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#1 | |||
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Leaf-clad Lady
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)Sally and Gwath's votes both made me fairly uneasy, though for different reasons. Sally's, like someone said, looked a bit too easy. Gwath's I don't like because voting without stating any reasons for the choice is both unhelpful (if having suspicions about someone, one should at least reason them a bit if he really wants that one lynched) and irritating and never fails to make me suspicious. I read Gwath's posts. Maybe I'm slow but I only just realised that he not only voted without stating a reason but also said Quote:
Other than that, this debate leaves me quite baffled so that's all from me at the moment. I'll let Lommy post now and meanwhile try to gather some more substance. EDIT: x-ed with 1 x Volo
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#2 |
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Wisest of the Noldor
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Oh dear, my poor Grandpa. I hadn't even noticed that "we wolves" thing. But I'd like to point out that an innocent ancestor of Volo's once admitted that it was "possible" he was a wolf. But it's also reasonable of Greenie to point that out. Somebody had to.
Edit: X'd with Niece Aganzir.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#3 | |
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Beloved Shadow
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I'm back! Did you miss me?
Sally, you voted for me! Now how can I get scried multiple times if you go and get me lynched! It was most inconsiderate of you. And aren't you even from the same state as I am? Where's your sense of regional brotherhood? Oh, and as far as deciding who we should try and lynch, the EW or WWs, does it really matter much who we gun for? In my opinion we're just as likely to lynch a WW gunning for the EW as we are if we were actually trying to lynch a WW. It's not like we have any concrete knowledge to work with. On Day 1 in particular we're just taking a blind shot in the dark. Heck, if we'd purposefully try and lynch the Seer we'd probably have just as good a chance of lynching a WW. Here are the lynching odds for today- Ordo- 71% Gifted- 11% WW- 11% Wizard- 7% If everything today and tonight go according to the odds, tomorrow we will have 2 Wizards, 4 WWs, 3 gifteds, and 16 Ordos. So that would make the lynch odds tomorrow- Ordo- 64% WW- 16% Gifted- 12% Wizard- 8% Just something to chew on. And I have been seeing some of you saying that the scenario I outlined earlier was overly pessimistic. All right then. I'll run a different scenario. This time, let us assume that the village and the GW, after Day 1, have 50% success at finding WWs- in other words, in every single Night/Day cycle a WW is either lynched or scried by the GW. If you ask me that would be quite an accomplishment. But let's suppose we actually pull it off. What would that mean for our numbers? (I'm not counting the Wizards in these tallies) Day 2- 19-4 Day 3- 16-4 Day 4- 15-4 Day 5- 12-4 Day 6- 9-4 Day 7- 6-4 Day 8- LOSE So, as we can see, even if we have 50% WW-finding success, by the time we are at Day 5 the village will already have a worse villager-WW ratio than other villages start with. Day 6 we'd be in trouble, Day 7 we'd need a miracle, and Day 8 the game would be over. So, even if we find a WW in every single cycle, we're still probably dead if we haven't found the EW by Day 6. But before that would be very nice. This is the point I'm trying to make on the issue of finding WWs as opposed to finding the EW. If we find the EW early, we probably win. If we don't find the EW, it doesn't matter how many WWs we find, we'll still lose. Quote:
![]() Yes, yes, I do want attention. I'm thinking it will increase my odds of being scried. I did the same thing in the last Dueling Wizard village. It only partly worked though- the GW did indeed scry me, but the EW instead of scrying me elected to send the WWs after me the very same night. I'll never forgive you for that Roa!
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the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. Last edited by the phantom; 06-03-2008 at 12:25 PM. |
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#4 | |
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Beloved Shadow
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Ha ha... throwing the wolf to the lambs... But what does Agan think of Lommy? And what do Rikae and Mac think about each other? And I'd really like to know what Nog thinks about everyone! But he won't tell. I pmed and asked him what all the roles were, but he just said "Silence! Ask again and I'll mod-fire you!"
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the phantom has posted.
