Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now this makes me scan to the PanMan again. Maybe this is yet another Valarish plan of the Faithfuls, but I still think that if SPaMman is innocent - and as the Faithfuls knew I would be protected - why did they kill Rune instead of him?

Nogrod, could you elaborate? I did not catch you rpoint, I'm afrais. Why does "this" make you scan SPM again? And why do you wonder why Rune was killed instead of him? Because Sauce is a great benefit for the village when innocent?

And TGWBS, I think you manage to point out how weird/contradictory Mänwe is, but if I had to judge his behaviour (like one usually must while playing ww) I think he looks more like a confused innocent than like a faithful.

[Thinlómien]

Day1
#25 Speaks about the roles and the quantities, "Everyone who's discussing how the wolves are/will behave is out of their minds. It's Day 1. The wolves don't have to do anything but sit back and let everyone get confused, bogged down by theories and plans." Says she agrees with Sauce and Nogrod, but doesn't elaborate about what. Calls the SPM-Mänwe interaction interesting. Finds Mith's comment about gifteds strange. Is irked by Glirdy's post. Comments on a remark by Garin. Promises a vote for us to chew soon.
#29 Agrees with Rune about Mänwe acting weirdly in his few latest posts. Says Mänwe's talking the ultimate Day1 in-character nonsense. Says she has nothing else to go on and votes him. Says she'll be back to reconsider the vote.
#84 Doesn't like the idea of lynching Nog or SPM simply because they'd be dangerous as faithfuls. Mänwe doesn't sit right with her, but she thinks a faithful would maybe be more honey-tongued. Says Rikae's vote for Mänwe wasn't suspicious per se, but that it was so close after her own Mänwe-vote makes it odd. Apologises to Garin and finds him "pretty darn odd looking".
#107 I suspicious of Rikae and Garin, but not probably enough to switch from Mänwe. Agrees with Mith about Roa being very loud and wanting to lynch SPM. Answers to TGWBS why was she worried about Glirdy not saying much, but not about Kath. Thinks Hookbill has a good point about Mänwe and says that makes her think he's the cobbler. Does not like Mänwe's comment that he wants Nog lynched. Agrees with Nogrod that in werewolf people always tend to go after the easy targets. Asks if Nogrod has any new thoughts (since he suggested the "possibility of looking things anew").
#110 Right after Rikae revealing: "Oh lord, I knew this was going to be off to a bad start..." and a switch form Mänwe to Garin.
#125 "Wow, there were a lot more people around then I thought. I guess I jumped the gun thinking voting Garin was my only option. Argh."

Comments: Well, she spends a lot of time agreeing with this and that. Her first vote is weird. I mean, she promises to vote soon though she's sure she can come back. Then she votes someone who (it seems) she wasn't really very suspicious of ("there's nothing better to go on"). Why do this? Why just not vote? Because she's a wolf who wants to ensure she's voted early and no one can blame her since that was a reasonable vote at that phase, but later she'd need to make a more reasoned vote? Also, I can't understand that last comment of hers. During the day, she expressed suspicion of three people: Mänwe, Rikae and Garin. She had voted Mänwe previously and had switched to Garin. She knew Rikae was the seer. What's the lost possibility she was after? I don't understand. She seems suspicious.

