phantom]

if somebody volunteers to be slain, then we GUARANTEE that we slaughter an innocent!

We are nearly guaranteed the slaughter of an innocent anyway, it's just that with my plan we won't accidentally kill the seer or somebody like that.

My plan is basically to preserve our gifted villagers for as long as possible. The wolves do not have a very high probability of selecting the seer during the night, and so, if we kill someone who for sure isn't the seer the first two days, then the seer is very likely to survive until day three.

And if the seer survives until day three, he/she will have a nice bit of information for us to use. And if the guardian is still alive as well, the seer will be able to come right out and declare himself/herself and request the guardian's protection thus giving us another dream to base our accusations on.

Our main purpose should be to keep the seer alive until at least day three or four. If we can do that, then there are ways of flushing the wolves out even if the seer has not had any successful dreams.

And honestly, with the population advantage that we currently have, lynching a for-sure innocent today and tomorrow will only take us down to a 10 to 3 advantage, which is where some towns who have been plagued by wolves start off at the beginning. The difference between those towns and ours, though, would be that our seer will have had three dreams to work with.

Numerically, my idea makes sense.

The primary obstacle to the plan is whether or not anyone will volunteer.