Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Formendacil]

Durelin's death does not make things any easier, that's for sure, though presumably her suspicions give us more to go on than most dead people's, as she had some actual knowledge and wasn't out to mislead the village--though if she attempted to mislead the wolves, we'll have to be careful with our weeding.

I'm inclined to agree with the theory that Kitanna is most likely innocent. Durelin suspected her on Day 1, and she would thus have been the most obvious candidate for a dream that night. Though not conclusive on that evidence, the ensuing turn-around strengthens considerably the probability that Durelin found her innocent.

Together with our self-declared ranger, who although definitely not conclusively innocent has a case that is close enough to certain that I'm willing to take the leap on it. If Eomer is not the real hunter, then we either have a very quiet and cunning who bides his/her time, or else we have a hunter who posts only near the middle of the day. Either/both are possible, but I'm inclined not to think such about either.

As another random thought... Mith's near brush with death yesterday should not absolve her of lupinity. All too often, I think in these games, the runner-up in a voting race can slip back under the radar the next day, completely ignored.

I'm also still suspicious of Nogrod, and the more so as we keep cutting down innocents, but I have nothing to back this up, except Durelin's inclusion of him on her suspicion list--albeit at the very end, which suggests she did not dream about him at all, although I suppose there's the faint chance than when she listed them "in order of suspicion" that she put the most suspicious last... but I'm really not confident in that possibility.

[Kitanna]

So, I have to return to work tomorrow and may make it home before deadline, but that would leave me no time to read the posts I had missed, so once again I'll be voting early.

Durelins' first post yesterday included this list:

I want to look at:
Kitanna
Eonwe
Mith
Ka

Later she added more names:

Anyway, my new handy-dandy list of the others (I hope all), in no particular order:
Eomer
Nilp
Shasta
Mith
Sally
Nogrod
Eonwe
Ka
Formendacil

This next list covers a much greater range (obviously).

She's seem skeptical of Mith and her involvement with Nerwen, saying Mith had picked up on one of Nogrod's theories. But she ends the post with

Speaking of which...based on the wolf kills, I'd say we must have a Nogwolf...

Of course this could have been speculation on Durelin's part based on past experiences.
Her next post shortens the list:

Shasta
Mith
Sally
Eomer
Nogrod

In all three of Durelin's lists Mith is the only constant.

But I have some theories I have been milling over in regards to Durelin's death and her activities chiefly yesterday.

1) She dreamt of Mith, confirmed her hacker behavior and voted for her.
2) She dreamt of Shasta, confirmed hacker behavior, but like my Nogrod theory (see below) didn't want to draw attention. But this doesn't make any sense with her vote for Mith.
3) She had plans to dream of Mith or Shasta and voted for the one she was planning to dream of, thus making a Mithwolf (Shastawolf) and partners semi-nervous.
4) She dreamt of Nogrod and found him guilty of hackery, but didn't want to throw a lot of suspicion his way in fear of drawing hacker attention. This again does not account for her Mith vote except that, again, she didn't want to draw attention to herself.
5) Aside from one Nogwolf comment which may well have been in jest, perhaps Durelin didn't dream of a wolf and this was just what she put together.

Theories 2 and 5 (and to a degree 4) are the most unlikely, but given the fact we don't have anything definite in regards to the dreams I suppose anything is possible. It's likely that 1 may be correct or even 3. Durelin either dreamt or wanted to dream about Mith and this made a Mithwolf and partners worried, thus causing the death of Durelin. Since Mith was a constant in Durelin's list yesterday I am inclined to believe theory 1 is correct.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

A thousand apologies cousin Nilp. Rest assured I punished myself by climbing to the top of the highest tree in the land, sitting there for two nights in the driving wind and rain, haunted by the memory of your innocent voice.

Well, it's true I probably didn't have to reveal, but let me make it more clear. Three people at the end of the day were all voicing some suspicion of me (Nogord, Form and Boro). I really didn't want to be lynched because (and the Nilp vote proves it) my intuitions have not yet proved to be competent. I'd feel horrid if I took an innocent down with me (in this game, where the rules are so kind to the Hunter) so that's why I just made sure.

