Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[A Little Green]

As Mac seemed to ask for it, here come my reasons for suspecting him.

1. My yesterday's theory of a wolf slip. I'm still uncertain whether it really was a slip (actually I might have to think that through now that Cab is proven innocent...) or whether I should believe Mac's explanation of it.

2. His over-estimation of the suspicion cast on him looks furry.

3. His votes look fishy. On Day1, he voted precisely at the deadline, on Day2 a minute before it. Both times his vote has been to someone others have bandwaggoned first. Also, this caught my eye:

Originally Posted by Mac

I think I'll hesitate voting McCaber

6 minutes before deadline... and yet he votes him all the same. Of course it was to save his own skin, and I understand it, but combined to his Day1 vote of going with the bandwaggon but saying that "I would have much preferred Lommy" it looks weird...

To other matters, then. The thing I'm most worried about is yesterDay's last-minute Cabwagon. I left my lurking-post behind Lommie's shoulder a some ten minutes before deadline to go and chop chocolate. When at deadline I asked her who was lynched and she replied "McCaber" I was baffled, because when I had last seen the thread Cab had but one vote. He had received 3 votes in the last ten minutes. That is something we should have a look at, especially because Cabbie was innocent. Somehow I can't believe all the Cabwaggoners are just mislead innocents.

That's all for now. Apart from Mac, I am alarmed by Noggie (overall feeling + cabwaggoning) and Volo (weirdness + cabwaggoning). I'm unsure about Menel.

Now I think I'll let Nog use the computer for change, just for the sake of equality.


EDIT: x-ed with Mithdurelinmith

[Macalaure]

I didn't find much that can be deduced from McCaber or Ka. She seems to be another one killed for not leaving trails. This seems to be the plan of the wolves, to make our loud and wordy ones argue in circles and lynch each other.


Bordomir:

Boro made cases of Mith, Rikae. However, even knowing that they come from an innocent mind, I don't find his arguments convincing. He also mentions Menel as suspicious.

I don't find Mith's behaviour towards Boro the last two days alarming. Nogrod's behaviour could be interpreted as a more subtle buddying-up, but I won't make that connection - yet.

Rikae's and Volo's suspicion of Boro looks sincere.

Lommy flipflops about him like only Lommy can. It doesn't leave me with a good feeling. Durelin is also overly indecisive on Boro.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Mith

Mac,I don't know why Mith plays so nervously and alarmed I do not concur with your interpretation (mine is a simple combination of PMT, work stress, other RL stress and just too little time making me irritable. Perpetually sane and serene is ironic you know, you should, you have played with me before. The fact that you do not realise by now that being grouchy and thin skinned is completely normal for me in werewolf games, seems a bit odd.

I know you're usually grouchy and thin-skinned, but you seemed to be more like it this time. Sad to hear the reason for it.


Now, over to you, my dear wolves.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I'm almost 100% not all of Nog, Rikae and Mac are innocent. It just would not make sense, there's too much contradiction in the air.

I don't know what you're talking about (what contradiction?), and I think you're pushing your Nog, Rikae, Mac, (Boro) thing way to hard. You look like a wolf trying to get the village to lynch an(y) innocent loudmouth.

Originally Posted by Durelin

First up, a random thought... I suggest that perhaps one of Rikae and Mac is a wolf. At different times they each seem to be trying to buddy-up to the other, which would obviously give the wolf of the pair a pretty strong ally.

Durelin goes into a similar direction. I haven't been buddying up to Rikae. I think she's innocent, but that's all I said. Rikae doesn't seem to be sure what to do with me, defending me at one time and accusing me at another. The latter makes no sense if she wanted to buddy up to me.

Originally Posted by Durelin

On the other hand, I agree with both her and Mac on A Little Green (except that their great suspicion seems to be completely based on the placement of her vote, which does not make sense to me...yes, factoring that in makes sense, but...).

You agree with Rikae and me about Lily, but you think our cases make no sense? Then I suspect you have a case of your own that makes more sense? Share it, please.

Originally Posted by Lily

3. His votes look fishy. On Day1, he voted precisely at the deadline, on Day2 a minute before it. Both times his vote has been to someone others have bandwaggoned first. Also, this caught my eye:

6 minutes before deadline... and yet he votes him all the same. Of course it was to save his own skin, and I understand it, but combined to his Day1 vote of going with the bandwaggon but saying that "I would have much preferred Lommy" it looks weird...

I explained my Day One vote already and I don't see anything suspicious about my vote yesterDay. What are you going after here?


I might be wrong about one of the three - I'm usually getting something wrong when I'm too sure about a complete wolf pack - but these three look horribly wolvish compared to anybody else.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I didn't find much that can be deduced from McCaber or Ka. She seems to be another one killed for not leaving trails. This seems to be the plan of the wolves, to make our loud and wordy ones argue in circles and lynch each other.

That is what I thought of first too... but I wouldn't be too sure that's the only explanation.

Whatever the case the wolves must feel comfortable looking at their kills. Or if not then they are really good creating that impression to move the attention away from themselves.

I came to think of that after I realised my initial reaction was a need to rethink all over again and totally change my scope toDay as it seems I have been so wrong all the time. But as Lommy and Greenie had their turns on my computer first I got time to think and rethink and came to wonder whether that was just the thing the wolves wanted us to do... to feel the need of rethinking - I mean after all most of us very loud players have been quite easy towards each other so far.

It would be quite outstanding indeed - and hats off to the wolves for that if that's the case - that they were having hard times and decided to go on confusing us in hope of getting the loud ones against each other.

But it would be quite a complicated thing to be sure and even if I tend to love these multilayered theories I know the shortcomings of that attitude as well. Having being a wolf a few times I just know there seldomly is the time and / or effort to create that nice master-plans. But who knows?

