Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Nogrod]

Old nanny’s words were sadly wrong for the fresh dreams didn’t bring relivement but only more pain. The people in her dream had first killed one of the nightly killers and were in bloodthirsty trance of some kind ready to kill everything they thought evil. Enraged by that the nightly killers had killed yet more villagers an it would go on and on. She was sure of it.

If she didn’t stop it.

Edelfried woke up shivering. Her heart felt bruised and beaten. It was as well physical pain. She felt she would throw up at any minute.

There was only one thing she could do. She should visit aunt Clennan.

She wasn’t actually allowed outside the castle on her own but this wasn’t the first time she managed to get there. There were a few good ways to do it and the easiest was when old Bellengaard was on duty at the gate. He would just let her go if she talked nicely and smiled: and promised to get him some honeycakes and a small bottle of sage- flavoured spirit from her aunt. That had always worked and it did so this morning as well.


“Oh! little miss Edelfried it is! How nice to see you for a long time!” Aunt Clennan came rushing through her messy and dimly lit room to greet the girl.

“Now what is it my dear? You look so pale and frightened! Now sit down and tell your auntie all that shadows your pure mind!” While speaking she had already pulled a chair for Edelfried, set her down and sat herself next to her. “Now, what is it?”

Edelfried told her all. It took some time but finally she got it done. Her aunt listened patiently although Edelfried could see her eyebrows wrinkling every once in a while. Her ever-familiar smile had died out already in the beginning and now she looked solemn and thoughtful. Edelfried’s eyes were nailed on her but the silence lasted for a while. Then aunt Clennan finally seemed to come back to the here and now and stroke her hair in saddened empathy.

“I would never had wished you to get this gift my little…” she whispered silently. “Your life will change now. I can be of help and show the door but you must walk the path yourself.”

“What is it aunt Clennan?” Edelfried asked now totally horrified. The tone of the voice of her aunt had made her even more anguished.

“It’s a long story… but sadly you will have to hear it.”


*~*


Macalaure was sitting, leaning to a house and ready for everything. He had a job to do and no werewolf would attack his protégé this Night. But he was weary at the same time being himself the target tonight.

He was watching at his blade when he finally heard the oncoming creeping steps. There they come then… I’ll sell my blood with a price… and they won’t enter this house if it’s up to me.

The shapes of the four werewolves emerged from the darkness coming slowly towards him. Macalaure stood up and pointed his blade at them.

“This is the ranger’s blade enchanted by the Good Wizard! You shall not pass!”

He took a step towards the four shadowy creatures and swang his blade in the air. “Dare to even try!” He shouted at them hoping people would hear it.

“We have no business inside cider-maker. We’ve come to get you…” the biggest werewolf said in a slow voice. “Go get him!” he said pointing at the two werewolves at it’s left.

They leaped on Macalaure but he stood firm parrying left and right and dealing a blow to his attackers every now and then. There was blood all over as Mac had been hit a few times quite badly but he had also managed to deal a blow or two in as well.

“Hey, this is a tough one. Just give us a hand!” The other werewolf cursed between the strokes.

“Oh you amateurs… Let’s go kill him. We have another job to do this Night as well and everyone’s waking up to this noise.” the biggest one drowned and jumped in with the fourth one.

It was soon over then. The werewolves tore him into pieces. The first attackers were so mad because of their wounds and their loss of face that they could have continued slicing him into ever smaller pieces if the biggest one hadn’t stopped them.

“Now let’s get the girl, fast!” he hissed and they disappeared to the night.



The village had heard the fight but they stayed indoors until the morning broke for fear of going outside were the werewolves roamed. But as soon as the first rays of sun came forwards they rushed out to see what had happened.

“Nooooo!” cried Di, “Daad!” she rushed to the pile of pieces of human flesh and organs where her father’s sword lied.

“It can’t be!” cried Rikae. “My husband! My love!”

The phantom looked around in ever growing anger and finally spotted a face he was looking for. “If you’re behind this aunt Roa I will deal with you personally!”

But all that was intervened with another cry. It was Lalaith.

“Who could have done this to a little ageless girlie barely of any age? Where is the justice? Why?”

The villagers rushed towards her lamentations only to find The Ka pierced with a spear by the front door of Lalaith’s house. The spear had been stuck to the ground and The Ka still held her favourite doll in her hand.



