Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Fea

she (spawn) hadn't posted very often. Thrice, to be exact. She made comments on what was going on, and she made certain that she was actually there, but at the same time, she was not contributing personal opinions. That makes me nervous.

As odd as it may sound I don't have time to hang online 24/7. I post when I'm available to post and that's it. I make comments about what's going on simply to clarify my own thoughts. While you "loudmouths" fill pages with your quarrel, I want to sum up what I feel is essential.

I'm more comfortable around loudmouths

Yeah, yeah, birds of the same feather flock together


And here are some "personal opinions" for you all.

Azaelia opposed phantom's plan (post #60). She said that she doesn't think that tp's a werewolf, though. Later Azaelia said that "you (phantom) seem to be suspicious of me".
Wether Azaelia's death is a frame up for turning us against phantom (as many of you have mentioned) or then somebody's double bluffing... who? -I haven't figured that out yet but somehow I don't find phantom very suspicious.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Celuien, spawn, Esgallhugwen, Evisse, Firefoot, Lalaith and Hookbill seem to have succeeded in turning the focus away from themselves. Hmmm . . .

I don't know about the others but in my case this is as it should be. Sure the focus should be on the wolves rather than innocent villagers. Of course, if you lynch me then we can as well follow phantom's plan.

I'm not as suspicious of Saurreg as I was earlier. Somehow I sympathize with his deadline confusion.

EDIT: Could I possibly be any slower writer?!

EDIT2:

Here are the votes thus far (hope I didn't miss anyone):
Fea: lmp
Nilp: Oddwen
Saurreg: Eomer
Hookbill: Eomer
Anguirel: phantom
Eomer: phantom
Evisse: Lalaith

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Evisse voted for Lalaith.

[Celuien]

Current vote count: Eomer and Phantom tied at two votes each, one for Oddwen and one for lmp.

At this point, it looks like either Eomer or Phantom will be the victim today. Neither option appeals to me, but I don't think anyone else is going to garner enough votes for a lynching. I've decided against voting for Saurreg today because even though I'm not totally satisified with his defense, I'm no longer certain enough to cast my vote. Even if I did vote for him, I don't think the rest of the village would go along.

Nilp's repeated confessions look like he's following through with my idea that a wolf could use volunteering as a method of hiding out in the open. Unfortunately, I don't see enough evidence to vote for him either.

I'd also like to point out that Oddwen is going to have to stop in on the debate soon or face becoming our automatic lynchee. I hope that she comes - this silence is making me very uneasy. I can't decide if her non-appearance to due to RL, or a wolf strategy. If Oddwen is a wolf, she could be avoiding the proceedings to prevent our gathering enough suspicion to want to vote for her and then stepping in at the last minute to prevent the automatic clause from coming into effect. Last minute votes could also be a useful strategy to cause tied votes or to rescue a wolf.

I think I've made up my mind. Oddwen has made me uneasy enough by silence to bring back my suspicions from yesterday. I really, really do not want to vote for Eomer or Phantom. My other suspect, Saurreg, is probably not going to be lynched even if I do vote for him, nor would his death as a wolf give me very much information. There is a chance that since Oddwen has a vote from Nilp that we can lynch her today. Even if she's innocent,voting for her could avert a double-lynching of an innocent if she doesn't come in before the deadline. And I want to test my theory on [a]Azaelia's[/b] death. FIanlly, if she is a wolf, I'll really be wondering about Nilp on the basis of separting himself from Oddwen by his vote and the repeated confessions.

++ODDWEN (hoping this doesn't become a tie).

EDIT: just saw spawn's edit for the vote count. I'm such a slow typer...

[Firefoot]

I seem to have attracted a lot of suspicion while I've been asleep, from Saurreg in particular. I must say that this feels very much like a knee-jerk reaction. Whereas phantom's arguments actually are based on such knowledge as we have, Saurreg's tend to follow this pattern:

Someone else has already pointed out that footie voted for me the last round and am leaning towards me again. She herself admitted that she only voted for me because they was no obvious target at all- a stab in the dark if you like and all because of my post last night (which I have explained myself). Now even before I have posted for this round, she has already chosen to make me her target. I do not know why she would do so even though many of the villagers have not even posted yet. Sounds pretty vindictive to me.

For one thing, did you read my last post? I stated pretty implicitly that I was not leaning towards anyone at the moment, and in an earlier post I said that I wanted to hear what you (and some others) wanted to say before passing judgment. Yes, I find myself suspicious of you, and you are doing nothing to dispel those suspicions (though I do accept your reason for not voting yesterday. My suspicions are no longer based on that). However, you are not my 'target.' I seem to be yours, though, for the mere reason that I voted for and "passed judgment" on you. And, please, don't call me "footie." Nothing against you, there, just commenting.