If Shasta is not a wolf then surely the wolves would have wanted to kill me while I so strongly suspected Shasta. The only reason they would have not to kill me then would have been if Durelin was obviously the Seer. Take Durelin's suspicions at face-value, and if they don't get us anywhere Shasta is definitely a wolf. Of course, being that Durelin had Shasta as a top suspect, we probably have very strong leads either way.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

A thousand apologies cousin Nilp. Rest assured I punished myself by climbing to the top of the highest tree in the land, sitting there for two nights in the driving wind and rain, haunted by the memory of your innocent voice.

Well, it's true I probably didn't have to reveal, but let me make it more clear. Three people at the end of the day were all voicing some suspicion of me (Nogord, Form and Boro). I really didn't want to be lynched because (and the Nilp vote proves it) my intuitions have not yet proved to be competent. I'd feel horrid if I took an innocent down with me (in this game, where the rules are so kind to the Hunter) so that's why I just made sure.

If Shasta is not a wolf then surely the wolves would have wanted to kill me while I so strongly suspected Shasta. The only reason they would have not to kill me then would have been if Durelin was obviously the Seer. Take Durelin's suspicions at face-value, and if they don't get us anywhere Shasta is definitely a wolf. Of course, being that Durelin had Shasta as a top suspect, we probably have very strong leads either way.

Prepare to spend two more nights up in a very tall tree, then, Eomer my friend.

I do wonder, however. Given that you are the Hunter, and given that you did very strongly suspect me near the end of yesterday (a valid assumption would be that you were hunting me that night), why did the wolves not attack you while you were focused on someone who was not a wolf? It seems to me it would have been the perfect time to get rid of you.

Of course I realize that the above takes into account that I am innocent. Well, of course it does, I'm the only person I'm sure is innocent.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

why did the wolves not attack you while you were focused on someone who was not a wolf? It seems to me it would have been the perfect time to get rid of you.

Why indeed?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Why indeed?

....

I'm afraid I still don't understand you.

[Kitanna]

It's time for me to vote. Given what we can gather from Durelin and her death over Eomer's last night I think the hackers guessed she may she the seer. She never came outright with her suspicions, but she hinted in certain directions. Given her suspicions and her voting I'd say she either dreamt of Mith or Nogrod (possibly both) as a hacker. That would give them cause to kill her.

Originally Posted by Eomer

If Shasta is not a wolf then surely the wolves would have wanted to kill me while I so strongly suspected Shasta. The only reason they would have not to kill me then would have been if Durelin was obviously the Seer. Take Durelin's suspicions at face-value, and if they don't get us anywhere Shasta is definitely a wolf. Of course, being that Durelin had Shasta as a top suspect, we probably have very strong leads either way.

This points toward Shasta as a wolf as well. Since why would the hackers want to attack a hunter who will drag down one of their own? But I will save this for another day.

++ Mith

Based on Durelin's lists and vote from yesterday chances look good she had a dream involving an evil Mith.

[Boromir88]

Shasta is reminding me of when I was the seer, wolf-Nogrod kills me and then steps in and twists what I said to convince everyone I dreamed he was innocent. Only, in this case Shasta is pushing for Kitanna's innocent. I've felt Kit has looked pretty innocent, but it always raises my brow when someone steps in to assure us who the seer dreams of, once the seer has been killed. (You can thank Nogrod for that).

Here are some things I do know. Durelin's been the seer before, and from past experience she likes to spend her Night 1 dream on a high-profile player. Someone who will probably be around for a while, talk a lot, and influence the village....someone like moi (and before that gets twisted - No, I'm not saying I'm innocent and Durelin dreamed of me).

Also, Durelin will leave clues for us to follow, knowing that any day she could be found by the wolves. So, I would guess she mentioned the person she dreamed of on Night 1 during the Day. The tricky part is finding the real clues, and whose identity she is revealing.

