Werewolf XLVI: Getting Back to Basics

[Nogrod]

I don't know what it is exactly but Lommy's first post looks wolvish indeed. It's probably the whole way she approaches Agan's and Lhuna's passing... It looks like a combination of dowplaying our misery, apologising for the kills, thinking like the wolves...

I'm going to look back at yesterDay to see if I can find anything that would help us from there. I hope as many of you do the same.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't know what it is exactly but Lommy's first post looks wolvish indeed. It's probably the whole way she approaches Agan's and Lhuna's passing... It looks like a combination of dowplaying our misery, apologising for the kills, thinking like the wolves...

Well I was very tempted to mourn Lhuna more vocally and say "what did I say about lynching her being a bad idea" but decided not to be so self-promoting... Anyway, partly because of that comment you just made it to my suspicion list.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Anyway, partly because of that comment you just made it to my suspicion list.

So you play this in the good old retaliation way now Lommy?

I will not suspect you if you ask questions about me as that's what we need to do. The wolves only need to make friends and rub you nicely. We innocents need to look at everything and everyone and make the questions that need to be asked so that we can either start suspeting more or to clear someone - at least for a while. But without trying every possible idea we will never get the wolves.

And that goes to you Legate as well. You should know better than that. You can't play without suspecting left and right and looking which dog howls when the stick hits.

If you guys decide your votes on the basis of who is nice to you please go ahead but just remember the wolves are your best mates when the sun still shines. During the Nights it will be different.

I may shut my big mouth and not give you any new ideas if they so upset you. Or are you wolves who do not like the direction this is going?

Gah.

Sorry. I got a bit carried away but two similar posts like that following each other kind of frustrated me. Please go on and suspect me and I can say why you're wrong - and take my points on you in the similar fashion as decent questions to be answered by you.

[Thinlómien]

Nogrod, stop preaching. Besides, the last time I heard that speech you were a wolf, so it's exactly not helping.... I'll write something more constructive in a minute...

EDIT: sorry for editing for such a silly reason but I just realised this is my 4,000th post... yay...

[Thinlómien]

I have not reread anything, but if we can trust Nogrod's facts, then I think it is most probable that Lhuna dreamt of Oddwen or Agan. This might be a reason for why Agan was killed, too.

And Nogrod, like I said, that preaching is absolutely unnecessary. I don't have anything against you suspecting me. I don't even have anything against you doing it rather forcefully or even on weak grounds. But I might have something to say if you do it in a manner that I consider suspicious.

I know I sometimes automatically trust people because they say they trust me. I know it's bad. But I am able to remind myself of it being stupid myself, thank you, Mr Nogrod. I don't think I've made such a judgement mistake in this game this far. I will tell you if I have.

And as for retaliatory suspects... yes, they're not a good thing in principle, but make more sense than it first seems. I mean, if I'm an innocent and you accuse me, I can see that it's a baseless case. Unless I'm a seer, I can't know it of your cases against other people. Everybody makes baseless cases, yes, but wolves do that more than other people do.


edit: xed with Gwath and Legate

[Nogrod]

Agan on others...

She called both Legate and Lommy Frollo who speaks of having a clear conscience while his hands were bloody.

She thought Gwath is not suspcious because of his distaste for Day1's but for other reasons (befriending Legate).

Said:

But this doesn't actually matter since Gwathy, Oddwen and Lhuna are the wolves and I'm just the cobbler trying to defend them against the nasty Nogrod.

Mith is innocent.

The ones she suspected: Gwath (explanatory behaviour), Legate (delibertely behaving odd), Lommy (too happy), Nogrod (using Noggish reasons).

Thought Kath to be an innocent.

Suspected Lhuna and Legate being fellow-wolves.

Answered Legate's speculation of her possible innocense with

Last time Legate-sika said so he was a wolf. I have no reason to assume he is this time different.