So the other chance is that we loudmouths were just so far off that they felt it safe to pick The Ka and leave us with the insecurity.

Then again the wolves could not have known that Boro leaves the game... could that have any bearing on the situation?

Or then... and this is the nightmare-scenario... at least two of the more experienced-loudmouthed-theory generating-accomplished wolfhunters are now wolves and they are just trying to keep us others of the same reputation alive so as people would not start to question why they're alive themselves...

Too many possibilities...

I need to go back to yesterDay and look if there is something I have missed and to recollect my thoughts about what happened.

But this was my version of a "short post" to begin with and now I need to turn the computer to Lommy and Greenie first.

[Mithalwen]

Sorry I will try to be more usefull tomorrow. I am not up to much just now....

[Nogrod]

Lommy and LG decided to go to sleep as well...

(OOC: I read them a bedtimestory from the Arabian "1001 Nights" - I don't remember when I have read them a bedsidestory the last time... It was kind of cute - and the story was so weird!!!]

But Mith, Lommy and Greenie suddenly pulling off early... Okay, I'm not going to make a number of it at this point as there are reasons for everyone.

What to do then?

I will look at the vote myself too and will try to cross-examine the votes of the two Days so far.

I will also look at Nerwen as I promised yesterDay as she has started to bother me since Volo made his point yesterDay (I just realised then that he struck in the exact same thing I found a bit bothering in her analysis earlier but didn't stick to it) and she has been one who has flown under my radar quite nicely by posting enough but not coming forwards so much as to make a mark.

I also readily confess I have only a little about people like Lommy, Greenie, Durelin, and Mith - and my thoughts on Rikae and Mac will need upgrading as well... and I'm not too confident about the thoughts I have on Menel or Volo either...

It seems I need to look at everyone... Maybe this was just the thing the wolves wished to accomplish as yesterDay I thought I had something like a hang of it (not a good one but a scenario which is now out of question) so now I feel I'm in the dead-end alley.

To work then.

And hoping to have some company...

[Volo]

Just came home from an uninteresting film and feel dead tired.

To say the truth I'm not very surprised with the outcome. I'm even somewhat relieved, since now I won't try to lynch at least those Innocents.

Nerwen stays a suspect, Lommy feels odd after yesterDay, Durelin and Menel have swam under my net.

I'll do what I can tomorrow.

[Nogrod]

One thing that still bothers me even if Lommy tried to downplay it with her quite believable personal defence of it is the number of people who tried to "justify" their vote on Day1 with a phrase "I don't wish to see Boro die". Even if it's understandable the actual number of people using it is just plain ridiculous. Now as Boro is actually away and proven innocent this list kind of gets a new and a bit weightier meaning as the wolves knew he was innocent! There were so many people making the phrase that not all of them probably are innocents as it would fit a wolf so well to join that crowd...

Of those still alive there are Mith, Lommy, Mac and Volo involved there.

---

Those alive who took part in the Gwath-wagon (there probably is at least one wolf there - possibly two as it was so neat for them to hide looking at the situation): Greenie, Rikae, Mith, Volo, Mac

---

Crossing the two tables leads to:

Lommy 1 hit (saying let's not kill Boro)
Greenie 1 hit (not saying let's not kill Boro but voting Gwath)
Rikae 1 hit (not saying let's not kill Boro but voting Gwath)
Mith 2 hits
Mac 2 hits
Volo 2 hits

---

This is getting to look like work indeed...

I'll take a break and come back before I go to sleep.

[Meneltarmacil]

With an innocent McCaber, I think we may have a good idea of where to start looking for Wolves.

I think one may have hid in the Caberwagon on Day 1 while another voted for Gwath, and the third one voted for someone else.

I also think there's a wolf in the latest Caberwagon, the one that lynched him.

As for the possibilities, I see a few:
Volo voted for Gwath and McCaber, not counting his Ka-vote. Staying in bandwagons is hardly ever good. Plus, all his votes were for known innocents, again not a good sign.

Nogrod votes for McCaber both times. Good choice to cover one's tracks, claim that you voted for him before, therefore you must legitimately suspect the latest bandwagonee.

And then there's Mac... Oh, what am I to do with you? Same bandwagons as Volo, and I've suspected him before. Well, I doubt he and Volo are both wolves, as voting the same bandwagons twice in a row would be dangerous.

[Nogrod]

DAY1

On her first post she quotes a lengthy part of my post and says:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

glad to see everyone loking on the bright side– of course that's only to be expected of my husband.

Looking like trying to make friends with a role-husband... could be just first-post in-character thing as well.

Then says:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'm a bit worried about why everyone is going after the poor orphan Lommy. It wasn't nice of her to pick on my son, but children will be children. I really think it was just a joke.

After that she notifies Mac's point about Lommy's self-evidenting reasoning saying:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, it's possible...
I can't say anymore now... working my fingers to the bone,I am, and does anyone care? *goes off muttering*

Then she comes back with her analysis on people... she analyses:

- Lommy (looks perfectly innocent however says she doesn't look too good)
- Mac (seems rather jumpy to her and had a strained argument but might as well be trying to get reactions like the last time)
- Menel (she borrows the suspicions of others but points out Menel tries to separate himself from Boro's thoughts)
-The Ka ("Is apparently trying to win a prize for saying the least in the most words. A possible "safe" wolf-tactic?") - a known innocent.
- Durelin ("Durelin I've never played before")
- Sally (says things which sound "terribly wolvish but the thing is she always does") - a known innocent
- Gwath (only early banter but then a point to Boro) - a known innocent

Then she goes against Rikae with her suspicion of that point as Gwath was seen going to defend Sally and Dury and gives another interpretation of the situation ("but you could also see it as Gwath just trying to be helpful and offer an alternative explanation. As it stands, I find that more likely.")

