Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

why did the wolves not attack you while you were focused on someone who was not a wolf? It seems to me it would have been the perfect time to get rid of you.

Why indeed?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Why indeed?

....

I'm afraid I still don't understand you.

[Kitanna]

It's time for me to vote. Given what we can gather from Durelin and her death over Eomer's last night I think the hackers guessed she may she the seer. She never came outright with her suspicions, but she hinted in certain directions. Given her suspicions and her voting I'd say she either dreamt of Mith or Nogrod (possibly both) as a hacker. That would give them cause to kill her.

Originally Posted by Eomer

If Shasta is not a wolf then surely the wolves would have wanted to kill me while I so strongly suspected Shasta. The only reason they would have not to kill me then would have been if Durelin was obviously the Seer. Take Durelin's suspicions at face-value, and if they don't get us anywhere Shasta is definitely a wolf. Of course, being that Durelin had Shasta as a top suspect, we probably have very strong leads either way.

This points toward Shasta as a wolf as well. Since why would the hackers want to attack a hunter who will drag down one of their own? But I will save this for another day.

++ Mith

Based on Durelin's lists and vote from yesterday chances look good she had a dream involving an evil Mith.

[Boromir88]

Shasta is reminding me of when I was the seer, wolf-Nogrod kills me and then steps in and twists what I said to convince everyone I dreamed he was innocent. Only, in this case Shasta is pushing for Kitanna's innocent. I've felt Kit has looked pretty innocent, but it always raises my brow when someone steps in to assure us who the seer dreams of, once the seer has been killed. (You can thank Nogrod for that).

Here are some things I do know. Durelin's been the seer before, and from past experience she likes to spend her Night 1 dream on a high-profile player. Someone who will probably be around for a while, talk a lot, and influence the village....someone like moi (and before that gets twisted - No, I'm not saying I'm innocent and Durelin dreamed of me).

Also, Durelin will leave clues for us to follow, knowing that any day she could be found by the wolves. So, I would guess she mentioned the person she dreamed of on Night 1 during the Day. The tricky part is finding the real clues, and whose identity she is revealing.

Eomer amuses me. He feels frighteningly familiar... Boro amuses me. A lot. There's something about Formendacil's attitude I like. Kitanna is boring, and her vote is even more boring. The Sixth Wizard amuses me. Nogrod's role is just too Nogrod. I want to see how long Nilp keeps his role up. Elf-warrior's first post amuses me.~Durelin, Day 1, post 60

Traditionally Durelin spends her first dream on a high-profile player and several of those players are named here. Eomer, The Sixth, EW, and myself all amuse her. We're all lumped together under "amusing her," so I doubt she dreamed (On Night 1) of any of us.

Now she says different things about Form, Nogrod, and Kitanna. She ends up voting for Kitanna, so I think that eliminates Kit. She mentions Nogrod's role (wannabe moderator) just fits Nogrod too perfectly, there's no feeling or statement of innocence/guilt, it's just a neutral statement. But, with Form she says there's just something about his attitude she likes. Is that our clue to her Night 1 dream?

I would say Form fits the type of player Durelin would dream about early on. Also, I would imagine each day she would leave us some hint as to who she voted for. She only had 3 posts on Day 1...her first post was completely RPG IC, there are no people mentioned, and so if there is a clue it's a cryptic one. That is something I will not be able to uncover. Her last post she votes for Kit on the grounds of stirring up trouble against Nerwen, and Durelin felt Nerwen was an easy Day 1 wolf lynch. On Night 1 at least she didn't dream of Kit or Nerwen.

Thus is it her 2nd post on the Day where she gives us the hint? She lumps several people together, makes a neutral statement about Nogrod, but with Form there's just something about him she likes.

As for her other dreams, Durelin (like any seer) would follow her suspicions, or dream of someone she doesn't know about. She missed Day 2 entirely, so on Day 3, there could be several clues to her dreams. Based on what she said, I have a feeling she had not dreamed of a wolf yet:

I want to look at:
Kitanna
Eonwe
Mith
Ka~Durelin, Day 3, post 252

I agree with Nogrod (and why I'm wary about Shasta's analysis), is why would Durelin say she wants to look at Kitanna if she dreamed of Kitanna and found her innocent?

Also, Nogrod and Boro haven't been getting nearly enough attention. But really, I feel good about Nogrod's vote, because I like sticking to principles. And I liked Boro's attitude on Day 1 anyway. Day 2 I need to look at...obviously.