Threathened Gwath with:

Gwathy, see my post #49, I asked you something. Last game you were a wolf you got too far by ignoring suspicions and questions, and I won't let it happen again.

Thought Volo's self vote is not incrimatory and suspected Legate, Gwath and Lhuna. Adds that Lhuna's death might be the most informative. Votes Legate because Lhuna "will die anyway".

...
Others on Agan:

Lommy said of Agan:

Agan then, she seems quite innocent and in a different way than she usually does. (Usually when she seems innocent to me she's a wolf.) She's not as careful and as unsuspicious as she's as a wolf.

Next she lists her as the second innocent looking with Mith.

Nogrod said:

Agan's questioning of the grounds for the suspicions & her opposition to Gwath's suspiciousness speak good of her as wolves would love to cling into any generally shared suspicion whenever there's one and Gwath has been mentioned as suspicious by a few already.

Kath said:

some nice random accusations, pretty normal Day 1 fare.

putting her into the innocent category.

Gwath reacted to her point about wolves not making too much plans on Day1:

It just seems so far out that I can't tell whether she really thinks it and is just kind of crazy, or whether she's trying to fool us.

Legate says:

looks innocentish to me, although I am aware that when she looks innocent, she generally isn't and vice versa, however I would like to hope this time it's different.

The Elf Warrior votes for her by a hunch.

A few thoughts coming in a minute.

[Nogrod]

First of all it looks like Agan got killed because she was generally thought of as an innocent.

Another interpretation is that she was getting something right with Gwath, Legate and / or Lommy and the wolf / wolves decided to take a dangerous adversary out of the way.

Third interpretation is that it's all a set up and people like Kath, Nerwen and Volo are just grinning in the shadows.

Combinations of these reasons are possible.


Legate's point on Oddwen and Lommy's on Aganzir are plausible (well, I wouldn't have included implausible cases in my list - like myself, Legate or Volo as the ones she would have dreamt) even if I tend to believe it was Mith she had her dream of. I wasn't going to take anything for granted from there but surely these interpretations direct each of us to look at some places rather than not. And these facts need to be brought forwards even if they can't prove anything. You very seldom prove anything in WW but you can build up cases for a pile of indirect evidence.

Originally Posted by Lommy

I don't have anything against you suspecting me. I don't even have anything against you doing it rather forcefully or even on weak grounds.

You don't? Just look again your second post of toDay! To me your reaction looks just like "Oh my god he's saying something that doesn't rub me right! Attaaack!" And it doesn't help you that you try to downplay my thoughts on you as "preaching". That's cheap rhetorics and more a wolfy reaction than an innocent one.

I still haven't heard your answer to the initial suspicion that your first post looks wolvish. In it you manage to say how sad (wolf-apology) and surprised (wolf-cover) you're that Agan is gone. Also you try to make a case of the Lhuna-"bandwagon" and how people fell on that feeble grounds (even the known innocent Agan "fell" for that having her as her second suspicion!) while it is also clear that there were only three votes for Lhuna and thence no mentionable bandwagon (wolvish way of pointing the attention away from you). And then you go on thinking whether the wolves were surprised Lhuna was a seer or just got lucky - which should be a thing the wolves would have thought (wolf-thinking).

I do see your point on feeling bad when someone is suspecting you when you're innocent. But you should know better than that. Putting somene under scrutiny and getting reactions may also make someone look better as you know. We need to get the wolves but we also need to find the ones we can trust - at least a bit.


There is still something I'm not quite easy with Gwath. It's too late now but I hope I can put my finger on it toMorrow.

He and Legate seem just too happy to follow the trends and back up any suspicions raised against vocal players - which would be just what a wolf would like to do.

And just to finish this all. Let's not forget that quieter part of the village. It maybe that we speakers are tearing each other apart once again while the real culprits laugh in the shadows.


*Congrats for your 4000th post Lommy!*

[Kath]

I can't believe we lynched the Seer, and it was Lhuna of all people. The first time we're both free to play a game and we get a grand total of a Day.

