Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

If the number of proven innocents ever equals the number of wolves then the villagers automatically win if they behave correctly.

I don't expect you to see how that works. It's a bit complicated and tough to figure out at first, but it's true.

Just because I don't like your plan doesn't mean that I don't understand it, or that I don't think it has a number of merits. So don't bother with the condescending and infuriating "I don't expect you to understand" and the "typical seventeen year old" stuff.

Clarify this part of it for me: the Seer (or whoever else it is in your head) knows that these three are innocent. How does he or she convey this information to the rest of the innocents without the wolves finding out also?

The chance of the seer or Ranger getting killed during the night will not be affected by who we kill today

Sure it will, math-boy. If we take one innocent out of the pool, then there are less people for the wolves to kill, thereby increasing their chance of randomly selecting someone we want to keep. If you need smaller numbers, here are some.

There are three fish in the pond, a blue fish, a red fish, and an orange fish. The fisherman is guaranteed to catch one. He has a 1:3 chance of catching the blue fish. If we take out the orange fish and leave it on the shore to die or something equally gross, then there are only two fish left. It means that the fisherman now has a 1:2 chance of getting the blue fish. Capiche?