Eomer amuses me. He feels frighteningly familiar... Boro amuses me. A lot. There's something about Formendacil's attitude I like. Kitanna is boring, and her vote is even more boring. The Sixth Wizard amuses me. Nogrod's role is just too Nogrod. I want to see how long Nilp keeps his role up. Elf-warrior's first post amuses me.~Durelin, Day 1, post 60

Traditionally Durelin spends her first dream on a high-profile player and several of those players are named here. Eomer, The Sixth, EW, and myself all amuse her. We're all lumped together under "amusing her," so I doubt she dreamed (On Night 1) of any of us.

Now she says different things about Form, Nogrod, and Kitanna. She ends up voting for Kitanna, so I think that eliminates Kit. She mentions Nogrod's role (wannabe moderator) just fits Nogrod too perfectly, there's no feeling or statement of innocence/guilt, it's just a neutral statement. But, with Form she says there's just something about his attitude she likes. Is that our clue to her Night 1 dream?

I would say Form fits the type of player Durelin would dream about early on. Also, I would imagine each day she would leave us some hint as to who she voted for. She only had 3 posts on Day 1...her first post was completely RPG IC, there are no people mentioned, and so if there is a clue it's a cryptic one. That is something I will not be able to uncover. Her last post she votes for Kit on the grounds of stirring up trouble against Nerwen, and Durelin felt Nerwen was an easy Day 1 wolf lynch. On Night 1 at least she didn't dream of Kit or Nerwen.

Thus is it her 2nd post on the Day where she gives us the hint? She lumps several people together, makes a neutral statement about Nogrod, but with Form there's just something about him she likes.

As for her other dreams, Durelin (like any seer) would follow her suspicions, or dream of someone she doesn't know about. She missed Day 2 entirely, so on Day 3, there could be several clues to her dreams. Based on what she said, I have a feeling she had not dreamed of a wolf yet:

I want to look at:
Kitanna
Eonwe
Mith
Ka~Durelin, Day 3, post 252

I agree with Nogrod (and why I'm wary about Shasta's analysis), is why would Durelin say she wants to look at Kitanna if she dreamed of Kitanna and found her innocent?

Also, Nogrod and Boro haven't been getting nearly enough attention. But really, I feel good about Nogrod's vote, because I like sticking to principles. And I liked Boro's attitude on Day 1 anyway. Day 2 I need to look at...obviously.

Here she mentions the two loud-mouths, but I doubt she's dreamed of either of us. First off she says we have not been getting enough attention. Secondly her reason for liking Nogrod is very concrete (his vote), and for me, she is unsure. Also later on she would go on to say about Nogrod:

It just seems so right for Nogrod to be a wolf right now.~Day 3, post 298

I am going to assume for now that Rikae, Kitanna, Aganzir, and Boro are innocent, because they were at least sorta fairly consistently after Nerwen~Durelin, Day 3, post 295

Here are four people she's assuming are innocent. And she is assuming for now, another reason I don't buy the supposed fact that Durelin dreamed of Kitanna.

Now this is interesting:

Too bad Shasta and Eomer can't just duel and get a few things out of the way.~Durelin, Day 3, post 309

(bold - my emphasis)
When the seer dreams of another gifted, does the seer find out or is it just " ____ is innocent." I feel pretty embarassed because I've been the seer a few times and right now am having a total mind blank to whether the seer finds out the role, or just guilt/innocence.

Because then there is this from Durelin after Eomer reveals:

*sigh* Yes, yes, we figured by now you were someone important, the way you were acting...

Does Durelin sigh because one of our gifted had to reveal? The hunter is often times more dangerous when known then when unknown. Or does Durelin also sigh because she dreamed of Eomer, and thus found out he was the hunter...Hence why she leaves the "dueling" clue in post 309.

This doesn't look good for Shasta, but something I'm unsure about is whether Durelin dreamed of a wolf, because:

Well it took me absolutely forever to go back and read through things. And I am extremely clueless.~Day 3, post 295

Kitanna's analysis could be correct though, that she was onto at least one wolf, and the wolves wanted to silence her. This doesn't make Shasta or Mith look good.

I've probably cross posted with several of people, because this took a lot of time, so I'll just say it now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

....

I'm afraid I still don't understand you.