Day2
#141 Cheers the ranger, says she's now a bit more hopeful. Wonders how Rikae can be sure that the ranger protected her. "Why would the wolves choose to risk wasting a nice kill? Is it simply stupidity, or were they that desperate to kill Rikae for some reason?" Agrees with Rikae about Rikae-voters (she said that looking her voters isn't probably very useful). says she'll have a look at Garin-voters and those who did not join bandwagons. States that wolves have no need to join a bandwagon on Day1. Says to Mänwe Roa's analysis are helpful. Says she had neither a case against Mänwe the Day before nor lots of things to back her suspicion.
#150 Says she missed the protectee-will-be-told -rule.
#156 A sarcastic remark about Gil's behaviour. Thanks Roa for the analysises, says the one about Hookbill is the most interesting one, implies that she'll be watching him. Repeats that the Garin-voters should be looked at.
#216 Is cheerful of Rikae's success. Says she has no reason to doubt Rikae and that Roa should be ignored. Wonders about Roa expressing faith in Legate, but doesn't reach any conclusion. Talks about the cobbler. Corrects my vote summary. Says that I, Brinn and Hook have " bit of a forced, edgy sort of feel to their posts - - , but I definitely do not suggest they are all three wolves or even two of them are, though it's possible." Thinks Brinn's vote for Legate was a safe one, does not know what to think of him.
#228 Says Rikae has a good point when she says Roa should be left alive, but says that Roa can do a lot of harm while alive by for example voting. Replies to Roa.
#262 "I do hope we're not overthinking this, and will trap ourselves in that. I also hope that 'wasting a lynch' on Roa doesn't mean we will waste a lynch on a different person who seems simply a good alternative." Says that the village has spent a lot of time discussing Rikae and Roa and that if Roa is not lynched, the lynch target will be far too random. Does a little vote summary. "If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait". Says Roa's support makes Legate an easy target, says again that she has no idea of him. Agrees with TGWBS that we should look at those Roa didn't mention. Is concerned about Brinn and Kath and their quietness.
#268 "Everyone's right about people "dropping like flies," and I really don't want us to end up stuck with a Cobbler and x number of wolves, with the few innocents left carried along with the tide." Says cobblers are nassty to have around, votes Roa. Says she can change if a better suggestion emerges.
#278 Agrees with Nogrod about "clarity". "Mith - Why are you so concerned about saving Roa, but at the same time you make it seem like you feel SPM really is a shot in the dark?"
#282 Says we're far from lost yet.

Conclusions: By no way as suspicious as her Day1. Actually she'd seem pretty innocent had she not made that weird comment about SPM ("If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait") and had she not been that eager to join TGWBS's campaing to search for clues from Roa's posts, and even in an over-simplistic logic.

Day3
#308 "Regardless of our odds, we have rid ourselves of a Cobbler. The wolves are ally-less, and we have two Gifteds still safe...as long as we don't try and lynch them." Says that (mathemathically speaking) there must be at least one wolf in those who wanted to keep Roa alive, implies that Roa was a good lynch target, defends this view against TGWBS. Suspects Mith is an acting bold wolf, since she was so over-dramatic.
#314 "I don't know what a wolf Mith would try to do, but it doesn't sit right with me." Sums up her feelings about people: Brinn - no clear opinion, Gil - totally uninvolved, TGWBS - has points for and against his wolvishness, Hookbill - thinks he's amiable and his style's setting people off, Kath - sneaky, Kitanna - sneakier than Kath, but innocent-looking, Lalaith - confusing, Legate - amiable and helpful -> pretending?, Mänwe - confusing, Sauce - normal expect less involved, Lommy - too silent and edgy. Suspects Rune because he had a "way better feel" about Legate and still voted him and because his Roa-comments and notes that Rune has gone amost unnoticed. Does not understand the save Roa -campaign.
#316 Jokes to SPM.
#331 Defends her cheerfulness about Rikae having dreamt by the cobbler. says that her vote for Mänwe on Day1 was she trying to see if people would wake up a bit.
#364 Asks Mith for reasons to her suspects, wants to know what she thinks of Brinn. Names Rune and Lalaith her top suspects. "She [Lalaith]'s been nice and cautious, and makes it seem like she expresses her own opinions, though her opinions are nicely placed after someone else has already expressed similar ones, as if she's helping guilt along." Asks Lal a question.
#389 Replies Lalaith. Notes about silent people (Mänwe, Hookbill, Gil). Does not understand the concern over my mistake. Votes Rune.
#396 Asks Nogrod how has her playing style changed (since Nog said so).
#404 Says Rune's not a last-minute lynch and that not many people seem to suspect him.
#415 "Are we ever going to cease making this difficult for our poor Modalaure?"