- McCaber ("he's basically doing the same thing as Gwath– except for suspecting one person") - a known innocent

Then she says she hasn't any time for more. Points we should hear from Greenie and Mith (who hadn't posted at that time). Says:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'm getting much the same nasty "there's something going on but I don't know what" feeling as in the last village.

Says loves Rikae for her post where Rikae says she tends to suspect her.

She does not say anything about Nogrod, Boro and Volo and she leaves Rikae outside her analysis even if she refers to her a few times but not with any analysis.


DAY2

Regrets her non-vote, promises to look at Sally more closely, says there were some peculiar things around the deadline.

Makes a Sallyanalysis ending it with:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'd say she was picked as a safe kill– except that she's said things that would have made her an easy lynch toDay. She was also under suspicion because of the perceived connection between her and Durelin. YesterDay most people were taking the line, "Oh well, that's Sally– who knows?" –but surely it would have been easy for the wolves to turn that around.

Reminds people not to overlook Volo because of his vote on Day1.

Comes back with a larger analysis.
Says: "Rikae, Lommy and Mac seem okay to me, as of the time of posting."
- The Ka ("literally gave me a headache." + "So far, well and good– but then it turns into a rather creepy description of her preferred wolfing tactics... I don’t know what to make of her.") - a known innocent
- Durelin ("likewise.")
- Menel ("seems to have fallen off the radar, and after yesterDay I think he should be on it.")
- Boro and Nogrod ("seem slippery– and both of them certainly played a part in getting Gwath killed... Also Boro's suspicions of Mithalwen today strike me as quite genuine.") - Boro a known innocent
All that "led her to ":

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Mith– her reasons for voting Gwath look rather bad. Half of her posts toDay sound vaguely sinister, the other half just vague. (Btw, what is the count now of people using the “If I were a wolf I’d do X, and I’m doing Y, so I can’t be a wolf” argument?)

McCaber– Another slippery one, another one who helped start the Gwath bandwagon, another one who voted in an “I’m not really doing this” kind of way. The combination of all three looks nasty.

Volo. Gave a weird vote, giving a strong impression that he didn’t care who got lynched, and was perhaps trying to vote “informal”. ToDay (#184) he gives an “explanation” that doesn’t help at all

which was added with Volo's quote where he said it would be better to look after people getting after his vote than his vote itself, ending with a comment: "I mean– WHAT?"

Doesn't mention Greenie.

Votes Volo.

[Meneltarmacil]

Well, Nogrod, that is indeed a revealing analysis.

Of, course, this praise is brought to you by a wolf trying to suck up to the guy who plans to lynch him*, but still, I can see what that means. Anyone who casts that much suspicion on known innocents is worth looking at.

Also, note the way she "suspects" Mac early on:

Yes, but let's not allow that to get twisted into, "well, hey, it doesn't matter who we lynch". I suspect the wolves may try that.

Notice that this is not phrased as a suspicion! It's more of a "Stop behaving like a wolf!" warning. I've known wolves to caution their fellow pack members this way before.

The no-vote on Day 1 is interesting in light of the pattern I mentioned earlier, as it definitely gets her out of the bandwagons.

Also, this would suggest that Nogrod be taken off my suspicious list for suggesting her. However I'm not doing that unless Nerwen is found guilty.

[Rikae]

Well, to tell you the truth, I'm beginning to lose faith in the power of analysis. Still, I'm sleep-deprived at the moment, so I may be able to muster the energy to be a little more analytical tomorrow (toDay).
At any rate, if I were to listen to the nagging "gut feelings" Ive been having, I would say that I have an inexplicable sense that Lommy and Durelin are somehow laughing behind their posts. I've been uneasy about Lommy all along, but without really any concrete reasons. I will say that I don't like her "almost 100% certainty" one bit... primarily because she herself belongs on the list of experienced, loud and helpful players if anyone does, and by highlighting the others she manages to sidestep the spotlight.
I also don't trust Mac... mark my words. I'm not sure he's a wolf, but I don't have the certainty he's an ordo that I've felt before, either. Just wanted to make that clear... I have been trying very hard to pin him down since the game began, but I keep thinking myself in circles.

EDIT: X'd with Menel, obviously.

[Nerwen]

Hi, all. Well, it seems my instincts are way off, because I was starting to have a bad feeling about the departed Boro... and I had McCaber down as a likely wolf.

Now, about my vote for Volo that Durelin, Mac and Nogrod don't like– As I explained, I had to vote early, so I went with someone who appeared suspicious to me at the time, rather than vote at random. It really is that simple.

Well, his posts after that look bad– immediately putting the Ka and me on his suspicion list because we suspected him! However, we now know that whatever his Day One vote was about, it wasn't to save McCaber– and I do think Rikae has a point with this:

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm afraid we're making the same mistake as yesterday, if we lynch Volo -- lynching the erratic one who is actually too uncautious for a wolf.

This is something I've been worried about all along. On the first Day everyone was saying that the lack of gifteds would make it easier to spot wolves– well, yes, but it could also make people more willing to lynch "eccentric" players. On the other hand, Volo is experienced– could he really not see that he was acting in a way to make people suspect him? But then, surely he'd be more careful as a wolf? I'm not sure what to think about him right now.

One person who is starting to worry me is Durelin. I've overlooked her so far, but she's increasingly giving me a "creepy" feeling. I need to look at her some more. I still don't like the look of Mithalwen... other than that I've got no idea. What I can't see is signs that people are working together.

I'll re-read everything and hopefully be more helpful in my next post.

EDIT: X'd with Nogrod, Menel, Rikae.

[Rikae]

On second thought, I do know what Mac is. I need to stop second guessing myself -- it's just that, if I'm wrong, after all my bragging, I'll be embarrassed. Still, I'm going to trust my gut on this one now. Sorry, Schatz (and thanks for not killing me yet)... but a furry pelt and a long tail cannot be overlooked.

