Werewolf XLVIII: When Virtual Becomes Reality

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Now, why are you seemingly convinced that what Boro did made perfect sense - so much so that I should expect someone to do it, and so much that he could have expected his fellow wolf to do it if that wolf were around? To me, his stunt looks, frankly, nutty.

Because attacking Shasta in the night would have been pretty risky - a missed kill this late in the game when there are so few of us left is not what the wolves want.
I am convinced that what Boro did made sense, but I don't know why it was just Boro who did it, given that he was one of the least suspected. But I can't see what's nutty in getting the ranger lynched, even at the cost of sacrificing himself, when the other option was to have a known innocent in the village, possibly for several days (since who knows if Shasta had gambled and not protected himself the first night after his revelation?).

Originally Posted by Boro

But why would a wolf Rikae be that obvious in defending a wolf? And one that was going to get lynched?

Because no one would think she were.

Originally Posted by Nog

So were they thinking Kath was a seer (she doesn't normally vote like that on Day1 even if she tends to hide in the shadows anyway) as she hit it right?

Or did they want a random kill that would help to frame innocent Eönwë? Or was Kath just totally random?

Originally Posted by Nog

Maybe Agan's actual involvement speaks bad for her and vice cersa?

Haven't I been actually involved until now?

**

I've reached the point of not trusting anyone.

If anyone else but Eomer had died in the night, I would be gunning for Nogrod now. No one seems to be suspecting him but he's still alive.

Rikae just feels wrong.

Somehow I'm feeling a bit better about Kitanna (and now, if you're the wolf, I don't know what I'll do when the game ends ).

And I would really love to see Eönwë post more today. Your opinions, whatever, just post.

**

I could try to do something useful and go through Rikae's posting.

edit: xed with Kitanna. Great - I'll do something else then. Like, check Eönwë's posts.

[Aganzir]

On day 1 Eönwë accuses Nerwen purely in character, and says she isn't doing anything useful, suggesting she's the spammer (though he also suggests that Nilp or Form is the spammer). He's a bit jumpy and says my accidental twisting of his words sounds wolfish.
He voted for Mith that day because she looked like she was half hiding behind her character and her attitude seemed slightly suspicious.

He continues being jumpy on day 2, but innocentishly so. He didn't suspect Mith as much anymore then - he thought she needed monitoring, but there were much more suspicious people around. He found EW the most suspicious for voting him without a reason after two others had done so, although he mentioned that Ka didn't seem to suspect him, either, but voted still. He voted for EW, and commented it seemed like he had become a suspicious character lately.

If he was a wolf from the beginning, I'll eat my head. There's something genuinely honest in those posts of his, and besides he voted for Mith on day 1. I don't want to underestimate a possible Eönwolf, but it would be an extremely bold move to vote for his fellow on day 1 in his first game as a wolf.

Okay, then day 3 when the new wolf was turned.

He's seemingly surprised by the Kath kill, but agrees that she left little trails. He thinks the extra wolf might not be easy to find, but hope shouldn't be abandoned. In his opinion, the person with the biggest change was Shasta, who was, if not silent, at least laid back, but was on day 3 lively and engaged in conversation. It didn't mean he was wolfish, though - the change might have been just because of time restraints.
Then he disappeared for hours and was back to vote for Nilp (who had 2 votes already), promising to explain it when he can.

On day 4 Eönwë replied to Boro's question about Dur saying she wants to look at Kit, asking if he had considered that Durelin would have just wanted to hide her identity by not naming the wolves, since if she had dreamed of her, a radical change of mind would look suspicious. This looks unlikely to me, and though I agreed with him then, my suspicion on Kitanna has lessened since. Somehow he looks like he's trying not to let suspicions on Kitanna fall.

I asked him to explain his vote for Nilp since he had promised to do it, and he said he didn't really know why he voted - it was more of a feeling. If he had been there at deadline, he would probably have voted for Mith. This is the first thing about him that I think is a bit suspicious. Mith had attracted so much suspicion on day 3 that it would make sense if the wolves had decided to sacrifice her after that. Eönwë might have wanted to make himself look better by saying that - but on the other hand he had been suspicious of her from the beginning (although he didn't mention her at all on day 3). Though if I remember correctly, Mith didn't have any votes by the time Eönwë voted whereas also Eönwë himself had one, so his Nilp vote might also have been for self-preservation.
In the same post he said that Shasta and Eomer seem suspicious, but he hopes they are "as innocent as they are entertaining".

He suspects Eomer for not voting Mith:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

And how come Eomer is not voting Mithalwen?

He kept on saying how suspicious he was of her on the first two days, but then on the next two he votes Nilp and today he votes Shasta, specifically avoiding voting Mith. Is he our innocent-turned-wolf?

Now, now... There should be nothing suspicious in changing one's mind. This post suggests Eomer became a wolf and was informed Mith is his fellow. Eönwë accuses someone of not voting for a wolf before Mith's role is revealed to the village. Whoa.
Thus far I've been more inclined to think Eönwë could be innocent, after all, but not anymore after this one. Or, say, his innocence became just much less likely.

