WW XXXXI: With a Twist

[The Saucepan Man]

I decided to take a claser look at The Might, since I haven’t got much of a read on him as yet. Day 1, his only substantive points, other than a few comments about the phanto-mod’s possible ‘twists’, involve going against Shasta and being somewhat defensive of Nerwen. If Shasta was targeted as a possible Day 1 scapegoat, then this might be indicative of Wolfishness. Also, he didn’t vote yesterDay, which has been explained, but seems a little convenient, given the interesting way that the votes went.

One thing that jumped out at me, though, is this:

Originally Posted by The Might

If I'm right about Shasta, then Kath seems suspicious as well, while Legate will probably be innocent.

You weren’t right about Shasta, but I don’t get your reasoning at all here. Would you mind explaining, please?

As for toDay, his vote for Eomer looks to be based on rather weak reasoning, and is likely to be somewhat of a ‘throwaway’ vote, given that Eomer (surprisingly, for him ) has not come under much suspicion thus far.

I also took a quick look at Valier, to see if my concern about her is warranted, and noticed this:

Originally Posted by Valier

Well since now my time is even more limited I will try and explain myself as best I can. I know my reasons may not always be that good, I can only try. I like to read and observe how people interact with each other and their reactions to different situations. So saying that, my list of suspects is made up of people who I just don't quite get. Something seems furry about them. For now I think that in some way these 6 stand out to me in some way that don't feel good.
My list goes from most suspicious to least.

Nerwen
Shasta
Mormegil
Macalaure
Isabellkya
Kath

I understand that your time was limited, as was mine yesterDay, but a little explanation here wouldn’t have gone amiss. Fair enough, you work by hunches, but it would help if you gave a little explanation as to what you find ‘furry’ about your suspects. The same goes for the ‘circumstances’ vote for Aganzir which, although retracted, appears to have been based on very little indeed. It seems to me that those who are suggesting that you are relying on your reputation to avoid giving explanations may have a point.

I am going to have to vote now, as I may not have a chance to get back before the deadline. Currently, it’s a toss up for me between Mac and Valier. Valier has 3 votes and Mac none. So I’ll go for the one which has more chance of counting.

++Valier

Adios amigos!

[Macalaure]

Not much has been said since I've been here last. And even less has been to my liking.

Originally Posted by Rikae

At this point, my vote is likely to go to Macalaure, whose suspicions toward Aganzir simply have too little to back them up (why Aganzir? He seems to be just trying to convince us it's possible for her to be a wolf, without telling us why it's likely)

*sigh*
Do you want me to state the whole thing again with more detail? It seems futile right now, since Aganzir will hardly be lynched today. I'm not going to.

Originally Posted by Espiem

Macalaure: I am still unsure about this Nog-Mac theory, but I have said more than enough about it already. Suffice to say that I think it a possibility and so could see myself voting for Mac toDay.

You know, Sauce, until now you were the one I considered to look most innocent. And now you put me on the top of your suspect list (even though you voted Valier) based on that - a possibility? You can't be serious...

It's funny that all the people who keep on suspecting me don't dare to put their money where their mouths are.


I had a closer look at Kath and found myself disagreeing with almost everything she said. Still, what she said seemed genuine and more innocent than suspicious. I always have a hard time figuring out Kath. Maybe we just have a different approach, since she seems to have a similar problem with me.

Right now it's:

Valier 4 (Legate, Nerwen, Rikae, SPM)
morm 1 (Boro)
Nerwen 1 (Valier)
Eomer 1 (Miggy)

It seems like the Nerwen bandwaggon is not taking off. Good. But I'm not too comfortable with a Valier-waggon as well. Since Aganzir will unlikely be lynched, I think I will vote my second-best suspect, mormegil. Among those who already have votes, he's clearly my favourite. Yes, I'll be there until the deadline to retract if something happens to change my mind, but I feel the need to have a competing bandwaggon right now, before the Valier-waggon gets out of hands, and I want it to be one that I like, so I won't end up choosing between two evils near the deadline.

++mormegil

[mormegil]

I hope to have enough time on lunch to quickly review Nerwen...so my format will be talking about points as I read them in her posts.

In post 84 she questions my early suspicions of Farael. I gave, at the time, the best explination I had which was admittedly very weak but I wanted to get things moving a bit and Farael seemed overly loud to me. If I remember correctly Nerwen has questioned others regarding their suspicions.

Post 90 she reminds us of the ability wolves have to PM each other. I think it could easily be a wolf reminding us of a rule to help her look good. She also points out that people were jumping aboard with Mac and me on our suspicions of Nogrod and Farael. At this point nobody was jumping on board and no bandwagon had formed. It is this behavior that makes me think she is jumpy. This could also be and early attempt to defend Nogrod and include Farael (who I think innocent) to round it off.