*~*

Alive:

+ A Little Green, a fortune-teller - folklorist - herb-grower - unofficial therapist, advisor and midwife, most presumably a witch, the gammer (the eccentric mother of Lommy & Mac)
+ Shastanis Althreduin, astrologer/fortune teller, gaffer (Greenie's husband, father of Lommy & Mac)
+ Isabellkaya, a gammer who loves asparagus and throwing knives (Shasta's sister)

+ Thinlómien, a bird tamer, adult (married to Nilp, Macalaure's sister)
+ Nilpaurion Felagund, a house-bound sandwich-maker, adult (married to Lommy)
+ Eönwë, Rikae's unofficial helper-person, 22 (their son)
+ Kath, tavern owner, 20 (their daughter, Brinn's life partner)
+ Satansaloser 2005, Lommy's assistant, 17 (their daughter)

+ Rikae, a lumberjack, adult (married to Macalaure, Roa's sister)
+ the phantom, sheep herder with Legate, 21 (their adopted son, Di's brother)
+ Diamond 18, dissolute, 11 (phantom's pre-teen littlesister)

+ Cailín, guinea pig breeder, adult (Nilp's sister)
+ Lhunardawen, healer's apprentice, 20 (Cailín's daughter, good twin of Durelin)
+ Durelin, poisoner 20 (Lhuna's evil twin, daughter of Cailín)



+ Roa_Aoife, school teacher, adult (mother of Legate, Brinn and Kit, wife of Nogrod, sister of Rikae)
+ Brinniel, Greenie's apprentice, 21 (Legate's sister and Kitanna's twin sister, Kath's life partner)
+ Legate of Amon Lanc, sheep herder with tp, 19 (brother of Brinn & Kit, Sally's boyfriend, Agan's ex-bf)

+ Lalaith, chocolate maker, adult (sister of Nerwen, mother of Aganzir, Volo's daughter)

+ Mormegil, adult (son of Volo, husband of Celuien, father of Gwath and McCaber)
+ Celuien, a candle maker, adult (wife of morm, mother of Gwath and McCaber)
+ Gwathagor, a highwayman, 20 (McCaber's big brother)
+ McCaber, a henchman, 18 (Gwath's little brother, dates Aganzir)


The dead:
Eomer of the Rohirrim, adult (Cailín's husband, Lhuna's and Dury's father); An innocent beheaded by the werewolves on Night1
Nogrod, the judge, adult (Roa's husband, father of Legate, Brinn and Kit); An innocent torn in two by werewolves on Night1
Nerwen, the healer, adult (sister of Lalaith, Volo's daughter); An innocent nailed to the oak-tree on Day1.
Volo, the guy who knows everything about staying alive, the gaffer (Father of Nogrod, morm, Nerwen and Lalaith); The seer mutilated and eyes pulled off on Night2.
Kitanna, a tavern wench 21 (Legate's sister and Brinn's twin sister); An innocent ripped into pieces and thrown into the well on Night2.
Aganzir, the little match girl, 15 (Lalaith's daughter, dates McCaber); A werewolf burnt alive on Day2.
Macalaure, apple farmer, adult (married to Rikae, Lommy's brother); The ranger overpowered by four werewolves in a fight and torn to pieces on Night3.
The Ka, a dog whipper (a fatherless and ageless little child of Lalaith); An innocent impaled to a spear her doll in her hand on Night3.



Day3 begins.

The forum is open again.

[satansaloser2005]

Crud crud crud! Mac.... And Ka....wait a sec....Ka? What the devil? *goes to look at Ka's posts, for there's obviously something there*

Oh, and before I go (going to drive home and charge laptop so I can go postal....erm, post happy hehe) I'm going to be the first to post the voting record. Ha!

Roa-->Phantom at 2:02am
Lhuna-->Mac at 5:41am
Nilp-->Cabbie at 9:17am
Gwath-->Lallie at 10:47am
Morm-->Brinn at 2:26pm
Sally-->Cabbie at 4:06pm
Cellie-->Cailin at 4:34pm
Rikae-->Legate at 4:55pm
Shasta-->Legate at 4:58pm
Mac-->Agan at 5:01pm
Kath-->Mac at 5:23pm
Di-->Mac at 5:47pm
Brinn-->Agan at 5:49pm
Durie-->Lommie at 5:50pm
Lommie-->Agan at 5:50pm
Izzy-->Roa at 5:54pm
Phantom-->Agan at 5:55pm
Ka-->Mac at 5:55pm
Cabbie-->Legate at 5:55pm
Greenie-->Phantom at 5:55pm
Agan-->Mac at 5:57pm
Legate-->Agan at 5:58pm
Cailin-->Agan at 6:00pm
No votes: Eon, Lallie

Notes: Times are GMT-5, which puts DL at 6pm my time. I'm too lazy to change the times over today, sorry. As before, innocents and wolves.