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#5 |
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Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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I have missed a lot and have no time to catch up and will miss the deadline by ten minutes tonight. I need to vote now and I shall cast a random vote.
++ Morm mostly random. Based on past experiences with Morm and nothing else. I apoligize, but I will have much more to say Day 2 when things aren't so hectic at work.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#6 | |||||||||||
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Thank you. ![]() Quote:
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And that comment looks plain fishy. Got it? Quote:
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:PQuote:
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On a more serious note, that's what usually happens when one has first been accused of defensiveness. edit: xed since Legate
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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#7 |
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Flame Imperishable
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Right here
Posts: 3,928
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Eonwe continued to run towars the village square. He stopped right in the middle of it, panting. There was silence as he entered. "I came as soon as I heard" he said, when he was faced by looks of surprise.
"Nobody told me until I came back from my lumberjack course" His eyes fell on the poor headless body of Eomer, and that of Nogrod, cloven in two by who knew what. "And who are you," said someone. And Eonwe broke into song: "I'm a lumberjack, and I'm okay, I sleep all night and I work all day." And then Rikae joined in with: "He's a lumberjack, and he's okay, He sleeps all night and he works all day." Eonwe: I cut down trees, I eat my lunch, I go to the nonexistent lavatory. On Wednesdays I go chopping And have buttered lembas and miruvor! Rikae: He cuts down trees, he eats his lunch, He goes to the ..what? On Wednesdays he goes chopping And has buttered lembas and miruvor. He's a lumberjack, and he's okay, He sleeps all night and he works all day Eonwe: I cut down trees, I skip and hunt, I like to press wild symbelmyne. I put on Melian's girdle, And hang around in inns. Rikae: He cuts down trees, he skips and hunts, He likes to press wild symbelmyne. He puts on Melian's girdle And hangs around.... In inns??????? I cut down trees, I jump up high I am not womanly I wish I'd been a girlie just my dear Shas- He ended abruptly, as everyone stared at him strangely. "Thats just what I learned on my "What is a lumberjack, course, I'm sorry" he said defensively. Everyone just nodded in consent, except for a few of the Others. Those of the unknown parentage. The people continued to have their discussion about werewolves, as they probably had since morning, and by now it was late afternoon.
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Welcome to the Barrow Do-owns Forum / Such a lovely place
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#8 | |
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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![]() edit: xed with Legate, Cailín and Durelin
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#9 |
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Beloved Shadow
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Oh, and Legate, just so you know, I am actually a cobbler. It's amazing that you picked it out so quickly. Nog thought it'd be funny to make me one after that last game I modded.
![]() Ah, but I'm off to take my turn watching the sheep. Did you count them this morning? I'm worried that the WWs will take a liking to them. Be back in a bit.
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the phantom has posted.
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#10 |
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Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Whatever you say, phantom, dear.
(Nothing meant by 'dear', Lhuna. )
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#11 |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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I wish to point out that I've been misquoted twice now (due to a nameless possession this was not noted before).
Roa assigns one of Celuien's quotes about teamwork pattern and so on to me. The quote includes the word flux - not even sure what that means. This quote is later also assigned to me by Ka. I actually find this carelessness rather suspicious, but I want to clear up this situation at least. Roa's mistake is a bit strange, but Ka's words about me over faulty evidence is more worrying. Based on events of Day 1 she's right at the top of my suspicion list. |
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#12 | |||||
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Wisest of the Noldor
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Based on my previous arguments, here is a list of people I think are being (deliberately?) unhelpful/diversionary/sinister.
1. The Phantom. ...etc.. etc... starting the whole endless argument that has been going around in circles all Day. 2. Mormegil Quote:
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3.Gwathagor Quote:
And you voted her because...? 4.Brinniel Quote:
5.Celuien Quote:
6.Cailin. Carries out Morm's proposal to guess who the EW would have picked by making a list of wolves, based on personality alone. That's pointless and looks like a possible diversion attempt. 7.Legate? Logical and sensible, but is there a bit of a slippery feel to some of his posts? Nothing I can put my finger on right now, though. There are also a number of other people, eg McCaber, Shasta, who have posted little or nothing and are possibly flying under the radar. Edit: fixed numbering. Edit #2: X'd since The Phantom at #91.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#13 | |
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Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Amongst trees.