Anyway, you have my apologies but I'm going to have to vote within the next hour or so which I know is insanely early but I've got a family outing planned for tomorrow and have absolutely no idea what time we're going to be back.

So, I'm going to do a few things now. I want to see who voted for Lhuna yesterDay and why. Aside from that pine cones thing picked up by someone earlier I saw little in her posts that would indicate Seerdom. Also I will have a look at her posts though I doubt I will get much out of them because on Day 1 no Seer is going to reveal, and generally tries to barely hint. Finally I will look at the few posts we've had so far toDay and try and make up my mind on a vote. The vote will only be based on those who have spoken so far toDay because I think that's only fair.

Lhuna voters:
Nerwen ~ no real reasoning. Says she suspects Lhuna 'ish'. This is such a strangely supported vote that I actually feel it speaks to her innocence.
Gwath ~ votes Lhuna, no reasoning in the post and it's only because he decided not to vote Volo. The original vote is odd, voting for someone who outright said they weren't able to be there. The Lhuna vote seems revenge more than anything for her 'flippant' vote for him.
Nogrod ~ no reasoning in the post, hmm, apparently the vote was to work out Volo's role. Intriguing idea given the little we'd had from either of them and the perfectly sound argument Lhuna had of ignoring Volo til he had time to return and explain. Given her history with Nilp and self-votes I'd have said that made perfect sense.

Lhuna posts:
Hmm, mentions a twist of some kind, as though she has something to say. A role hint maybe or something more.
Has Mith innocent, unsure on Nog, no conclusion on Lommy, unsure on Legate, has Oddwen as innocent. From this I would say she'd dreamt of Mith or Oddwen as they're the only ones she's fully cleared. I'm more inclined to say Mith because she put reasoning behind that one.
Reiterates that Mith and Oddwen are innocent, not helping that debate. Argues with Gwath and thinks he may be a wolf along with Nerwen. Also has Nog high on her suspicion list.
Votes Gwath mostly by a process of elimination. Is it possible that she dreamt of him? She has little forthright reasoning for her vote, yet has gone after him relatively strongly for Day 1.

ToDay:
Nog jumps on Lommy pretty fast. He seems determined to find fault at the moment. I don't like his statement that Lhuna would have made more explicit hints. On Day 1 only a Seer with one wolf in the bag would dare make their role clear, and even then rarely. He's pretty much defending Gwath, though subtly, saying Gwath wouldn't have picked up the cues and suggesting Lhuna didn't dream of him. The fact that my suspicion of Nog is growing makes me wonder about this, but then I'm not sure a Nog-wolf would be so obvious.
Gwath suspects Nog and Volo. He's very against both of them, and to me seems to be doing some of what he accuses Nog.

I haven't looked at Agan because I think she was killed because there seemed a general consensus that she was innocent.

++NOGROD

The more I've read the more I've been leaning that way. There is still doubt in me whether a Nog-wolf would behave quite as jumpily as Nog is, but then maybe he has comrades he doesn't quite know or it's a role he wasn't keen to have. I don't know, but whatever the case he is acting suspiciously.

I think I've cross-posted with some people. Haven't seen anything since Lommy's last post about downplaying.

[Nogrod]

Lhuna seems to have had one dream as Menel's narration for Night1 ends with

Originally Posted by Menel

Any gifteds present who have reason to give me names, please do so.

Now Lhuna says
of Mith: "rather innocent, in my opinion"
of me: "either a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent"
of Lommy: "guilty Finn?" & "Lommy"
of Legate: "bored innocent or wolf setting up an insanity defence"

Then she goes on with the following in one post:
Volo is a lost explorer
Agan is sweet and innocent (or so she claims)
Gwath is a guilty lawyer and is likely to ignore Legate's plea for insanity
Oddwen is crazy and innocent.

