WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[The Might]

Well, hate to tell you I told you so, but I told you so.
Short post to explain what i did.
First night - dreamed of Legate, knew he was a ranger so quite important.
First day - suspected Nogord because of his repeated attacks and suspicions against me.
Second night - made the good decision to dream of Mac instead of Nogrod, because I felt something was wrong about him.
Second day - probably the mistake was my very sudden change from neutral to Nogrod and Legate friendly and aggresive towards Mac
Second night - dreamed of Kath, since I suspected her, turns out she was an ordo actually.
Unfortunately got lynched due to my more or less obvious seer behaviour Day 2.

All in all, good game everyone, nice to see the wolves lost!!!

Yours, Earendil.

[Thinlómien]

Well, Might, it made me and Aganzir laugh quite a lot that you decided to dream both of your parents actually. Unfortunately I decided I won't tell you those detail because it might have revealed more than a seer dream should...

[Aganzir]

Congratulations for winning, miners. I can but agree with Lommy; quite hilarious.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, Might, it made me and Aganzir laugh quite a lot that you decided to dream both of your parents actually.

Some kind of a sixth sense, surely.

Everybody played so well, but I was quite surprised especially by the skill of all the newbie players. Wonderful, what else can one say?

This was actually so typical me; no, I don't think I'll have time to co-mod the game now that it's exam week coming and there's loads of schoolwork etc... And guess if I managed to stay away from computer even one day.

Congratulations also to Volo for nearly winning! You almost did it! ;P

[The Might]

Strangely I just ahd a thought of Legate telling me "I am your father!"...

[Kath]

I can't believe I died the Day before we won. But it was fun watching the last Day! Lommy told me you'd got it right before the end of Day but I was so hoping you'd got it! Congratulations.

[Brinniel]

Yeah, so my death was very stupid. Stupid on my part, that is.

I had this bad feeling that Gil could be the hunter, but I picked him anyway, silly me. I was debating between him and Legate, but now that I know Legate protected himself that Night, I don't know if picking him would've been much better...

Argh. Days later, and I'm still banging my head against the wall for that one. You'd think after 3 1/2 times of being a werewolf (or whatever), I would know better by now. I think you could make a decently long list of what not to do as shown by me.

Oh yeah, and I also learned to never make theories about lovers. Because you'll always be wrong.

Night PMs coming up...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Oh, and one more thing. I wondered why the Balrogs did not attack me or Nogrod, seeing that we were both innocent and we were, as far as I see it, quite active and helpful (most times *coughNerwencough* Now I verified my thought that whenever I start to make such an analysis, it is wrong. This is for the second time I did that).

[Macalaure]

I don't think I've ever been so avidly watching a game of werewolf after I've been killed. Congrats to all the players, especially Nerwen and the Might, who made excellent debuts!

Well, when I congratulate all the players I should maybe exclude myself. This really was not my best showing, I think. I was shorter on time than I expected last week, and much that I posted was rather rushed and not well thought through. At least I was right in suspecting Legate to be gifted (as you will see when Brinn posts the PMs) - we abstained from trying to kill Legate in Night 2 because we thought he'd be the hunter who would've killed me in turn.

And finally, the most congratulations go to Lommy and Aganzir, for a great game and hilarious narrations.

[Macalaure]

I wondered why the Balrogs did not attack me or Nogrod

I can only talk about Night 2, but, as you see above, we thought you were the hunter and after me. We didn't kill Nogrod because we thought that his suspicions of Kath and Mith might be helpful for a while.

Also, if you attack the most helpful villagers, there's of course always a higher risk that they're protected by the ranger.

[Brinniel]

Night 1

Yeah, I don't really have any PMs saved for the first Night. It was basically hellos between Mac and me. Naria didn't show up until Night 2.

Night 2

Getting down to business:

Originally Posted by Naria

Funny how Gil usually pins the wolf and everyone just dismisses his agruments. Ah well better for us!!

Okay, I have read through the posts and the ones that stand out the most to me are Noggies and Miths. Mith for saying one to many things pointing towards Seerism and Nogrod for his little chat with Rikae at the end, possible Seer? I would however, lean more towards Mith.

We should get some kind of plan for next day. Brinn, I think you are doing pretty good. I may beg the question to everyone why Gil's post is so confusing and a few other things...that way it may put distance between myself and Brinn. Mac, you don't have too much of a problem, but it looks like a few people are going to push for you. And I think, if the Seer is Noggy, you may be dreamt of this Night.

So whom to feast on this Night. Any other candidates?

