Werewolf XLVI: Getting Back to Basics

[Nerwen]

Gwathagor and Nogrod, Day 2.

I'm trying to work out how much (if at all) Nogrod's sacrifice of Gwath was planned in advance, as it may shed light on the voting patterns of the unknowns.

Known innocents are in italics, known wolves are underlined, everyone else is in bold.

NOGROD

#88.
Attack Lommy, claiming her first post of the Day is wolvish.

#91.
Analyses Lhuna's posts, decides she dreamt of Mith as innocent.

#93.
Lists Agan's actions.

#100.
Still after Lommy, but mentions other names (Kath, Nerwen, Volo) in passing. Gwath is suspicious, in tandem with Legate.

#122.
Lommy innocent, Volo and Legate suspicious. Nerwen and Gwath have made "slips". (Gwath's slip was identified by Lommy in an earlier post.)

#128.
Volo and Nerwen are suspicious. Gwath is "our best bet".

#131.
"Could be persuaded" to vote Volo.

#132.
Defends self from Legate.

#152.
Corrects Sally about number of votes already cast (two).

#154.

[replying to Mithalwen] You should get that [a diagnosis of monomania] quick before you people make bad decisions...

#169.
Complains that "the whole village is filled with cobblers".
Votes Gwathagor.


GWATHAGOR

#127.
Preliminary post: says hi, needs to read more.

#136.
Lommy, Legate and Nogrod are suspicious. Lommy is less so than the other two.
Oddwen suspicious. Volo OK.

#139.
Defends self against Sally. Calls her "fuzzy".

#147.

It's fun to see everyone getting frantic as DL approaches. Ok, now I really am going to go read the thread again and then vote.

#155.
Votes Legate.

From this it looks as though Nogrod's sacrifice of Gwath was a late decision– in fact Nogrod spent the first part of the day trying to find another victim and switched to Gwath rather suddenly when Lommy found something on him.

Hope this helps.

EDIT: fixed bolding.

EDIT 2: fixed grammar

[Oddwen]

My suspicions in order from most to least:

Sally: Her shenanigans late yesterDay were either very naive, or brilliantly calculated to look so.

Then again...

The more I read over it, the more it looks like Nogrod was using you. But then again maybe that was the plan.

Legate - quite a bit of my bells are raised from the first day with Gwath - plus your seething defenses against Nogrod in the later Day, when Nogrod seemed seethingly defensive from everything anyway seems wonky.

Elf -Warrior - He hasn't contributed much - but when he was around yesterday he was very strange indeed. You could see Nogrod getting more and more desperate, but Elfie's all coolly voting for Nerwen...but then again, if I understand what EW has just said about the cross-posting (it is now late o'clock), it may just be Nogrod trying to cast blame on an innocent..

Kath - I'm not sure. I'm not really seeing anything horribly bad in her posts, and a lot of what others seem to be seeing is "it's either Legate or Kath"-type things...though this bit is weird:

Originally Posted by Kath

First I don't want to vote Nog because I have an automatic reaction of suspicion. Lommy I don't feel is suspicious enough to warrant a vote. Both Gwath and Legate argue themselves in circles about each other as if deliberately trying not to come to a final decision, but Legate does it for other people as well so is more irritating with it. [she votes for Legate]

So...she didn't want to vote for Nogrod because of suspicions, but Legate is okay from a choice between he and Gwath?

Nerwen - probably cleared as I've said earlier - Nogrod was pushing pretty hard for her to be lynched and wasn't for Gwath, so.

Mith - Though the bottom of my list is still pretty high in itself...it's niggling more and more in my mind why she's being passed over quite a bit...


And just because -

Originally Posted by Lommy

Post 241? Ooh, Legate is in the future...

Originally Posted by Post#241 from Nogrod

Although Elf Warrior's sense lit a small light to be sure...

[Nerwen]

I said yesterday that I thought either Nogrod or Legate was a wolf, not both– but now that I've had another look through what Gwath and Nogrod said about Legate on Day 2, I'm starting to wonder again. I mean, the way they kept mentioning him as suspicious, but always in conjunction with known innocents... I've seen that kind of thing before.

