Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[Saurreg]

So our Seer is dead. Rest well Anguriel - you would be missed.

As of now I should explain why a deal was made with Anguriel. In my first post of last round, I mentioned that our seer was pretty-much ineffectual. This promptly led Anguriel storming in and casting his vote for Hookbill in his first post. He then made the following quote in reply to my query;

I can either say "There are some things that great men do that they wish to go unobserved" and then be turned into mince overnight.

I could be mistakened but I do believe that was his way of trying to tell me that he was the seer.

With a still-large population of villagers to go by, I thought correctly that I could allow myself to follow his lead. Hence in the deal I wanted a double lynch and also for him to name his other suspects. The second lynching was a provision in the case that before last round started, he had asked already and knew whom the other lycan was other than Hookbill. I wanted him to name his other suspects for similar reasons also.

Anguriel did not keep his part of the deal - that led me to believe that he was not successful in his nightly missions.

Hence with a few hours to spare before the deadline, I asked him to list those whom he thought were innocent. I have reason to believe that he has made four inquries, found out that they were innocent and revealed some of them in his reply,

Alright.

Celuien is certainly not a werewolf, due to conduct, voting reactions, style, emotional response, yada yada yada.

Saurreg, you are of course the remaining obsolete Shirriff.

Lalaith I could still be wrong about, which would be irritating. But I'm genuinely taken in by her mathematical hopelessness and apparent honesty, not to mention the entente cordiale we seem to have formed.

LMP is a suspect-although our dear Artist has now let go of him abruptly, as a leech lets go of a wound...which puts Fea in the running again.

Firefoot is probably on our side and gifted, but could also be a werewolf, traitorously turning on the doomed Hookbill...

And is Evisse's distinct refusal to see the wood for the trees as suspicious as it seems to me? I suspected her a while back...

I hereby submit that from the list of the seer, that Celuien and Lalaith are innocent.

Our suspects now boil down to:

Evisse the Blue
Feanor of the Peredhil
littlemanpoet
Firefoot

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

You can kill me if you want, but please, kill Evisse first. If she is proven innocent, I'll kill myself, just to make life easier for you.

[Saurreg]

Unfortunately the rules of the game states that only those whom are accused stand a chance of dying. Suicide via dramatic post is irrelevant unless you care to put double crosses before your name and bold the entry.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

The depressing thing is that I'm currently so convinced that I'd actually do it tomorrow, just to keep my word.

[Evisse the Blue]

I'm very sorry, Anguirel...for what it's worth. If it comforts you, though I doubt it will, wherever you are, I'll soon be made to pay for my mistake, by the looks of it.

I kind of 'predicted' that you'll be against me today.

Think a little, though, what kind of lunatic werewolf - knowing she is the last, would be so transparent yesterday as to accuse Anguirel, after Hookbill's death was decided? But if you decide to lynch me just to be rewarded with the certainty of my innocence, I won't make too much of a fuss to stop it. I realize I have it coming for being so wrong in my remarks about Anguirel. And even if an innocent is lynched today, the villagers still have the numerical advantage needed to win, if they use what evidence they have wisely.

But, even if Anguirel protected Lalaith, I still cannot let go of my suspicions against her. Every action of hers (and by actions I mean votes) points more or less towards her guilt: it could be mischance or it could be sneakiness, especially since after reading her excellently composed posts I always tend to give her the benefit of the doubt. Notice, Saurreg, that even Anguirel's last words about her were no more of a hunch than ours are.

On the other hand, it could well be that either Feanor or LMP is the last remaining wolf.

I am very hesitant to make any judgements right now, because my recent failure in judgement is still fresh in my mind.

I want to remind you though, that I was right at least in suspecting Esga (though at that moment it was overlooked) and I voted for Hookbill when he should have been lynched, on Day 3. I also did not vote for innocents at the time when the two wolves we are certain of were busy blending in and creating ties.

[Saurreg]

Originally Posted by Evisse the Blue

Think a little, though, what kind of lunatic werewolf - knowing she is the last, would be so transparent yesterday as to accuse Anguirel, after Hookbill's death was decided? But if you decide to lynch me just to be rewarded with the certainty of my innocence, I won't make too much of a fuss to stop it. I realize I have it coming for being so wrong in my remarks about Anguirel. And even if an innocent is lynched today, the villagers still have the numerical advantage needed to win, if they use what evidence they have wisely.

