Werewolf XLIV: In the House of Tom Bombadil

[Nogrod]

How come Rikae you're so sure?

I mean I have had my suspicions on Mac but this looks like quite extraordinary.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How come Rikae you're so sure?

I mean I have had my suspicions on Mac but this looks like quite extraordinary.

Really mostly by feeling. I've observed in past games that Mac tends to act controversially, and look suspicious, even as an ordo, but he takes on a certain, subtle attitude as a wolf that isn't there otherwise. I don't know how to describe it -- it's a sort of combination of touchyness and pride that isn't there otherwise. He also is quite capable of a wolf-slip -- I've seen him make them in other games, and cover them up, but doesn't hide his certainty of other people's innocence very well. The thing Greenie (?) pointed out in his post about McCaber fits that profile. I also know that, as a wolf, he's especially annoyed when people suspect him for the things he "didn't do" instead of the things he "did do" -- and his post late yesterday, that I called wolvish, suggests that same frustration. An ordo Mac is less prone to that, in my experience -- he's more laid back in that case. Still, it is mainly this feeling I have, and have been arguing with myself about all along, that he's a wolf. It seems that logic doesn't serve me very well, while intuition has generally served me better, so I thought I would get that out there, for what it's worth, and vote where my suspicions point me.

[Nogrod]

Okay.

It's coming too late for me to stay awake.

But there really has been things going on! We should read these posts of toDay carefully indeed.

I hope people post as we're at the crucial moments. It's 7-3 at the moment and that doesn't look too bad in itself, but on the beginning of Day 4 (the next Day) it will be 5-3 if we don't get it right toDay and if we miss on the next Day, it's the end...

So let's concentrate.

I'm to sleep now.

PS. Looking at Rikae's last post. You seem to make some of the same points I've thought were problematic with Mac. The way he said he was the talk of the town on Day1 like wolves feel they are when he actually wasn't (and which was the initial reason - combined with my personal annoyance that he began the game with suspecting me from out of the blue and with no points whatsoever once again - admitted), and his overall touchiness that lends itself to the posts he made in the end of the last Day don't look good even if he's good enough to make posts that otherwise look believable - the art in which certain people are the masters (so should I look at you if Mac turns out innocent? ).

But that's a case to be considered. Now I'm off to sleep.

EDIT: X'd with Dury

[Nerwen]

Rikae, after reading the late posts yesterDay I'm less inclined to think Mac innocent that I did– and, yes, he's had a strange edginess to his manner. Do remember, though, that part of the case against him depends on Greenie's theory that he let slip his knowledge that McCaber was a wolf. Obviously this no longer applies (though Greenie seems not to have realized this fully– see #281 toDay).

Also:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

This seems to be the plan of the wolves, to make our loud and wordy ones argue in circles and lynch each other.

Now, if you assume he is furry, that sounds like a smoothly-delivered gloat-cum-double-bluff, which hardly sits with his observed nervousness.

[Meneltarmacil]

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Here we go again. Nerwen is trying to "suspect" Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. Notice how she mentions some "strange edginess" and doesn't explain, but tries to shut down the more valid criticisms of him?

Menel, I am not trying to absolve Mac– in fact I'm saying that I'm re-thinking my opinion of him. I did not detail what I meant by his "edginess" because I'd only be repeating observations already made by Greenie and Rikae.

What in Middle-earth do you mean by "valid criticisms"? Mac can't have let slip that he knew McCaber was a wolf. McCaber wasn't a wolf.

[Nerwen]

I said I'd look at Durelin.

Earlier I couldn't get a read on her, except that this:

Originally Posted by Durelin

Okay, I feel now I can vote for McCab. I mean, how shocking that he returns suspicious of Gwath

sounded overdone, if you know what I mean.

Other than that, she hasn't said that much, but her posts yesterDay (#213) and toDay (#279 and #299) look like she's both trying to agree with everyone and suspect everyone at the same time. Possibly so she can safely jump on any given wagon that presents itself?