Enjoy! See you all in a couple hours or so!

[Thinlómien]

And I was just starting to wonder if THE Ka was a wolf after all...

I'm rather happy to know that Agan was indeed a wolf. Her last words almost convinced me I had been wrong about her... I will look at Day1's now and go with the assumption that wolves knew their fellows and they didn't want to lynch them in order to get an extra kill, so basically, I'm going to have a look at who could have been protecting Agan from the lynch. This might be useless as we can't assume the wolves know one another - actually, if I had to bet, I'd say they don't know one another, or at least didn't know on Day1 - but nevertheless something interesting may turn up. Besides the Ew definitely know qho the wolves are/were, but s/he might just be too sneaky to catch by some trivial thing like that. But anyway, like I said, I'm going to have a look at the voting.

I will also see through Agan's accusations against me some time toDay and comment if there's something that needs clarifying (ie something that is not a downright blantant lie one can easily dismiss), even though she's dead and a wolf. I'd prefer to have those things cleared.

What I will be doing toDay is concentrating on as many people as I can. For good or bad, I mostly thought about Agan and tp yesterDay...


edit: xed with Shasta and Legate

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Roa-->Phantom at 2:02am (tp - 1)
Lhuna-->Mac at 5:41am (tp - 1, Mac - 1)
Nilp-->Cabbie at 9:17am (tp - 1, Mac - 1, Cabbie - 1)
Gwath-->Lallie at 10:47am (tp - 1, Mac - 1, Cabbie - 1, Lal - 1)
Morm-->Brinn at 2:26pm (tp - 1, Mac - 1, Cabbie - 1, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1)
Sally-->Cabbie at 4:06pm (tp - 1, Mac - 1, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1)
Cellie-->Cailin at 4:34pm (tp - 1, Mac - 1, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1)
Rikae-->Legate at 4:55pm (tp - 1, Mac - 1, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 1)
Shasta-->Legate at 4:58pm (tp - 1, Mac - 1, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 2)
Mac-->Agan at 5:01pm (tp - 1, Mac - 1, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 2, Agan - 1)
Kath-->Mac at 5:23pm (tp - 1, Mac - 2, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 2, Agan - 1)
Di-->Mac at 5:47pm (tp - 1, Mac - 3, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 2, Agan - 1)
Brinn-->Agan at 5:49pm (tp - 1, Mac - 3, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 2, Agan - 2)
Durie-->Lommie at 5:50pm (tp - 1, Mac - 3, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 2, Agan - 2, Lommy - 1)
Lommie-->Agan at 5:50pm (tp - 1, Mac - 3, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 2, Agan - 3, Lommy - 1)
Izzy-->Roa at 5:54pm (tp - 1, Mac - 3, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 2, Agan - 3, Lommy - 1, Roa - 1)
Phantom-->Agan at 5:55pm (tp - 1, Mac - 3, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 2, Agan - 4, Lommy - 1, Roa - 1)
Ka-->Mac at 5:55pm (tp - 1, Mac - 4, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 2, Agan - 4, Lommy - 1, Roa - 1)
Cabbie-->Legate at 5:55pm (tp - 1, Mac - 4, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 3, Agan - 4, Lommy - 1, Roa - 1)
Greenie-->Phantom at 5:55pm (tp - 2, Mac - 4, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 3, Agan - 4, Lommy - 1, Roa - 1)
Agan-->Mac at 5:57pm (tp - 2, Mac - 5, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 3, Agan - 4, Lommy - 1, Roa - 1)
**Mac declares Gift at 5:57pm
Legate-->Agan at 5:58pm (tp - 2, Mac - 5, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 3, Agan - 5, Lommy - 1, Roa - 1)
Cailin-->Agan at 6:00pm (tp - 2, Mac - 5, Cabbie - 2, Lal - 1, Brinn - 1, Cailín - 1, Legate - 3, Agan - 6, Lommy - 1, Roa - 1)
No votes: Eon, Lallie (Sally - heavily edited)

There were two fatal bandwaggons yesterDAY: The Agan one and the Mac one. Obviously, the Mac waggon is more suspicious, unless the Wolves were ordered to go after Agan (and yesterDAY would be a good time to do that, since they Dark Side already has 4 Wolves - they can afford to sacrifice one, and replace it the following NIGHT.)

I'll sniff at the Mac bandwaggon first. Akamaru!

Rarf!

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm not sure how unexpected Mac's death was, but Ka? Another "safe" kill? The first close member of my own family is gone now... Mac was my son.

