WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[Valier]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'd just like to talk about Kath, and her attacks on me yesterday, which I think are quite wolfish:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But that is not what happened, Valier. I wasn't explaining why I defended myself, I was giving reasons why I thought Kath might be a wolf. I said so at the top of my post. Do you actually read these things properly?

The top quote to me sounds like you are trying to make Kath look guilty because she accused you, but you in turn are doing the same. So her "attacks" on you could not be warrented? She was only giving reasons why she thought you were a wolf, aren't you doing the same thing?

And yes for the most part I do read "these things" properly! It is super early in the morning here for me and I am trying as hard as I can to be useful. So my day and vote are not wasted!!

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Valier

The top quote to me sounds like you are trying to make Kath look guilty because she accused you, but you in turn are doing the same. So her "attacks" on you could not be warrented? She was only giving reasons why she thought you were a wolf, aren't you doing the same thing?

*sigh* Here we go again. Valier, I did not think Kath guilty because she accused me. I thought she was guilty because of the nature of her accusation. Do you not understand the difference?

I thought there was a real chance she might be a wolf, so I wanted to discuss it. Then she responded, after which I decided it was less likely she was a wolf. That's all.

I am getting rather sick of you throwing accusations around based on either obvious misreadings or nothing at all.

Now how about you answer my question from earlier. What is so suspicious about The Might?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

OT: I'm sorry to hear you're not well, Saucepan Man.

Thank you, but actually I’m fine. It’s my internet connection that keeps dying. I was trying to express it ‘in character’.

Originally Posted by morm

Although now I'm looking at things a bit differently...Would the wolves, assuming Nerwen is a wolf, have all voted for one of their own? If not, it doesn't make sense to kill Shasta. ARGH! I feel I keep talking myself in circles...

Hehe, I know the feeling. Something weird was happening towards the end of Day 1, I am sure, but it’s got me completely confused. As to your substantive point, if Nerwen is a Wolf, it doesn’t make any sense that they would kill Shasta. If NogWolf’s behaviour was down to the fact that NerWolf’s head was also on the block, Shasta’s proven innocence takes away any cover that she might have had in that regard. I don’t think a Wolfish Nerwen would have killed Shasta.

Originally Posted by Boro

Wolves enter into a village with a tremendous advantage, they know who's side everyone is on...we don't. Why would they wish to lessen their numbers right off the start, especially since Day 1 is a "lottery"?

Well, if Mac is a Wolf, I don’t believe that was their original intention. On this line of thinking, they would have started out trying to distance themselves, but it got out of hand when others also started suspecting Noggie, so they hatched a plan to make Mac look good by encouraging Nog’s demise. That whole thing with Nogrod’s cod reasoning against Rikae and Mac jumping on it just looks starnge to me. Were it not for that, I would be more comfortable dismissing the MacWolf theory.

Another thing about Mac. He has slightly backed off his Aganzir theory. I wonder whether that might be because it was pointed out (by Rikae, I think) that the same line of reasoning applied to him (indeed moreso, given my earlier point that a MacWolf had more to gain from Nog’s death than an AganWolf).

The other possibility is that either Aganzir or Legate is a Wolf (or both are) and agreed with Nogrod in the final hours that they would turn against him to make themselves look good. Aganzir has explained her behaviour in voting for Nog and encouraging Shasta to do so, and it looks credible. And her vote came before Nog’s strange reaction to Rikae’s Christmas song. For that reason, Legate’s vote (on the basis of Nog’s starnge Rikae vote) actually sticks to me out as the more likely Wolf-on-Wolf vote fo the two.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Legate's vote against [b]Nogrod[/] I think jumps at me the most. Nogrod had already been in the lead, yet if wolfy why put that extra vote? To cover a behind when lynched?

I agree, but not for the reason that you have given, but rather for the reasoning above.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Anyway, Nogrod had just started acting in an extremely wolfish manner. If I'd been there I think I'd have changed my vote to him too, to make sure. It all seems quite reasonable to me.

Have you considered the possibility that Nog started behaving in an extremely Wolfish manner precisely because he wanted to give cover to a fellow Wolf to vote for him?

Originally Posted by Legate

I believe yesterDay, the wolves simply failed to save Nogrod from the gallows.

I really don’t agree with this. I am sure that there was at least one Wolf plus Noggie here at the deadline yesterDay. Given that they can communicate during the Day, they surely would have been able to save him had they wanted to.

Originally Posted by Legate

Concerning his vote for Rikae, I believe it was simply a waste of a vote - unless it was a wolf-on-wolf safe vote, which is also an option (a safe one at that time; though I would expect Nog to act in a more clever way. Though maybe actually this is a clever way).