++Macalaure

EDIT: X'd with Nerwen, added missing "what" in first sentence.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Of, course, this praise is brought to you by a wolf trying to suck up to the guy who plans to lynch him*, but still, I can see what that means. Anyone who casts that much suspicion on known innocents is worth looking at.

Menel, most of what you are calling "casting suspicion" was simply me putting the case for and against people. Nogrod is quoting me out of context and twisting my words. (And he's the one who first cast suspicion on Gwath– I defended him.)

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Notice that this is not phrased as a suspicion! It's more of a "Stop behaving like a wolf!" warning. I've known wolves to caution their fellow pack members this way before.

It may look that way, but I was actually trying to caution the village.

[Nogrod]

What do I / we learn about my "Nerwenalysis"?

It seems to hold that she is really careful and tends to suspect / vote people others have suspected. That would be an easy way for a wolf.

On Day1 she seems to be the most agreeable with me but on Day 2 she paints myself and Boro a bit more suspicious saying I was one taking part of getting Gwath killed - with Boro - in which she is again following the common talk at the time.

Doesn't mention Volo on Day1 but jumps on him as much as to vote him on Day 2 because of his vote and the way he defended it. And she wasn't the first one to point that out. Voted for him early enough.

She puts Mac and Lommy on Day 1 to the same category of a roundabout "yes and no" and on Day 2 she seems to declare them innocents...

She kind of banters with Rikae on Day1 (even if to prove a point in the first instance) and on Day2 she claims she is innocentish...

Dury only gets a "never played with her before" or "likewise"?

Greenie never appears on her lists...


So looking at Nerwen kind of makes me uneasy. She's too careful to my taste and trailing the suspicions others have made as I know she can make cases herself. She has talked about busy scheduals and I'm quite ready to believe in that sort of thing but somehow she looks a bit too careful.

If that's enough to lynch her...?

Well she at least moves up a noch upwards on my suspicion-list...

EDIT: just saw the latest posts and need to think again...

[Nogrod]

How come Rikae you're so sure?

I mean I have had my suspicions on Mac but this looks like quite extraordinary.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How come Rikae you're so sure?

I mean I have had my suspicions on Mac but this looks like quite extraordinary.

Really mostly by feeling. I've observed in past games that Mac tends to act controversially, and look suspicious, even as an ordo, but he takes on a certain, subtle attitude as a wolf that isn't there otherwise. I don't know how to describe it -- it's a sort of combination of touchyness and pride that isn't there otherwise. He also is quite capable of a wolf-slip -- I've seen him make them in other games, and cover them up, but doesn't hide his certainty of other people's innocence very well. The thing Greenie (?) pointed out in his post about McCaber fits that profile. I also know that, as a wolf, he's especially annoyed when people suspect him for the things he "didn't do" instead of the things he "did do" -- and his post late yesterday, that I called wolvish, suggests that same frustration. An ordo Mac is less prone to that, in my experience -- he's more laid back in that case. Still, it is mainly this feeling I have, and have been arguing with myself about all along, that he's a wolf. It seems that logic doesn't serve me very well, while intuition has generally served me better, so I thought I would get that out there, for what it's worth, and vote where my suspicions point me.

[Durelin]

Okay, apparently my plans for tomorrow have been rescheduled for Sunday, so I will be able to be around longer than expected.

Mac - You caught me being sloppy twice. I didn't explain my whole 'buddying up' thing very well, and really that's a pretty bad name for it. Part of what I thought was so odd was how back and forth Rikae was about you, either defending you and jumping on Little Green's vote against you, or calling you a wolf. Huh, I guess looking back it was more Rikae who made you two seem odd in that way than you.

Second thing - I agree with you on A Little Green as really skating by very neatly, and while I agree the placement of her vote for you should be considered, I don't think that should be what makes her suddenly a top suspect.

You're still largely interested in what happens to you...I guess you have been getting a lot of crap this game, but...

Rikae has voted. For Mac. Sooo...what happened to A Little Green?

I really don't know why you bothered quoting Nerwen's initial in-character banter in your analysis, Nogrod. Straw-clutching a bit? Makes a good bit of it seem almost contrived... But I am glad someone's looking at Nerwen seriously.

Personally, I'm focusing my energy on Rikae and A Little Green. Actually, putting their names together almost seems to click a little...their contact has been very limited and rather indirect, largely over Mac...oh, I'm pulling things out of my head, which I do not trust - I need to go back and look. Unfortunately my eyes are starting to burn staring at the comp screen so that will have to be later...

Edit: Crossed with Rikae

[Nogrod]

Okay.

It's coming too late for me to stay awake.

But there really has been things going on! We should read these posts of toDay carefully indeed.

I hope people post as we're at the crucial moments. It's 7-3 at the moment and that doesn't look too bad in itself, but on the beginning of Day 4 (the next Day) it will be 5-3 if we don't get it right toDay and if we miss on the next Day, it's the end...

So let's concentrate.

I'm to sleep now.

PS. Looking at Rikae's last post. You seem to make some of the same points I've thought were problematic with Mac. The way he said he was the talk of the town on Day1 like wolves feel they are when he actually wasn't (and which was the initial reason - combined with my personal annoyance that he began the game with suspecting me from out of the blue and with no points whatsoever once again - admitted), and his overall touchiness that lends itself to the posts he made in the end of the last Day don't look good even if he's good enough to make posts that otherwise look believable - the art in which certain people are the masters (so should I look at you if Mac turns out innocent? ).

But that's a case to be considered. Now I'm off to sleep.

