Tol-In-Gaurhoth XXXVIII - E.T.T.T.S.O.W.I.

[Volo]

Oh my! Lommy, you said exactly what I'm thinking. Now I'll look even more suspicious. I would have said it earlier, but I was waiting for the baddies to possibly make a slip. So either you made the slip or are innocent.

My first thoughts about Menel were that he's the Scientist. He felt like he really wanted to stay alive and was excited about his role. Whoever killed him did nastily as Menel has a history of dying young, same goes from Shasta who actually tries to play at times, unlike Xyzzy (Sorry, I'm not trying to offend you, but that's how it feels.).

The lynching of Shasta felt nasty, like I have said several times before. Very fake. I tried to come up with some points about the players but I must say that I couldn't. It's all on the gut-level.

No, not totally. Now that Lommy has mentioned it, we can't wait for more hints of this type.
I think that Mac is most probably a baddie and Noggie maybe the boss. I have little idea of who the second baddie is, but I do feel that he/she's not showing himself/herself to the boss.

I might be imagining things, which I doubt. Noggie and Mac seem to have a discussion on their own level during the first day telling each-other their roles (or at least hinting).
Their rather jokingly "competition" is a good cover on day1 as it brings some points and a space to move but doesn't truly make the person think of who the baddies are. They have both written rather impressive looking posts with little content.

Legate and Brinniel were my other two main suspects but they feel more genuine.

I'm going to sleep, the sun is down.

[Macalaure]

On one thing I agree with Lommy: if Brinn was a baddie and over-nervous, she probably wouldn't have killed Menel. Menel said very little, but within the little that he said, he slightly suspected her.

But otherwise....

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, the first thing I have to say is that I don't quite understand where all this suspicion towards me has come from. There seems to be few actual points against me, but still most people seem to be suspecting me.

"There seems to be few actual points against me"? sounds suspiciously unspecific. If you think there are actual points against you, then why don't you defend yourself against them? This statement appears kind of half-hearted. It appears as if you either think you can't defend yourself against them or you don't want to draw everybody's attention to them again.
It also sounds like "Oh, look, there are only few points against me, please suspect someone else"

Originally Posted by Lommy

Also, I know there are some players - who as wolves dislike killing contributive & "dangerous" people in the beginning of the game

True, but Menel didn't really fall into this category, because one could have expected that he would have contributed more on the following days.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I wouldn't be surprised if another of the wolves was Mac and he would have told his partner in crime that he thinks they should not kill any of the "dangerous" players but rather someone else and they would have chosen Menel...? Now before you accuse me of it I'm not claiming Menel's death means Mac's guilty, I just think that might be the case, especially as I've grown a bit wary of him otherwise as well.

So you wouldn't be surprised if I was a wolf, but you don't want to be accused of thinking I'm guilty, but you've still grown wary of me. Now if this doesn't sound a little like the classical "He's very suspicious, but not that much".

Originally Posted by Lommy

There's something forced in his tone and somehow the comment: "Seriously, I didn't see that coming." sounded very wolvish to me. I can't tell why but it just made a chill run down my spine. Sounds just like something a wolf would say...

I explained it in the very next sentence. Menel complained before that people tend to be too quick to suspect him, and now he survives the Day and immediately falls prey to the Night. Nope, I didn't see that coming.

A chill down your spine?


Volo, I don't know anything about Nogrod's role, of course, but I can assure you we didn't exchange any hints yesterday.

[Thinlómien]

"There seems to be few actual points against me"? sounds suspiciously unspecific. If you think there are actual points against you, then why don't you defend yourself against them? This statement appears kind of half-hearted. It appears as if you either think you can't defend yourself against them or you don't want to draw everybody's attention to them again.

There are, as far as I know, three actual points against me. One is that I'm friendly. Second is that I'm stating the obvious. Well, what can I say? "Trust me, I'm not friendly, actually I'm quite evil!"? The third point was that as a wolf I might have killed Menel. I can hardly judge that - for some reason I haven't needed to think about it very much. I don't deny that if I was a wolf I might have killed Menel, but as a wolf I might have killed someone else as well.

It also sounds like "Oh, look, there are only few points against me, please suspect someone else"

Well, if you want to phrase it like that... Of course I'd prefer you guys focusing your energies elsewhere and not accusing/suspecting an innocent girl - especially as we must lynch a baddie toDay if we don't want to lose.

True, but Menel didn't really fall into this category, because one could have expected that he would have contributed more on the following days.

I think that can be debated... There are no really silent people in this village. Maybe Xyzzy, but I can't see the wolves killing him as he's such an advantage to them.

So you wouldn't be surprised if I was a wolf, but you don't want to be accused of thinking I'm guilty, but you've still grown wary of me.

I did not say I don't want to be accused of thinking you're guilty. I said that I don't want to be accused of making a conclusion that "because Menel died, Mac must be guilty".

And now I'm going to sleep, but I'll be back.