Quite right. If we go by my dual theory of werewolf voting behaviour, I'd say the last wolf voted for Hookbill to save its own skin. Look for the votes there. Signs such as sudden reversals in belief, voting patterns or just plain too-good-to-be-true posts explaining the rationale behind the votes may yield alot.

But, even if Anguirel protected Lalaith, I still cannot let go of my suspicions against her. Every action of hers (and by actions I mean votes) points more or less towards her guilt: it could be mischance or it could be sneakiness, especially since after reading her excellently composed posts I always tend to give her the benefit of the doubt. Notice, Saurreg, that even Anguirel's last words about her were no more of a hunch than ours are.

There was really an entente between them. I somehow doubt that no matter how cunning it was, our last lycan would not place itself in such a risky position. Werewolves would usually try to stay involved but not form quasi-long term alliances or partnerships

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Day One: absent
Day Two: Lalaith
Day Three: Hookbill

[Saurreg]

Littlemanpoet also suspected what I suspected - that Anguriel was the seer.

Whether the realization came from a human or werewolf perspective remains to be seen.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Saurreg, don't worry about LMP right now. He can be dealt with if we're wrong about Evisse, but I feel that it's very important that we take care of her first.

[Saurreg]

The cursed villager still walks among us and I fear that if we miss today, we will end up with two werewolves tomorrow.

[Firefoot]

Those Ang believed innocent without a doubt now have *'s around their names.

Day 4

Hookbill - 5 (Anguirel, *Saurreg*, lmp, *Celuien*, Lalaith)
lmp - 1 (Fea)

Did not vote: Evisse, Firefoot

Voting of:
Day 3
Day 2
Day 1

I am in agreement that Evisse is probably our third wolf. As a rule, when she votes, she has voted late when the outcome of the voting was pretty much decided. Because of this, it would make sense for her to vote for Hookbill on Day 3, but abstain on Day 4 (indeed, giving every possible reason not to vote for him).

Saurreg, we don't know if we still have the Cursed villager or not. If the cursed villager was lynched, we wouldn't know it. All we would know is that we lynched a villager - therefore it could have been Oddwen, Nilpaurion, or Eomer. We don't know. (It says so in TGWBS's first post.)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++EVISSE

For reasons already stated, and at this time, because I have to leave. I hope you all see my reasoning (which, quite honestly, is actually Anguirel's reasoning) and, because it's not my own, take it more seriously than you would otherwise.

[Lalaith]

Lmp , are you a politician as well as a butcher? Your talent for quoting out of context certainly points that way....allow me to repost the rest of what I said.

I know some of you have pointed out that Anguirel didn't unequivocally back me in his last post. To this I would reply that I think he was trying to leave a bit of doubt, for a slim chance of being left uneaten last night.
I don't think he would have risked voting for Nilp to save me, instead of Hookbill who he knew for sure was a wolf, if he hadn't been sure I was innocent.

Look, I want the villagers to win and so should anyone else who really is a villager. Whoever we lynch, it isn't personal. The logical reason for a double lynching today is that one of us might still be cursed, and if we (the villagers) kill them rather than the werewolf killing them, then we are still in control of the situation.
You're welcome to lynch me if it will make you feel better, and I hope we still win whatever, but it does seem silly to agitate for the lynching of someone who isn't a proper suspect when we have four who are an unknown quantity.

Of these four, I am currently suspecting Firefoot the least. The other three, I need to think about.

[littlemanpoet]

I was going to say much that Saurreg has already covered in his first post of TODAY. There is, however, one thing he is wrong about:

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Lalaith I could still be wrong about...

Lalaith was someone about whom our late Seer was not sure, but hoped he was.

I wish that Ang had not been quite so "Feanorian" in his response to your "ineffectual seer" post, because Hookbill's doom was already pretty much assured. So I bemoan the fact that he said he'd kill himself if Hookie was innocent, because that really left no room for doubt that he knew he'd be dead today anyway by being so blunt about it. So Hookie was going to get lynched anyway, but we could have had our Seer still undercover and available to dream of the werewolf on this latest night. For all we know, he DID dream of the werewolf, but cannot tell us for obvious reasons. So a bit of mercurial self-defense has let the werewolf slip our notice yet again.

Granted, Saurreg, that if Ang had not been so blunt, you might have been after his hide and we might have had a double lynching of both seer and werewolf, but the odds of that were, I don't know, something like 6 to 1.

So now we must take a stab at who the last werewolf is. I noticed this from Saurreg:

If we go by my dual theory of werewolf voting behaviour, I'd say the last wolf voted for Hookbill to save its own skin. Look for the votes there. Signs such as sudden reversals in belief, voting patterns or just plain too-good-to-be-true posts explaining the rationale behind the votes may yield alot.