EDIT: X'd with Dury

[Nerwen]

Rikae, after reading the late posts yesterDay I'm less inclined to think Mac innocent that I did– and, yes, he's had a strange edginess to his manner. Do remember, though, that part of the case against him depends on Greenie's theory that he let slip his knowledge that McCaber was a wolf. Obviously this no longer applies (though Greenie seems not to have realized this fully– see #281 toDay).

Also:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This seems to be the plan of the wolves, to make our loud and wordy ones argue in circles and lynch each other.

Now, if you assume he is furry, that sounds like a smoothly-delivered gloat-cum-double-bluff, which hardly sits with his observed nervousness.

[Meneltarmacil]

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

Menel, I am not trying to absolve Mac– in fact I'm saying that I'm re-thinking my opinion of him. I did not detail what I meant by his "edginess" because I'd only be repeating observations already made by Greenie and Rikae.

What in Middle-earth do you mean by "valid criticisms"? Mac can't have let slip that he knew McCaber was a wolf. McCaber wasn't a wolf.

[Nerwen]

I said I'd look at Durelin.

Earlier I couldn't get a read on her, except that this:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Okay, I feel now I can vote for McCab. I mean, how shocking that he returns suspicious of Gwath

sounded overdone, if you know what I mean.

Other than that, she hasn't said that much, but her posts yesterDay (#213) and toDay (#279 and #299) look like she's both trying to agree with everyone and suspect everyone at the same time. Possibly so she can safely jump on any given wagon that presents itself?

Admittedly, this is rather thin– and also I don't know how she usually plays– but I don’t think she should be allowed to slip by the way she’s doing.

Menel next.

[Macalaure]

Rikae's vote for me was.. unexpected. If this was the vote of a wolf, it was a bold one, because it sticks out badly and will come to haunt her in case I'm lynched and found innocent. But then, maybe the wolves play safe at night and bold at day. Playing differently at night and day is a good cover. I still like my other top suspects better than her, since they're being more sneaky.

I might be becoming too confident in my suspicion, Durelin, but your explanations don't sound too convincing. You say Lily is skating by neatly, which is very vague. Her placement should be considered but shouldn't make her a top suspect suddenly? Now really, what does that mean? You have somebody skating by, then you find something that you admit is suspicious, and you say it isn't that bad? That's an accusation and a defense within only one half of a sentence. By the way, it's the reasoning of her votes that makes her suspicious to me, not the placement. My apologies if you're innocent and honest about this, but you're also all of a sudden being suspiciously nice to me in your last post.

I had some reservations about calling Nerwen innocent the past two Days, but reading her posts of toDay finally make me confident in saying so.

Menel seems more innocent, too, but rather off the track. I think you're too fixed on a few people and lose objectivity. While this makes you appear innocent to me, it's not too helpful.

[A Little Green]

Okay I don't have time now to write anything long and will be gone for most of the Day, but I'll certainly be back a few hours before deadline.

From toDay's posts, Mac looks worse, I'm baffled about Nerwen and feel better about both Nog and Menel.

I've got to go now. Sorry.

[Nerwen]

I’ve ending up analysing Menel in more detail than Durelin, because there’s more to go on (whereas she seems to be trying to be as vague as possible).

Day 1.

#20. Says Lommy is provoking Gwath and “casting suspicion on him for no good reason”. Makes prediction: he will suspect Boro who will prove innocent.

#23. Says Lommy is “jokingly casting suspicion” on Gwath. Says this is a wolf-tactic.

#33. (I think replying to Boro’s comment about Lommy’s playing style) “To be honest, I believe people have their own styles of playing and tend to use them regardless of their roles. I honestly don't think we can find a wolf by playing style here, and I would doubt that Lommy actually plays differently based on her role.”

To quote myself on the same Day (#59):

looks to me like he's saying, "See? I didn't jump on Boro's suggestions at all!"

Says his comment on Boro was because Boro has usually been innocent when he suspected him.

#43. Is (quite reasonably, I think) puzzled by Mac jumping on Nogrod’s line about “protecting our assets”.

#72. Doesn’t know why Mac thought Nogrod’s line worth mentioning; doesn’t know what to make of McCaber.

#101. Lommy and Mac are odd; suspects Mac more. Doesn’t suspect Gwath. Votes Mac (gives no reason).


Day 2.

#179. Suspects Mac and McCaber.

#189. Agrees with Boro that Mith is suspicious. Votes McCaber on the grounds that he voted Gwath on such weak reasons.

Day 3.

#289. Says the “Caberwagon” will probably shed light on who the wolves are. Sees Nogrod, Volo and Mac as suspicious.

#291. Finds Nogrod’s analysis of me “revealing” and goes on to theorize that Mac and I are wolves together.

#302. Says I’m “trying to ‘suspect’ Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. (For the record: I'm not– I'm just trying to think it out.)

General comments: veering around like a weathervane, and seems willing to suspect whoever the last poster did. But is he a wolf trying to play safe, or just a bewildered innocent? I could read it either way.

EDIT: X'd with Mac and Greenie.
EDIT 2: fixed tags.

[Nerwen]

I need to look at some more people; still don't have any clear ideas on who the wolves are. This is like a replay of last game, only worse. (Hands up who still thinks gifteds are useless?)

Just a reminder to everyone: The Departure of Boromir means there are now three wolves vs seven innocents. If we don't get a wolf toDay, toMorrow could be the end, so please be very careful with your votes.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, a quick-ish posts before I'll start the analyses.