It wasn't the perfect time; in fact, it was a very bad time for you to attack me last night Shasta. And you knew it, you... diabolical wolf you!!! String him up!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nog

or then Form but somehow I'm feeling he's not a wolf.

That's funny because I, on the other hand, have an inexplicable feeling that he is a wolf.

Kitanna kept screaming wolf to me on day 1, and pretty much also later. However, the way she behaved made me think she might be the seer who hadn't dreamed of a wolf yet and tried to make it clear. Her vote post was forced, on day 2 she said she was even more confident about Nerwen, she keeps phrasing her posts in a seerish way &c &c.
Therefore I tried not to really suspect nor defend her - rather observe a wolf without accusing for a while than cause a gifted to have to reveal or be killed - but now with Dury dead she cannot be the seer.
She looks like she has something to hide, and she also looks like she was deliberately trying to appear as the seer.
Durelin might have dreamed of her and found her innocent, but I wanted to bring this up anyway.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Later she added more names:
QUOTE]Anyway, my new handy-dandy list of the others (I hope all), in no particular order:
Eomer
Nilp
Shasta
Mith
Sally
Nogrod
Eonwe
Ka
Formendacil

[/QUOTE]
If I remember correctly, this was just a list of people with no certain kind of interaction with Nerwen?

Originally Posted by Shasta

I do wonder, however. Given that you are the Hunter, and given that you did very strongly suspect me near the end of yesterday (a valid assumption would be that you were hunting me that night), why did the wolves not attack you while you were focused on someone who was not a wolf? It seems to me it would have been the perfect time to get rid of you.

This post makes me a bit uncomfortable. As if Shasta was pretending to be very innocent by bringing this up himself before anyone else does it.
Though the hunter isn't always perfectly honest about his (top) suspects, so the wolves might have avoided attacking Eomer also if Shasta is innocent, for they couldn't have known if he was hunting a wolf he was suspecting "just a little".

Some thoughts about day 3.

I trust Eomer's claim. He and Shasta's little quarrel doesn't look staged, and I find also Shasta probably innocent.

Mith is more likely a wolf than Nogrod.

I don't know what to think of Nerwen's Agan/Nilp/Form brawl now. Nilp and I are innocent, so does it make Form innocent as well? Did Nerwen throw in some names randomly or would she name one of her fellow wolves there? Nerwen is surely bold enough to do it, but that doesn't mean she did it. Then again Form might have been the one turned on night 3. I have no idea.

I wonder if Durelin could have dreamed of Nilp and found him innocent?

Originally Posted by Dury #298

Aganzir makes good points about Nilp I guess, but I'm just not feeling it.

Self-admitted incredible idecisiveness in the same post might also indicate that she hadn't dreamed of wolves at all.

Mith, cyber sheep dog is a lovely term.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I haven't completely dropped my suspicions of Agan, but I'm leaning more on cobbler rather than hacker due to what we've learned about Nerwen.

Actually, I was once a cobbler and Nerwen a wolf. She was the only one out of the four that I defended.

Originally Posted by Nog

Somehow she manages to look quite innocent post by post but still I just can't rid myself from the idea she's a wolf.

Exactly my thoughts when I first read this last night.

edit: xed with Kit

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Mith, cyber sheep dog is a lovely term.

Thank you. I don't know why someone said my vote came out of the blue, I moaned about it the day before - and have always found it annoying in previous games - if finding Nogrod's playing style annoying were the only qualification, I would have been a wolf in every last game we have played. I don't quite know what he means by being considerate but if he thinks the feelings I expressed were insincere, he is sadly deluded.

Eomer, why do you never factor in the Ranger when you consider the wolves choice of kill? Admittedly there isn't a lot of sense in guarding a Hunter who are only useful (as gifted) when they get killed but I can't see why they would make a known Hunter a priority.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I don't know why someone said my vote came out of the blue, I moaned about it the day before - and have always found it annoying in previous games - if finding Nogrod's playing style annoying were the only qualification, I would have been a wolf in every last game we have played.

Now that you're around Mith please tell me what have I done to deserve this?

[Mithalwen]

Oh don't fret Nogrod it is only during the games that I could cheerfully murder you ....