However, the little match girl is also gone. I'd bought matches from her many a time, not knowing the evil that lurked inside her. Of course, I find it hard to believe that someone as close to her as her own swain could have no inkling of her foul nature. I noticed yesterday at the burning that the one comment McCaber made was something about fireworks; hardly the reaction of a heartsick lover. This makes me wonder about you, young henchman; rest assured, I shall have my eye on you today.

[Rikae]

Sally, what do you mean there must be something in THE Ka's posts? That's hardly an obvious conclusion, considering that there was nothing in Volo's or Kitanna's.

If I was a wolf, last night I would be thinking about not killing someone Mac was protecting, above anything else.

Poor Mac... I always hate to see him go. Why on earth does everyone find him suspicious lately when he's good, anyway?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sally, what do you mean there must be something in THE Ka's posts? That's hardly an obvious conclusion, considering that there was nothing in Volo's or Kitanna's.

I was looking at them last night and saw something, but was too tired to write it down. Now let me get to it!


My condolences, by the way, dear.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Shasta

Of course, since we don't know when Aganzir became a wolf, she might have indeed been innocent Day 1.

Of course, that is entirely possible. Though I find it more likely she was a wolf from the beginning...I suspected her from the same reasons as Day 1, and I don't think her behaviour changed at all between the two Days. And would the EW bother scrying her after she got fairly close to getting lynched on Day 1?

[Rikae]

But why would they kill THE Ka for something she said? The seer, after all, was dead and the new seer not made yet until last night. Why would they waste their kill on somebody who might be the Hunter? It doesn't make any sense. Really, I think anybody looking for reasons behind THE Ka's death must be a wolf looking for an easy scapegoat... or at least, rather insulting to the wolves!

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

But why would they kill THE Ka for something she said? The seer, after all, was dead and the new seer not made yet until last night. Why would they waste their kill on somebody who might be the Hunter? It doesn't make any sense. Really, I think anybody looking for reasons behind THE Ka's death must be a wolf looking for an easy scapegoat... or at least, rather insulting to the wolves!

Whaat? That insult-part was utterly incomprehensible to me. Whether Rikae's logic (or sense of humour?) is weird or I'm too tired, I don't know...

Anyway, I think THE Ka was probably killed for either not being probably protected and/or for appearing ordo-like (ie not hunter-like).


edit: xed with Legate who seems as unable to go to sleep as I am to go to check Day1 votes...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ai, vai.

Well, not much of a surprise, is it. The reason for Mac's murder is obvious, he even actually stated he is the Ranger yesterDay, and the Wolves, unlike us, knew that he is not lying (unless he were a Hunter pretending to be a Ranger etc... but that wasn't even probable given the timing and situation he was in when he posted - no time to think of complicated covers - and anyway, it was a Gifted down, the Wolves would've gone after him in any case, I would say). He probably could not protect himself, so he was done for. In fact (to warm up my own soup a little bit), I thought Mac is a Gifted of the way he acted towards me, already on Day 1. Well, if he was it already back then (oh, but he must have been, right? Yes, of course). Anyway... do you notice that the "pile" of the dead (well, a good expression indeed) is getting quite thick? It's the number of kills per night. Now even the Ranger is missing, which means even more...

Now however, what can possibly someone lead to kill a child? Apart from that being really unspeakable, I think this deserves deeper investigation. I shall try to look to it, however not sure how much I can put into it, given the late hour here, I think I am probably rather going to sleep in a short while, so I will probably wait a moment if someone else posts and save the work for the morning when I am more fresh.

EDIT: x-ed with these two

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

In fact (to warm up my own soup a little bit), I thought Mac is a Gifted of the way he acted towards me, already on Day 1.

Figured he knew you were a wolf, did ya?

Originally Posted by Legate

Now even the Ranger is missing, which means even more...

Um, huh? There will be a new ranger toNight. Why are you misleading people, Legate?

[Rikae]

"Warm up my own soup" is an interesting turn of phrase in these circumstances, too. Legate, did you make "Mac & Pork" of my late husband?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Legate, did you make "Mac & Pork" of my late husband?

When my dear brother (may he rest in peace, he was a valiant man) did that revelation of his, my first reaction was that "he's bluffing! he's the EW! ...or is he the GW?" Okay, now I forgot why I'm writing this. Great. Erm... Could the evil guys have thought this way? Could it have affected their choices? I mean, yesterDay someone speculated (I think...?) that the evil team might not want to kill all the gifteds as they can kill the known gifteds after the wizard duel. But if the evil guys thought Mac might be ranger or GW, they might wanted to be more inclined to send the wolves to kill him/check his identity. Hmm... this might actually be rather irrelevant, but it just crossed my mind.

