Saruman for or against Sauron?

[Raynor]

I don't think that sheer might is what ultimately defines Tolkien's world, quite the contrary case can be made:

Originally Posted by Letter #131

The chief of the stories of the Silmarillion, and the one most fully treated is the Story of Beren and Luthien the Elfmaiden. Here we meet, among other things, the first example of the motive (to become dominant in Hobbits) that the great policies of world history, 'the wheels of the world', are often turned not by the Lords and Governors, even gods, but by the seemingly unknown and weak – owing to the secret life in creation, and the pan unknowable to all wisdom but One, that resides in the intrusions of the Children of God into the Drama. It is Beren the outlawed monal who succeeds (with the help of Luthien, a mere maiden even if an elf of royalty) where all the armies and warriors have failed: he penetrates the stronghold of the Enemy and wrests one of the Silmarilli from the Iron Crown.

In what sense can the statement "the west was military incapable" be true? Certainly not in the absolute one. We can speculate that for a good while of the third age, Sauron's enemies (without the one ring) were a match to him. Up to when? Perhaps the earliest is 2060, when the Wise suspect that his power increases in Dol-Gudur; or 2460, when the watchful peace ends; or 2885, when the haradrim attack Gondor at the bidding of Sauron, or even 2951, when at last Sauron declares himself.

I think that we can only declare the west as military incapable against Sauron, when we find that the following are not synchronized in their favor:

- the period it requires them to build an empire, with the help of the One Ring, necessary to contend Sauron

- when they actually get the One Ring

- when is Sauron powerful enough to attack them first

It can even be argued that the gathering of strength can be hastened by claiming soldiers who obey Sauron's power; Tolkien noted that the nazgul wouldn't be wholly invulnerable to the power of an enemy ringlord, even in the case of Frodo; I would guess that the hosts of Mordor would too be vulnerable to its influence, seeing that they already are driven forth by Sauron's power. The conclusion I would draw is that not all the elements are known, so our estimates are rather inexact; in most, if not all, cases, some timelines favor the the victory of the west, some the victory of Sauron, but the very story of LotR shows us that no outcome is set in stone.

How powerful is Sauron in direct confrontation? Very powerful, most likely, but he is not the same Sauron of the second age. He had expended energy in making himself a new body and in "long corruption and expenditure of will in dominating inferiors" - this being also the factors of the diminishing of Melkor's power, who, even he, at the end of the first age, feared of being hurt. I believe that at the end of the third age, Sauron can be defeated in a direct battle.