Post 93 she seems to get defensive quick and thought I was jumpy for explaining, as she requested, my suspicion over Farael. I basically said that I need to have some suspicions be it weak or strong and the best I had was weak. She seemed a bit over the top to me and I remember just calmly explaining this, so this seems odd.

Post 95 jumps out to me, in talking about the wolves being able to PM she stated:

Of course they might also decide they can afford to start accusing each other, even this early in the game.

Honestly, I don't know what to make of this. She could be ahead of the curve on this and pointing out what could be happening or she simply could be a wolf and they had planned this strategy.

Post 103 she throws suspicion on Shasta over Shasta thanking her for pointing out that wolves can PM. She thought that Shasta might be pulling a double bluff but concluded that it is not overly likely. It seems that she is setting it up here to show that by knowing and pointing it out to others she is no longer suspicious.

Post 118 is a post which she moves around a lot and there is not a common thread. She writes off her 'cursed seer' thing as early day 1 silliness which is understandable. She talks a bit about Nogrod, Boro and Kath but no conclusions.


AHH I just looked she has a total of 35 posts! I only covered page 3 up to this point..I didn't even look on page 2. I doubt I'll get through most of her posts.

Post 136 she talks a bit about a few players and is sure not to commit to much of anything but this is interesting from the post

At the moment I'm wavering between Morm and Shasta. I could be persuaded to vote Boro– or maybe even Kath (or Mac... or Nogrod...). We'll see

It's almost as if she is inviting somebody to sway her so that she doesn't take responsibility for her choice. She seems very non-commital in her thoughts and that always reeks of wolfish fur to me.

She ends up voting for Shasta who is innocent not that that alone means she guilty but it is something to be remembered.

Post 196 she explains the Shasta kill in a fairly satisfactory way. She talks briefly about the Nogrod wolf-on-wolf vote and says that it must have been a communication breakdown. No I think it was likely that you are another wolf and that if both you and Nogrod were saved at Shasta's expense there would have been two wolves revealed and not one. It would have been far too obvious.

This is all I have time for but I have a decent recollection of her other posts in Day 2 and those were the ones that really got me considering her in the first place so that coupled with what I have seen of her in the earlier posts leads me to believe that she is a wolf.

++Nerwen

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Mac

You know, Sauce, until now you were the one I considered to look most innocent. And now you put me on the top of your suspect list (even though you voted Valier) based on that - a possibility? You can't be serious...

Mac, you seem to suspect anybody who suspects you...it's not healthy, trust me. Sadly, I have a habit of doing that and more often than not I am wrong about it. It's a problem I'm working on...I think I'm on step 8 of a 12 step program. So while I understand the knee-jerk reaction it doesn't help allay my fears of you.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Mac, you seem to suspect anybody who suspects you...it's not healthy, trust me. Sadly, I have a habit of doing that and more often than not I am wrong about it. It's a problem I'm working on...I think I'm on step 8 of a 12 step program. So while I understand the knee-jerk reaction it doesn't help allay my fears of you.

You know, usually I don't automatically suspect anyone who suspects me. In fact, I frequently find myself thinking people who suspect me innocent. But this time I simply fail to see why I'm being suspected. I've heard a lot of "it's possible that he's a wolf" but very little that goes beyond that. Rikae's "his case against Aganzir is too weak" is probably the best one of them. I also can't shake off the feeling that at least some of the suspicions against me are wolf-made, but I yet cannot decide which.

[Farael]

Sorry folks, I'm feeling a little under the weather (Trust an University student to get sick right when he has time off to enjoy)

There's been a lot of talk since the last time I checked the thread, and I don't have the energy to do a comprehensive post with quotes and theories... believe it or not, and even if they sound far-fetched, they all take some effort.

So I'll write my thoughts on all the players as I may, paraphrasing and without quotes to back them up... I'll do my best to be clear as to what I refer to, but I don't think I can go quote-hunting right now

Looking Innocent
SPM: Trusting him dangerous, but I always tell myself that each village is a different world and that (while caution based on past experience is necessary) you can't suspect someone solely on the fact that they (pardon my french) screwed you over before. He is reasonable, calm and collected... I can't suspect him.

Boromir: He has a swagger about him and that may rub people the wrong way, but he has answered every concern raised against him reasonably. While "being defensive" is wolfish, he's not defensive, he's just genuine on what he says. Or at least, he seems genuine.

Mac: Sorry folks, but on Day 2 you have to put your chips somewhere and he is just not a good bet. True, it could be a smart plan by the wolves (And if it is, may Mod help us all... ) but right now I think it's not the time to go looking for far-fetched theories. Let's cover our bases first, if that does not work, we can take a look at Mac.