Posts: 919
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I just wanted to point something out as I continue to read.
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Someone did mention it, however I forgot to make a note of it. About the GW having her Ranger protect the Wolf>Ordo, and thus the EW not being able/wanting to waste a kill on a possibly protected Lost Wolf. Yet there is no guarantee that the GW will always have a Ranger. I don't see a problem with using the usual method to search for Wolves. Sure the Wolves will most likely be a bit more wary as in all probability they do not know their fellows. However if the EW were to instruct any of them to change their typical playing style, I'm sure it would be picked up on. Some have said it, and I'll just spit it back out. Being either the EW or GW is in all likelihood going to take an amount of commitment, which would most likely not suit someone whom may have larger RL time restraints. I also doubt a newer WW player would want to undergo such a thing. However, I don't believe things can be 100% ruled out of the realm of possibility, purely because there is a large chance of them not being true or occuring. X'd since Cailin's #101.
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But I was clinging to her like a homicidal monkey.
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#14 |
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Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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He's not the cobbler, he's a very naughty boy.
Really, I simply can't stand this statistics business, especially on day one. TP isn't taking into account the abilities of the GW and gifteds to help us rid the village of wolves. Besides, if we are able to hunt down the EW, as my impudent son seems to think (but doesn't mention how), we can hunt down wolves more easily still. Sure, if you find the EW, great - but this kind of talk is demoralizing for the village and, I suspect, nothing but an attempt to start controversy and, of course, get attention. Stop it now, or you'll go to bed without supper! As for what I think of my husband.... I don't instinctively trust him, anyway. He's grasping at straws a bit himself (I always heard the phrase worded that way), but then, it's only day one and maybe that is to be expected. Of course I'm watching him closely. I did think his point about Greenie was good, though. That sort of careful wording and passive approach is classically wolfish (to name just one wolfish behavior that is not related to wolf interactions). Otber thoughts at the moment... Roa, Volo,and Lommy look pretty good to me so far... Legate does seem a bit sneaky and controlled, but then, I'm questioning myself on that since I've thought that before when he was innocent. Aganzir doesn't quite seem her usual self- more excited, more defensive, perhaps, and Sally is also acting rather out of character, as others mentioned. Morm and Mac have both seemed a bit eager to accuse, but then, that isn't entirely out of character for either of them. Alhough I've said that I don't like pessimistic assessments of our wolf hunting abilities on the whole, I do think it's highly unlikely we'll catch a wolf toDay. I certainly don't feel I have enough to go on yet. Perhaps (forgive me, but Nogrod isn't here and someone has to mention it) each of us should, when choosing among our suspects, also think about who is more likely to be discovered later, and who is a potential "submarine"? I don't necessarily mean the quieter or less experienced players, but those who are difficult to judge or easy to overlook. |
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#15 | |||
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Nerwen's posting, especially her post #82 actually looks sensible, and innocentish. However, I can as well imagine her evilly grinning behind this innocent mask. But that's just the tiny bit of feeling. She speaks sense, if nothing else, this far. Quote:
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LG, Volo, eventually Gwath... still those who figure upper on my list. Now even there are their interactions, which are really interesting "in-group", but then, do the Wolves know each other or don't they? And even if they do, would they interact so? And even if they don't know, what would such interaction mean? EDIT: x-ed since Nerwen's last post
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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I am not sure what Lommy sees on (bah!) Agan... though she seems reasonable in for example her reply to phantom that he should not trust her (this I would expect of her... although thinking of it, she would probably do it in any case), however what I would not expect of her...