Comments: Not that suspicious either. I think a wolf would have only been happy to jump at my mistake, and that kind of makes me less wary of her. Her explanation of her day1 vote is reasonable... but in a slightly wolvish way. It's so easy to say that afterwards. I don't like her comment about wolves being ally-less... In my opinion a cobbler isn't that big loss to the wolves, especially not when there's four of them and they're all still alive. The phrasing of that comment just bugs me.

Final comments
There's not as much reason- or sense-based reasons to suspect her as I thought there was. (But there's still plenty of them , especially in her Day1 -behaviour.) But, my gut-feeling of her being a faithful has become even stronger. There's something in her manner that really doesn't sit right with me.

EDIT: xed

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by SPaMman

Ah, here we go. The point that plagues me every game where I last more than a few Days ...

Now now... Have we seen an act looking more Faithfulish than this? Look at the bolding and make your deductions...

Darn shared computer and most of all the timetables - and clock anyway! I try to look at some things briefly now. I will be back later, although in the middle of RL rush. Still I try to find some time to sit down for at least one good while. It's so frustrating to have one's last Day alive in the middle of gazillions of hindrances...

[Durelin]

Okay, that last minute Brinniel thing confused me just as much as the last minute try-to-save Roa thing did. Again, it was like people were trying to rescue Rune, rather than vote for who they were actually suspicious of. I am really bothered by how people, even if they speak their own minds, do not back it up with a vote. Rather than voting for who they find suspicious, they vote for just who "looks like they can be lynched," who maybe they suspect a little, maybe even more than a little...but all the while their top suspect is forgotten, and all the analysis or what have you they did against them becomes meaningless.

Please, please - everyone. We have to get a wolf toDay (duh, I know), so please vote for who you think is suspicious, and not just who is convenient.

I am not going to get over Mith, I'm sorry. I just don't get her attitude. She's making as big of a fuss as possible over the state of the village at every turn, but not doing much about it. The past two Days she's rushed in at the last minute to save first a probable Cobbler and then an at that time unknown from lynching. YesterDay she specifically switched her vote to do so from Lalaith. She switched her vote from Lalaith to match Lalaith's. Eh?

The Brinniel bandwagon really started with a simple spite vote from Rune. It's absurd. Yes I suspected her a bit, but obviously I didn't see a reason to lynch her immediately...and no one seemed to give much of a reason, either.

Lalaith: "I don't much like the choices we've got but like I said before, it's a toss-up for me between her and Manwe, and I don't think Rune's guilty."

Lommy: "of my suspects she can be lynched"

Mith gives no reason for her switched vote, and Legate, though he at least seems to have been fairly "sure" of her guilt, doesn't give a reason for his certainty.

Not all of those people can be wolves, so it seems some of the innocents in this game are using as many underhanded tactics as the wolves likely are, strategizing their lynch targets based on who can be lynched.

Lommy - I thought I explained my Day 1 vote in the very post my vote was in, but when I look back at the actual post...obviously, I wasn't very clear. But I talked about "stirring things up" in my previous post, so if you think I was explaining it away later, at least I was consistent, eh?

I swear no one's paid attention to me in games in a while. Because unless I'm going completely crazy, I know that voting early when I don't have to is something I sometimes do, just to see what happens.

Originally Posted by Lommy

had she not made that weird comment about SPM ("If Roa is indeed the cobbler, which I will assume for now, I think more consideration regarding SPM's guilt can wait") and had she not been that eager to join TGWBS's campaing to search for clues from Roa's posts, and even in an over-simplistic logic.

Ouch. Over-simplistic? If I was over-simplifying things, I certainly wasn't reading very deeply into Roa's posts, now was I? And I meant by my comment that considering the only person who was vehemently supporting suspicion of SPM (well, other than Gil, sort of) turned out to be the Cobbler, we should probably forget about all her reasons of why to lynch him. I tend to think aloud in my posts, so basically that was me trying to narrow down the suspects in my mind.