I am still uneasy with all this voting for Eomer and phantom, for similar reasons as Celuien stated:

I honestly believe that lynching Eomer is a mistake. The only evidence against him is the now notorious slip from day 1 and the phantom's theory that he is involved in a frame-up connected to the death of Azaelia. But Azaelia's death didn't particularly cast suspicion on the phantom more than it could have been used against anyone else.

I don't particularly think that the phantom is a wolf either. The wolves wouldn't pick him simply because he generates so much controversy, whether he looks suspicious or not, that it's easy for them to hide in the background.

So, that being said, I will cast my vote for ++ODDWEN. I think she is more likely to be a wolf than either Eomer or phantom.

[the phantom]

Well- no matter who gets lynched today, this will definitely go down as one of the most fascinating/entertaining rounds of voting ever.

One thing that I am wondering about- why did Fea vote for lmp over Eomer? She voted for Eomer yesterday so why didn't she do it again?

Perhaps she only voted for him on day one because she knew that he was waiting to break the tie with his vote and that he would not actually die. In other words, it was an opportunity for a wolf to vote for another wolf when the voting still appeared to be "undecided".

Where as today, Fea thought that her vote might actually end up tipping the scales, so she picked a third person to vote for rather than her wolf friend or his primary opponent.

Not that all that's necessarily true. Just a theory.

If I know that you are both innocent, it is utterly ridiculous for Werewolf-Eomer to assume that you two are the Shirrifs because of that one tiny comment.

Why? Wouldn't that be exaxctly the way the Sheriffs would point to themselves?

And just notice the desparate wolves helping each other out. I know the phantom's next move, the one he makes when my striking corpse is floating in the sea; he will turn on his wolf ally.

First, I am not a wolf.

Second, I am not planning on turning on Saurreg.

You might as well have offered yourself up, ol' boy.

I have offered myself up somewhat- but to the wolves! Not to the village as a lynching suspect!

I'll point this out again too: the phantom, if innocent, will not last long.

Wrong. If I am right about you then I will likely die tonight, that is true, but if I am wrong about you then there is no way the wolves will kill me tonight since they will know that the village will be ready to lynch me the following day.

And before anyone points it out again; yes, there is a good chance that the phantom is a gifted villager.

I think you are saying that to cover yourself.

You are hoping I am gifted and then when I turn out to be you will say "Hey, guys, don't blame me- I did say I was worried he might be a gifted villager, after all. Sorry 'bout that, phantom."

I maintain that we should; and that the phantom's scheme of "voluntary lynching" was nothing less than an intimation to murder or suicide

For a man of the law you don't have a very good head for such things.

I seem to recall a story of one who was without sin who offered himself up for the good of the people.

Did he sin in doing so?

No, that was heroism.

I was asking someone to be a hero, yesterday.

And as you can see from the lynching yesterday in which we killed our valuable ranger, the villagers should have adopted my plan.

I shall, therefore, vote that ++the phantom (hereinafter called "the condemned") be hanged by the neck until he is dead. The law has spoken.

What a pity that "the law" is so very wrong.

And now there appears to be a three way tie between Eomer, Oddwen, and our arrogant healer.

This is not exactly what I expected.

At least more votes are getting cast this time. We will certainly have more to examine tomorrow than we did today.

If you are innocent, Eomer, then sorry but it was just your bad fortune that you went after me today. Since last night I have had it in my head that the wolves would only leave me alive if they were going to try and lynch me today, and you stepped right into my prediction, so I hope you don't blame me.

Either you are a wolf or you just have awful timing.

But you shouldn't have been going after me in the first place. There is a very obvious reason why, and I am sure that at least a couple of my fellow villagers have spotted it.

Are you unlucky- or are you a wolf?

I suggest that we find out.

+ + Eomer

[Saurreg]

Friend Phantom remains true! How can anyone doubt his innocence (or even mine)? Forgive me if I'm wrong but if he was a cunning and scheming werewolf, would he have remained steadfast and honorable to the very end? Sticking to his point of view? He would have done exactly what Eomer has predicted and waited to the very end to point a finger at me. But here he is, marking up and confirming his choice even when any shift in balance might happen.

There are fifteen villagers left and seven voted before Phantom cast his. With the odds increasingly stacked against him, why would he not have waited until the next seven votes are cast or when the dateline is reached before making a gambit to save his own skin?

