Tol-In-Gaurhoth XXXVIII - E.T.T.T.S.O.W.I.

[Macalaure]

Seriously, I didn't see that coming. If the innocents don't happen to take Menel early, the wolves do it.

Menel only said he trusted Legate and was very slightly suspicious of Brinniel and me. He's basically a safe kill who doesn't leave any real trails to anyone, which is somewhat suspicious. I mean, there was not much suspicion around on this Day One. Lommy was suspected to a degree and some were wary of Brinniel. Nobody was under serious pressure (except Shasta and xyzzy, of course). Why did they not choose a bolder kill? The way I see it, either one or both of the wolves are among Lommy/Brinniel/xyzzy and he/she/they maybe subjectively overestimated the pressure towards him/her/them, or the wolves are playing very, very safe, which would probably also point towards Lommy or Brinniel. It's also possible that there's a mastermind like Nogrod or Legate among the wolves and they want us to think they are overly careful to distract us, but I have a feeling that is not the case (at least I will discard that possibility for now). Where do these thoughts leave Volo? I'm not sure yet. He's still a dark horse to me.

By the way, what are the rules about people who fail to show up for two days?

I'm almost certain that there is at least one baddie hiding behind the Shasta-voters.

There were only three non-Shasta-voters, Volo. Unless you are a baddie yourself, your claim is correct.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

There were only three non-Shasta-voters, Volo. Unless you are a baddie yourself, your claim is correct.

Legate: Shasta
Lommy: Xyzzy
Brinniel:Shasta
Mac: Shasta
Volo: Xyzzy
Nogrod: Shasta

No vote:
Menel, Shasta, Xyzzy

Unless Lommy and Xyzzy are the baddies, that is.

But I was meaning you [Mac], Brinniel and Legate there, I had forgot that Nogrod also voted Shasta as it didn't make a big difference.

I'm suspecting everybody at the moment, though I won't vote Xyzzy if he doesn't appear. Lynching him is a 50/50 win/lose situation and a waste of the game really.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Very interesting, as I would absolutely agree with Comrade Mac's post - I can subscribe it. The good progressive approach of our young brainpower indeed does its work! Very true; Comrade Lommy was somewhat suspicious already yesterday and now, given the kill that was made, I'd indeed think this might point to her. Also Comrade Brinniel could be, with some of her behaviour, a possible servant of the reactionary powers, though here I am a little less convinced than in Comrade Lommy's case. Comrade Nogrod has been quite reasonable this far, and unless we have very strange pair of henchmen here, I don't find it likely that he will be behind this nightly kill.

I could also add that one of the reasons to choose our valiant, but cruelly slain Comrade Menel could have been that he did not vote at all. Thus, he would not raise any suspicion (if he voted for a henchman - though this was not technically possible, unless Comrade xyzzy was a henchman, but even then I doubt any of us would consider that being a reason, as Comrade xyzzy has not appeared at all), and also he could not be attacked today based on how he voted yesterday.

I really hope Comrade Xyzzy is not one of the henchmen, since then it would look really bad for us. Maybe under these circumstances the "two day no-show" rule could be of help, though, as we know, our company has very far to being большая, quite the opposite - there's too few of us and every person counts. On the other hand, getting rid of a lurking threat in the form of Comrade Xyzzy would be a good idea. But definitely (at least if he does not show): no lynching, only if we really were not sure.

Originally Posted by Comrade Macalaure

Where do these thoughts leave Volo? I'm not sure yet. He's still a dark horse to me.

I could subscribe even this, also after Comrade Volo's posts today. Given how the votes went, there is the interesting possibility that if he and Comrade Lommy were the henchmen, then Comrade Volo's words:

I'm almost certain that there is at least one baddie hiding behind the Shasta-voters.

could be something far more sinister than it seems. But this is only a possibility and speculation, and we, Comrades, have to rely on stronger evidence. Because, as it was noted before, the numbers do not favour us much and there are still two henchmen and one villain among us...

So, what do you others, Comrades, have to say?

[Thinlómien]

So, what do you others, Comrades, have to say?

Well, the first thing I have to say is that I don't quite understand where all this suspicion towards me has come from. There seems to be few actual points against me, but still most people seem to be suspecting me. I can't help thinking that there's one (or two) henchmen hiding in this ill-based consensus of suspicion and laughing to themself/ves.

The way I see it, either one or both of the wolves are among Lommy/Brinniel/xyzzy and he/she/they maybe subjectively overestimated the pressure towards him/her/them, or the wolves are playing very, very safe, which would probably also point towards Lommy or Brinniel.

