Werewolf XLVI: Getting Back to Basics

[Nogrod]

Lhuna seems to have had one dream as Menel's narration for Night1 ends with

Originally Posted by Menel

Any gifteds present who have reason to give me names, please do so.

Now Lhuna says
of Mith: "rather innocent, in my opinion"
of me: "either a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent"
of Lommy: "guilty Finn?" & "Lommy"
of Legate: "bored innocent or wolf setting up an insanity defence"

Then she goes on with the following in one post:
Volo is a lost explorer
Agan is sweet and innocent (or so she claims)
Gwath is a guilty lawyer and is likely to ignore Legate's plea for insanity
Oddwen is crazy and innocent.

Ending all this she goes... "So my pine cones tell me".
Now this last add-on kind of makes me wonder whether someone noticed this already yesterDay or is it just th power of hindsight that makes this one shine through?

But if she wished to hint she was the seer why isn't she more explicit with whom she knows of? Hinting to be the ser and leving others in confusion about her dreams doesn't sound reasonable playing ... so maybe I'm just reading too much into this?

Anyway... I'm not sure about Gwath but I could imagine Nerwen picking that one up...

Anyway. Next time she comes in she has this to say:

Originally Posted by Lhuna

I don't know, Gwath, but I get this honest gut feeling that you could be sucking up to Legate. If you're a wolf, and you know he's innocent, that's quite a strategy. But that's just me.

Mith feels innocent, she's honest enough to be one, and shows she has nothing to fear in saying whatever she feels like saying.

Nerwen's a bit worrying for skirting the issues, however petty, to which she could have contributed. That one post seems to me very safe - which makes it otherwise, if you get me.

Oddie's behaviour feels normal to me, however unsettling her words may be.

Now, as for Volo's self-vote, I'm not sure if Menel has a provision for automatic lynchings for non-voters. But in any case, I strongly advise not to vote for Volo because of his RL constraints. We have greater need to lynch our strong suspects than people who can't participate properly.

Speaking of participating properly, I see we still have a few people who haven't spoken. I hope they have valid reasons for being still absent. I'll be casting my vote (for either Nogrod, Gwath, or Nerwen as of this moment, but that could very well change) possibly within the hour.

She then goes voting for Gwath but her speculation about why to vote him and why not her other main candidates looks more like pure speculation than anything based on knowledge.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

because of my three highest suspects, he's the one I can defend from myself the least. I should give Nerwen more chance to speak, and Nogrod is always argumentative, although his arguments aren't always sound. But that's not to say I'm taking him off my list. It must be Gwath's disadvantage at this point that I've never played with him before, so I don't know if he's being his usual self, but that's the way the cookie crumbles.

Looking at all this would suggest me a few possibilities - in the order of probability I see it.

She dreamt of Mith and found her innocent.
She dreamt of Gwath and found him a wolf.
She dreamt of Agan and found her innocent.
She dreamt of Oddwen and found her innocent.
She reamt of Nerwen and found her a wolf.

I'd say she dreamt of Mith and found her innocent. For that is the most believable explanation I can find - she after all mentioned her twice and both times as an innocent without reservations or second thoughts / possibilties.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Looking at all this would suggest me a few possibilities - in the order of probability I see it.

She dreamt of Mith and found her innocent.
She dreamt of Gwath and found him a wolf.
She dreamt of Agan and found her innocent.
She dreamt of Oddwen and found her innocent.
She reamt of Nerwen and found her a wolf.

I'd say she dreamt of Mith and found her innocent. For that is the most believable explanation I can find - she after all mentioned her twice and both times as an innocent without reservations or second thoughts / possibilties.

Well I would like to relativise and re-evaluate what you said here. First of all and mainly, I really am not sure whether anything can be said from Lhuna's posts. It's even possible she did not hint anyone at all - after all, she might not have counted on dying this early (and she probably didn't). Also, on first sight it seemed to me that if anyone, it might be Oddwen, because she said practically nothing, yet Lhuna mentioned her quite plainly as "innocent":

Originally Posted by Lhuna

As for the others, Volo is a lost explorer, Agan is sweet and innocent (or so she claims), Gwath is a guilty lawyer and is likely to ignore Legate's plea for insanity, and Oddwen is crazy and innocent.

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Oddie's behaviour feels normal to me, however unsettling her words may be.

Although now looking at it, it doesn't look much convincing either. But that just proves what I said, I really think we can't say much from her posts.

Last but not least, I do not trust you (but you promoting Mith wouldn't have to mean you are wolves together, that will be rather transparent; rather I'd expect you making it look like that, to support the theory that you two are wolves, while she actually isn't).

EDIT: x.-ed since that Nog's post I've quoted