[Nogrod]

So idealists are killing paranoids already? That's what I could have told you a long time ago. Those people are dangerous as we all true conservatives know. Just look at the mess these radicals, hippies and other reckless castes of the society bring about.

I have a thought or two but let me first make an open question - and you parrot listen closely.

Does anyone here know exactly what the numbers are at the moment? If the baddies do overpower us when they reach the same number with us civilians then it would be the most important to know where we stand at the moment.

There are seven of us alive on this island. Two are henchmen and one is a villain. But is the villain counted as a civilian or as a baddie in the tallies which decide when we win or lose?

So are we now in 5-2 or 4-3? If the latter we must get a henchman toDay (unless the bodyguard wins toNight) or we lose, if the former, we can afford at least one more mistake. That's a big difference when we consider fex. Xyzzy.

And the rule about the non-appearing villagers would help us as well. Do you hear my words Pooky?

Okay. That's the general part. I'll be soon back with a few more specific thoughts...

[Nogrod]

Concerning Lommy.

Our student activist Mac did indeed raise some noteworthy points against her (#47). I would add two things. Firstly it seems that she has really spent some time analysing the henchmen position (#45). It was a bit too elaborate coming from just an innocent trying to think a bit what the baddies might have thought. It sounded like a henchman who had already thought these things through a gazillion times during the Night and now used parts of that reasoning. Secondly I'd interpret a bit more into Lommy's "There seems to be few actual points against me" than Mac who only says it's suspiciously unspecific or half-hearted. I mean, why would an innocent phrase herself like that? Lommy's is the way a baddie thinks.

A civilian protests that the others have got it wrong or she calls for the actual suspicions to be brought forwards so that she can answer them if necessary. But a baddie then, she underlines the fact that there are not enough actual points against her and thence the others should focus elsewhere. Who - as an innocent - would say that becasue you don't have a good case leave me alone? An innocent says, because I'm innocent you should leave me alone for you're hurting our common cause.

[Nogrod]

Concerning Macalaure.

I said yesterDay that this young student activist has no good intentions (check #24 for more). No leftwing activists have good intentions when we look at the society as a whole. Some of them may have a good heart but that then gets overrun by naivéte.

But it looks pretty believable to me that both Lommy and Mac are not henchmen. Even if Mac kind of treats Lommy with silken gloves he manages to raise good points against Lommy in a situation where she is already under some general pressure. These two might pull that kind of bluff to be sure, but if Lommy is lynched toDay (and actually turns out a henchwoman) I'm not sure if Mac as a lonely henchman could count on surviving the rest of the Days. Maybe I should ask the CIA-guys to put him under a surveillance as well?

But Mac might indeed be the villain - student activistis are villains to the ordered society in the general sense of the term in any case. But just look at his posting yesterDay and remember that the villain needs to catch the attention of the henchmen and that El Gil specifically mentioned that the villain is the leader whose work the henchmen will accomplish.

Now how does this acti-Mac enter the discussion? By calling for his henchmen to get rid of me in two consequent posts... He all but issues a straight order to them back there. So contacting his hänschenmen and giving them their first mission (a hint being: I give you orders ie. I'm your boss as the villain is the leader of the henchmen).

Who else do you think tried to contact her/his henchmen yesterDay? Remember that in a small island like this the villain needs to do that because otherwise her/his own henchmen might kill her/him.

But to be honest, Mac's posting toDay has been quite helpful and reasonable. He's intelligent enough to stop sending messages after he believes the point ("hello, I'm the one!") has gone through and when continuing it might endanger his own life. Or then he just got loose on his first posts and is now settling down for a bit more constructive participation...

That said, the worst I can think of now from Mac - before the CIA reports that is - is that he's then the villain, not a henchman and we should not rush to a villain now if we have a chance of getting a henchman. And I'm beginning to feel that we might just be at it.

[Nogrod]

I need to go to sleep now.

Just a general point still. I'm sorry to patronise but you know us conservatists. We're such patriots, and proud of it.

If the situation actually is 4-3 (hey Peeko, please answer) the super scientist might do well to come forwards at least if s/he knows a baddie or if we're doing insane choices. Even erasing one innocent name from the list might help our quest toDay if all will end with one bad choice.

(OOC: If I remember it correctly the cobbler is normally counted as a villager in the tallies - and thence it would be 5-2 now - but I'd like to know for sure as with this small village the information will be crucial already toDay.)

Originally Posted by Susie

Are you saying that Lommy's guess is more correct than the other guesses so far and therefore showing that you also thought like this? That would mean that you have a part in selecting Menel as the victim.

You're a bit too reckless with your conclusions... I didn't say Lommy's "guess" is more correct (how could I?) so there can't be a "therefore" included or any "that means" either. I just think her account is wealthier in detail and very much believable. And that makes me suspect her. She really has gone through the possibilities. Read it again and think.