I'm really not getting anything done and my brain's not working properly. Maybe I should go to sleep. It's soon 3am here... but I really would like to see that Day1 voting... maybe I will.

Now I'm wondering if I had any more reason to do this post than express my amusement at Rikae's words...


edit: xed with everybody after Rikae

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

When my dear brother (may he rest in peace, he was a valiant man) did that revelation of his, my first reaction was that "he's bluffing! he's the EW! ...or is he the GW?" Okay, now I forgot why I'm writing this. Great. Erm... Could the evil guys have thought this way? Could it have affected their choices? I mean, yesterDay someone speculated (I think...?) that the evil team might not want to kill all the gifteds as they can kill the known gifteds after the wizard duel. But if the evil guys thought Mac might be ranger or GW, they might wanted to be more inclined to send the wolves to kill him/check his identity. Hmm... this might actually be rather irrelevant, but it just crossed my mind.

I think, with all the power which is left to my brain, that I can see what you are going to. But probably sometimes the simpest choice is the best, so they just, like I said, saw Mac yesterDay, thought "hey, he revealed" (and they thought so rightfully) and said "let's kill him". And that was it.

Now I'm wondering if I had any more reason to do this post than express my amusement at Rikae's words...

I see there was more of us stemming from the same point.

Anyway. Task for those who are awake: try to find out what was up with Ka so that she was killed.

Otherwise, really good night (I hope).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Um, huh? There will be a new ranger toNight. Why are you misleading people, Legate?

I don't know how it works, but I am not quite sure if the Ranger will be immediately up to the task? I mean, when Mac was killed, someone took his place immediately already the same night? Oh yes, probably yes. Anyway, I did not think about it, it's really late here, I will not post anymore and go to sleep. I can't think of much anyway.

Originally Posted by Rikae

"Warm up my own soup" is an interesting turn of phrase in these circumstances, too. Legate, did you make "Mac & Pork" of my late husband?

Blah, blah, blah. I am getting sleepy, which is especially dangerous, as your chattiness irritates me to the point that you may as well drive me to go after you, which is not a thing I like to do, but whatever. For example:

Originally Posted by Rikae

If I was a wolf, last night I would be thinking about not killing someone Mac was protecting, above anything else.

Poor Mac... I always hate to see him go. Why on earth does everyone find him suspicious lately when he's good, anyway?

I can imagine this whole quote being spoken by you wolf, how dare you, your poor Mac, and I even know it from personal experience when you were a wolf with me and you were happy to make a Mac&pork of him yourself and then laugh at him when he was dead (well, we all do that, but whatever). Anyway, it wasn't even - or not directly at least - the problem that he was suspected, but that he was killed. I know it was connected, but still.

Anyway, I see I may be as well starting to talk nonsense, so I better go to sleep now. Good night all.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Legate

I don't know how it works, but I am not quite sure if the Ranger will be immediately up to the task? I mean, when Mac was killed, someone took his place immediately already the same night? Oh yes, probably yes. Anyway, I did not think about it, it's really late here, I will not post anymore and go to sleep. I can't think of much anyway.

No. I think last Night the GW would've scried the new seer. ToNight they will be able to scry a new ranger...and that player will immediately be able to use that new ability. I think that's how it works.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I don't know how it works, but I am not quite sure if the Ranger will be immediately up to the task? I mean, when Mac was killed, someone took his place immediately already the same night? Oh yes, probably yes. Anyway, I did not think about it, it's really late here, I will not post anymore and go to sleep. I can't think of much anyway.

I believe it goes like this - the GW gets to make a new gifted to replace a killed one on the next night (since the wolf kill comes last in the nightly events). Therefore, the new seer would have been made last night (or possibly a new ranger instead), and a new ranger toNight, unless more gifteds get killed, that is. The gifted actions come after the wizard scry, so the new gifteds get to do their stuff on the first night (just like the new wolf last night got to kill.)

Originally Posted by Leggy

Blah, blah, blah. I am getting sleepy, which is especially dangerous, as your chattiness irritates me to the point that you may as well drive me to go after you, which is not a thing I like to do, but whatever.

I'm not scared of you.

Originally Posted by Legomaniac

I can imagine this whole quote being spoken by you wolf, how dare you, your poor Mac, and I even know it from personal experience when you were a wolf with me and you were happy to make a Mac&pork of him yourself and then laugh at him when he was dead (well, we all do that, but whatever). Anyway, it wasn't even - or not directly at least - the problem that he was suspected, but that he was killed. I know it was connected, but still.