Originally Posted by Mac

While Naria is perfectly safe still, and Brinn might only face minor suspicions tomorrow after the votes have been analysed, I have a feeling I might end up being under pressure. Rikae repeated that I've been playing too nice and several are slightly suspicious because of the way I commented on the Rikae-commenters. I also misunderstood the gifted comments of Nogrod and Volo and messed that part up. I didn't exactly help our cause today, I fear. You're right, Naria, I will probably be dreamt of soon. I don't think I'll survive for very long in this game, so I guess you two would be well-advised to keep some distance from me the following days. Don't suspect me too much, but unassertively disagree with my points.


And who shall we kill?

I'd say no to TM, Nerwen, and Sally, because they're new and should get at least two days to play.

I'd say no to Lhuna, who didn't get to post much.

I'd say no to Shasta, who got killed too early recently, and because he will usually end up with some suspicions.

I'd say no to Gil, because I think he will receive some suspicions, too, because of his vote.

I'd say no to Mith, because I killed her first in the last game I was a wolf. I haven't checked her carefully enough to judge whether she could be the seer.

This leaves me only with Kath, Nogrod, Volo, and Legate.

Even though I'm usually scared of Kath, I think she might be useful for us, at least for now.

Nogrod, Volo, and Legate are most dangerous to me at the moment, I think.

The mutual suspicion between Kath and Nogrod is good for us, so Nogrod should be kept, I think.

I know it is hard to say it, but Volo is maybe least harmful to me, because fewer people actually listen to him (let's hope he's no seer again).

This leaves me with Legate. I also think he has never been killed early so far. Do you think he'd be a good candidate for the ranger to protect?

Originally Posted by Brinn

I agree with Mac: Our newbies Might, Nerwen, and Sally should be left alone for now. I've been killed on Night 2 as a newbie more than once, and it can be quite discouraging. But after toNight, I say they're up for grabs.

Shasta- Killing Shasta would be pure cruel. He gets killed early too much and I know he's been very frustrated about it. I can sympathise.

Lhuna- Would probably be our safest kill. But I'd rather not kill her when she's only posted once with no vote. I've only played with her one other time and I was responsible for her death then (though with reversed roles). But I'd like to see more of Lhuna before eliminating her.

Gil- It's a funny thing about Gil. Indeed, it's true he often pins the right people and gets ignored (I don't think it's the first time he's pinned me). I think it's because of how he goes about his accusations (strong is the best word I can find for it). The problem with his accusations of me is that Volo is right; they're very contradictory. Like always, Gil is a smart one to keep around simply because he never fails to confuse everyone.

Mith- I have a hard time with Mith. I usually think she's either gifted or a wolf, and most often she turns out to be an ordinary. It's possible she's a gifted, but I'm not sure. While I wouldn't mind killing her, I think I'd like to keep her around for at least another Day.

Kath- We have only heard one post from her, but so far she finds both Mac and me to be innocentish. I'm not anxious to kill off someone who is on 2/3 of the balrogs side. Of course, after all that's happened we don't know if she's changed her mind, but for now it's best to let her be. I agree she could be potentially useful.

Nogrod- Would be a very bad idea to kill him. Not only is he heavily suspected, but he heavily suspects Mac. While I don't get any seer vibes from him, it's possible he might be a hunter or ranger. But under the circumstances, he's one of my last choices for a kill.

Legate- Well, I feel he's been trying to be very helpful to the village. I really can't tell whether he is a gifted or not...I need more time. I don't know if he's the best choice to kill; he thinks me innocentish and heavily suspects Mac. It's quite possible that Legate might be the ranger's choice for toNight, simply because he gives off an innocentish vibe. Hard to say.

Volo- I think Volo is our best candidate. He spoken up, but not enough to leave too many tracks. His suspicions of Mac came from one small comment...not as worrysome as other players. Killing him would be a fair choice, and I don't think his death should absolutely condemn any of us.

Originally Posted by Naria

Lhuna=pure evil. I have played in a few games with her and if she is left alive for too long she can cause some crazy, blindsiding damage. There is a reason why she picked up the nick name of Lhuna-tic. But, she hasn't said or done anything yet to warrant our wrath..so she be left alone for now.

Legate and Volo...hmm yeah, one of those would be our best bet.

Volo would leave less tracks back to us.

Legate is on your butt Mac, but I don't think that it would be too hard for you to weasel your way out of.

So we leave Legate and go for Volo? I'm ok with it.

I understand the feelings surrouding Mith(she usually does turn out to be an ordo), but from a few things she has said in her posts toDay makes me wonder if she could possibly be a gifted this time...meh, maybe next Day will shed more light.