As you noted in a later post, a sudden voting reversal could be seen in either light. Quite right. If I were the werewolf, and I kind of knew that Hookbill was going to get lynched, I'd have switched my vote the first opportunity I saw. But I'm not the werewolf, and I was, as I said before, responding to the seer's clear indication.

By the way, the cursed villager may not still walk among us. If the cursed villager is lynched, she or he is dead. Only if a werewolf kills the cv, does the cv become a werewolf.

I believe my posting history bears out that I have been suspicious of Evisse myself. Of course, Feanor's mercurial play continues to leave me unsettled as well.

[Lalaith]

Most excellently played, gallant Anguirel. You have not died in vain.

At least his death has cleared up what has been worrying me for days, that he might be werewolf. I knew (obviously) that I was innocent, so as soon as Anguirel started defending me, I realised the only way he could know, was because he was either the Seer or a werewolf.
If he was a werewolf, he was befriending me in order to gain credibility for himself, when I was killed and my innocence proven.
I was worried, you see, by his and Esgal's absence on the first day, and drew a possible link between this and the failure of anyone to defend Esgal when phantom nominated her. To add to this theory there was the death of Azaelia on the first night: she was the first on the list, alphabetically, *after* Anguirel. Neither Esgal nor Anguirel were there that first night, so left to his own devices, the lone wolf, especially if he were a nervous newbie, might simply have gone for the first one on the list.
Anyway, enough of this now-redundant theory, Anguirel has proved to be honest, wise and true and now we must honour his memory by catching the last werewolf.

We are now thanks to Anguirel, fortunate enough to have three proven innocents: Saurreg, Celuien and myself, which puts the villagers in a very strong position. I know some of you have pointed out that Anguirel didn't unequivocally back me in his last post. To this I would reply that I think he was trying to leave a bit of doubt, for a slim chance of being left uneaten last night.
I don't think he would have risked voting for Nilp to save me, instead of Hookbill who he knew for sure was a wolf, if he hadn't been sure I was innocent.

I agree that we need to do some mass lynching in order to win, and I'll co-operate with Saurreg on this. But I'm sorry to do it because innocents will die and I quite understand that villagers who have got this far want to survive until the end.

[Lalaith]

Oh but Saurreg, I'm not entirely sure who to lynch, as we have a day I think we should discuss the possibilities. I want to go through the evidence first so that we pick wisely.
It would be a total bummer if, despite a double lynching, we failed to get the wolf and he then was lucky enought to land himself a recruit overnight. That way we would be down to 3 villagers and two wolves, not a good place to be.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

Of course, Feanor's mercurial play continues to leave me unsettled as well.

I am unsettling. I am mysterious. I do things for reasons that I am unlikely and/or unwilling to explain. You think I'm going to stop acting that way just to please you? Perhaps if you all read a bit closer to what people have been saying, you wouldn't be so confused by what I'm saying.

Originally Posted by Myself

There's also my list. Some members I could cross out because Ang cleared them officially. Others, I crossed out because I cleared them personally.

Originally Posted by Evisse

Could you elaborate on that?

*facepalm*

Sure, why not. Innocents are underlined.

Celuien: cleared by Anguirel with no room for doubt.

Fea: duh.

Firefoot: She backed me in the very beginning, saying that intentionally killing innocents (tp's campaign) was a bad idea. What kind of wolf campaigns against killing innocents? Also, although he left room for doubt because he wasn't certain, Footie was very low on Ang's suspect list. He didn't clear her exactly, but he wasn't worried about her, and niether am I.

Lalaith: been allied with our Seer from the beginning. That can't be taken for granted. Yesterday I accused her on faulty evidence, but once it was corrected, I saw how slip-shod that particular theory was and dropped it. I've actually got a working theory that she's our Hunter, which is part of why I don't want to kill her. She'd take someone else out with her, and I'm not sure who that person would be. If she planned on taking out, say... LMP... I'd say "Sure, let's kill her. We might be wrong and she could be the wolf and not a hunter, but if she is the hunter, she takes out one of my biggest suspects." But since I'm pretty sure she's innocent, and I'm not nearly so sure if she's Gifted, I'm not even going to bother offering up the idea of slaying her.

Saurreg: inarguably our other Sherriff. If anybody disagrees on that theory, they've yet to mention it.