Now, I resent that. I didn't laugh at him. Still, WW is WW and I can't make compromises because of my personal feelings about somebody.

[Rikae]

Also, I really would like to know why people are always so quick to lynch Macalaure early on lately. Is it because of his long streak of being a wolf? I don't understand it, because he really did not look the least bit evil to me yesterDay, or the previous time this happened, either (I can't remember which game). And yes, he wouldn't have been revealed as the Ranger and probably wouldn't have been killed if he hadn't almost been lynched first.

[Thinlómien]

My sincerest apologies, but this is a... vote summary, of sorts.

So, Day1 voting in relation to the fact that Aganzir was a Nasty Werewolf:

1. morm -> Brinn
2. sally -> phantom
3. Gwath -> sally
4. Kitanna -> morm
5. Nerwen -> Cailín
6. Roa -> phantom 2
7. Celuien -> Isabell
8. Rikae -> morm 2
9. Isabell -> Roa
10. Shasta -> phantom 3
11. Eönwë -> phantom 4
12. Cailín -> Nerwen
13. Ka -> Celuien
14. Greenie -> Gwath
15. McCaber -> Nerwen 2
16. Mac -> Legate
17. Lalaith -> Nerwen 3
18. Durelin -> Nerwen 4

19. Lommy -> Agan
Here starts the Agan-wagon...

20. Di -> Nerwen 5
She's saving tp, yes, but she's also kind of saving Aganzir who a couple of people have considered voting... Although, the threat of Agan's lynch was quite small still at this phase and it's quite obvious she's saving tp, so I'm really stretching here. But maybe it's still worth pointing out.

21. Volo -> Agan 2
No need to analyse the seer's votes...

22. Brinn -> Aganzir 3
If the wolves wanted not to lynch one another and were aware of one another's identities, Brinn looks very innocent...

23. Legate -> Aganzir 4
...and so does Legate, even though he kept flip-flopping on the subject.

24. Agan -> Nerwen 6
Well...

Did not vote even though was verifiably around: phantom.


Okay, there's little to make out of this. If the wolves knew one another's identities, it's unlikely that Brinn or Legate are wolves. The problem is that that's wrongly phrased: it's unlikely that they were wolves on Day1. So nothing we can trust in here, although this makes me, nevertheless, feel a little better about them. Don't worry, fellow villagers, I'm still able to suspect them.

To my disappointment, no one was really saving Agan, except she herself. So nothing new here either.

The phantom's no vote still puzzles me. You ghostly person, care to explain why did you choose not to vote and who would you have voted, if you had?

All in all, that analysis was pretty worthless. But it made even more convinced there's something wrong with the Nerwen-wagon... mainly looking at Lalaith, McCaber and Durelin here.


edit: xed with everybody after my last post

[Gwathagor]

Hey everyone. I'm going to try to be more involved toDay (as it's now the weekend and I'm not working as much). It's been difficult to form well-developed opinions of everyone because I haven't been around enough during the Day. I apologize.

I have to say, Rikae, you were awful quick there to jump on Legate and cast his remark regarding the Ranger in the most negative light possible. It seems highly unlikely that Legate could accomplish anything by intentionally trying to "mislead" people on such a basic point of DW rules. Anybody who is familiar with the rules would simply view the comment as a mistake and move on.

Crossed with all since Shastanis

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I have to say, Rikae, you were awful quick there to jump on Legate and cast his remark regarding the Ranger in the most negative light possible. It seems highly unlikely that Legate could accomplish anything by intentionally trying to "mislead" people on such a basic point of DW rules. Anybody who is familiar with the rules would simply view the comment as a mistake and move on.

I must agree with this; however, there's something wrong with Legate's last post as well. And now I'm really off to check Day1 voting... almost.


edit: xed with the flood after Gwath's post

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I have to say, Rikae, you were awful quick there to jump on Legate and cast his remark regarding the Ranger in the most negative light possible. It seems highly unlikely that Legate could accomplish anything by intentionally trying to "mislead" people on such a basic point of DW rules. Anybody who is familiar with the rules would simply view the comment as a mistake and move on.

Speaking of that, I don't see what she could base on it. What I said could demoralize people at most, but otherwise, I think it will have no value for determining what I am. Provocation or what?

Anyway, for the third time, and third should be the last, good night.

[Brinniel]

I agree with Rikae. I highly doubt Ka was killed based on something she said. She was probably killed because she was overlooked by most other players.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I agree with Rikae. I highly doubt Ka was killed based on something she said. She was probably killed because she was overlooked by most other players.