Originally Posted by Mac

These are just my notes. I had no time to put them into something better-looking.

#28+#30
Legate defends Nogrod, starting with "you never know" and ending with "he gives out normal vibes". A seer who dreamt of an ordo and carefully defends him from suspicion? Nogrod is a likely Night-One dream.

#36+#38
a bit about Nogrod
Volo agrees with him that Rikae isn't gifted
clears up that he said it to protect her from being killed (I still don't understand this)

#47+#48
Volo is suspicious of Gil (who might become a good scapegoat, BUT: people won't lynch him just because he's weird, not in this game now)
disagrees with Nogrod about Kath (good, he's part of the Nog-Kath discussion)
is really upset about Rikae, votes her

#60+#63
Legate is suspicious about me. The reason he gives I think I can "weasle" myself out of (by admitting them and explain in "all honesty"), but it will draw everyone's attention towards them.
again, sees nothing suspicious about Nogrod, without(!) giving any reason (and adding that he is not easy)
would like to vote me most
uh-oh: "maybe I will look at him totally differently when I have time to read all his posts in quiet and calm state" Do you read that the way I do?

In my opinion, Legate is the seer. The way he treats Nogrod made me raise an eyebrow, but what he said about me in the end leaves no doubt, at least to me.
It's possible that he's faking it for some reason (hunter(!)/cobbler) and it's not unlikely that the ranger picked it up as well (and even if he didn't, Legate is alwazs a good one to protect).

If Legate is the seer and survives, he's definitely going to dream of me, so I'm slightly scared.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Hmm...looking at it, it's quite possible Legate is a seer. But then, why would he make it so obvious? Unless he's trying to make hints to the ranger....I don't know.

Legate may be dangerous to keep alive, but I'm wary about going after him for a kill because I really think he may be a likely candidate for protection. It would really suck if our first kill is the same pick as the ranger's. I also worry that if Legate did die, others may suspect Mac got nervous (though perhaps you could manage to weasle yourself out of that).

I doubt a ranger would pick Volo toNight...he would be our safest bet. My vote still goes for him. Depending on how the Day goes, we can still consider Legate for Night 3.

Originally Posted by Mac

You are right - he is too obvious. The more I think about it, the more I think he's the hunter, and I wouldn't like to step into his trap. Or maybe he's a seer who's faking to be the hunter who's faking to be the seer? Do you think I'm overcomplicating this?

In any way: he's gifted.

If he's the seer, then I'm done unless we kill him tonight. But of course, even if we try to kill him, he might be protected tonight. We could kill him the next night (and might have to if he's the seer and more obvious), but maybe he's protected then. In that case, you two need to be careful not to make a good dream victim for the next night tomorrow (but you probably weren't planning to do that anyway ).

Let's go for the sinister seer instead.

Yeah, so killing our cobbler probably wasn't our best choice. But considering Legate protected himself that Night, picking him could've been much more disastarious. Funny how we seemed to think he was a seer or hunter, but we never thought of Legate as the ranger. Though at that point, I know I wasn't even sure if the ranger could protect himself...

[The Might]

So why did you kill me?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hehe, thanks, Balrogs, for noticing that. <3

Also, I'm sorry I didn't vote, I actually ended up getting sick last night. I just woke up about twenty minutes ago. x_x My throat's acting up again.

Anyway, good game to everyone!

[Brinniel]

Night 3

After Mac's death. Naria made the first obvious statement:

Originally Posted by Naria

We need to figure out who the Seer is toNight.

The next is some random first thoughts just after the Day ended. All before any really analysing.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I can't say how things are going to go toMorrow. I don't know if people are suddenly going to start suspecting me or you. Mac's accusations will either help or condemn me. But I wouldn't be surprised if I were next. Urgh...I probably should've voted for Mac. *hits head against the desk*

I'm pretty sure now Nogrod is not our seer. And I'm not sure Legate is either, but he could quite easily be a gifted. Legate is going to look very innocent toMorrow,I'd like to kill him, but I fear the possibility of him being the hunter. If he were, would he choose one of us?

I need to go back and look at seer/gifted clues. Though I'm thinking, if we can't find the seer, we could always try to go after the lovers....search for possible alliances. Two kills in one Night would be nice. I can't look at anything now, but I will later tonight.

Originally Posted by Naria

Hehe, do you think that Lommy would pair Nog and Legate together as the Lovers? I mean they have both been really chummy and when has Nog ever been consistenly nice to someone. I wouldn't put it past either one of them to come up with the idea that they will be totally open with their favourtism. Even if someone picked up on that, no ordo is going to point it out. Mainly for fear of not knowing if it's an ordo/ordo pair or gifted/ordo pair.