LMP: I latently suspected him at the beginning, and then decided against it. Then my framing went awry when he was the only one of my suspects not to die and be proven innocent. Which led me to believe there might have been a reason that he wasn't dying... such as the wolves don't kill their own. When everyone ignored this, I screamed at people until they paid attention. Once the idea had been properly addressed, I dropped it. Right now, I don't think he's guilty, but that doesn't mean I don't think we should kill him... just to be on the safe side.

Evisse: the only one of us to have seemingly no clue that Ang was the Seer. The rest of us were like "Oh, hey... we found the Seer. Let's all listen to his inarguable defenses and accusations of people." And many of our Seer's comments were saying "Evisse is sneaky" or "has anyone else been worried about Evisse?".

Is that better?

[Lalaith]

Whoever the Hunter is, I think we should be glad we still have him or her.

Feanor, I think that Anguirel's comments about Evisse were based on his deductions as a player rather than his dreams as a seer. If he had really dreamt of the third wolf he would have gone after them like a rat up a drain, particularly as he knew he was almost certainly going to die last night.

Btw, yesterday I said I thought you (Feanor) were innocent, purely based on your voting on the first day. I do however now qualify this statement, as I subsequently realised that this deduction was based on someone being a rational player rather than someone being bonkers as conkers. And I mean that in the nicest way - bonkers is as good a strategy as any, frankly.

[Evisse the Blue]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Is that better?

Slightly.
You still haven't offered anything beyond personal opinions and most of all uncertainties of your own, which hardly count as evidence.
Either you're a wolf, Fea, or an innocent who seems bent on playing to her own tune, which seems rather to harm villagers, instead of helping them.

Evisse: the only one of us to have seemingly no clue that Ang was the Seer. Let's all listen to his inarguable defenses and accusations of people." And many of our Seer's comments were saying "Evisse is sneaky" or "has anyone else been worried about Evisse?".

Are you serious about this? *laughs in spite of herself*
And you think if I were a werewolf I'd be so blatantly suicidal to actually come out and say it? You forget the advantage werewolves have over villagers. If I were a werewolf myself I'd have been the first to know he's the Seer, based on his accusation of Hookbill. So at that moment saying 'Hey I distrust Anguirel even if the rest of you don't' wouldn't be the very smart move for the remaining werewolf. It would be the very opposite of sneaky. So make up your mind, am I dumb or sneaky?

I actually want to point this out, if you people are going to go by the Seer's last words, both when it comes to me or to the others, be careful. The Seer can base his suspicions on Dreams or on hunches, analyses, like the rest of us. I believe his last words were merely personal beliefs, not backed by Dreams. Except for Saurreg, who was cleared beyond any doubt.

[Lalaith]

So at that moment saying 'Hey I distrust Anguirel even if the rest of you don't' wouldn't be the very smart move for the remaining werewolf.

well actually it would, because by his identifying of Hookbill, Anguirel could also have been a wolf, playing a desperate game of survival.
(Similarly, the real werewolf, playing a desperate game, could have left Anguirel alive last night. Had Anguirel still been here this morning, some of us would have thought, hey, he's more or less blatantly said he's the Seer, how come the wolf didn't eat him? Maybe he is the wolf after all?)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Btw, yesterday I said I thought you (Feanor) were innocent, purely based on your voting on the first day. I do however now qualify this statement, as I subsequently realised that this deduction was based on someone being a rational player rather than someone being bonkers as conkers. And I mean that in the nicest way - bonkers is as good a strategy as any, frankly.

Oh goodness... I haven't laughed that hard since... Well, not since Sunday night. But before that... it hadn't been since Friday.... however before that... Well... it's been a happy week. But I just laughed really hard. I'm glad to hear you like my strategy. I've had it planned out from the very beginning, you know.

Either you're a wolf, Fea, or an innocent who seems bent on playing to her own tune, which seems rather to harm villagers, instead of helping them.

Dum dum diddly diddly dum di-dum. I can't very well dance to anyone else's tune, since I don't wholly trust anyone else, whereas I know that I've got the best of intentions. Or at least I did. I beginning to second guess them now, and change them to fit my mood.

No... I'm going to stop short right here and be serious for a minute. Pay close attention, because it won't last long, and I'm soon to go back to playing games to watch reactions.

Anguirel did not trust Evisse.

Originally Posted by Ang

And is Evisse's distinct refusal to see the wood for the trees as suspicious as it seems to me? I suspected her a while back...

Originally Posted by Ang

Naturally enough, my eye now defensively lingers on Evisse again.