Ending all this she goes... "So my pine cones tell me".
Now this last add-on kind of makes me wonder whether someone noticed this already yesterDay or is it just th power of hindsight that makes this one shine through?

But if she wished to hint she was the seer why isn't she more explicit with whom she knows of? Hinting to be the ser and leving others in confusion about her dreams doesn't sound reasonable playing ... so maybe I'm just reading too much into this?

Anyway... I'm not sure about Gwath but I could imagine Nerwen picking that one up...

Anyway. Next time she comes in she has this to say:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

I don't know, Gwath, but I get this honest gut feeling that you could be sucking up to Legate. If you're a wolf, and you know he's innocent, that's quite a strategy. But that's just me.

Mith feels innocent, she's honest enough to be one, and shows she has nothing to fear in saying whatever she feels like saying.

Nerwen's a bit worrying for skirting the issues, however petty, to which she could have contributed. That one post seems to me very safe - which makes it otherwise, if you get me.

Oddie's behaviour feels normal to me, however unsettling her words may be.

Now, as for Volo's self-vote, I'm not sure if Menel has a provision for automatic lynchings for non-voters. But in any case, I strongly advise not to vote for Volo because of his RL constraints. We have greater need to lynch our strong suspects than people who can't participate properly.

Speaking of participating properly, I see we still have a few people who haven't spoken. I hope they have valid reasons for being still absent. I'll be casting my vote (for either Nogrod, Gwath, or Nerwen as of this moment, but that could very well change) possibly within the hour.

She then goes voting for Gwath but her speculation about why to vote him and why not her other main candidates looks more like pure speculation than anything based on knowledge.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

because of my three highest suspects, he's the one I can defend from myself the least. I should give Nerwen more chance to speak, and Nogrod is always argumentative, although his arguments aren't always sound. But that's not to say I'm taking him off my list. It must be Gwath's disadvantage at this point that I've never played with him before, so I don't know if he's being his usual self, but that's the way the cookie crumbles.

Looking at all this would suggest me a few possibilities - in the order of probability I see it.

She dreamt of Mith and found her innocent.
She dreamt of Gwath and found him a wolf.
She dreamt of Agan and found her innocent.
She dreamt of Oddwen and found her innocent.
She reamt of Nerwen and found her a wolf.

I'd say she dreamt of Mith and found her innocent. For that is the most believable explanation I can find - she after all mentioned her twice and both times as an innocent without reservations or second thoughts / possibilties.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Looking at all this would suggest me a few possibilities - in the order of probability I see it.

She dreamt of Mith and found her innocent.
She dreamt of Gwath and found him a wolf.
She dreamt of Agan and found her innocent.
She dreamt of Oddwen and found her innocent.
She reamt of Nerwen and found her a wolf.

I'd say she dreamt of Mith and found her innocent. For that is the most believable explanation I can find - she after all mentioned her twice and both times as an innocent without reservations or second thoughts / possibilties.

Well I would like to relativise and re-evaluate what you said here. First of all and mainly, I really am not sure whether anything can be said from Lhuna's posts. It's even possible she did not hint anyone at all - after all, she might not have counted on dying this early (and she probably didn't). Also, on first sight it seemed to me that if anyone, it might be Oddwen, because she said practically nothing, yet Lhuna mentioned her quite plainly as "innocent":

Originally Posted by Lhuna

As for the others, Volo is a lost explorer, Agan is sweet and innocent (or so she claims), Gwath is a guilty lawyer and is likely to ignore Legate's plea for insanity, and Oddwen is crazy and innocent.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Oddie's behaviour feels normal to me, however unsettling her words may be.

Although now looking at it, it doesn't look much convincing either. But that just proves what I said, I really think we can't say much from her posts.

Last but not least, I do not trust you (but you promoting Mith wouldn't have to mean you are wolves together, that will be rather transparent; rather I'd expect you making it look like that, to support the theory that you two are wolves, while she actually isn't).

EDIT: x.-ed since that Nog's post I've quoted