Then he votes for Mith himself. His main suspects were Mith, Shasta, Nogrod, Eomer, and maybe Kitanna, who was sometimes suspicious and sometimes not at all.
He replies to Nogrod's comment on his eyebrow-raising habit of not reading posts by asking if it wouldn't be too obvious even for him, if a wolf.

Day 4 is the last day he's really vocal. Only eight of his 57 posts were written during three last days.

On day 5 Eönwë agrees with Nogrod about Shasta being suspicious - he looks like he was trying to save Mith. Nog seems to be making a lot sense, but he doesn't know if that means he's a wolf trying to look good. After Shasta's revelation he jokingly (IC) suggests that both Shasta and Eomer are wolves who are just trying to look like gifteds, and ends his post by saying he seemingly got a bit carried away. That day he didn't vote, and tells later that his internet died. Now, tell me, Eönwë, who would you have voted, and why?

On day 6 he votes for Boro, notes that he has become a chief suspect, explains not voting and asks how he is connected to the Kath kill.

**

On days 1 & 2 Boro says Eönwë looks innocent.
On day 2 Mith says Eönwë could be the spammer.
On day 1, Nerwen votes for Eönwë when there was the risk that either she or Mith might have been lynched.

**

He doesn't look very suspicious after day 2, either, although more than on the first few days. But there are some things that really make me uncomfortable, like that quote I posted. And also that Mith thing - suspecting, not mentioning, suspecting again. But somehow I don't like the thought that he was turned in night 3 - or then Boro just is a damn good wolf and a horrible backstabber.

I think I could take the risk of lynching Eönwë today, and if he's not the wolf, my next choice would be Rikae.

Off to take my friend's dog for a walk (that's the price I have to pay for being allowed to stay at her home while she's fencing).

edit: xed with two Kits

[Eönwë]

First of all, I want to say that I think Boro is the changed wolf.
Just for example look at what he said about me.

On day 1:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I think he's innocent.

on day 2:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I don't want to see Eonwe lynched

But then there is a change in day 3:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Now people that I strongly felt were innocent (Eomer, Eonwe, Agan) could suddenly be the one who changed sides overnight. Spotting a flip is possible, but I agree it definitely shouldn't be our priority.

he hints, but then later on:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

and I may have to start reconsidering my thoughts on Eonwe.

On Day 4:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I said that Eonwe's Day 1 vote didn't look suspicious, but I might do a complete flip-flop here on Eonwe who is baffling me right now. (I'll get to that in a bit). Day 2 vote was out of self preservation, that doesn't say anything. Whether wolf or not, most people would want to stay in the village (occassionally we get a couple suicidals).

Originally Posted by Boromir88

An apologetic wolf is not unheard of.

and after that he starts treating me as a wolf.

Now, you could just say that he is an innocent that changed his mind, but that's obviously not true.

Then you could say that he was doing this to protect me if/when he died and we had planned it out. But then I wouldn't make it this obvious, would I?


The point I was trying to make is that we should look at all the posts, not just those after Night 3 (or just comparing before and after Night 3). All, I'm saying is that I think that this person has been a wolf since the very beginning, and has been hiding well. Of course, I may very well be wrong, but I'm just saying we shouldn't limit our sights.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

First of all, I want to say that I think Boro is the changed wolf.
---
All, I'm saying is that I think that this person has been a wolf since the very beginning, and has been hiding well. Of course, I may very well be wrong, but I'm just saying we shouldn't limit our sights.

Exactly which one did you mean?

In my opinion, either Boro or you is the changed wolf. You, because you started being more suspicious after day 2. Or Boro, because he was arrgh so innocent-looking before that (though also after that ) and I don't want to admit to following a wolf so blindly.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Then you could say that he was doing this to protect me if/when he died and we had planned it out. But then I wouldn't make it this obvious, would I?

You would. Then you could ask "But then I wouldn't make it this obvious, would I?" and try to look innocent.

It would make sense that he started suspecting you when you were turned, since his fierce defense of you on the first days would have looked like defending a fellow wolf when one of you was discovered.

Okay going now.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

You would. Then you could ask "But then I wouldn't make it this obvious, would I?" and try to look innocent.

It would make sense that he started suspecting you when you were turned, since his fierce defense of you on the first days would have looked like defending a fellow wolf when one of you was discovered.

But people would say that anyway, so I was already pre-addressing the point.

[Rikae]

I'm exhausted - nine hours at work - just a few quick thoughs on toDay for the moment, though:
First:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Because attacking Shasta in the night would have been pretty risky - a missed kill this late in the game when there are so few of us left is not what the wolves want.

Worse than losing one of the two remaining wolves? Not to most wolves, I would think.

I do think Eomer's death makes Aganzir look more innocent.

