Saruman for or against Sauron?

[Kuruharan]

In what sense can the statement "the west was military incapable" be true?

In the obvious one. They could not defeat Sauron by force of arms.

We can speculate that for a good while of the third age, Sauron's enemies (without the one ring) were a match to him.

No, we can’t speculate that because for much of the Third Age they were not contesting him, they just sat back for the most part.

the period it requires them to build an empire, with the help of the One Ring, necessary to contend Sauron

Exactly, they didn’t have that.

It can even be argued that the gathering of strength can be hastened by claiming soldiers who obey Sauron's power

This has always been a bit of an unclear issue. The Men that followed Sauron (and there were probably plenty enough of these to do the job) were probably not in thrall to the power of the Ring to any large extent. I think they could be counted on to follow Sauron regardless, if for no other reason than the new ringlord, whoever it would be, would be representing something they had hated and fought against for generations.

The orcs, I have to admit, I’m not sure about. On the whole I’m inclined to think they would also continue to follow Sauron for similar reasons to the Men. Whether they could actually attempt to actively harm the new ringlord I think is largely irrelevant. All the orcs would be there for is to help kill the enemy soldiers. Sauron would deal with the new ringlord.

Tolkien noted that the nazgul wouldn't be wholly invulnerable to the power of an enemy ringlord, even in the case of Frodo; I would guess that the hosts of Mordor would too be vulnerable to its influence

But Sauron would remain their master. That is not called into question in the case of the Nazgul, they remain Sauron’s slaves. They would not be needed to deal with the new ringlord. They would be much more effective doing nasty things to the new ringlord’s army.

But regardless of this, this little debate is a waste of time. It was relentlessly stated in the books over and over from the time of the Council of Elrond that the West could not hope to defeat Sauron militarily. The West also utterly lacked the capacity to launch effective offensive actions against Sauron, that in itself is very telling. I find that your argument has no foundation.

I believe that at the end of the third age, Sauron can be defeated in a direct battle.

By Gandalf, nobody else. Saruman couldn’t master the Ring to face Sauron (as the rotting horse corpse lying over there that I’ve had to beat mercilessly for the past few months attests to). Galadriel and Elrond were not of the same order of creation as Sauron and for a number of other reasons just don’t stack up. Aragorn is explicitly denied the ability to best Sauron in such a situation.

I don't know what else there is to say about this.

[Raynor]

They could not defeat Sauron by force of arms.

You are ignoring my line of reasoning in that paragraph; I was referring to the moment in time Sauron became mightier in arm forces. There was a buildup in his forces, he didn’t enjoy his military superiority for the better part of the third age.

No, we can’t speculate that because for much of the Third Age they were not contesting him, they just sat back for the most part.

I was discussing “for how long were they capable” not “what they actually did”. Although what you stated is correct, it doesn’t address my statement.

Exactly, they didn’t have that.

In order to conclude that, we would need to know, as I stated previously:
- when would Sauron be fully prepared to attack them
- what period of time they needed to build their armies with the help of the one ring, in order to defeat Sauron
- what is the time they got the ring

As far as I know, at least the second factor is down to speculation, but I would welcome your suggestions for these. We know that Sauron wasn’t ready to fully attack the ringlord-less west at the time of the Pellenor Fields, in 15th of march, 3019. When would he be fully prepared to attack a ringlord? I don’t know. As to the third factor, that is simply down to an agreement; the sooner they got it, the quicker they would proceed to building forces, with more motivation, and, possibly, with more efficiency. Also, the sooner they would build their forces, the weaker Sauron would be. As I said, some timelines (placing the appearance the ringlord sooner in the third age) would favor the west, some would favor Sauron (placing said event later) in the third age); if the ringlord would appear only around the time of the council of Elrond or the likes, in 3018, he/she would have a serious handicap.

By Gandalf, nobody else.

But Sauron facing opponents individually is not what I had in mind. You are conveniently taking into consideration only a one-on-one battle. While this seems to be defining some Hollywood style combats, I have a hard time imagining a scene in which several tens/hundreds/thousands of warriors would line up to fight Sauron individually. Even in that case, sheer number of individual fights, or just accidents, would allow us to consider that Sauron can be defeated. As far as I know, no embodied person in Middle-Earth enjoys invulnerability.

But regardless of this, this little debate is a waste of time.