Would killing Menel have been a safe kill from Brinn? No. For if the wolves are after the super science seer or whatever, Menel's death points to Brinn. Brinnwolf would have known she'd take a risk because if Menel truly was the seer, it would point to her guilt. I think your logic is flawy.

I can see many motives for killing Menel. I think, like Mac, that the wolves might have wanted to play it safe and try not to leave tracks. I would also like to point out that he was not really suspected by anyone (I said I had a vague bad feeling about him) so it is possible that he was chosen simply to remove someone who was generally trusted ie some innocent person who had small chance of getting lynched on the next day. In a small village like this numbers count a lot.

Secondly, with a small number of players there's a higher chance of wolves and ranger targeting the same person. The wolves might have picked Menel because they thought the ranger wouldn't protect Menel. (Why they'd assume that, I don't know.) The wolves can win this game quite quickly if they succeed in all their kills and avoid getting lynched.

Also, I know there are some players - like Nogrod and myself and Mac probably falls into that category as well - who as wolves dislike killing contributive & "dangerous" people in the beginning of the game unless they have some serious inclination they're gifted. Menel was one of the quietest villagers yesterday. So could we think Menel's death might point to Nogrod, myself or Mac or anyone else who confesses disliking killing vocal/contributive players in the early game? For many wolves, in a small village like this, could take the more or less safer path of killing the dangerous players, but instead these wolves chose Menel, who's not generally considered a "dangerous" player.

Now I know I'm innocent, I think Nogrod's rather an ordo or the villain than a wolf and that leaves me with Mac. I wouldn't be surprised if another of the wolves was Mac and he would have told his partner in crime that he thinks they should not kill any of the "dangerous" players but rather someone else and they would have chosen Menel...? Now before you accuse me of it I'm not claiming Menel's death means Mac's guilty, I just think that might be the case, especially as I've grown a bit wary of him otherwise as well. There's something forced in his tone and somehow the comment:

Seriously, I didn't see that coming.

sounded very wolvish to me. I can't tell why but it just made a chill run down my spine. Sounds just like something a wolf would say...

Others I think are somewhat suspicious are Volo and Brinn. I can't really say more about it (except that we might be overlooking the most obvious reason to Menel's death which is Brinn's guilt), before I've had a closer look at their posts. It's more like a gut-feeling.

Legate's the only one I really don't suspect of any kind of wickedness. He seems quite genuine. Yet I must say I'm a bit worried about this consensus of trusting him...

Of Xyzzy I really can't say anything, except that I agree with Volo that it would be foolish to lynch him toDay when we have to catch a wolf in order to survive.

[Volo]

Oh my! Lommy, you said exactly what I'm thinking. Now I'll look even more suspicious. I would have said it earlier, but I was waiting for the baddies to possibly make a slip. So either you made the slip or are innocent.

My first thoughts about Menel were that he's the Scientist. He felt like he really wanted to stay alive and was excited about his role. Whoever killed him did nastily as Menel has a history of dying young, same goes from Shasta who actually tries to play at times, unlike Xyzzy (Sorry, I'm not trying to offend you, but that's how it feels.).

The lynching of Shasta felt nasty, like I have said several times before. Very fake. I tried to come up with some points about the players but I must say that I couldn't. It's all on the gut-level.

No, not totally. Now that Lommy has mentioned it, we can't wait for more hints of this type.
I think that Mac is most probably a baddie and Noggie maybe the boss. I have little idea of who the second baddie is, but I do feel that he/she's not showing himself/herself to the boss.

I might be imagining things, which I doubt. Noggie and Mac seem to have a discussion on their own level during the first day telling each-other their roles (or at least hinting).
Their rather jokingly "competition" is a good cover on day1 as it brings some points and a space to move but doesn't truly make the person think of who the baddies are. They have both written rather impressive looking posts with little content.

Legate and Brinniel were my other two main suspects but they feel more genuine.

I'm going to sleep, the sun is down.

[Macalaure]

On one thing I agree with Lommy: if Brinn was a baddie and over-nervous, she probably wouldn't have killed Menel. Menel said very little, but within the little that he said, he slightly suspected her.

But otherwise....

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, the first thing I have to say is that I don't quite understand where all this suspicion towards me has come from. There seems to be few actual points against me, but still most people seem to be suspecting me.