I was thinking much the same. It is quite possible that a Wolf facing the gallows would put in a throwaway vote for a fellow Wolf to make them look good. But is it too obvious for Noggie? Either way, I don’t think that we can dismiss Rikae from the mix. She looks to have been acting fairly typically so far, but then I would expect a Wolf who was under no pressure to do exactly that.

Both Boro and Eomer have effectively ‘come clean’ and admitted that they were trying to save Noggie, because they thought him innocent. As I said earlier, if either was a Wolf and wanted to save him, they could have coordinated with Nog himself to do it. They both sound genuine enough to me so, for now, I am prepared to regard them both as putative innocents.

One villager who is beginning to concern me, however, is Valier. As we all know, she is a ‘hunch’ player, but my recollection is that she is normally quite confident in her hunches. Here, however, she seems far less sure about them. It doesn’t quite ring true to me, so I’ll be keeping my eye on her.

One final thought. If Azaelia does not post and vote toDay then, according to the phanto-mod’s rules, something bad will happen to her side. Not good if she’s innocent. But it may help us if she is a Wolf and, either way, might at least indicate which side she is on (assuming that she doesn’t get modfired as well).

[mormegil]

The more Nerwen speaks the more I think she is a jumpy wolf that feels that she needs to defend everything she does or says and any accusation thrown at her. Wolves often fall into this pitfall of getting overly jumpy and anxious and I think Nerwen has fallen into that pitall.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Thank you, but actually I’m fine. It’s my internet connection that keeps dying. I was trying to express it ‘in character’.

Well, that's good. You had me fooled.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Have you considered the possibility that Nog started behaving in an extremely Wolfish manner precisely because he wanted to give cover to a fellow Wolf to vote for him?

No, I hadn’t. That’s something to think about.

Originally Posted by mormegil

The more Nerwen speaks the more I think she is a jumpy wolf that feels that she needs to defend everything she does or says and any accusation thrown at her. Wolves often fall into this pitfall of getting overly jumpy and anxious and I think Nerwen has fallen into that pitall.

So I guess you've had an attack of total amnesia about your own behaviour yesterDay, Morm?

Anyway, I have to vote now, in case I'm not able to later. While there are a number of people I suspect, I think Valier is the most prominent. I know people say she has "hunches", but this time, at least, I think she's using her reputation. It's all so much easier when you don't have to give proper reasons for your suspicions.

++Valier.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

There are so many villagers that discussion can get a bit complicated. So far I've backed off a bit and been more of an observer. This allows slightly less jumbled debate (because there is less of it). However, in the event of my death nothing much will have been achieved by my life (other than my beautiful grave which I have already dug), so that's why I'm going to summarize my current thoughts on all the villagers.

Aganzir: Clever. I think she's good to have around, and I have agreed with her on a few points.

Azaelia: N/A

Boromir88: Seems quite typical of him. Good for discussion. Could well be wolvish but if so will be found out later by his busy mouth.

Farael: Again, good for discussion. Considers everything. Useful for now.

Isabellkya: Clever; not too involved. Possibly playing observer like me. Will probably be much suspected later on.

Kath: Seems pretty innocent to me. I think Nerwen is wrong about her.

Legate: Doesn't feel too comfortable to me. I will watch him closely.

Macalaure: The Nogrod thing bothers me, and if Mac is innocent I along with many others will feel embarrassed at suspecting the man who did more than anything to bring the foul wolf down; but... he's creepy, that jailer.

Mormegil: For now I trust Mormegil. Fairly comfortable about him.

Nerwen: Still unsure. SPM made good point about wolf-Nerwen probably keeping Shasta alive. She seems a bit wrong to me, but I'm leaning towards thinking she's innocent.

Rikae: Exactly like Mac -- seems creepy to me. Not sure why but I never trust her.

The Might: Voted for me which I must disagree with. But I don't think he's a wolf. Worth watching maybe.

Saucepan Man: Sometimes he stirs me the wrong way; but often I find myself just agreeing with whatever he says. Here and now, I'm pretty sure he's innocent. It would be mad to lynch him now anyway.

Valier: There is no other player I find so wolvish everytime I see him/her. Valier worries me endlessly and I can never really explain it. She has a furry soul.