I don't like the way Mac casts suspicion on me. I dare to claim he knows me well enough that if he was innocent, he'd know that as a wolf I'd never ever play this way - unless I had suddenly become a ww genious, which (sadly) hasn't happened. If Mac had to follow his honest feelings instead of what could look suspicious, I doubt he'd suspect me. The same goes for Rikae too, but to a far lesser extent. They both know how I play and if they are without any knowledge of who's innocent and who's not, they should realise that I play as only an ordo-Lommy can. But if they are wolves, they need to fabricate their suspicions and grasp at suspicious behaviour - which is why they suspect me, because how I normally play does - I guess - look relatively suspicios on standard terms. Now, this logic doesn't possibly make sense to anyone else but me and it can't convince anyone else but me (for you can't know that I'm innocent, unless you're wolves), but nevertheless, I feel I'm right here and this is one of the main reasons I suspect and have suspected Mac in this game. And I know that probably looks like a very fishy thing to say, but it's true, it's how I feel. (And dare to call it wolvish and I'll say you are wolves too because I'd never dare to write anything like that as a wolf... )

Continuing on this logic, I find it rather troubling that while a couple of people have suspected me quite a lot even during this game, they have done nothing concrete about it. No cases against me, no votes. (I'm looking at Mac especially here.) Why? because they don't want a full-frontal retaliatory attack fro me because they have something to hide? Nah, that is possible, but I rather think it is because they know I'm innocent and getting an innocent experienced loudmouth lynched never looks too good.

What else? Since Nogrod's analysis Nerwen has felt less innocent. Actually, I look at everything she says with a reservation I did not have before and there's something evil-looking in there. Now I'm slightly concerned about how I was this well turned by Nogrod's analysis and will refrain commenting on Nerwen before I've analysed Nogrod.

Even though I feel this way, I feel a bit alarmed about Menel's quick jump to supporting Nogrod's somewhat critical Nerwen-analysis. It looks like he really had no reservations about Nogrod's motives or that he didn't really consider Nerwen but rather jumped on what could later become a bandwagon.

Originally Posted by Mac

I don't know what you're talking about (what contradiction?), and I think you're pushing your Nog, Rikae, Mac, (Boro) thing way to hard. You look like a wolf trying to get the village to lynch an(y) innocent loudmouth.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I will say that I don't like her "almost 100% certainty" one bit... primarily because she herself belongs on the list of experienced, loud and helpful players if anyone does, and by highlighting the others she manages to sidestep the spotlight.

(In response to both) Sorry, I don't understand your logic. First off, Mac, if I was trying to get someone killed, I think I'd rather be actually throwing points against him/her, not mentioning that I should do an analysis of him/her, which is a relative neutral thing to say and generally doesn't convince people to lynch the person in question. Fishy, my friend, fishy.
Rikae... I know I'm loud, I know I'm experienced (if you count by number of games, more experienced than you, Mac or Boro) and I know I can be helpful. But while all the four of you have seemed very confident throughout the game and I've only been baffled and not feeling I'm playing well at all, so I kind of feel inferior to you guys right now. I mean, I can see all the four of you strongly affecting other villagers' opinions, while I just can't see myself doing that in this game, rather just sailing here and there with my suspicions that are probably far off the mark. I hope that explained something...

I'm torn about Mith. On the other hand, there's something sinister around her, but on the other hand, her declaration of innocence speaks for her actual innocence and RL reasons are RL reasons... I think I should have a look at her, too, if I have time.

There's something very suspicious in Durelin's very manner toDay and it's confusing me. And no, I'm afraid I can't elaborate, it's more like a feeling.

Ok, now I'm off to do Macalysis as it seems like a rather urgent matter... then I will probably proceed to Noglysis to re-judge the him-Nerwen thing and lastly, if I have time, I'll look at Rikae who started to feel more innocent because of her vote. Although, I really wouldn't put it past her to vote her fellow like that.

See? I'm already assuming Mac's a wolf... not good...

[Volo]

Gah! This is terrible! Too much porridge, I just can't have it all.

By this time I'm quite sure that the Wolves would slip a few gloats in.


Before Nerwen's posts toDay, I felt she's a Wolf (and possibly in a team with Durelin), but after she looks more Innocent. I think I'll have to go through the whole case again. At the very least, she's putting some distance between herself and Durelin.


Mac has been a target of attacks based on gut feelings from both Rikae and Lommy, though both explained their gut feelings. Nogrod agreed with Rikae's explanation. Another mess.
I agree that during yesterDay's vote rush, Mac felt bad, a bit like in Nogrod's game - even to the point of teaming up with me (even though I did that myself with him, I regard anybody agreeing with me suspicious ). Still it was Rikae who felt like the gloating one.
Lommy on the other hand felt genuine, as she does toDay.


Lily is another subject altogether, she feels more Innocent than ever before, but I can't bring myself to agree with anything she says. Her style is provocative and she looks like grasping at straws. I think I'll have to reread what she has said.


I might as well go through everybody, starting with Durelin and Menel. What I said in this post has pretty much been based on my own feelings - I'll go and see if logicn and truth backs them up.

[Nerwen]

Lommynalysis:

I'm going to have to split this into three parts, because she's posted a lot.

Day 1

#4. Banter: teases “Gwathy”. Says

now we can pursue suspicious behaviour without worrying that we're flushing out gifteds.

So we have Lommy to thank for starting that particular ball rolling. All the same, I still can't see why people jumped on her for this post, which looks very innocent to me.

#5.

Just noticed this: looks like only wolves can talk now. So did we now reveal ourselves, Gwathie?

Now, I can understand why people might call that wolfish (double-bluffing and all), but I really think she’s just being silly– it’s only the fifth post, after all.

#10. More banter with Gwath.

#16. Says if she has no real suspect by the end of the Day, she will vote a non-contributor.

#18. Questions Mac’s suspicion of Nogrod. Says Mac is “odd”.

#19. (Answering Boro)

Boro, the flaw in your logic is that I'm always dead nervous and unsure as a wolf. I never really enjoy it. So if I'm genuinely confident and enjoying myself, I'm innocent. Which of course doesn't mean I couldn't try to feign confidence if I was a wolf. But I'm bad at deception so if I'm only playing confident I'm probably ringing false or overdoing it...