Second:
I don't like Kitanna's post #635 - too much stating the obvious and too much "we can't tell anything". Sinister when Eomer's death points to her, among others.
Second, I don't like her vote. Her suspicions toward Eonwe don't seem particularly well formed, and seem to have come along, perhaps, in response to Nogrod.

[Rikae]

An hour ago, I thought I'd be too exhausted to participate, so I told Mac to help me out and do a quick Nogrod-analysis (since nobody seems to actually suspect him at all, which is odd). Now that he has finished it, I don't want to waste his effort and would still like to post it. Mac would like to remark that he has a little bit of a history to suspect Nogrod, but he really tried to be objective. He's not sure whether he succeeded, though.

Day One: He doesn’t seem to make any major points on day one, but on the first day, that’s nothing to be worried about. I noticed that he mostly criticised a few votes, which is a little convenient, because people who have voted are unlikely to return. It’s an easy way to go through day one without stepping on the feet of anybody who could step back.

Day Two: As I understand, Nogrod has been short on time up to this point? Anyway, I’m starting to wonder about the lack of real points in his posts. In #224 he gives us some on Kitanna, but that’s already it. I would expect Nogrod to try harder to read sense into the situation. In #168 he defends Nerwen rather vehemently, which raised an eyebrow of mine.

Now it’s getting more interesting, since it’s possible he was only turned into a wolf now (or Mith was just turned into a wolf).

Day Three: #258 is a bit suspicious to me: he makes a quite definite statement about what a wolf would do and, of course, what he did himself so far is unequal to that. He then builds up his suspicion on Mithalwen, which looks genuine at this point. Nothing more to say about this day.

Day Four: On this day his suspicion of Mith is starting to look fishy. He repeats to be certain about Mith several times, without giving any new input. Look at #356 and #359, for example. I’m undecided whether the chat between him and Mith that follows could be “wolf-on-wolf chat” or not. Later, he keeps on suspecting Mith strongly, but look at #408 as an example on how unaggressively he does this, mentioning his top suspect somewhere in the middle among his lesser ones. The way he handles it sounds like “I’m absolutely certain about Mith, but if you want to lynch someone else, oh well”. This really looks wolvish to me, because in hindsight he can claim to always have suspected Mith, but at the same time, he did not do much to actually get Mith lynched.
Another thing I noticed is that, after Eomer revealed, he kept on talking about the possibility of the “real hunter” challenging him. Is it just me, or does this look like a wolf hinting to the cobbler to challenge Eomer? (#378, #432)

Other than that, what he did that day looks quite innocent.

Day Five: He complains about the voting, which is a little fake, since he could have tried to alter the outcome earlier by urging a few people to vote for Mithalwen. I’d say that’s a sensible thing to do if your best suspect is on the verge of being lynched.
When Shasta and Boro came forward, he takes the side of Boromir. But then, many did.

I’m puzzled by how confused Nogrod is about his other suspicions. Is this genuine or a wolf trying to look confused in order to not have to come up with anything? In any case, it’s a bit untypical for him.

Day Six: I’m wondering why people think Nogrod to be so innocent-looking this day. He urges people to give their thoughts on everybody and keep on giving input, but then he fails to do so himself. All day long, he only agrees with what other people (Agan, especially) said. The only person he attacks a little is Eonwe, the least experienced villager left (no offenses here, Eonwe). However, his only real point against him - at this point! - is his DayOne behaviour. #615 is something a wolf would post to appear helpful without giving opinions of his own. I’m really sorry if I’m wrong about this, but, as I felt before, Nogrod doesn’t appear to be really interested in reading sense into the situation.

Day Seven: Continues going after Eonwe and does an analysis of Eomer, leading him to drop prior suspicions of Aganzir. Not much to say.

[Aganzir]

Form suspected Nogrod more or less through the whole game, and wouldn't have minded lynching Eönwë in the first few days. He thought it likely that Durelin had dreamed of Kitanna and found her innocent. He suspected Rikae, and said she could also be a wolf who found him too innocent. On day 4 he thought Eönwë and I (and Boro) were innocent, started suspecting me, and seemed to find me innocentish again on day 5 unless my English skills fail me.

Eomer promised to take a look at Form but never got the chance.

Just thought if there was anything that would be of any help, since his kill probably wasn't completely random but chosen according to the interests of the last wolf - he might even have been relatively easy to frame after voting for Shasta despite finding Boro more wolfish.

Now, did he hit something right? If the wolf wanted to reduce pressure on him/her, Form's death would point to Rikae or Nog. If Kitanna or Eönwë were the wolf, wouldn't it have been easier to pick someone who really suspected them? Though very many didn't suspect Eönwë anymore when Form died, so could it have been a precaution, since Form had suspected him earlier? Or do they want to bluff? Somehow it would make more sense to pick someone who is more dangerous to the wolf, instead of bluffing, at this point of the game.

I'll go and watch the Sleeping Beauty now with my friend, but will be back to vote.

edit: xed with Eönwë. Yay, life in the thread!