WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Nerwen]

Kath, when you voted Sally, you had this to say:

++SALLY

Because of the comments around The Might mostly I think. We all know that everything we assume about who he dreamt of is just that, an assumption, so this seems an odd comment:

Quote:
I just felt the need to throw that out there.

Now, I disagree. I think Sally actually made quite a good suggestion. I believe it’s worth thinking about what the Might said again. In case people’s memories are getting hazy, here are the facts:

The Might did practically nothing the first Day, finally popping in to vote Nogrod (#50) on the grounds that it was his "instinct".

On the second Day, he made comments about four people:

He made a sudden about-face on Nogrod, again claiming it was based on “feeling” (#86).

He said he thought Legate was a good guy, but that this was based on examining his posts (#86).

(He states his support for these two again at #117.)

Apparently following Nogrod’s lead, he expressed suspicion of Macalaure (#91), which he repeated at #95, this time saying it was because

Originally Posted by The Might

After these posts Macalaure seems pretty suspicious.
First he posts, saying that he must quickly leave and has no time to comment on anything else, so it looks to me as if he was kind of in a hurry.
Still, he finds time 5 minutes later to post again in a quite defensive trying to explain why Nogrod and Gil ended up as those he suspected most.

He voted against Mac at #117.

In passing he said he found Kath suspicious, but didn’t say why (#117).

We know the Seer only dreamed twice before he was foully murdered, so no more than two of his comments can be based on direct knowledge. In the case of Legate and Mac, he gave only fairly slight reasons for his beliefs. For the other two, Kath and Nogrod, none at all.

He says he is

not entirely sure

about Kath, but

quite certain

about Mac (#117).

That sounds as if he doesn't have any special knowledge about Kath.

The consensus view (not sure who said what, and I don’t have time to check) seems to be that The Might probably dreamed of Nogrod (innocent), plus either Legate (innocent) or Mac (guilty).

That seems a reasonable conclusion, and yet– what’s really worrying me now is that when Sally said,

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Also I'm not terribly at ease with the fact that everyone assumes Might has dreamed about certain people. Now it does make sense from Might's posts that he DID dream about Nogrod, but perhaps it was just his voting of Mac that cleared him in Might's eyes. Besides Nogrod however, and even that is fuzzy, I am very uncertain as to who Might might have dreamed of. I just felt the need to throw that out there.

Kath suddenly went after her (#214).

So, I'm not liking the look of you right now, Kath.

I also want to look at Naria, if I have time.

[Nerwen]

One thing though: Kath did state explicitly that her reason for voting Sally was Sally's caution against making assumptions.

Would she be that obvious if she were a balrog? I don't know.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay. Since Naria has appeared and voted, so no modfiring on her, I'm 99% going to vote for her. I'm inclined to think both Shasta and Kath innocent. They both had exchanges with Brinniel in the way that it would be really strange for balrogs to openly chat like that. And also, Naria's scarce appearance makes her a very dangerous quantity to count with in the game. And if her vote on me was a balrog's retaliation on my suspicions of her, then the more.

Originally Posted by Naria

This might be his style of play, but I'm not ready to just accept that either.

Which seems quite stubborn.

What do you others think?

Oh, I'm leaving now, and I guess I'll be back around... eh... four (or three and half or something) hours or so before DL. Maybe I will get a chance to sneak in once again on a computer in the school library, but that's not for sure - one is lucky when there is a free computer...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay. Since Naria has appeared and voted, so no modfiring on her, I'm 99% going to vote for her. I'm inclined to think both Shasta and Kath innocent. They both had exchanges with Brinniel in the way that it would be really strange for balrogs to openly chat like that. And also, Naria's scarce appearance makes her a very dangerous quantity to count with in the game. And if her vote on me was a balrog's retaliation on my suspicions of her, then the more.

These are all good points you make, Legate.