*points at Eomer*

False charlatan! Thy doom is near!

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Oooh, its hoting up! It seems, at time of writing, to be a three-way tie, Eomer, Phantom and Oddwen. That's odd *groan*, the case against Oddwen is interesting, although I am less suspicious at the moment, this could grow depending on how today's votes go. I'll be watching carefully.

Just to update spawn's list; this is how it stands...

Fea: lmp
Nilp: Oddwen
Saurreg: Eomer
Hookbill: Eomer
Anguirel: phantom
Eomer: phantom
Evisse: Lalaith
Celuien: Oddwen
the phantom: Eomer
Firefoot: Oddwen

Leading (or losing?) people:
Eomer (3 votes)
Oddwen (3 Votes)
Phantom(2 Votes)
LMP (1 vote)
Lalaith (1 Vote)

As the returning officer I... er... sorry, wrong poles.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

In answer to Saurreg's question, the phantom really wants me out of this game. He also thinks it likely that, out of the remaining villagers, more will vote for I than Oddwen. And this attack on Oddwen seems mightily strange to me. Don't be surprised that the phantom voted for me, even though there be a couple of hours left.

I think finding the Shirriffs will be much harder than finding the wolves. We all give each other nice little comments here and there.

Also phantom, I am not wrong about your status as dead man walking. If the werewolves don't kill you tonite because they think the villagers will lynch you tomorrow.........then the villagers will lynch you tomorrow and you will be dead.

Ladies and gentlemen, the phantom will not last many more days. He will die soon. He is more likely to be a werewolf than any other villager. He is also more likely to be a gifted villager than any other villager. It's worth taking the chance, especially because Death is on his doorstep anyway.

Also, the phantom is utterly correct in saying that I am inserting a get-out clause in my contract. I do think there is a good chance he is a gifted villager. But I hope that everyone can see that his death is inevitable, and the sooner it happens the sooner this confusion shall be cleared.

I'll say right now that I won't be sorry if he turns out to be innocent. He himself has given everyone reasons to be suspicious of him. He is the most sensible choice to lynch. It's not like Kath, who did not really offer any good reason for us to lynch her, and for whom I feel terribly sorry.


Sorry for yammering on and on. I do agree with the phantom on this: that today's voting and debate has been extraordinarily fun and frantic. I just hope it proves useful in the end.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

In answer to Saurreg's question, the phantom really wants me out of this game. He also thinks it likely that, out of the remaining villagers, more will vote for I than Oddwen. And this attack on Oddwen seems mightily strange to me. Don't be surprised that the phantom voted for me, even though there be a couple of hours left.

Well, as I said, the main reason I voted for Oddwen is that I don't think you're a werewolf and am also unsure about Phantom. Plus, she's a prime candidate for an automatic lynching right now and I'd rather vote for an innocent (if she is innocent, which I'm not sure of) who's out anyway for not saying much than a possible innocent who has a chance to stay in, if you follow me. One lynching is better than two from the villager's population advantage standpoint.

[Saurreg]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

In answer to Saurreg's question, the phantom really wants me out of this game. He also thinks it likely that, out of the remaining villagers, more will vote for I than Oddwen. And this attack on Oddwen seems mightily strange to me. Don't be surprised that the phantom voted for me, even though there be a couple of hours left.

Presumption is dangerous and I do not think it is The Phantom's way. Not especially when there were seven to be made. I doubt anyone here would want gamble on such odds.

If you garner more votes then that is because you have made yourself too great a suspect to be ignored.

I also question the rationale behind Oddwen's votes (i.e votes against her). In her post she pointed out that the Phantom's plan had both an advantage and also a flaw. She then questioned if the method could also be adopted for latter stages.

Interesting.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

So...you're most suspicious of the people who get the most votes?

No, what I meant was which way you voted. If you'd voted Eomer or phantom, I'd be a little less suspicious... but now seeing who you did vote for, my whole theories of who is a wear-wolf and who isn't has been a little shaken. So if you are a w-w, I take my hat off to you.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

I'm suspicious of almost everyone which is rather frustrating. Eleven people have voted for six different villagers now. I'm beginning to think that the wolves aren't that "stupid" (well, no offense) anyway after causing this kind of shattered voting results.

There's a funny "I'm a martyr" flavour in Nilp's sayings not to mention that "I am a werewolf but don't take me seriously" statement. It may have been a joke as he says but to me it looked like a sure way to try to appear innocent.