Originally Posted by daughter of a random goat-herder

I myself thought of the reasons exactly the same way

Really? You really thought of all those variants, and got to the same conclusions? You have spent a lot of time pondering this game if compared to the time you spend actually participating it with writing something - and you must be a soulmate to this hippie-girly.

Or did you two have these discussions last Night?

I was a bit troubled with your nonsensical approach yesterDay. You were my only other candidate for being the villain after Mac as you kept repeating how unreasonable you have been (villain needs to cause confusion so talking nonsense does just that) and you had also that weird hint about the great grandma' or something wedding a werewolf...

But now I must say that I'm a little alert indeed.

I'll be back later toDay.

[Macalaure]

Nogrod analysed that line of Lommy better than I did.

Lommy is really my prime suspect at the moment, for all reasons stated above and also for her general nervousness and tension.

There's something mighty wrong with the way Volo defends Lommy. A lot could be said about it, but I don't have the time right now. Villain? Possible.

Nogrod, I'm neither the villain nor a Hänschmann.
But, as long as you don't want to lynch me, I can live with your suspicions.

I'm away tomorrow, so I will only be able to stop by very briefly and rather early to give my vote. I hope I'll be able to read something from Brinniel by then, not to mention xyzzy.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Concerning Lommy.

Our student activist Mac did indeed raise some noteworthy points against her (#47). I would add two things. Firstly it seems that she has really spent some time analysing the henchmen position (#45). It was a bit too elaborate coming from just an innocent trying to think a bit what the baddies might have thought. It sounded like a henchman who had already thought these things through a gazillion times during the Night and now used parts of that reasoning. Secondly I'd interpret a bit more into Lommy's "There seems to be few actual points against me" than Mac who only says it's suspiciously unspecific or half-hearted. I mean, why would an innocent phrase herself like that? Lommy's is the way a baddie thinks.

I messed up going to sleep. (I'll go after this post, promise.)

Here just to say that I don't agree at all with this point. It is completely reasonable for an innocent person to try to figure out why the baddies kill the person they kill - we all know that. I myself thought of the reasons exactly the same way and I'm innocent, so to me at least that makes Lommy no more guilty.

Are you saying that Lommy's guess is more correct than the other guesses so far and therefore showing that you also thought like this? That would mean that you have a part in selecting Menel as the victim.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am starting to be confused on some things and that's a poor omen, Comrades. But let's follow the plan and fulfill it by 150%, as I said...
Wait. We have not prepared the plan. Okay, so let's move step by step.

Comrade Volo - the idea of Comrades Mac and Nogrod being villains or henchmen or both does not sound as illogical, however, if either of them is a villain, it's not of that much concern to us (quite the opposite - we should ignore him, as he would probably try to Cobble us). But Comrade Mac seems quite genuine to me lately, and though his behavior at start could have been one of a Villain (especially his reaction to Comrade Brinniel about lynching Comrade Nogrod), the way he acted toDay and in the second part of yesterDay makes me think that he is not a villain (his behavior is very nontypical for a villain). Comrade Nogrod acted half-in-role half-seriously from the very beginning, which a Villain could do, but his contributions were helpful and logical ones. Anyway: I don't suspect any of these two of being henchmen, at least at this time - at maximum, one of them could be a villain.
Speaking of that, Comrade Volo's chaotic and dark-horsish behavior could also be that of a Villain. But again, the Villain is probably not of much importance to us. Only - as Comrade Nogrod now pointed out - if he is counted among the Henchmen in the final count. However, I wouldn't even play with the idea of lynching Comrade Xyzzy, at least until he shows. If he shows.

But Comrade Lommy did not at all convince me of her innocence. Quite the opposite, her behavior resembles one of an imperialist agent surrounded by KGB. Especially this:

Originally Posted by товарищ ломмы

Well, if you want to phrase it like that... Of course I'd prefer you guys focusing your energies elsewhere and not accusing/suspecting an innocent girl - especially as we must lynch a baddie toDay if we don't want to lose.

Comrade Lommy started to act a little bit touchy now, and in the quoted part she as a henchman could very, let's say, classically, try to draw away our attention to the fact that "we must lynch a baddie today", and thus forgetting the matter that was discussed before - her suspiciousness. As a henchman, saying this "wise counsel" would help her to disappear out of our sight and hide. Second thing that does not fit to me much is the behavior - if she were someone else, her touched attitude would be okay. "Well, if you want to phrase it like that... Of course I'd prefer you guys focusing your energies elsewhere and not accusing/suspecting an innocent girl." But innocent Lommy does not behave like that when she is questioned.

All in all: let's wait for those who have not spoken already (Comrade Brinniel... and I am not even thinking about Comrade xyzzy). I'll probably have to vote early in the morning, once again (after some nine hours), and won't be back from then; and don't expect anything much long from me in the morning (depends on how I wake up, but...). If you post too long things I might not even be able to read them fully, which would be indeed discouraging.

X-ed with Nogrod's last one and Volo.