Admittedly, this is rather thin– and also I don't know how she usually plays– but I don’t think she should be allowed to slip by the way she’s doing.

Menel next.

[Macalaure]

Rikae's vote for me was.. unexpected. If this was the vote of a wolf, it was a bold one, because it sticks out badly and will come to haunt her in case I'm lynched and found innocent. But then, maybe the wolves play safe at night and bold at day. Playing differently at night and day is a good cover. I still like my other top suspects better than her, since they're being more sneaky.

I might be becoming too confident in my suspicion, Durelin, but your explanations don't sound too convincing. You say Lily is skating by neatly, which is very vague. Her placement should be considered but shouldn't make her a top suspect suddenly? Now really, what does that mean? You have somebody skating by, then you find something that you admit is suspicious, and you say it isn't that bad? That's an accusation and a defense within only one half of a sentence. By the way, it's the reasoning of her votes that makes her suspicious to me, not the placement. My apologies if you're innocent and honest about this, but you're also all of a sudden being suspiciously nice to me in your last post.

I had some reservations about calling Nerwen innocent the past two Days, but reading her posts of toDay finally make me confident in saying so.

Menel seems more innocent, too, but rather off the track. I think you're too fixed on a few people and lose objectivity. While this makes you appear innocent to me, it's not too helpful.

[Nerwen]

I’ve ending up analysing Menel in more detail than Durelin, because there’s more to go on (whereas she seems to be trying to be as vague as possible).

Day 1.

#20. Says Lommy is provoking Gwath and “casting suspicion on him for no good reason”. Makes prediction: he will suspect Boro who will prove innocent.

#23. Says Lommy is “jokingly casting suspicion” on Gwath. Says this is a wolf-tactic.

#33. (I think replying to Boro’s comment about Lommy’s playing style) “To be honest, I believe people have their own styles of playing and tend to use them regardless of their roles. I honestly don't think we can find a wolf by playing style here, and I would doubt that Lommy actually plays differently based on her role.”

To quote myself on the same Day (#59):

looks to me like he's saying, "See? I didn't jump on Boro's suggestions at all!"

Says his comment on Boro was because Boro has usually been innocent when he suspected him.

#43. Is (quite reasonably, I think) puzzled by Mac jumping on Nogrod’s line about “protecting our assets”.

#72. Doesn’t know why Mac thought Nogrod’s line worth mentioning; doesn’t know what to make of McCaber.

#101. Lommy and Mac are odd; suspects Mac more. Doesn’t suspect Gwath. Votes Mac (gives no reason).


Day 2.

#179. Suspects Mac and McCaber.

#189. Agrees with Boro that Mith is suspicious. Votes McCaber on the grounds that he voted Gwath on such weak reasons.

Day 3.

#289. Says the “Caberwagon” will probably shed light on who the wolves are. Sees Nogrod, Volo and Mac as suspicious.

#291. Finds Nogrod’s analysis of me “revealing” and goes on to theorize that Mac and I are wolves together.

#302. Says I’m “trying to ‘suspect’ Mac while absolving him of guilt at the same time. (For the record: I'm not– I'm just trying to think it out.)

General comments: veering around like a weathervane, and seems willing to suspect whoever the last poster did. But is he a wolf trying to play safe, or just a bewildered innocent? I could read it either way.

EDIT: X'd with Mac and Greenie.
EDIT 2: fixed tags.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Do remember, though, that part of the case against him depends on Greenie's theory that he let slip his knowledge that McCaber was a wolf. Obviously this no longer applies (though Greenie seems not to have realized this fully– see #281 toDay).

Actually, (as I mentioned yesterday), to me thhe post Greenie pointed out made more sense from the point of view that Mac knew McCaber was innocent.

[Nerwen]

Lommynalysis

Day 2.

#151. Doesn’t understand why Mith thinks Sally’s death incriminates A Little Green. Points out that we can’t lynch Aganzir, in spite of her low post count. Sally was probably just a safe kill, but that her posts should still be examined, as should the Day One votes.