I have to agree too. Like I said earlier, I think Ka was a relatively safe kill for the wolves. However, there's nothing to be gained by not looking into her death, either, is there?

[Brinniel]

Okay, those last moments of yesterDay were insane. I was certainly not expecting Mac to come out of nowhere and reveal he was a ranger...and afterwards with all the cross-posting I feared he would actually be lynched. How very lucky it was for that not to happen...and especially the fact that Aganzir indeed turned out to be a wolf. I admit I did gloat a bit as soon as I found out...some of my first Day suspicions have turned out to be wrong in the past...and towards the last minute or so I was starting to doubt myself, but I'm glad to find out that I was right to suspect her.

Mac's death is really no surprise...I think all of us saw it coming once he revealed. As for Ka....it's odd, but when I was thinking about who else might be killed during the Night, she's the first one who popped into my head. She just seemed pretty innocent and overlooked by most...and I think that's why she was killed.

Now onto toDay:

I have to keep reminding myself we can't suspect or disregard someone as a wolf based on connections with Aganzir. It's an old habit that we're used to...but we can still find more wolves without connections. Now if someone wanted to find the EW...now you have a connection. Who would pick Aganzir? And how would that EW act towards her during the Days?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Now if someone wanted to find the EW...now you have a connection. Who would pick Aganzir? And how would that EW act towards her during the Days?

I might think more about this later, but my short answer would be: anyone who has seen her play as a wolf or played with her when she's a wolf. Or someone who wanted to have a shot at the dark with someone s/he had never played with but who had apparently played in several games.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

McCaber, Day 1

#81 - First post of the game. Minor IC entrance. Says Phantom looks innocent, and Sally and Cailin are slightly worrying. Promises to be back later with more info.

#157 - Second post of the game. Says he would rather keep Phantom around, but flip-flops on his opinion, saying "I am keeping him under suspicion". Thinks Aganzir to be innocent. Laments flying under the radar.

#175 - Votes Nerwen. No explanation.

McCaber, Day 2

#452 - Wants Phantom and Roa to sort out their differences by themselves. Doesn't like Legate or Cailin.

#509 - Isn't sure who to vote. Replies to Phantom's wish to vote Gwath, saying that it wouldn't be hard to shoot him past everyone else in the running to be lynched.

#523 - Votes Legate. Again, no explanation.

------------------------------------------

Well, that certainly didn't take long!

All I can say for McCaber is:

1. Flipflopped on his opinion of Phantom between his first and second posts.
2. Believed Aganzir to be innocent.
3. Is suspicious of Cailin throughout, but swaps Sally for Legate for some reason.
4. Doesn't explain his votes.

If ever there was a submarine...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Of course, since we don't know when Aganzir became a wolf, she might have indeed been innocent Day 1.

[McCaber]

Alright, I'm done being the "ultimate submarine." I guess my ex-girlfriend Agan being a werewolf is enough to bring back my focus.

Gwath and phantom - very interesting. Now I have to go back and read Cailin's posts again. I think you guys have something there.

Brin - you may be right about that. Agan and Lommy are shrewd enough to pull that sort of thing off and arrange it so that whoever survived yesterday would be relatively free of charge.

[Lalaith]

Ok, so it’s the weekend, and I’ve got time to be helpful. I’ve been thinking like a EW for the past hour or so, to try to catch wolves. It’s important to try to get one toDay, because if the wolves go up to five, it’s going to be hard to catch them all before they kill us.

Night one: three wolves, of which I am pretty sure Aganzir was one. (I don’t think she would have been scried because she was too close to being lynched both days) the two remaining wolves are what I refer to in the analysis as ‘original wolves.’
Night two: Wolf 3: we are looking for someone posting as innocent on Day One and as a wolf yesterDay and toDay.
Night three: Wolf 4 who is posting as a wolf for the first time toDay.

here’s the analysis. I include myself for the sake of fairness. My assessments of who would be an unlikely wizard are based on various things: RL situation (busy-ness), their WW experience/profile. It is of course not infallible.