I actually wrote Naria another PM later on with many long analyses and theories in a four page PM that took two hours to write. Unfortunately when I hit "send," I got a notice saying her inbox was full. She never did see the PM until I sent it to her the next Night. But the PM did include a lot of thoughts that lead up to my kill choice:

Originally Posted by Brinn

Okay, so I just spent an hour and a half taking notes, so I hope I got something out of it:

Nogrod: He might be a gifted, but I doubt he's the seer. At first his arguments against Mac made me suspect that, but then he changed his mind and didn't even vote for him. I doubt a seer would do that. He could still look like a possible suspect to others, so I think we should leave him alone.

Mith: Could be a possible gifted as well. If she's a seer, she dreamt of Nogrod last Night because she doesn't seem to mention him yesterDay. I don't know. She didn't get a chance to participate due to RL, so I'd like to leave her alone.

Legate: Very hard to say. If he were the seer, he would probably dream of Nogrod Night 1 and Mac Night 2. He doesn't seem to suspect Mac at first yesterDay, but after a hard debate, he chooses him. If he is a seer, he's being very sneaky about it. He's a possible kill choice, but I still partly fear the chance that he's a hunter, and if he were, I'm not completely sure who he'd hunt.

The Might: If there's any chance at all he's gifted, he'd be a seer for his very major change of opinion on Nogrod and his tendency to bandwagon with him. When I think about it, it's a very newbie seerish behaviour. But then again, I'm kind of doubtful a newbie would be given the most important role. I don't know how suspicious he'll look toMorrow; he voted the right person, but it came from a bandwagon. He's a possible kill choice....I doubt he'd be protected either.

Nerwen: I really don't know. She tries to be helpful without saying too much. But I don't think she's the seer. I'd only kill her if we wanted to pick someone who won't leave much tracks.

Sally: Hasn't said enough for me to figure anything out. I think it'd be smart to leave her alive. Some people slightly suspect her, and they might fear she is an under-the-radar balrog and vote for her.

Shasta: Hasn't provided any substance. I'd leave him alone. There's a chance he could get mod-killed in the future.

Gil: I don't think he's our seer, partly because I think he would've dreamt of me already if he were. He got some votes yesterDay and could be a possible lynch candidate for toMorrow. Let's leave him be.

Kath: She's the only one I'm confident is not the seer simply because she would've already dreamt of Nogrod by now. She's gathered suspicion, so I'd choose to leave her alone too.

When it comes to gifteds, I think there's a good chance at least one of them is a newbie. After all, 1/3 of the remaining possibilites are newbies and I think Lommy would mix it up when choosing the gifteds.

About lovers. I took a look at all the possibilities and there's 34 of them. The odds are not in our favour. Most of the possibilites, I have no idea whether they could be lovers or not. I do think if none of the newbies are gifted, one is at least a lover (or maybe we have a lover and gifted among those three). If a newbie is a lover, they're probably paired with a more vocal and experienced player. Anyways, here's some combinations I had thoughts on:

Nogrod and Mith: I think it's unlikely. Mith voted for Nogrod Day 1 at a point where it was uncertain how the votes would turn.

Nogrod and Legate: I know you mentioned it, and I guess it's possible. They have been careful to suspect each other slightly, but not too much....it's almost too careful, really. These two were teamed as gifteds in the last game. They were very good at keeping their distance and won because they played together very well. The chances they're paired again are possible, but unlikely (and they're so good, it'd just be unfair ). If one of these two is the seer (more likely Legate ), then I'm sure he already dreamt of Nogrod and is being careful because he knows he's innocent.

Nogrod and Gil: This is a possible coupling. Nogrod goes back and forth on Gil, ultimately saying he's probably innocent. Gil says he finds Nogrod's behaviour irrational. Neither have voted for each other.

Mith and Legate: They make very little mention of one another, so it is a possibility.

Mith and Kath: Possibility for the same reasons above.

Legate and Might: I thought Nogrod's idea that these two were paired as balrogs interesting, though wrong. Though, what if they are paired, but as lovers? Legate sort of mentoring his newbie lover. He does say he highly suspects him, but then fails to vote for him.

Again, I don't think two quiet ones would be paired as lovers or two newbies. I do think there is a good chance one lover is a gifted.