Edit: Crossed with Nog and Gil

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Durelin

And I meant by my comment that considering the only person who was vehemently supporting suspicion of SPM (well, other than Gil, sort of) turned out to be the Cobbler, we should probably forget about all her reasons of why to lynch him. I tend to think aloud in my posts, so basically that was me trying to narrow down the suspects in my mind.

What happened just a moment ago? Did I have some suspicions over Durelin? And just see what she writes here...

So we should not lynch Spm and conveniently she forgets that I have also suspected Spm from Day1 on quite openly. I think I was indeed the first to suspect him with anything like a point added...

So do we have three wolves in a list of Spm, tgwbs, Durelin...?

Oh you can't be that easy to pick now! Where's the sport now?

Or maybe it was the first actual choice you Faithfuls had to make that just revealed you as you had to try and make it good?

Okay. I'm off for a while but if you will pay heed to an innocent's point of view, think closely before you let these three to turn your minds. If they are the Faithfuls they're surely be honey-tongued and reasonable. No doubt.

tgwbs: how about a short list now? One that the known innocent gives consisting of you three?

[Durelin]

Nogrod - SPM's wording, particularly what you highlighted there, indeed seems to scream *ploy*. The subtlety of it makes it so...well, blatant. But I don't follow your logic much further. I think it's very odd for anyone to bring up the "oh, lad-dee-da, I wonder why I haven't been killed yet... *whistles*" (and lord, particularly when the wolves have only made one free choice on kills, as you said), but you also seem to venture into the idea that SPM or someone else considered *dangerous* should have been killed in the Night. But it's the smartest thing for the wolves to leave alive those who have gotten/are getting at least some suspicion. As you've said, they've only made one "free" choice, so why would they take out someone who might get lynched?

I think I'm reading that wrong, so perhaps you shouldn't waste your time explaining that I am.

Edit: Crossed with Nog, again.

[Durelin]

Nogrod - In what you quote, I was explaining myself to Lommy, not expressing my [edit: current] opinions on SPM, and certainly not in response to your post. If I didn't know you were innocent, I'd say you were "grasping."

What if I did say I didn't think we should lynch SPM? What does that really say? I certainly put weight in your opinions, and you are a valuable ally, but you are not the Seer. I'll think for myself, as well. Something that so far has been difficult, and left us in this boat of 9 against 4.

If we do have a wolf in SPM or TGWBS, though, we'll be in a much better one.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Durelin

I certainly put weight in your opinions, and you are a valuable ally, but you are not the Seer. I'll think for myself, as well.

You're encouraged to do that... I have never said I should be seen as any Mr. Right here. But unlike with all the others you all know that I'm not trying to do harm to this village... Obviously everyone decides for oneself. How else it could be? And hopefully everyone also thinks her/himself!

But what I can see from your reactions?

Well they don't exactly dispel my suspicions... quite on the contrary.

It's so nice to get comfirmation to ones suspicions...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Durelin

[b]but you also seem to venture into the idea that SPM or someone else considered *dangerous* should have been killed in the Night. But it's the smartest thing for the wolves to leave alive those who have gotten/are getting at least some suspicion. As you've said, they've only made one "free" choice, so why would they take out someone who might get lynched?

Spm generally is lynched very early on for some nonexistent grounds by whims of the first Days or then he stays to the end. (Please Spm correct me if I'm wrong about the general tendency) I could indeed bet a nice amount for seeing a village that would lynch Spm after let's say Day5. He's good in this game and can work his way to be the one whom the others trust.

So the possibility of him being lynched is overtly thin indeed (no pun intended ). That's one of the main reasons - not the only one - I'm getting assured he's a Faithful.

Also, please Durelin, list me the names of those who have not gotten "at least some suspicion" around here...

So what do you have for the Faithfuls to "leave alive those who have gotten/are getting at least some suspicion"? Should they have abstained from killing anyone?

And whom would you... *coughsorrycough* ... the Faithfuls not see alive?

How is it that he's alive and you are defending him again? It's a sad thing to see one digging her own grave but when it's one of them terrible Faithfuls I must say we true Numenorians rejoice in all this...

Nice to see things unfolding after so long time of darkness and doubt...