Little Green, Not sure here. Clearly smart, but never played with her before so don’t know her WW profile.
Shastanis Althreduin, Not a particularly likely wizard so not a particularly likely scry, and feels quite innocent today.
Isabellkaya, could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard
Thinlómien, likely wizard, thus likely scry. As I said before, feeling quite worried about her even before this analysis. And what her interaction with Aganzir reminds me of is the Roa/Valier thing last DW, when Valier went after Roa and continued to do so after she was guilty. Perhaps Lommy has been scried, and told to keep going after Aganzir.
Nilpaurion Felagund, confusion over start means unlikely wizard, thus unlikely scry. Could be original wolf
Eönwë, could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard
Kath, I really don’t know about Kath – I never do. The ultimate submarine girl. I’d have wanted her for an original wolf if I was a EW, that’s for sure.
Satansaloser 2005 , could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard (too busy)
Rikae, likely wizard, and very likely scry. Has slipped under radar
the phantom, likely wizard candidate, but very unlikely scry either night – too close to getting lynched
Diamond 18, a likely scry. However, she’s being very helpful today, so I’m inclined to think she’s not evil.
Cailín, I still think that she was innocent on the first day, but I think that although she’s currently protesting busy-ness, she’d definitely be seen as a potential wizard and so a very likely scry
Lhunardawen, Possible wizard, possible scry. But she feels quite innocent right now.
Durelin, She’s felt less guilty to me than she did last time I played with her (when I correctly guessed she was a wolf) but she could have been scried last night.
Roa_Aoife, Now, this is a puzzle. Unlike phantom, she hasn’t been a likely lynch candidate, so she could be someone a wizard would want to scry. Would she be a wizard twice in a row? If she’s innocent, why is she still alive?
Brinniel, likely scry – particularly for Night 3. but again, she’s been helpful all through the game and still seems helpful today, so I’m inclined to think her innocent.
Legate of Amon Lanc, likely wizard candidate, but unlikely scry - too many votes on Day 2 to be Night 3 wolf
Lalaith could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard
Mormegil, normally I’d say a likely scry because likely wizard, but a wizard Morm would surely be more active so I’m not sure...
Celuien, could be ‘original’ wolf, but unlikely scry as not likely wizard
Gwathagor, Not sure here. Never played with him before so don’t know his WW profile. But I think his analysis of Cailin today is interesting and knowing her status would provide more info on Gwath.
McCaber, could be ‘original’ wolf, (in fact I suspect him of being so) but unlikely scry as not likely wizard.

So the upshot of this analysis is that there are a whole heap of people who could be original wolves. But if we focus on the new wolves, it gets easier.

I conclude that Cailin, Lommy, Rikae, Roa, Durelin are the most likely candidates for wolves 3 & 4. Little Green is also a possibility.

[Lalaith]

One other thing:

There were two fatal bandwaggons yesterDAY: The Agan one and the Mac one. Obviously, the Mac waggon is more suspicious, unless the Wolves were ordered to go after Agan (and yesterDAY would be a good time to do that, since they Dark Side already has 4 Wolves - they can afford to sacrifice one, and replace it the following NIGHT.)

Not sure about this, Nilp. Why would the EW sacrifice a wolf by ordering her wolves to go after her? She can’t guarantee that the villagers would be thrown off the scent re voting patterns, because most of us are assuming that the wolves don’t know each other’s identities anyway. They don’t need to yet, and they’re going to know about each other once the EW has gone.
It’s quite possible on the other hand that the EW herself might vote for a wolf to hide her own identity. Its my belief that she she’s hiding her own identity from her wolves – and she’s bound to have some wolves that are likely to be scried by the GW.

[Lalaith]

Joining the ranks of the triple posters....
the reason I spent so much time on this, is because the 'who was wolved when' method worked for me before - eventually, I managed to spot most of the wolves in the last DW game.
Not that I was listened to...sigh....
Di and Eomer will know what I'm talking about....

[Rikae]

äääääääääääääääööööööööööööööööööööööööööö
Downloaded a program to do that even on my American keyboard.

Lalaith said I'm a very likely scry, and I agree. I'm sure the people who matter know what I am by now.I really am not this great player everybody thinks I am, and the fact that everybody thinks so makes me more prominent than I rightly should be. I would not give a role to me - you don't get the skill to match the hype - but I don't doubt I've been scried.

What else can I say? Oh, well, I'm not feeling any better about Legate. I had the feeling he was trying to impersonate a gifted the other day, for what it's worth.

Nilp said something about a "smart EW", but from what's been happenign so far, I daresay that is not the type of EW we have. Hear that, EW? I think you're dumb!

[Cailín]

Lalaith, I think you over-estimate the powers of Roa, great though they may be. I'm not exactly startled she's still alive. Having said that, the thought did come to me today at lunch ''Fit aboot Roa?''

I'll have a look at her later. Busy now. Also want to get a feel on players I haven't yet considered, mostly because they've been too quite. Morm, Nilp, etc.