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Oh don't fret Nogrod it is only during the games that I could cheerfully murder you ....

Thanks... I mean, as you said, this wasn't actually the first time.

[Mithalwen]

all those times watching the minutes ticking away into seconds and wondering what in Arda it will take for you to make a decision..... and then you claim dithering is a matter of principle rather than a lifestyle choice....

[Rikae]

Well, all that comes to mind at the moment is the following:
I don't like the way Shasta tries to sum up Durelin's dreams for us, nor the way Formendacil basically repeats his words about Kitanna.

However, I also don't see why Aganzir says Shasta was trying to look innocent by being the first to say something that Eomer had already said.

Why did Boro forget THE Ka?

It seems quite possible the wolves didn't suspect Durelin was the seer at all, meaning she hadn't expressed suspicion toward any of them. I'm not saying that's definitely the case, but Durelin basically fit the profile which might have led the wolves to kill Kath - a strong player attracting little attention in this game and leaving little in the way of leads.

I'm going to go through the previous days' posts if I can possibly find the time. For now, though THE Ka finds it suspicious:

Kitanna~eh. I'm still uneasy about her, especially because of the way Shasta and Formendacil dismiss her.
Aganzir~Neg-repping and spamming do go well together...
Shastanis Althreduin~ I will have to look at him more closely. Really, he needs to be properly analysed, though I'm not sure I have time.
Boromir88~ToDay he seems quite sensible and sincere, at least.
Eomer of the Rohirrim~ He seems honest enough, although at this point I don't want to take anything for granted.
Nogrod~I was a little worried about his relative silence, but toDay he seems back to his old self, complicated conspiracy theories and all. I'm inclined to think he's innocent for now.
satansaloser2005~Not getting much of a read on her, as usual.
THE Ka ~ No idea. Flying under the radar a bit.
Eönwë ~ Another that has fallen off the radar. There is far too much of this going on...
Formendacil~I thought him likely to choose Kath as a kill yesterDay, and he seems to be taking a very controlled, rather ... hypnotic? ... tone. I just have a bad feeling about him.
Mithalwen~Not looking especially suspicious to me at the moment, and I find myself wondering where that bandwagon yesterday came from.

EDIT: X'd with the last Mith and Nog

[Mithalwen]

Ah Rikae - it is a bit of a tradition for both Boromir and Durelin to suspect me... but I think I hurt Nogrod's amour propre....

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Formendacil~I thought him likely to choose Kath as a kill yesterDay, and he seems to be taking a very controlled, rather ... hypnotic? ... tone. I just have a bad feeling about him.

Kath was dead yesterday (though the intro had her in Glorfindel-mode dwelling on both sides at the same time and no doubt against the seen and the unseen she has great power!)? Oh you mean that yesterday you suspected that Formendacil would have chosen Kath the previous night?

Anyway he is certainly guarded and his original IC style hasn't totally worn off.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boro

Shasta makes you a bit uncomfortable with a post, but then a few sentences later Shasta's probably innocent? I wonder Agan, if you changed sides over night (whatever night it was)?

I wrote my day 3 stuff before I commented on that point of Shasta's, which I hadn't noticed when I first read through day 4, and because I wanted to keep my post coherent I added it to where the rest of my day 4 related things were. Though it would have made more sense if I had written the day 3 things before the day 4 ones.
I think Shasta looked innocent yesterday, but today I found that post of his strange.

And no, I didn't change sides.

Originally Posted by Rikae

However, I also don't see why Aganzir says Shasta was trying to look innocent by being the first to say something that Eomer had already said.

Whoops, it was so obvious that Eomer had already said it that I forgot it.
Anyway, my main point was the following: Shasta doesn't try to downplay the fact that Eomer wasn't attacked, but brings it up himself, seemingly wondering about it. Would a wolf do it? It might be easier for him to try to hush it up, and therefore Shasta might be a wolf. Garr I cannot explain it better. It looks silly but I hope you understand.

I never bothered to take a proper look at Shasta, and although I'm feeling lazy right now, I think I could at least read through his posts. Though with Nerwen and Nilp dead I don't have any clear ideas anymore.