WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, here we are again. Same old day one discussions - let's hope they don't lead us to a typical day one error...

You're forgetting that the highly analytial discussion doen't start on its own. You wouldn't have had anything to analyse if the quiet/loud discussion hadn't started before your post. I agree that the quiet/loud discussion itself rarelly leads to anything, but it does make people louder, and thence easier to analyse.

As much as you have said, I don't feel too safe with you, Rikae. The stuff you have is not special - except for the fact that you were the first to bring up such a post - anyone who bothers can write an analysis on each post and sounds reasonable, even a Wolf. And this is what a Wolf would want to write, because quite often such posts bring followers and trust. Some players don't have the nerve not to trust anybody except themselves and it's the easiest to trust a person who makes more sense than others. I hope I said this clearly.

I agree with you on Valier. She was the first person who gave out a Wolf-feeling while I was reading through the thread. There's not much to go on, but somehow both of us got the feeling that she might be a Wolf. The "lurking around" sounds nasty and somehow I have a feeling that the ones to give clear times when they can't play are Wolves.

Originally Posted by MeVolo

It might be a bit nasty to say, but usually if a quiet person isn't lynched on Day1, Day2 will be more chaotic and in the end the poor quiet fellow will be lynched then just to be on the sure side as on Day3 we discuss the louder ones more. That is if the person lynched on Day1 isn't Wolf. (Assumptions, sadly.)

Originally Posted by Rikae

Volo is right about quiets being often lynched on Day 2 (usually after an outlandish innocent gets the noose on Day 1), but fails to mention that such a reactive lynch rarely catches a wolf either. The "talk" of "loud ones" on Day 3 is usually most productive - all the more reason to avoid posting-volume-motivated lynches, in my opinion.

Here's what I was trying to say:
If people are unsure of whom to lynch on Day1 and end up lynching a loud Ordo, the person most likely to be lynched on Day2 is quiet. And probably also an Ordo - like Rikae pointed out - because the quiet/loud discussion won't end on Day1 but will continue on Day2 leading to none very thought decisions. Quiet players who survive to the later Days are more safe, because there will be much more to analyse about the loud players and Day3 -> is known for analysing and not quiet/loud discussion.
That is just an assumption based on how things usually go and I'm not saying that lynching a quiet person on Day1 is a solution to everything. All players aren't sure of whom to vote on Day1 and often claim their vote random. I think Day1 "random" votes should rather be directed at quiet players, because otherwise they'll be directed at the quiet players on later Days for paranoia more than clear thoughts.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I think that loud people make loud wolves and quiet people make quiet wolves

Except Gil-Galad. Good point though!


Legate, you make me suspect you (#33, 34) . I know you're a friendly player, but this is seems a bit too friendly, although I too would like to thank for good posts... The feeling that you're backing up others more than showing yourself is what makes me wonder. Please, would you try to say your thoughts a bit clearer.


It seems that the suspicion is leaning to Valier. Maybe what she said was just badly phrased, but she's one of suspects too.


#36, #37: I'd trust an Innocent Rikae's gut feelings about Mac. Which isn't saying much at this point... :/


Brinniel is a question mark for now.


EDIT: Xd with Legate