EDIT: X'd with Durelin

[Durelin]

Considering the number of people, including myself, who have not even had a vote for them yet, I'd say there are quite a few who could fall under the "haven't really gotten suspicion" category.

I have been in games with SPM before, and I recall one in which I helped in his lynching on Day 3 or 4, as a bumbling innocent. A Ranger, I think.

I'm not defending SPM, Nogrod; I have a problem with your logic. And if I'm "digging my own grave," then so be it. At least I'm still free of my Day/Night 3 curse.

Edit: Crossed again

[Nogrod]

I just had time to pop in and reread toDay and update myself. I'm off for a while again but will be back and hopefully have some time to try and figure out even something out of this mess we're in.

I just wish to show you this that somehow escaped me earlier.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Okay, that last minute Brinniel thing confused me just as much as the last minute try-to-save Roa thing did. Again, it was like people were trying to rescue Rune, rather than vote for who they were actually suspicious of. I am really bothered by how people, even if they speak their own minds, do not back it up with a vote. Rather than voting for who they find suspicious, they vote for just who "looks like they can be lynched," who maybe they suspect a little, maybe even more than a little...but all the while their top suspect is forgotten, and all the analysis or what have you they did against them becomes meaningless.

Now this looks very innocent to be honest. I indeed had to read it twice as I tried to figure out how on earth a Faithful would go on with this kind of speculation. It's not so much the contents of this but the fact that she goes on to speculate this kind of thing.

But then she continues.

Please, please - everyone. We have to get a wolf toDay (duh, I know), so please vote for who you think is suspicious, and not just who is convenient.

This on the contrary sets all my alarm-bells ringing!

Confused...

Originally Posted by Myself

tgwbs: how about a short list now? One that the known innocent gives consisting of you three?

Originally Posted by tgwbs

If you look back, you will note that I did not advocate a shortlist this game. The way people keep bringing this up annoys me, because it is fabricated........

A bit uptight now aren't we? As that clearly was a joke...

It's good to see you and Spm so helpful toDay! Time to make an impression?

Originally Posted by SPaM

Which just goes to show (for me, anyway) how easy it is to view malign intent behind innocent, but misguided, words. You seem to have made up your mind that I am a Faithful and are now looking for anything in what I say which might support that theory.

You know it as well as I do that basically anyone can be painted black if that is wished for. But I have not decided anything in advance and am trying very much not to overdo this as I think it be of an utmost importance that I will not mislead anyone toDay.

[the guy who be short]

So far, Lommy, Legate, Kath and you (Nogrod) have accused me of supporting a shortlist. If I'm uptight, it's because people seem to have a shared delusion that I, at some point, said "Hey guys! Let's all vote from a shortlist selected by the known innocents, despite the maths."

Originally Posted by nogrod

It's good to see you and Spm so helpful toDay! Time to make an impression?

It really does seem that you're just clutching at any straw you can get your hand on. Even if it's imaginary. I have the third highest post count among the living villagers, and have been offering analyses every day.

[The Saucepan Man]

Lunch over.

So here, as promised, is my analysis of the Day 3 votes

TGWBS: Voted for Brinniel on the basis that she was neither for nor against lynching Roa. Subsequently switched to Manwe on the basis that he thought him trying to sow seeds of doubt in the villager’s mind about Rikae. I don’t find the switch particularly suspicious, as there was little suggestion at the time that Brinniel would end up being lynched. However, I am rather dubious about his reasoning for voting for Manwe. Manwe was strongly in favour of lynching Roa because he thought that she was lying, but thought it was also a good idea even admitting the small possibility that she was not. I rather agree with his (Manwe’s) reasoning. I still have some suspicion of TGWBS, because I am concerned that he may have been twisting Manwe‘s words here.