So we also have Lommy to thank for starting the “If I were a wolf I’d do X” fashion in arguments.

#21. (Answering Menel, who says she’s casting suspicion on Gwath)

Provoking? Yes, deliberatedly. Casting suspicion? *raises eyebrow* Not so that I can see it. That was a curious accusation.

#25. (Answering Menel again). Points out that her second post, if taken seriously, would incriminate her as well as Gwath.

#26. (Answering Mac). Says she’s not accusing him, jusy making an observation.

#61. (Answering Menel, who says playing styles show nothing).

As a wolf I never intentionally play differently, but it shows in my behaviour nevertheless so I do end up playing a bit differently.

Find Sally, Boro, and me innocent. Volo and McCaber have “an aura of hidden evilry”.

#67. Wonders where Greenie is. Says Mac thinks everyone is talking about him when they are not– a possible sign of wolfish paranoia.

#69. Does not like McCaber’s suspicion of Gwath. Thinks Rikae may be intentionally trying to involve the village in useless speculation about “the me-Mac-Boro-Sally-Durelin-Gwath thing”. Says the Ka’s meandering is normal.

#99. Agrees with Boromir that Volo is suspicious. Agrees with Boro and Greenie that Gwath’s vote is troubling, but cautions,

Gwath could be the easy newbie lynch victim. *sigh*

Makes a list:

Innocentish
Nerwen
Boro
Sally

Slightly innocentish
THE Ka
Menel

Neutral
Mith
Greenie
Durelin
Nogrod
Rikae

Suspicious-ish
Volo
McCaber
Gwath
Mac”

# 100. Says she should consider Nogrod innocent,

but some weird brake in my head restrains me from doing so. *shrugs*

#107. Could vote Volo, McCaber, Gwath or Mac. Agrees with Nogrod that “we should not vote vocal players without comparing their suspiciosness to their loudness”. Says she will leave Mac alone and vote Volo, McCaber or Gwathagor.

#110. Would rather vote Volo or McCaber than Gwath.

#125. Says Mac’s post on Nogrod is eally about Mac, and that his defensiveness makes her suspect him more.

#131. Says voting Gwath feels wrong

but voting Boro would feel even more so... *sigh*

#136. Votes McCaber, “to whatever end”.

#139. (I think answering Nogrod, who says we should look at Volo and McCaber): “What?”

(Yes, very short post).

#145. (After DL) Asks if Volo’s vote counts as a vote for Gwath or The Ka.

Comments: Well, on Day One Lommy is indecisive, throws suspicion around, and now and then it looks as if she's taking instruction from Nogrod. (Also I find that "*sigh*" thing she does rather irritating). However, my impression here is that she's innocent and behaving a bit erratically as a result of having come under heavy fire almost immediately.

Lommy: Day Two coming soon to a WW thread near you.

EDIT: fixed tags.

EDIT 2: fixed more tags. X'd with Volo, Lommy.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't like the way Mac casts suspicion on me. I dare to claim he knows me well enough that if he was innocent, he'd know that as a wolf I'd never ever play this way - unless I had suddenly become a ww genious, which (sadly) hasn't happened. If Mac had to follow his honest feelings instead of what could look suspicious, I doubt he'd suspect me. The same goes for Rikae too, but to a far lesser extent. They both know how I play and if they are without any knowledge of who's innocent and who's not, they should realise that I play as only an ordo-Lommy can. But if they are wolves, they need to fabricate their suspicions and grasp at suspicious behaviour - which is why they suspect me, because how I normally play does - I guess - look relatively suspicios on standard terms. Now, this logic doesn't possibly make sense to anyone else but me and it can't convince anyone else but me (for you can't know that I'm innocent, unless you're wolves), but nevertheless, I feel I'm right here and this is one of the main reasons I suspect and have suspected Mac in this game. And I know that probably looks like a very fishy thing to say, but it's true, it's how I feel. (And dare to call it wolvish and I'll say you are wolves too because I'd never dare to write anything like that as a wolf... )

What I find extremely suspicious about this bit, is how conscious you are about your way of playing. You seem to be convinced that you're playing precisely like you always play and, whether this is true or not, an ordo wouldn't be aware of it. An ordo usually automatically falls into his/her common style of play, but not intentionally. Only wolves, and maybe gifteds occasionally, do that.
You are admitting you're acting suspicious, in a lommy-ish "unsuspicious" way. However, in the paragraph beneath, you say that nobody has yet made a case against you. You seem to be aware of doing suspicious things without having people point them out to you - again, typically wolvish.

Continuing on this logic, I find it rather troubling that while a couple of people have suspected me quite a lot even during this game, they have done nothing concrete about it. No cases against me, no votes. (I'm looking at Mac especially here.) Why? because they don't want a full-frontal retaliatory attack fro me because they have something to hide? Nah, that is possible, but I rather think it is because they know I'm innocent and getting an innocent experienced loudmouth lynched never looks too good.

YesterDay I had to vote so save myself, the Day before I didn't vote for you because there was no chance to actually lynch you, and I don't like throwing my vote away like that.

Sorry, I don't understand your logic. First off, Mac, if I was trying to get someone killed, I think I'd rather be actually throwing points against him/her, not mentioning that I should do an analysis of him/her, which is a relative neutral thing to say and generally doesn't convince people to lynch the person in question. Fishy, my friend, fishy.

If you were innocent, yes. But you aren't. You're vaguely pointing in the directions of people you'd like to get rid of, hoping the ordos bite on it and make the strong cases by themselves. Considering your night kills, you and your wolfmates are obviously looking for the big ones lynching each other during the Days. Your Day behaviour, and that of Durelin and Lily, too, for that matter, fits perfectly to the wolf kills.