[Macalaure]

I am suspicious of the way morm's been mentioning me over the day. Everybody but him more or less quickly made up their mind about the Mac-Nog-wolves thing, even if they ended up with only a 'maybe'. Morm first puts me in the spotlight in the very first post - without any reason given. Then he mentions me again later - in an astoundingly fence-sitting way (and at the top of his post 202). It appears as if the Mac-Nog theory is the way he'd like to go, but is afraid to really pursue this path without properly testing the waters first. Later again, when only few people went this way, he backs off and declares me likely innocent.
I'm also suspicious of the way morm tried to get to friendly terms with Boro in 204.

About Aganzir I said enough. Saucepan, yes I backed away a little from her. This is exactly because of what you noted, too: her explanation sounds credible. She rings less alarms than Nogrod did yesterday, so I won't campaign against her like I did against him. I still think she's the most suspicious one at the moment.

I have yet to see a convincing case against Nerwen. The bandwaggon that seems to be slowly forming itself reminds me of the one that just lynched her innocent mother on Day 1.

I'm not sure what to do with Valier. She usually suspects and vote with little conventional reason, and I was happy to see her vote for Aganzir, but now she retracted to Nerwen. I think she's one to keep in the corner of one's eye, but there's nothing I could say about her yet.

I'm also at a loss concerning Isabellkya and Kath.

No or little alarms there are from Farael, Legate, Rikae, Saucepan, the Might, Boro, and Eomer. The number of innocent-looking people alone suggests that I'm probably wrong about one of them...

[Rikae]

It turns out that I'll have far less time today than I thought I would, so I fear I'll have to vote soon.
This debate between Nerwen/Kath/Valier looks ugly to me. None of them are really making any sense -Nerwen's original points about Kath seemed quite solid to me (the wording of "screamed" seems odd to me, too, and I don't see why Nerwen's confusion about the rules should have looked so suspicious to Kath yesterday), and I don't really see why she dropped it so quickly, as Kath's explanation really is no explanation at all. Still, I agree that a wolf-Nerwen would have been unlikely to kill Shasta.

Then Nerwen goes for Valier in a tone I don't quite approve of, but for reasons that I have to agree with, again. I can't see how Valier managed to misread Nerwen's points against Kath so flagrantly, and hunches aside, I simply don't trust this "no explanations" style of play. Macalaure has tracked down wolves by pure intuition as well (in other games - I don't quite trust him now), but at least he tries to find some factual support for his "hunches" rather than expecting the rest of us to go along with them simply because he says so.

At this point, my vote is likely to go to Macalaure, whose suspicions toward Aganzir simply have too little to back them up (why Aganzir? He seems to be just trying to convince us it's possible for her to be a wolf, without telling us why it's likely), or to Valier, who indeed seems to be "using her reputation", and her misinterpretation of Nerwen's post seems more like a deliberate misrepresentation to me.

I would also like one thing clarified (sorry if I missed something): Boro, you say you changed your vote to Shasta to save Nogrod. Why, then, didn't you switch to Nerwen instead?

EDIT: X'd with Mac

[Kath]

Rikae, my suspicion of Nerwen has nothing to do with confusion about the rules, it was just the way she reacted. Basically my suspicion of her rests on the idea that she was being completely over the top. I like that she is defending herself because I think it possible that the two of us are seeing things from completely different points of view and that's causing the problem. Which is also why I wanted you to keep answering me yesterDay Nerwen, I would not have said you were being 'overly defensive' because I wanted an explanation. Your lack of one is what finally convinced me to vote for you.

Oh, and speaking of that, I was going over the posts from yesterDay and you said that I voted for you right after you came up with a Boro/Kath wolf theory and that that made me suspicious. Can I ask why because I didn't entirely understand that.

But, now, as interesting as this all is I do need to take a look at the rest of the village while I actually have some time (everyone is now too stuffed to demand my attention!). So let's go for that tried and tested method, a nice list.

Aganzir ~ short but subtantial. I'll have to have a look at why people think she's suspicious in a bit because I haven't seen that and am inclined to think her innocent at the moment.

Zali ~ sadly non-applicable.

Boro ~ really not sure about him. He takes a comment by someone and then turns it into a generalised piece of advice. There was some more individual stuff later though.

Eomer ~ well he had a point about arguing yourself in circles. Still, I always want to see more from him. I know he observes, as I usually do, but a few more words would be nice.

Farael ~ as I said yesterDay he has actually been pretty reasonable. I'm not sure that I've seen him evil before though, and he is playing a little differently to normal, so maybe there is something there. He hasn't latched on to anyone to lynch yet and that's giving me pause for thought. He's been flicking between people and that just doesn't seem like him.

Izzy ~ not a lot of substance there.

Legate ~ there was some suspicion of his for his pre-game theory but I don't think there's much reasoning there. It was something to say to start off the Day and get people talking. Again he seemed to be being pretty reasonable.