Kitanna: Voted for Hookbill for seeming to hide behind a “mask of newbieness” and consistently claiming to be a bad judge of character. I cannot fault her reasoning, as I am uneasy about Hookbill for the same reason. However, Hookbill is one of those who has been bubbling under in the village’s suspicions, but with little prospect of attracting too many votes. And, despite being plagued by blizzards, there was always a possibility that she could return and switch her vote, if necessary. I have concerns that Kitanna may well be a "slip under the radar" Faithful and, of all the Day's votes, this one looks the safest Faithful vote to me. It may even have been a Faithful-on-Faithful vote.

Kath: Voted for Rune for safe voting and for casting suspicion without much reasoning. I found Rune suspicious for much the same reason. She put Rune ahead here, with 2 votes, and, in light of her vote, I doubt that a Faithful Kath would have advocated killing Rune in the Night. Also, she gives a long analysis of all the villagers and states where she stand with each one before voting, which makes me feel better about her. Inclined to think her innocent at present.

Mithalwen: Voted for Lalaith on the basis of previously stated suspicions, and then switches to Brinniel because she thought her more suspicious than Rune. Her vote for Lalaith was not particularly safe, given that there was a fair amount of suspicion around Lal at the time. I am concerned about the bandwaggon that suddenly gathered around Brinniel at the end, although I am not sure that a Faithful would have had much to gain by being included in it. That said, whoever speculated that the Brinniel voters had good reason to kill Rune in the Night had a good point and I do think that there was one Faithful, possibly two, among the last minute Brinniel voters. I don’t, however, think it was Mith, as she has not been acting like I would expect a Faithful Mith to act.

Durelin: Voted for Rune on the basis that he was her original suspect of the Day and she had “seen this kind of Rune before”, putting him 2 votes ahead of anyone else. I do find Durelin suspicious and her run-in with Nogrod earlier toDay does not reassure me, as it may have been a Faithful attempt to associate herself with an innocent. Like Kath, I do wonder whether a Faithful Durelin would have been so bold as to kill Rune in the Night, after this vote. That said, if there was a Faithful among the Rune voters, I think this to be the one. Still looking very suspicious to me.

Lalaith: Voted for Brinniel, bringing her to 2 votes. She said that she didn’t much like the choices, but that it was a toss-up between Brinniel and Manwe as she didn’t find Rune suspicious. Now, there was inevitably a bit of confusion surrounding these last minute votes and switches. But this was the vote that started the slide towards Brinniel’s lynching. As such, it looks more suspicious to me than those which came later. I also don’t really like the comment about disliking the choices. It may well have been intended to give the option of distancing herself from the situation if Brinniel was lynched and found innocent (as happened). Lalaith remains high in my suspicions.

Lommy: Voted for Brinniel, saying that, of those she found suspicious, only she could be lynched. Much the same applies as with regard to Lalaith above. I am certain that either Lalaith or Lommy is a Faithful and, since they have both been defending each other every so often, I wonder whether they both might be. If so, both voting for Brinniel at this stage was dangerous but, given the timing, it may well have been a cross-post and retracting would have looked even more suspicious.

Legate: Voted for Brinniel, although I am not entirely sure from his reasoning why. This followed an analysis of each villager. My concerns over Legate yesterDay were based on the fact that he seems to say a lot without saying much. His analysis does not ease my concerns in that regard. His vote for Brinniel was a cross-post so, if he is a Faithful, he may have unintentionally voted here with one of his friends. Still looking suspicious to me.

Hookbill: Voted for Manwe because of a hunch that he was untrustworthy, putting him on 3 votes. Given the confusion, I am not sure that this was the safe vote it might otherwise seem (Brinniel was on 5 votes at the time). That said, I remain suspicious that he has given very little away about what he thinks and has voted for Manwe on both Days that he has voted without really giving any solid reasons. I am still wary of him.

Based on that and my previous thinking, my current list is as follows:

Suspicious
Lalaith
Durelin
Lommy
Kitanna

Somewhat suspicious
TGWBS
Hookbill
Legate

No idea
Gil-Galad

Inclined to think innocent
Manwe
Kath
Mithalwen

Innocent
Nogrod

Does anyone know if Manwe is still playing? I missed all the furore on the Admin thread. Even if not, I guess we won’t know his innocence or guilt until toNight? Mac?