On the other hand, he played a fairly active role in getting Nogrod lynched– and I'm pretty sure Nogrod was doing his best to stay alive. Hmmn...

On the whole I think we should lynch Sally, for obvious reasons– but I am a bit worried just because she's so obvious.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

On the whole I think we should lynch Sally, for obvious reasons– but I am a bit worried just because she's so obvious.

Totally wouldn't blame you, after what a fool I was made out to be yesterday. Like I said, I understand that I look furrier than a bearded lady right about now, so I'm just going to do my best to help the village before/if I get killed.

And with that, I should get to bed. I'm honestly very sorry I haven't posted about Elf yet; I need to, but I keep putting it off to do my homework or talk about Doctor Who. (casts an innocent look at Gwath and Emily) The post WILL be up before Day's end, as I've kind of resigned myself to the fact that I'm dying, and like I said I may as well do the ordos some good before I go. Good night all!

[Kath]

So...she didn't want to vote for Nogrod because of suspicions, but Legate is okay from a choice between he and Gwath?

No Oddwen, I didn't want to vote for Nog because in any game I play with him I find him suspicious. The second he starts posting the tone strikes me as wolvish. However, as I know this to be the case, I try not to vote for him Day 1 in order to give my kneejerk reaction time to settle down and actually look for reasons as to why I think him suspicious. Gwath and Legate on the other hand I found suspicious not just as an automatic reaction to their mere presence, and so they were the choices for my vote.

ToDay, I think Legate is still in the running for that vote. His attack on sally looks a little too forced to me. Indeed, if sally were a wolf I sincerely doubt that she would have made that vote that brough Nog and Gwath to a tie. That's incredibly brave forward planning if that was the case, and while I wouldn't put it past her to be that brave, I don't think there would have been time in the last minute voting rush for it to be that well planned. I may have another look at Legate, I ignored him the last couple of Days due to the need for early voting and my own sleepiness. It will have to wait a bit though.

[Mithalwen]

I am here. Still kicking myself for letting up on Nogrod at the last minute - again .. having harped on the same note for 3 days I once again doubted myself ..and failed ot vote for the woluf when it counted. .

I don't have a lot of time now but what I intend to do after work is read through in the light of the knowledge we have gained. Two wolves, a seer, some ordos. We have done well but the very first WW game was won by a lone wolf who had seen his comrades die in Day ! and 2 lynches. We can't relax here

I guess this was the classic 3 wolf and seer game but we can't be certain. If there were another special role, cobbler would be my guess.. or maybe it just seems like there are cobblers here!!

[Oddwen]

Originally Posted by Mith

Still kicking myself for letting up on Nogrod at the last minute - again .. having harped on the same note for 3 days I once again doubted myself ..and failed ot vote for the woluf when it counted.

...and did vote for someone else quite randomly.

Elf Warrior:

Originally Posted by EW

Yellow light:
Kath. I haven't seen much suspicious behaviour, but Kath being a wolf would seem to fit in with Gwath's lycanthropy. That doesn't mean she's a wolf, though.

Well, who wouldn't "fit", anyone would "fit" if you look at it from the right angle.

I just think that the suspicions against Kath are a bit off - her posts look fairly normal to me.

I'm quite convinced that what went on between Sally & Nogrod yesterday was supposed to look too obvious to be obviously obvious - if she's not a wolf, I'm willing to bet she's a cobbler.

Third time's a charm? *crosses fingers*

++SALLY

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Kath

Indeed, if sally were a wolf I sincerely doubt that she would have made that vote that brough Nog and Gwath to a tie. That's incredibly brave forward planning if that was the case, and while I wouldn't put it past her to be that brave, I don't think there would have been time in the last minute voting rush for it to be that well planned.

I don't understand your point, Kath. To whoever Wolf #3 is (I'm not saying it's Sally), it must have been clear by then that Nogrod had decided to sacrifice Gwath– if it is indeed Sally, it would be just a matter of following suit.

EDOT: fixed bolding.