Kill Possibilities: Legate, The Might, Mith (and I'm reluctant to choose Mith)

When I think about it, the more and more I like the idea of Legate and Might as seer/ordinary lovers. Let's just theorize if they were:

Night 1:
Legate dreams of Nogrod and tells Might of his innocence. But Legate being the experienced mentor, tells him to keep his distance toMorrow.

Day 1:
The two possibilites are Rikae and Nogrod. Knowing the latter is innocent, Legate clearly directs suspicion at Rikae and keeps distance from Might by pointing out weird behaviour in his posts. Might keeps his distance by voting Nogrod. It doesn't seem too risky since Rikae is already in the clear lead. Legate votes Rikae.

Night 2:
Legate dreams of Mac and tells Might.

Day 2:
Might still knowing he's innocent, chooses to openly change opinion of Nogrod. After all, he knows Nogrod is accurate with his suspicions of Mac and decides to help push for his lynching by backing Nogrod up. I don't know if that's the smartest of tactics, but then again he is a newbie.

Legate tries to be more subtle. Instead of making a "crusade" against Mac, he gradually suspects him more and more. He attacks Might to keep distance, using him as a number 2 suspect. It was a safe plan, since Might wasn't at risk of getting lynched at the time. And if Mac was lynched, he probably figured Might wouldn't look so suspicious and he would play with that.

--------

Okay, I feel really strong about this idea, but then again, it almost seems too easy. I've been wrong many times before. The only time I've been right about a theory this big was in Legate's game.

Okay, if Legate is the seer and doesn't get killed toNight, I think we'd still be alright. He was a bit suspicious of Kath and Sally, both of which didn't even vote. I think it'd be most likely he would dream of one of those two.

We could try to kill Legate, after all we thought he was protected last Night. But we could be wrong...it's totally possible he could be protected toNight instead (after yesterDay, he's looking pretty innocent). Then, we might be totally wrong and he could be something else, like the hunter. But even then, we might be okay because once again it's more likely he'd hunt Kath or Sally.

Or, if we're sure enough that these two are lovers, we could kill Might. I highly doubt anyone will protect him. If I'm right, we'd be taking down Legate too. But of course, if I'm wrong, Legate lives. And if Legate is protected, I don't know what happens (can a ranger protect a lover from killing himself? I don't know).

When it comes down to it, I'm all for killing either Legate or Might. I want to put my theory to the test. The question is, which one? I'm almost leaning a little more towards Might, but I'm still undecided. Let me know what you think.

In the final hours I tried to email Naria since her inbox was still full, but I realised I probably wasn't going to get in contact with her, which worried me. I'm pretty sure I actually lost sleep over this, debating whether to pick Legate or Might. In class the next day, I didn't pay any attention to the discussion but instead took notes on different scenarios that could play out, and the positives and negatives to picking one of the two. In the end, I decided Might was the smartest choice. I gave one last effort to email Naria:

Originally Posted by Brinn

I just sent The Might as our kill. Why?

-He's less likely to be protected
-If my theory is wrong, he still won't leave tons of tracks and his death might incriminate an innocent. Hopefully it won't make either of us suspicious.
-I PMed Lommy and she said if someone's protected, it will be indicated in the narration. So, if Legate's a seer, he could reveal knowing he'll die the next Night. Even worse, he could end up a ranger and reveal, resulting in the seer revealing too. We could kill the ranger, but the seer would still have an opportunity to dream of us.

I keep second-guessing myself, but I hope I made the right decision. We'll see.

A few last comments:

-If any chance I gather up a lot of suspicion toDay like Mac did, I might reveal myself as a gifted (depending on how the kill goes). I doubt it'd help save me, but if I go down, I want to at least keep it interesting. And at least it would probably draw out a gifted for you to kill.

Waiting for the narration, I was so scared...so I'm sure you'll understand how happy I was when Might turned out to be the seer. I don't know why I originally thought he was more likely to be lovers with the seer...it just seemed more plausible at the time. That, or I like to complicate things.

And yeah, when I was getting a lot of suspicion, I seriously considered revealing myself with a special role. But then the voting got close, and I decided against it.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Anyway, great game! Congrats to the victors! And thank you all, folks, for playing - this was after some time a game with more players and you all participated very well (and even those who did not appear that much had good enough contributions). And I was really surprised by all you new folks, I'd say you classified yourselves among the regular WW players here! And thanks, of course, to our Mods - for letting us play and also for these great and funny narrations!

My Ranger protection list:
Night 2 - myself
Night 3 - Kath
Night 4 - myself.

Very, erm, variable, is it?

Oh, and I am glad that I was at least right with Naria. That gives me the feeling of satisfaction.