Err, why do you post then?

[Kuruharan]

You are ignoring my line of reasoning in that paragraph

Mainly because I didn’t see your point or how it related to what we were talking about (still don’t really).

And exactly how militarily incapable do you think Sauron was during the Third Age? He successfully (and repeatedly) instigated mass invasions against his enemies from Angmar, in 1851 with the Wainriders, and in 2000 the Nazgul seized Minas Ithil. This all happened before the Ring was fished out of the bottom of the river and before he established himself in Mordor. Arnor was gone and Gondor was already weakening. The West’s military incapacity was something of long standing.

15th of march, 3019

I’ll go with this. From this date, the West couldn’t win militarily at this point because they did not have the resources to defeat Sauron in the showdown that would quickly follow. He had all the manpower and material superiority that he needed. Once he knew who the new ringlord was he would pounce. What could be simpler? The West did not have years for a new ringlord to build up. Weeks, or at most months, would be what they would be looking at and that would not do them any good because time was more a friend of Sauron than of them.

You are conveniently taking into consideration only a one-on-one battle.

And you are conveniently forgetting that Sauron’s armies would have been larger and there for the express purposes of dealing with the new ringlord’s army. Sauron would have done everything he could to force such a man-to-man confrontation because the odds would have been impossibly stacked in his favor.

why do you post then?

For the purpose of publicly disagreeing with ideas I think are ill-founded.

[Raynor]

He successfully (and repeatedly) instigated mass invasions against his enemies from Angmar

Maybe; but Angmar fell nonetheless.

in 1851 with the Wainriders

Defeated eventually

and in 2000 the Nazgul seized Minas Ithil

In 2002 actually.

Sauron would have done everything he could to force such a man-to-man confrontation because the odds would have been impossibly stacked in his favor.

I am not sure what you have in mind; if you are reffering to a man-to-man confrontation with the ringlord, I think we both ruled that out from discussion; if you are referring to confronting individual soldiers, I don't think he would actually avoid, not force such combats - perhaps you could explain.

Mainly because I didn’t see your point or how it related to what we were talking about

My point is that a ringlord's chances to defeat Sauron would increase the sooner he got the ring and started building his empire; there is either a barrier of communication, or we are starting to argue in circles. I am fairly convinced that there was a time during the third age when Sauron could have been defeated even by a non-ringlord; a ringlord would have achieved that victory even quicker. On the other extreme, there is the year 3018, when Sauron is almost ready to strike successfuly the ringlord-less west. Perhaps you are right that the west had at best months to prepare against Sauron; or perhaps a ringlord could extend that period sufficiently enough; we don't know that. Galadriel seems to credit Frodo with the ability to wield the one ring in order to submit other wills, perhaps a more powerful wielder could do that on a far larger scale. Seeing that whoever wields the one ring knows all the thoughts of those who possess the other rings, perhaps even the nazgul are vulnerable to, at least, information leaking. Given time, even Frodo apparently could have mastered the nazgul:he "needed time, much time, before he could control the Ring or (which in such a case is the same) before it could control him; before his will and arrogance could grow to a stature in which he could dominate other major hostile wills [of the nazgul]". My ideas are not ill-founded, as Tolkien too considered that, if an elven ringlord would/could emerge, he/she would build armies, etc:

Originally Posted by Letter #246

In the 'Mirror of Galadriel', 1381, it appears that Galadriel conceived of herself as capable of wielding the Ring and supplanting the Dark Lord. If so, so also were the other guardians of the Three, especially Elrond. But this is another matter. It was part of the essential deceit of the Ring to fill minds with imaginations of supreme power. But this the Great had well considered and had rejected, as is seen in Elrond's words at the Council***. Galadriel's rejection of the temptation was founded upon previous thought and resolve. In any case Elrond or Galadriel would have proceeded in the policy now adopted by Sauron: they would have built up an empire with great and absolutely subservient generals and armies and engines of war, until they could challenge Sauron and destroy him by force.

***Concerning the mastery of the ring, Elrond stated: "Its strength, Boromir, is too great for anyone to wield at will, save only those who have already a great power of their own."

Between the coming of Sauron to Dol Gudur in 1100 and some years before Pelennor Fields there is just speculation, and perhaps it is just better to agree to disagree since we all put our arguments forth and I kinda dislike the tone of the discussion.