Mac ~ I don't know. I just don't. I don't think I've ever been able to read Mac and I simply can't make up my mind about him.

morm ~ is feeling innocent to me, which has me worried (). What has me even more worried is that he actually has the same suspicions as I do. We'll have to see how that goes.

Nerwen ~ we know my feelings here.

Rikae ~ she does seem to be twisting words somewhat, at least when it comes to the argument between Nerwen and myself.

Might ~ I would like to know why if Shasta was guilty I would be too, that was an interesting comment. Also, within the space of about a minute he seems to change his mind over Nerwen, not sure if Might is the flip-floppy type but it was definitely odd.

Sauce ~ ... well, it's Sauce! What am I supposed to do? The Seer could reveal him as innocent as I'd still be suspicious. I may reserve judgement for now as we've seen so little of him.

Valier ~ as I recall I accused her of playing on her reputation last game and she turned out to be innocent so I'd like to give her the benefit of the doubt. Also, she seems to be defending the way she plays rather than advocating it this game.

Hmm, that isn't quite as comprehensive as I'd like it to be but I have to go again. I will just quickly outline my suspicions, though not in any particular order.

Suspicious:
Nerwen
Farael
Rikae
Might

Innocent:
Valier
Legate
Aganzir

No idea:
Sauce
morm
Mac
Izzy
Eomer
Boro
Zali <-- obviously.

Given a little more time I should be able to cut down that 'no idea' list a bit because it is way too long. I would really love for Izzy and Eomer to be a bit more vocal because I want to put them on the innocent list as I'm leaning that way, but I want a bit more information first.

[The Saucepan Man]

At the moment, I am toying with voting for one of yesterDay’s Nog voters. But I don’t want to focus too much on one aspect of the game, so my current thoughts on everyone are as follows.

Aganzir: I think that there is some merit in the theory that she colluded with Noggie to get him lynched and thus acquire a mask of innocence. However, because her vote came before Nog’s spurious case against Rikae and because her explanation for her vote seems credible, I am less inclined to think her guilty than some of the others who voted for Nog. Other than that, she seems to be making sense.

Azaelia: No show.

Boromir88: I am inclined to trust him for now, for the reasons stated earlier. And I agree with Eomer that, being a talkative soul, a Wolfish Boro will get himself into trouble sooner or later.

Farael: Farael seems to be genuine so far, coming up with ideas and throwing out theories to test the water. I would like to hear more from him toDay but, other than that, no major concerns.

Isabellkya: I haven’t got much of a read on her yet. She hasn’t really said or done anything controversial, which worries me slightly, and is liable to be overlooked, if we’re not careful. But I have no real reason to suspect her as yet.

Kath: I am slightly worried about Kath. Her case against Nerwen looks to have been built on weak foundations, yet she persists with it. I have a vague suspicion that the Wolves may have picked Nerwen as a lynch candidate toDay, using the fact that Nog failed to vote for her to save himself, and Kath has added that as one of her reasons for suspecting Nerwen.

Legate: If there was a late Wolfish vote for Nogrod, it may well be here. Legate’s reaction to the Nog-Rikae thing could well have been contrived to make him look good. Also, he too raised doubts about Nerwen on the basis of Nog not retracting to vote for her. I would like to hear more of an explanation from him as to why he switched his vote to Nog.

Macalaure: I am still unsure about this Nog-Mac theory, but I have said more than enough about it already. Suffice to say that I think it a possibility and so could see myself voting for Mac toDay.

Mormegil: I could go either way on morm. I suspected him yesterDay for his strange (to me) accusations of Farael and Rikae. But, it was Day 1 and he seems to have come up with some more solid ideas toDay.

Nerwen: I can see what others mean when they say that she is coming across as jumpy and nervy, and I am not sure what to make of her spat with Kath. However, I still think it unlikely that a Wolfish Nerwen would have slain Shasta. Of the two, Kath concerns me more.

Rikae: Other than Nog’s vote for her, I have no reason to suspect her. However, as I said earlier, I would expect a Wolfish Rikae to act normally, especially when under no pressure. She suspects Mac, which I find interesting. Nog put forward the theory yesterDay that she and Mac are Wolves together and, while he undoubtedly did so with Wolfish intent, I wouldn’t put it past him to tell a truth so as to conceal it, particularly if he was already planning with his fellows to contrive his own demise.

The Might: I have no idea at all about the Might. I think that he is on the wrong track with Eomer but, whether Wolfishly so, I cannot tell.