Why does Eomer keep repeating that phantom won't last long? I'm not sure where he's trying to get but I find it odd. He has had some reasonable points, though.

I don't want a tie between any villagers. Since I don't have any certain information about who's guilty and who's not my vote is based on two things: Who's posts and actions I find most odd and how can I assure you that I'm not a werewolf (and don't you dare lynch me just for saying this for I think no-one wants to look quilty if they're pure as the wind driven snow )

Now, should I vote for Saurreg or Eomer. I'm willing to give Nilp another day because he might very well be just toying with the "kill me" stuff. Saurreg doesn't have any votes yet but obviously there are some others besides me who think he's suspicious. Eomer for one has three votes already. Maybe I should just start using the good old voting method: s/he just confused me, let's kill him/her! (Only kidding)

After reading all your arguments over and over again I'm beginning to lean towards voting for Eomer. That said... ++ EOMER

[Oddwen]

A-ha! So a body's only able to make one post and you're afraid of her? Hmph.

To clarify my last (and only) statement, I merely meant that the phantom's plan didn't have a following and was not likely to be picked up on that day, and I was wondering if it could be implemented later and if it would be profitable for the villagers.

I can't decide if her non-appearance to due to RL, or a wolf strategy.

RL, my dear Celly, unfortunate RL.

I also find your "stab-in-the-dark" theory suspicious.

And Lé Hookbill -

although I am less suspicious at the moment, this could grow depending on how today's votes go

So...you're most suspicious of the people who get the most votes?

And oooh, Zali's death may have been perpetrated by dumb wolves...that can only mean...hang the village idiot!


And something else. Firefoot was concerned about Nilp's vastly different timezone, and Nilp was grateful. Was Ff perhaps concerned because Nilp has had trouble participating in Werewolfery Counsel? Though that could mean that they are the Sherriffs.
Hmmmmmmmmm. Perhaps Nilp only volunteered yesterday because he knew that the Phantom's plan wouldn't go, and Nilp would sound like the "hero". Wouldn't you just loooooooove to be the hero, Nilpsie?
His insistence could be true...though would Adam and Alice give him any peace if he was telling the truth?


And Saurreg's last post seems to point that he and the Phantom are in cahoots...on whose side, I don't know. That's how it seems to me, don't hurt me Phantom *whimper*

Edit just saw Celuien's post: So...you're wasting a vote on someone who you think will be killed anyway? I find the attack against me indeed strange, and thee unsettling.

++CELUIEN

[Oddwen]

Originally Posted by Me

I also find your "stab-in-the-dark" theory suspicious.

What I meant was that I found your "stab-in-the-dark" against me yesterday rather suspicious - if you were an unwiser wolf you doubtless would have gone for Ang or Esgall who were no-shows yesterday, but you went for a side-show instead. Your insistence upon me today seems to point towards wanting folks to think that you don't change horses in the middle of the stream.

Also - if I make it through to tomorrow, things are looking in RL that I won't be able to post Saturday.

Edit - Hookbill:

If you'd voted Eomer or phantom, I'd be a little less suspicious...

If I jumped on the bandwagon, you mean?

So if you are a w-w, I take my hat off to you.

So that I can get to your neck easier? You are too kind.

[Saurreg]

At this point of time, I find Oddwen... quite innocent.

I shall wait and see the other votes.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Oddwen

What I meant was that I found your "stab-in-the-dark" against me yesterday rather suspicious - if you were an unwiser wolf you doubtless would have gone for Ang or Esgall who were no-shows yesterday, but you went for a side-show instead. Your insistence upon me today seems to point towards wanting folks to think that you don't change horses in the middle of the stream.

Also - if I make it through to tomorrow, things are looking so that I won't be here.

Well, if I'm wrong, I truely apologize. But really, my vote is not a matter of keeping the village from thinking I'm changing horses. I very nearly decided to go for Saurreg today, but I wanted to see how the theories played out and this seemed like the best way to test it.

To clarify, by not voting for Eomer or Phantom, I needed to pick someone who looked able to snatch away a majority and I thought that a possible no-show who had a vote already and *could* possibly get a majorty would be a better way to try and stop a phantom, Eomer, Oddwen triple-lynching than going for someone unlikely to get any votes. Not a wasted vote by going for someone I thought would die anyway, but a way to put a majority to someone who would die anyway to keep us from losing two villagers instead of one.

I realize I look pretty suspicious now, but I genuinely voted in the way I hoped would help the village most, even if my reasoning turns out to be horribly wrong.