I'd come up with more quotes, but there are many, and I don't feel like hitting copy/paste that many times. I trust Ang's judgement even if it's not backed up by a Dream, because he is not as quick to accuse as I am. I observe by way of messing with people's heads and seeing the outcome. He asks questions and reserves his comments until after he's thought for awhile. He wouldn't randomly accuse, much unlike me. As I've said before... take out Evisse and if I'm wrong, so be it. Judge me in whatever way seems fair to you, but before you do it, think hard and publicly on who you all suspect.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Saurreg

I hereby submit that from the list of the seer, that Celuien and Lalaith are innocent.

Our suspects now boil down to:

Evisse the Blue
Feanor of the Peredhil
littlemanpoet
Firefoot

I had a feeling that Anguirel was the seer. I'm glad our wise judge identified a wolf before they found him out.

Like many have said above, I find Evisse's post in which she tosses suspicion on Anguirel disingenuous. I'm also inclined to trust Anguirel's judgment, even if it wasn't backed up by a dream. Of the remaining non-cleared villagers on Saurreg's list, I'm really not particularly suspicious of anyone. If Evisse turns out to be an innocent, I will be very surprised. But since Lalaith was never specifically cleared, if Evisse is innocent, I will be highly inclined to suspect Lalaith.

I have to leave now and probably will not be back before the deadline. Therefore, my vote goes to ++EVISSE.

*crosses fingers and hopes we've found the last wolf*

[Firefoot]

Well, since I can't be sure that I will be awake in time for the voting deadline, I'm going to go ahead and cast my vote for ++Lalaith. Evisse just doesn't seem like a werewolf.

[Saurreg]

There goes my plan.

I will vote later.

[Lalaith]

Saurreg, not necessarily, but I'm going to have to sacrifice myself I think.

Villagers, you've cocked up bigtime. I AM innocent. Saurreg's plan was the way to victory and I think you might now have blown it.
But I'm willing to die - but save the village, hopefully, if Saurreg agrees to my plan.

I think of Anguirel's two chief suspects, Evisse might be innocent. She consistently suspects me and still suspects me now. She's wrong, but fair enough. Lmp I think doesn't really suspect me, because he's used such sophistry in his arguments, they're just not genuine. He's whipped up suspicion against me deliberately to save himself. I think lmp is the wolf. Either that, or he's a very selfish villager.

At the moment, we have two votes for me, two for Evisse. Lets see which way Evisse votes. If she can be persuaded, for the good of the village, to vote for lmp, I will vote for him too, and Saurreg, you must abstain. Then I die, but I take two possible wolves with me.

If Evisse votes for me (even in the face of the above) then Saurreg, please vote for Evisse and I will do the same.

PS. If Feanor is the wolf, hats off to her. She hasn't had a single vote the whole game.

[Lalaith]

I forgot to mention, (although I'm sure you've worked it out) that my three-way-lynching plan is something of a gamble.
If neither lmp or Evisse turn out to be the wolf, that's three of us gone, and the wolf kills someone else tonight. Almost certainly either Saurreg or Celuien, one of the proven innocents.
So the villagers will be down to three tomorrow, and two of you are going to HAVE to get it right.
However, I think the odds are still ok and so Saurreg I still think my plan holds good.

[Lalaith]

I've got to go now, and won't be back until just before voting deadline, so I'll just add a final plea to Evisse and Saurreg.
Evisse, whether you vote for me or not, you're almost certainly going to die anyway. If you vote for lmp, we will know you are innocent, and you will have the consolation of dying alongside me, another innocent, and helping to save the village.
Here's how I hope things will pan out:
if none of us three who die today is a werewolf or a hunter, that leaves Saurreg, Celuien, Firefoot and Feanor. Who will the wolf kill? The obvious choice is Saurreg, but a bold and rash wolf might kill one of the other two, even though he stands a 50:50 chance of killing the hunter, because he might still find the cursed villager.
But whatever happens what we should be left with tomorrow is three villagers of which at least one proven innocent. So that should swing it for us.
Go on, Evisse and Saurreg, please do it. You know it makes sense.
Oh, and if the hunter is killed, I *really* hope he makes the right choice. That is another way we could still mess up.

[Evisse the Blue]

Please convince me to vote for lmp, because I was gonna vote for Fea. So far her suspect list has consisted only of innocents, (sort of like mine) and I doubt she's in a position to help the village, even if she's not a werewolf, which would be the logical assumption, if the person in question was not Fea.

A three way lynching is a too risky thing to do, in my opinion. It's a gamble indeed, and it denies us the only advantage which we had: bigger numbers.