What I don't like is that twice she's voted to lynch people without giving proper reasons. That could mean she hasn't had time to read through the posts and was casting "donkey votes" to avoid being mod-fired. However, in her vote against me (#140) she says I've been bothering her "for some time". So... has she been paying more attention than she's making out?

There is this to consider, though:

Originally Posted by Kath

And Naria, I don't think a balrog would have such confusion over how many Night's we've had so I guess she's eliminated.

Still, I'll think about it.

[Nerwen]

Something I'd like to mention now, in case I die toDay or toNight– I have an impression that Kate and Legate support and defend each other an awful lot. People may want to read through their posts on previous Days.

They can't both be balrogs.

Are they the lovers?

Edit: Don't assume that, if so, one of them's a balrog. I'm not sure how the love-triangle-whatever-thing works.

[Nogrod]

Interesting thoughts Nerwen. Sadly I don´t have time or energy to go deep in to them but I´m feeling quite good about your contributions right now.

And I do agree with you wholeheartedly. We really should remember that practically no one TM spoke about we can´t be sure about.

It´s also interesting to consider the choices of the balrogs: Volo, The Might, Gil-Galad. And look at the accuracy! A cobbler, the seer, the hunter...

I´d say that´s not too bad!

It´s also interesting to see fex. both myself and Legate still alive, untouched by those creatures of fire and flame. So have they been afraid of the ranger or is Legate the remaining one?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

They can't both be balrogs.
Are they the lovers?
Edit: Don't assume that, if so, one of them's a balrog. I'm not sure how the love-triangle-whatever-thing works.

Allright. Maybe we should then speak openly about our beliefs about Legate and Kath - and anyhow Nerwen brought it to the fore already so it´s not hidden anymore.

I thought that already yesterDay. But as I was afraid that the lover-triangle would have been the cobbler - the hunter - an ordo* I was afraid to speak it out (thinking Legate as the hunter then) as there were chances the balrogs hadn´t noticed their seeming alliance.

The dilemma number 1 now is whether we should think the other part of the duo to be a balrog or not. According to that belief we should then either try to protect them or lynch them...

Dilemma no. 2 is for the ranger to make the decision conserning #1 if they´re still alive in a situation where I´m probably also alive.

With only one balrog left the balrog knows exactly what the situation is.

The fundamental dilemma surely goes: do we have a correct interpretation here about The Legate and Kath as lovers. We can be wrong about it as well.



*That would have been quite balanced as both the cobbler and the hunter are double-edged creatures able of doing good and harm to the side they represent.

[Mithalwen]

Sorry late and have much to catch up on. I will be back later ... I think Legate / Kath is plausible..

My late vote - so sorry .... was ready to vote earlier for Brin for suspicions expressed earlier but then got seduced by the lets keep the talkers argument and Sally seemed odd .. her good bye post decided me she was a hapless innocent .. but not quite in time..... sorry

[Nerwen]

Nogrod I've been thinking about them for a while, too. I didn't like to say anything, for the same reasons you gave, including the doubt over their roles (which was one of the things that decided me in voting Brinniel).

But I thought I'd better speak up in case I'm killed soon, which I think is on the cards.

If they're innocent (lovers or not), I've probably just sicked the last balrog onto them. However, we do employ a Ranger to deal with these cases.

The fundamental dilemma surely goes: do we have a correct interpretation here about The Legate and Kath as lovers. We can be wrong about it as well.

Of course.

Kath has a good reason to defend Legate (and you)– if you two are innocent then it's more likely that The Might dreamed about you, and therefore couldn't have dreamed she was guilty.

Same with Legate, only in reverse.

Or they could have just been acting out of honest belief in each other's innocence, with no ulterior motives. They've always put up pretty convincing arguments, as I recall.

I don't know. It's highly ambiguous. Arguably, somebody else might conclude that the lovers were you and I, since you've defended me a few times.

The question right now is, who the hell do we lynch tonight?

Edit: crossed with Mith and Nogrod