Rikae... I know I'm loud, I know I'm experienced (if you count by number of games, more experienced than you, Mac or Boro) and I know I can be helpful. But while all the four of you have seemed very confident throughout the game and I've only been baffled and not feeling I'm playing well at all, so I kind of feel inferior to you guys right now. I mean, I can see all the four of you strongly affecting other villagers' opinions, while I just can't see myself doing that in this game, rather just sailing here and there with my suspicions that are probably far off the mark. I hope that explained something...

Oh, for crying out loud... I have never seen anybody, including you (who claims to play like she always does!), fish for pity like that. If you really wrote these lines honestly, then I'm honestly sorry for being so incompassionate, but I highly, highly doubt it.


++Thinlómien

Ridiculously early vote, I know. I also know that I might need my vote to save myself toDay once more. However, I'm sure nearly beyond doubt that Lommy, Durelin, and Lily are our wolves. This makes me less afraid of being lynched myself, because in that case you will have the benefit of knowing this opinion is honest.

[Thinlómien]

Ok, I did some of my Macalysis (Day1 and the beginning of Day2) but now my friends came to see me so I'll finish and post it later.

edit: semi-xed with Volo, Nerwen and Mac (who is a wolf obviously because he voted me - I'll elaborate on that later)

[Volo]

You know what? I've got a feeling that either both Lommy and Mac are Wolves, or neither is.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Do remember, though, that part of the case against him depends on Greenie's theory that he let slip his knowledge that McCaber was a wolf. Obviously this no longer applies (though Greenie seems not to have realized this fully– see #281 toDay).

Actually, (as I mentioned yesterday), to me thhe post Greenie pointed out made more sense from the point of view that Mac knew McCaber was innocent.

[Nerwen]

Lommynalysis

Day 2.

#151. Doesn’t understand why Mith thinks Sally’s death incriminates A Little Green. Points out that we can’t lynch Aganzir, in spite of her low post count. Sally was probably just a safe kill, but that her posts should still be examined, as should the Day One votes.

#159. Suspects McCaber and Mithalwen– thinks Mith is acting towards Boro as Rikae did to Mac in the last game. In confused by Mac– finds him “nervously defensive”– he remind her of herself when furry. Asks Nogrod to elaborate on why he suspects certain people. Disagrees with Mac that Sally’s death exonerates The Ka.

#182. Thinks Rikae innocent. (Replying to Mac) says her vote for McCaber X’d with others and would have been neither risky nor smart even if were she a wolf. Doesn’t like, Boro, Nogrod or The Ka. Says Nogrod, Greenie, Durelin & THE Ka have slipped under her radar.

#186. Finds Volo suspicious.

#187. Mac seems more innocent, others less so. Makes a list:

Innocentish
Nerwen

Slightly innocentish
Rikae
Boro
THE Ka


Neutral
Nogrod
Mac
A Little Green (ugh, she really slips under my radar)

Slightly suspicious-ish
Durelin
Menel

Suspicious-ish
McCaber
Mith

Suspicious
Volo

#199. Is struck by Greenie’s theory that Mac slipped up and revealed his knowledge that McCaber was a wolf. Says the quote could also be read to mean that Mac knew McCaber was innocent. Then say the quote seems normal after all.

#212. Says there’s little point examining the people who said they were only voting on Day One to save Boromir. Volo “looks so foul it hurts”. Yet his frustation seems innocent. Still confused about Mac.

#217. Finds Mith innocent because she herself, if a wolf, would never do something as blatant as actually proclaiming her innocence.

I mean, as a wolf, I would never do such a proclamation of innocence. I could say I'm innocent, but I would not make a show of it. It would feel so completely dishonest. Maybe I'm naive, but I instinctively assume other people be as honest/stupid as me...

(Now that I do not like– it's almost creepily self-conscious)

Doesn’t understand why Durelin thinks she’s “freaking”.

#253. Would like to vote McCaber or Volo.

#258. Votes Volo.

#259. (Replying to Rikae, who says we shouldn’t give Boro a free pass) This should be remembered.

#262. (Replying to Rikae, who says Volo is too uncautious to be a wolf) With no seer the wolves can afford being uncautious... which isn't saying I'm sure about Volo's guilt.

#268. (After Mac says he’d prefer voting McCaber to Volo) Mac looks innocent and should not be lynched.

Comment: Flip-flopping as usual. Still seems innocent, even if #217 gives me pause.

EDIT: fixed tags; X'd with Rikae.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, (as I mentioned yesterday), to me thhe post Greenie pointed out made more sense from the point of view that Mac knew McCaber was innocent.

Yes, and Lommy said the same thing. I just saw that now while re-reading yesterDay's posts.

Hmmn. Maybe you're right about him after all. I don't like his reasons for voting Lommy.

[Rikae]

You know, if Mac does actually turn out innocent after all, it would be a good idea to take seriously the accusations he's made today, I think.
Actually, even if he is a wolf, he may be resorting to some wolf-on-wolf tactics in anticipation of being lynched... I'm inclined to think so, because I find the people he's listed suspicious as well (of course, they can't *all* be wolves, but I doubt very highly they're all innocent!)

Actually, of those three, Lommy's recent post makes me feel better about her simply because it is so subjective. It's the sort of glimpse into her own psyche (remember, Lommy, you don't necessarily look the same to us as you do to yourself) that would be hard for a wolf to fake.

EDIT: Removed floating punctuation, X'd with Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

No, I don't think it's Lommy. I've just re-read everything she said in the first two Days, and I highly doubt she's a wolf. The other two would certainly bear looking at. I haven't given much thought to Greenie... and Durelin I find positively creepy.

[Volo]

I was distracted by an ordered trip to the shop, but now I've went through Durelin.

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.