Here she mentions the two loud-mouths, but I doubt she's dreamed of either of us. First off she says we have not been getting enough attention. Secondly her reason for liking Nogrod is very concrete (his vote), and for me, she is unsure. Also later on she would go on to say about Nogrod:

It just seems so right for Nogrod to be a wolf right now.~Day 3, post 298

I am going to assume for now that Rikae, Kitanna, Aganzir, and Boro are innocent, because they were at least sorta fairly consistently after Nerwen~Durelin, Day 3, post 295

Here are four people she's assuming are innocent. And she is assuming for now, another reason I don't buy the supposed fact that Durelin dreamed of Kitanna.

Now this is interesting:

Too bad Shasta and Eomer can't just duel and get a few things out of the way.~Durelin, Day 3, post 309

(bold - my emphasis)
When the seer dreams of another gifted, does the seer find out or is it just " ____ is innocent." I feel pretty embarassed because I've been the seer a few times and right now am having a total mind blank to whether the seer finds out the role, or just guilt/innocence.

Because then there is this from Durelin after Eomer reveals:

*sigh* Yes, yes, we figured by now you were someone important, the way you were acting...

Does Durelin sigh because one of our gifted had to reveal? The hunter is often times more dangerous when known then when unknown. Or does Durelin also sigh because she dreamed of Eomer, and thus found out he was the hunter...Hence why she leaves the "dueling" clue in post 309.

This doesn't look good for Shasta, but something I'm unsure about is whether Durelin dreamed of a wolf, because:

Well it took me absolutely forever to go back and read through things. And I am extremely clueless.~Day 3, post 295

Kitanna's analysis could be correct though, that she was onto at least one wolf, and the wolves wanted to silence her. This doesn't make Shasta or Mith look good.

I've probably cross posted with several of people, because this took a lot of time, so I'll just say it now.

[Mithalwen]

Usually the Seer finds out the exact role, some mods just say innocent/ guilty but that is usually stated in the rules.

Anyway back to work ...

[Mithalwen]

Oh I don't know sometimes warwar is more fun than jawjaw ... "String him up" is nice and succinct!

[Boromir88]

Boro, you shame us all with that wonderful post. Excellent stuff.~Eomer

Ya well now I might just scrap everything I've concluded about Durelin's dreams and start over. I kind of looked over Durelin's post 298:

Eomer bothers me. He's channeling phantom-ness.

I don't know why if she dreamed you were the hunter she would say that. Unless she was trying to remain hidden, and didn't want to make it appear like she knew your role? Or she wanted to keep suspicion on you because she knew you were the hunter?

Shasta and Mith are my two top suspects. I don't think both of them are hackers. I agree with Eomer that Mith seems like she's trying to give Shasta another day. I don't see why a wolf would be doing that for another wolf. I think one is the spammer trying to sacrifice herself today to keep the hacker alive one day longer.

Finding out Mith's identity would reveal a lot about sally (who made the deciding vote into Nilp's death) and Nogrod. I say Nogrod because he's been a crafty wolf before who has sacrficed his partners to make himself look innocent. I think I'm getting too far ahead of myself, as I'm basing all this off the two people who I think are guilty.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I edited my post above, and I realised that maybe Mith missed it. Just to let you know.

Shasta and Mith both seem like excellent lynching targets today. I must depart now, though, and possibly won't be back, so I'm voting for Shasta.

++SHASTA

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would say Form fits the type of player Durelin would dream about early on. Also, I would imagine each day she would leave us some hint as to who she voted for. She only had 3 posts on Day 1...her first post was completely RPG IC, there are no people mentioned, and so if there is a clue it's a cryptic one. That is something I will not be able to uncover. Her last post she votes for Kit on the grounds of stirring up trouble against Nerwen, and Durelin felt Nerwen was an easy Day 1 wolf lynch. On Night 1 at least she didn't dream of Kit or Nerwen.

Thus is it her 2nd post on the Day where she gives us the hint? She lumps several people together, makes a neutral statement about Nogrod, but with Form there's just something about him she likes.

Haven't read past Page 10, but I'll respond to the only thing (at least regarding me) that I've had a thought on, namely the above quote by Boromir.

As much as I would love Durelin to have dreamt of me, while not disprovable, I do not think this to have been the case, on the basis of her suspicion list yesterday. If she had dreamt and found me guilty, I'd have been at the top of the list--not the bottom. If she had dreamt and found me innocent, I'd not have been on it at all.

Oh, also a thought to Mith regarding my not-fully-shaken-off ICness...

Given that I am a Tolkien Canonist when NOT playing this game, I hardly think I could be accused harshly if I seem to retain the persona. Not that there is any conscious attempt to do so, mind, but it is sort of my modus operandi.

More after I read Page 11.

[Nogrod]

I just went backwards and saw Kitanna's nice analysis on Dury and the way she concluded to Mith's lupinity. So even if wolf-voting-wolfs are not unheard of () I'd say that if and when Mith turns out a wolf I'd be much more at ease with Kitanna. I mean it was clear there were a host of suspicions on Mith already yesterDay and thence Kit's vote might be important in the end.