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EDIT: x-ed since Cailín
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories Last edited by Legate of Amon Lanc; 06-03-2008 at 01:10 PM. |
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#17 |
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Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Oh, Aganzir - the clutching was a joke (if the 'Thanks' was not sarcastic...
). I don't know which one it 'is', if there it's defined anywhere, not that it even matters. I just remember a Saucepan-Nogrod-me-TGWBS argument fiasco, and then it was clutching, I believe...maybe. I think I might have been accused of straw-clutching. I remember something like "is that the sound of straws being clutched?" or something. Amusing. That was insane.Ah, yeah...I remember the frustration of Sauce's game...I had a cool role and everything! (And sorry I didn't remember...was frustrated I died on Night 1 and don't think I really followed the game, hah.) Hmm, your post was too nice to me. Hmm. I agree with you on Cailin. Nerwen, a bit more's been said than what you summarize...we got beyond the Wolves and EW topic for the most part. Give us more credit. Also, your entire first post is basically repeating what other's have said to criticize/disagree with it or to put it into a list without really giving anything new. Your second post gives a little. But I mean...discussion can be repetitive and still be productive, right? And you can have a lot of just agreeing and disagreeing and it still be interesting...maybe who people choose to agree and disagree with can mean something. Why are we bothering to look for new things under the sun, anyway? What game number is this? *pats the Ka* Oh, and yeah, my the phantom wanting attention comment was supposed to mean he always wants attention, though it was worded strangely. I was in rant-mode, so I was just typing whatever came out of my head. Probably do that too much. I've been practically ignoring (definitely 'ignoring' them in my posts) lots of people but dang there are a lot of people in this game...gotta step back maybe. See if Legate or Lommy are looking creepy. And Rikae needs to post more, I miss her and finding her suspicious. Edit: Whoa, crossed with tp onwards. |
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#18 | |
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Wisest of the Noldor
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Quote:
Edit: X'd with Cailín.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#19 |
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The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Quick check-in over break. Hmmmm, it seems one of the biggest points of discussion is catching the EW vs. catching the wolves. May I point out that if the EW is killed, so is the GW, and then we lose (essentially, and assuming she has a full gifted roster) a seer. Not that I'm saying we let the EW sit around and scry her brains out, but I think it'll be a lot easier to find the EW in a couple days (sooner, if possible, but I don't think that's likely) and concentrate on finding wolves for now, as it'll be easier to find the EW once we see her style of wolf-picking.
Hehe, Phantom, don't you know that it is I who will be multi-scried? ![]() Bah. I wish I had more time to look at things, but I'm running late. Best of luck to all at the end of the day; I may be able to stop in around DL, but I highly, HIGHLY doubt it. Til then.... P.S. Durelin, if you want I can totally edit the chart. It was just really late when i wrote down all the names and I kept seeing "Dure" as "Durie" and it stuck. Happy to change it though if you'd wish. ![]() EDIT: x'd with Nerwen's last and Cailin
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#20 | |
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Silver in My Silent Heart
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It's taking me ages with my throughout notes, because I'm procrastinating quite a major deal of the time. So far nothing worth mentioning. edit: Xd with all since #110. Last edited by Volo; 06-03-2008 at 01:35 PM. |
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#21 | ||
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Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Speaking of pointless, eh? Hmm, maybe a little much, Cailin. I doubt Nerwen made her lists because she thought we were all fools. Not all of us are. But, as I said...what is there left to talk about, tactics-wise and all that rot, in game 47... Ooh, I'm repeating myself now...how Wolfish is that? ![]() Edit: Crossed with Sally onwards. Oh dear, sorry sally, the Durie thing was totally a joke. I just found it amusing because no one's ever attached 'ie', it's always been 'y' for some reason, so I felt I had to comment somehow. And I am an evil twin and feeling particularly...snarky or something toDay. Is snarky a word outside of my head? Quote:
(I really botched that 'clutching' thing. Not even a smilie! Was really even trying to admit that, yeah, I was grasping/clutching, but I prefer 'clutching'...joking about my preference... There. Totally killed it.)
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