Eomer: As with Boro, I am inclined to trust him now for reasons stated earlier. It also helps that his thoughts on everyone are quite similar to my own.

Valier: Valier has given very little away about her suspicions, other than to involve herself in the Kath-Nerwen spat, on the side of Kath. As explained earlier, she does not seems as confident in her hunches as normal, which could indicate Wolifshness. Of the non-Nog voters, she is probably my main suspect at present.

[The Saucepan Man]

Basically my suspicion of her rests on the idea that she was being completely over the top. I like that she is defending herself because I think it possible that the two of us are seeing things from completely different points of view and that's causing the problem.

Well that certainly 'pinged' my radar and Kath has just promoted herself to a very respectable position on my suspect list.

Two reasons. First, Nerwen's reaction to the Seer-Cursed thing was early on in the game, when there was still some residual banter about. Her 'Come back!' was in reaction to Nog saying he was going off to chop wood or something. It doesn't seem 'completely over the top' at all to me. And secondly, Kath has given herself some 'wiggle room' to draw back from her suspicion of Nerwen here, saying that it might be because they are looking at things differently. She did the exact same thing yesterDay with Boro, as I recall. It seems to me to be quite a Wolfish thing to do - to advance a case and see what comes of it, while giving oneself room to withdraw from it if it doesn't take off.

Top suspects now:

Mac
Valier
Kath
Legate
Aganzir

... in pretty much that order, although it's pretty close between them all at the moment.

[mormegil]

So I had a post by post analysis of Kath prepare and somehow the whole thing was erased. (I'm on my laptop and sometimes when I hit backspace it makes the webpage go back so I lost the whole post) Anyway instead of repeating it I will sumarize. Kath basically hasn't said much. Only 6 posts, which is one of the reasons I'm looking at her. First because I'm concerned about her and The Might only posting 6 times as it's easy to fly under the radar.

She mainly has spent her time in giving some weak and some fairly solid points against Nerwen and defending herself from the early attack from Boromir. It is in post 222 that I feel she is most innocent and makes me feel better about her. She seems very sincere and genuine here and not desparate. I really do believe that she is simply out of time and is frustrated by her lack of participation though I would like to hear from her today and see a vote as we didn't get one yesterday, and one more no vote would mean death to her.

Anyway, I hope to look at The Might next.

[mormegil]

Post 86 is an odd post indeed. I'm not really sure why he is saying what he is saying here. He starts by going after Shasta a bit for going after Nerwen and defending some IC talk. Then he says something about TP having players post certain things??? I don't get this bit at all. He talks about the twists and is glad day 1 is longer.


Post 116 talks briefly about Nerwen and Shasta. He thinks Nerwen is innocent enough and Shasta guilty. He concludes that if Shasta is guilty so is Kath which makes Legate innocent Feels that it is too early to begin making too many connections between players but already made the Shasta-Kath-Legate connection.

Post 117 is a quick follow-up to a question Eomer made about what Nerwen said and thinks she is giving sound advice and doesn't appear wolfish. He seems to be doing a lot of Nerwen defending already. He ends the post with this:

I could of course be wrong...

This is always a bit worrisome but innocents do this too.

Also, it is important to note that there is not vote on day 1.

Post 198 he talks in circles and I don't really follow what he said here. He does apologize for a no vote and says he was confused on the time, which being how unusual day 1's time was is moderately understandable.

Post 230 again he defends Nerwen and begins to be suspicious of Eomer, which came out of nowhere. Mainly he suspects him because of his Day 1 vote for Nerwen and votes for Eomer.

This is really odd. In almost every post so far he has mentioned Nerwen in a positive light. Why is he so intent upon saying she appears innocent in every post?

Post 283

I do feel a bit better about him after reading the last post. It's good that he gave us his thoughts for a change.

I think he is refering to Eomer but this is rich coming from somebody who has only posted 6 times and all very short and insubstantial.

I guess we won't find out who was the wolves' target...that would be interesting.

These lines always scare me, as did Farael's first post of the day, as they seem to contrived to be sincere.

To SPM, I thought that way because Kath defended Shasta after Nerwen's attack. So it kind of figured that if Shasta, who I did suspect at that time was a wolf, so would be Kath.

And yet, this is somebody who has defended Nerwen, whom I suspect greatly, in basically every post. He does so indirectly in this post with the above quote.

Conclusion:

I really don't trust The Might. I've seen nothing of any substance, a missed vote, constant defense of somebody I highly suspect, an odd out of the blue vote for Eomer who I think innocent, a contrived sounding statement about who was protected, and just a low post volume. This all adds up to put The Might high on the suspect list.