But then again it would be quite "Mithish" to say to her fellows that: "vote me and get yourselves a good reputation as I seem to be a goner already..."

I remember people saying how their brains were hurting at different earlier stages of the game. I'd say mine is hurting only now...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

#367 Agan thinks Shasta looks innocent, Mith looks suspicious.

Actually, I thought it was likely that either Mith or Nogrod was a wolf, and Mith looked more wolfish. Though today Nogrod has been much more suspicious so I don't really know anymore.

Unless I miscounted, if we don't get a wolf in three days (and there are no ranger saves and Eomer doesn't take a wolf down), we'll lose.

Somehow I'm not so sure anymore if I want to vote for Mith. Kitanna and Nogrod feel worse, and to an extent also Form.

edit: xed with Form, Boro and Nog

[Formendacil]

Mith or Shasta? Shasta or Mith?

That seems to be the question of the day, and as a rare occurrence in my career with this game, I'm wishing we could double-lynch... I'm inclined to suspect both, and I'd be willing to sacrifice the other to catch one.

Murphy's Law: figures it'd be a game that forbid double-lynching that would see me want it.

Of the two, I'm more liable to vote Mith. Although the Shasta has its merits, Mith was on my radar earlier.

Besides these candidates, however, I've still got Nogrod stuck in my mind. I'm sure that if a bandwaggon came along, I'd put my signature to that vote with glee, but standing with just my own suspicions, I keep having second thoughts to the effect of "he's just too much of a philosopher, and you're suspicious as a philosophy student yourself that he's got wheels inside of wheels inside of wheels." Be that as it may, he's still on my radar.

I've mentally put Boromir, Aganzir, and Eönwë in the category of "innocent", and I'm really not sure why. This troubles me... but not enough to suspect them.

[Nogrod]

Oh my... In the beginning of the Day I thought Agan was a bit slippery... I mean it's not too often she has to take back her words and defend her inconsistencies but there she did it. I thought to leave it for later but now I feel I need to say this as she starts to look like Roa in good old times steering the votes at the crucial hours when her evilness so thought fit.

I don't think she was one of the original wolves but she might be the one turned into a baddie. I mean if Shasta isn't the new wolf (there's not only the "being still alive with Eomer" - but he also got hyperactive the very same Day the new wolf had been appointed).

EDIT: X'd with Shasta and Agan... now what did I say? If she manages to get me lynched I'll suggest you lynch her the next Day. That is so calculative...

[Formendacil]

Okay, I've read up to what was current as of my last post, but cross-posting and might have left me a little behind regardless. With half an hour (oh, and more... darned BD time being off... though it gives me a much appreciated 10 minutes, it keeps confusing me) until the deadline, plenty of time to catch that.

Thoughts are nebulous at the moment... Rikae, despite apparently having more time today, still has not said why I was suddenly so clearly evil yesterday, and has not really either confirmed that theory today or dropped it as mistaken. This irritates me, largely because I'm in the one in question, but also because it might speak of a wolf that realises I'm too innocent... or something.

Her complaint, however, that the day is devolving into a Mith/Shasta bandwaggon perks up my ears. Both cases, from my point of view, would seem to suggest that they could be wolves--and if so, then perhaps Rikae is concerned for her two accomplices.

The fact that we haven't killed the Cobbler is also starting to bug me... not because I don't think us capable of thoroughly confusing ourselves, but because I'm starting to think that I see everybody as confusing rather than suspicious, and thus it would seem to indicate that the Cobbler is providing good cover for the wolves right now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

....

I'm afraid I still don't understand you.

It wasn't the perfect time; in fact, it was a very bad time for you to attack me last night Shasta. And you knew it, you... diabolical wolf you!!! String him up!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Boro, you shame us all with that wonderful post. Excellent stuff.

Edit: Mith. Fair point, and I had spent too much time going over the various possibilities of last night in my head, but I'm not sure I, or the wolves, would want to complicate things. Thinking about the Ranger protection, we enter the horrific realm of bluffs. The Ranger could easily assume that the wolves would avoid me last night and protect someone else (just a pity it wasn't Durelin). Who knows what to think when there are 3 sides to the story? But I notice you are trying to buy Shasta another day.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Edit: Mith. But I notice you are trying to buy Shasta another day.

Am I? Other than being a thorn in your side (which considering you have been a thorn in mine all game, I slightly enjoyed) I haven't paid much attention to him. I will remedy that now and study him earnestly ....

Edit- oh yes I did miss it - you see I did actually have to go to work... so bless you for pointing it out.