#159. Suspects McCaber and Mithalwen– thinks Mith is acting towards Boro as Rikae did to Mac in the last game. In confused by Mac– finds him “nervously defensive”– he remind her of herself when furry. Asks Nogrod to elaborate on why he suspects certain people. Disagrees with Mac that Sally’s death exonerates The Ka.

#182. Thinks Rikae innocent. (Replying to Mac) says her vote for McCaber X’d with others and would have been neither risky nor smart even if were she a wolf. Doesn’t like, Boro, Nogrod or The Ka. Says Nogrod, Greenie, Durelin & THE Ka have slipped under her radar.

#186. Finds Volo suspicious.

#187. Mac seems more innocent, others less so. Makes a list:

Innocentish
Nerwen

Slightly innocentish
Rikae
Boro
THE Ka


Neutral
Nogrod
Mac
A Little Green (ugh, she really slips under my radar)

Slightly suspicious-ish
Durelin
Menel

Suspicious-ish
McCaber
Mith

Suspicious
Volo

#199. Is struck by Greenie’s theory that Mac slipped up and revealed his knowledge that McCaber was a wolf. Says the quote could also be read to mean that Mac knew McCaber was innocent. Then say the quote seems normal after all.

#212. Says there’s little point examining the people who said they were only voting on Day One to save Boromir. Volo “looks so foul it hurts”. Yet his frustation seems innocent. Still confused about Mac.

#217. Finds Mith innocent because she herself, if a wolf, would never do something as blatant as actually proclaiming her innocence.

I mean, as a wolf, I would never do such a proclamation of innocence. I could say I'm innocent, but I would not make a show of it. It would feel so completely dishonest. Maybe I'm naive, but I instinctively assume other people be as honest/stupid as me...

(Now that I do not like– it's almost creepily self-conscious)

Doesn’t understand why Durelin thinks she’s “freaking”.

#253. Would like to vote McCaber or Volo.

#258. Votes Volo.

#259. (Replying to Rikae, who says we shouldn’t give Boro a free pass) This should be remembered.

#262. (Replying to Rikae, who says Volo is too uncautious to be a wolf) With no seer the wolves can afford being uncautious... which isn't saying I'm sure about Volo's guilt.

#268. (After Mac says he’d prefer voting McCaber to Volo) Mac looks innocent and should not be lynched.

Comment: Flip-flopping as usual. Still seems innocent, even if #217 gives me pause.

EDIT: fixed tags; X'd with Rikae.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, (as I mentioned yesterday), to me thhe post Greenie pointed out made more sense from the point of view that Mac knew McCaber was innocent.

Yes, and Lommy said the same thing. I just saw that now while re-reading yesterDay's posts.

Hmmn. Maybe you're right about him after all. I don't like his reasons for voting Lommy.

[Rikae]

You know, if Mac does actually turn out innocent after all, it would be a good idea to take seriously the accusations he's made today, I think.
Actually, even if he is a wolf, he may be resorting to some wolf-on-wolf tactics in anticipation of being lynched... I'm inclined to think so, because I find the people he's listed suspicious as well (of course, they can't *all* be wolves, but I doubt very highly they're all innocent!)

Actually, of those three, Lommy's recent post makes me feel better about her simply because it is so subjective. It's the sort of glimpse into her own psyche (remember, Lommy, you don't necessarily look the same to us as you do to yourself) that would be hard for a wolf to fake.

EDIT: Removed floating punctuation, X'd with Nerwen.

[Nerwen]

No, I don't think it's Lommy. I've just re-read everything she said in the first two Days, and I highly doubt she's a wolf. The other two would certainly bear looking at. I haven't given much thought to Greenie... and Durelin I find positively creepy.

[Volo]

I was distracted by an ordered trip to the shop, but now I've went through Durelin.

Durelin has been right, very much so. So far she has been wrong only with McCaber. At the moment she has this Mac, Rikae and Lily thing going, but at no point Durelin has tried getting somebody lynched, she is playing carefully.
I would like to think of her as Innocent, because she has so far been rather right, but what do you others think. I mean, somehow she slips from the discussion.