"There seems to be few actual points against me"? sounds suspiciously unspecific. If you think there are actual points against you, then why don't you defend yourself against them? This statement appears kind of half-hearted. It appears as if you either think you can't defend yourself against them or you don't want to draw everybody's attention to them again.
It also sounds like "Oh, look, there are only few points against me, please suspect someone else"

Originally Posted by Lommy

Also, I know there are some players - who as wolves dislike killing contributive & "dangerous" people in the beginning of the game

True, but Menel didn't really fall into this category, because one could have expected that he would have contributed more on the following days.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I wouldn't be surprised if another of the wolves was Mac and he would have told his partner in crime that he thinks they should not kill any of the "dangerous" players but rather someone else and they would have chosen Menel...? Now before you accuse me of it I'm not claiming Menel's death means Mac's guilty, I just think that might be the case, especially as I've grown a bit wary of him otherwise as well.

So you wouldn't be surprised if I was a wolf, but you don't want to be accused of thinking I'm guilty, but you've still grown wary of me. Now if this doesn't sound a little like the classical "He's very suspicious, but not that much".

Originally Posted by Lommy

There's something forced in his tone and somehow the comment: "Seriously, I didn't see that coming." sounded very wolvish to me. I can't tell why but it just made a chill run down my spine. Sounds just like something a wolf would say...

I explained it in the very next sentence. Menel complained before that people tend to be too quick to suspect him, and now he survives the Day and immediately falls prey to the Night. Nope, I didn't see that coming.

A chill down your spine?


Volo, I don't know anything about Nogrod's role, of course, but I can assure you we didn't exchange any hints yesterday.

[Thinlómien]

"There seems to be few actual points against me"? sounds suspiciously unspecific. If you think there are actual points against you, then why don't you defend yourself against them? This statement appears kind of half-hearted. It appears as if you either think you can't defend yourself against them or you don't want to draw everybody's attention to them again.

There are, as far as I know, three actual points against me. One is that I'm friendly. Second is that I'm stating the obvious. Well, what can I say? "Trust me, I'm not friendly, actually I'm quite evil!"? The third point was that as a wolf I might have killed Menel. I can hardly judge that - for some reason I haven't needed to think about it very much. I don't deny that if I was a wolf I might have killed Menel, but as a wolf I might have killed someone else as well.

It also sounds like "Oh, look, there are only few points against me, please suspect someone else"

Well, if you want to phrase it like that... Of course I'd prefer you guys focusing your energies elsewhere and not accusing/suspecting an innocent girl - especially as we must lynch a baddie toDay if we don't want to lose.

True, but Menel didn't really fall into this category, because one could have expected that he would have contributed more on the following days.

I think that can be debated... There are no really silent people in this village. Maybe Xyzzy, but I can't see the wolves killing him as he's such an advantage to them.

So you wouldn't be surprised if I was a wolf, but you don't want to be accused of thinking I'm guilty, but you've still grown wary of me.

I did not say I don't want to be accused of thinking you're guilty. I said that I don't want to be accused of making a conclusion that "because Menel died, Mac must be guilty".

And now I'm going to sleep, but I'll be back.

[Nogrod]

So idealists are killing paranoids already? That's what I could have told you a long time ago. Those people are dangerous as we all true conservatives know. Just look at the mess these radicals, hippies and other reckless castes of the society bring about.

I have a thought or two but let me first make an open question - and you parrot listen closely.

Does anyone here know exactly what the numbers are at the moment? If the baddies do overpower us when they reach the same number with us civilians then it would be the most important to know where we stand at the moment.

There are seven of us alive on this island. Two are henchmen and one is a villain. But is the villain counted as a civilian or as a baddie in the tallies which decide when we win or lose?

So are we now in 5-2 or 4-3? If the latter we must get a henchman toDay (unless the bodyguard wins toNight) or we lose, if the former, we can afford at least one more mistake. That's a big difference when we consider fex. Xyzzy.

And the rule about the non-appearing villagers would help us as well. Do you hear my words Pooky?

Okay. That's the general part. I'll be soon back with a few more specific thoughts...

[Nogrod]

Concerning Lommy.

Our student activist Mac did indeed raise some noteworthy points against her (#47). I would add two things. Firstly it seems that she has really spent some time analysing the henchmen position (#45). It was a bit too elaborate coming from just an innocent trying to think a bit what the baddies might have thought. It sounded like a henchman who had already thought these things through a gazillion times during the Night and now used parts of that reasoning. Secondly I'd interpret a bit more into Lommy's "There seems to be few actual points against me" than Mac who only says it's suspiciously unspecific or half-hearted. I mean, why would an innocent phrase herself like that? Lommy's is the way a baddie thinks.

A civilian protests that the others have got it wrong or she calls for the actual suspicions to be brought forwards so that she can answer them if necessary. But a baddie then, she underlines the fact that there are not enough actual points against her and thence the others should focus elsewhere. Who - as an innocent - would say that becasue you don't have a good case leave me alone? An innocent says, because I'm innocent you should leave me alone for you're hurting our common cause.