Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

I am sure one of you clever folk will probably spot a gaping hole in my reasoning but would it be completely stupid to lynch Kitanna if we don't get a better idea. We are going to lose her anyway? I know it doesn't get us a wolf (unless she is one) but we can't do any other harm?

That actually sounds like an ok idea. It'd better than going for the 8/9 possiblity of getting an innocent.
The problem is that Day 1 will lose its value even more, until at least Day 3, when it might be already too late. We can't analyse people, as we don't have anything to go on. And this might make Day 2 almost as unproductive as Day 1 (but we will still have the WW kill and possibly the Cobbler Assassin kill). Because we'll have much less to work with, we might, at worst, lose 4 of our number (that's a third) by the beginning of Day 3 (two wrong lynches and two night kills) and then we'd not have many chances left.
On the other hand, even if worse comes to worst, we'd only lose 4 all in all. If we lynch someone else today, who turns out not to be a wolf, but is an innocent then we could at maximum lose 5, which would be devastating for us.

But is it risk we should take? I'm not sure...

edit: x-ed since Lommy #75