Looking alright

Legate: Perhaps he has not said enough for me to suspect him, but so far so good for Legate

Morm: He seems jumpy, but he did the same thing last village we played in when he was the Ranger. i am torn, as it may either mean that he has "a role" again (which could be anything from gifted to wolf) or that being jumpy is just Morm's style. The same I said for SaucepanMan applies for him... I'm not willing to let him off the hook because last time he acted like this he was a gifted, but for now I'm willing to give him a pass.

Aganzir I don't quite see how his vote for Nogrod makes him look bad...

Feeling unsettled about
Rikae this is a case of a player I never trust. She seems a little flippy-floppy on Mac and this may be because I understand they have a RL friendship, but it just doesn't look good to me... also, her vote for Valier looks awful safe yet...

Valier gotta say I have a soft spot for Valier. She joined the 'downs about the same time I did and we used to talk a fair bit... but that's not clouding my judgement enough for me to notice that she has almost no reasoning behind her suspicions. Now, I'm known for latching on to people and suspecting them to the bitter death (of either of us ) based on a hunch... but when I did that, I tried to make some sort of a case. Valier is just saying "I have hunches, trust me"... and she's been doing it for a couple games at least. She just can't be the Seer in all games!!!

Nerwen: She seems lost. Could be a misguided ordo, or a wolf who knows that looking clueless is a good way to avoid suspicion for a while. I can't figure her out

Might: Is anyone else finding him odd(er)? he posts little, and he said he missed the deadline last Day. I'm willing to trust him on that, but does that really make him look better? his missing of the deadline may have been what caused Nogwolf's plan to go awry.

Izzy: Can't get a feel for her.

Eomer: The Perma-distrusted, I suspected him earlier but now he's not looking as bad. Still, I'm not willing to give him a pass.

Zali: Can't say anything.

Edit: X-ed with Aganzir
Edit 2: Fixed poor grammar

[mormegil]

Here is an up to date and accurate voting count...I think

Valier for Agan (Agan 1)
Legate for Valier (Agan 1, Valier 1)
Boromir for Morm (Agan 1, Valier 1, Morm 1)
Valier retracts Agan and votes Nerwen (Valier 1, Morm 1, Nerwen 1)
The Might for Eomer (Valier 1, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Nerwen for Valier (Valier 2, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Rikae for Valier (Valier 3, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
SpM for Valier (Valier 4, Morm 1, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Mac for Morm (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 1, Eomer 1)
Morm for Nerwen (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1)
Agan for Mac (Valier 4, Morm 2, Nerwen 2, Eomer 1, Mac 1)

Please correct me if I am wrong.

[Farael]

Alright, I've decided to vote now and use my retraction if I'm around later with a better idea.

You may notice from my previous post I just have no-one pegged as "very suspicious". Right now I need to get a better read on everything that happened today, and I don't know if I'll be able to muster the energy to do that before the deadline. So I'll vote even though I don't like it, for a reason that's coming up.

++Valier

I am voting for her on two lines of reasoning.

First of all, of all my "don't feel so good about" players, she's the one who seems the least helpful. Along with The Might I should say, but my second reason explains why I'm not voting for him. While I understand how hunches work, being a hunch-player myself at times, she's done nothing to win us over and her one attempt at a reasoning seems weak... I know Valier is smart and she COULD make a good case if she wanted.

But the biggest reason for my voting for her is that with the wolves being able to PM during the day and retractable votes, they still have too much control over who gets lynched. Of all the people who have gotten voted so far, Valier is the one I think has the best chance of turning out furry.

If I had to choose whom to lynch, I'd probably get rid of The Might with a similar case as what I have for Valier. He seems to be all over the place and not really contributing much... and his missing of the deadline might've been the reason why Nogrod did not act to save himself. Perhaps he was waiting on Might to do something at the last moment.

Edit: X-ed with everything after my last post

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Isabell

Right now I'm deciding between Aganzir, Legate, and Nerwen for a vote.

And what is your reason for this, if I may ask? The timing of my Nog-vote (the only time Isabell has mentioned me was when she said that was worrying) is maybe a little bit too weak reason to base a vote on.

[Macalaure]

While I do see where some of those who suspect Valier come from, I fear that lynching her means going the easy way. Yes, she's not being very helpful, but she rarely is early on, and she's being a little confused, too. It seems, however, that some only suspect Valier for being valierish. Of course, I also would very much like to see how her early hunch of Aganzir is going to turn out.

But I don't like lynching Nerwen as well, and I'm less certain of morm's guilt now.