[Boromir88]

I bet you all are going to love me today. Boro's got lots of time on his off day and would like to keep this an active day, and not resign ourselves to "Well Shasta or Mith will get it today, here's my vote, bye."

Eomer is the hunter. I see no reason to doubt it, so I won't be talking about him. So here comes everyone else not named Eomer, Mith, or Shasta)

Kitanna:

Votes:
Day 1- Nerwen
Day 2- Agan
Day 3- Eonwe
Day 4- Mithalwen

Her voting doesn't ring any alarms. I did say on Day 2 vote for Agan (after she said Nerwen grew in suspicions from the previous day) was odd. Now that Nerwen is a known wolf, why didn't you proceed to go after Nerwen? Most of the time she's voted early and it looks like a well-concluded decision.

Right now, I trust Kitanna and that is mostly due to her posting. Her analysis/theories of Nerwen's death and Durelin's dream are thorough, and make sense to me because they don't look misleading. I willalso say if we find out she is correct about Mith, I would trust her for probably the rest of the game.

Aganzir:

Votes:
Day 1- The Sixth
Day 2- The Elf-Warrior
Day 3- Nilp

Her three votes have lynched three innocents, that's not a very good track record, but so far in this game who has a good track record? Also, Agan's been very consistant, we know her biggest suspects and usually she follows up on them with a vote. Except on Day 2, but I think that was a realization there wasn't enough support to get Nerwen lynched. Where it feels like Kitanna is voting a little cautiously, Agan is not, and that speaks towards Agan's innocence.

I've felt good about Aganzir on Day 1 and Day 2, but these last two I've become less sure. Particularly what she said about Shasta today in 367:

This post makes me a bit uncomfortable. As if Shasta was pretending to be very innocent by bringing this up himself before anyone else does it.
[...]
Some thoughts about day 3.

I trust Eomer's claim. He and Shasta's little quarrel doesn't look staged, and I find also Shasta probably innocent.

Shasta makes you a bit uncomfortable with a post, but then a few sentences later Shasta's probably innocent? I wonder Agan, if you changed sides over night (whatever night it was)?

Rikae:

Votes:
Day 1- Nerwen
Day 2- Elf-warrior
Day 3- Formendacil

It worries me that Rikae has slipped into the background, but her voting doesn't look all that suspicious. Her reason for voting for EW looked innocent. Her vote for Formendacil was on a "hunch," but that doesn't make it suspicious, as she RL has been taking up her time. That won't give her a free pass for the rest of the game, but for today I think there are far more wolvish looking people than Rikae.

And more will come later...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I bet you all are going to love me today. Boro's got lots of time on his off day and would like to keep this an active day, and not resign ourselves to "Well Shasta or Mith will get it today, here's my vote, bye."

Oh well that is very gracious of you Mr 88 since you were so keen to see me dead yesterday

[Nogrod]

So why are Shasta and Eomer still alive?

I must say the wolves are real clearvoyants if they noticed Dury being the seer as it seems to be hard enough to find even one piece of hint from her posts even afterwards with the knowledge that she was the seer.

Neither do I believe the explanation that the wolves feared the ranger. Basically if the ranger protects the hunter s/he meddles with the hunter's work itself. From respect to other's duties the ranger should not do it.

So either of them is a wolf himself? That would explain them being alive toDay.

Okay. If Eomer isn't the hunter he's a spammer or hacker as at the first look at least I can't come up with a reason why an innocent would pose as the hunter. But in that case our hunter knows it and probably should come forwards with the issue. Killing the hunter is always risky for the wolves and getting the werewolves one down would be a good thing. But surely that is then something the hunter should decide.

But just because there would be a real hunter among us who could always disprove Eomer's claim the idea of posing as a hunter would sound a pretty stupid act to pull in not so dangerouis situation after all. I mean as a last effort in a really tight spot why not try, but it wasn't that bad. And it would be a win-win choice for the village as the real hunter could always say: "I'm the hunter, lynch me and I'll take that liar to death with me". And s/he would then be our hero.

So I must say it looks more likely then that Shasta is the wolf and Eomer speaks truthfully. That would mean the wolves were afraid to kill Eomer just because of the danger it presented to Shasta.

Or then it just never occured to the wolves they might catch two innocents with one kill in the first place.

It's sad but true that we oftentimes come up with great, wild and complicated plans during the Days to explain the actions or the lack of them while most of the wolves just play much more down to earth game not always coming up with those absolutely great masterplans... or noticing the real advantages.

But yes alongside Mith I'd be ready to vote Shasta as well toDay.

EDIT: X'd with Boro - and agree, let's not only say let's lynch either Mith or Shasta. We can do other thingsa as well and we should.