Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

-what I intended to post last night.

I copied it into a word document so I wouldn't lose all my thoughts.

So, without further ado, here is what was on my mind almost exactly 24 hours ago:

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil @ 4:01pm EST on the 20th of August

Has he ever not been in it?

Agreed. And with people playing who want the wolves to win? Freud would be having a field day, but I wouldn't base any life-threatening judgments on his opinions anyway.

Peach, perhaps? Oh, that would make my day... If only I had the proper pan for such things, I'd make the best cobbler you ever came across. Oops, sorry Papa Freud; you were listening? Don't mind me, I'm just amusing myself... no, I don't wish that! How could you accuse me of such things?!

Aww, Phanty, casting aspersions on my character when everybody involved knew perfectly well I wouldn't be around for a few days? However, later on in my post, when I actually start mentioning anything of substance - rather than just reflecting on what I've missed thus far - I'll get to you...

I think your phrasing on this statement nails it: you didn't say you don't think he's telling the truth, you said you don't think he means everything he says. HUGE difference.

Because, you see, the phantom doesn't lie. He bends the truth, yes. Stretches it so thin it starts to resemble taffy, sure. But he doesn't lie. He tells pieces of truth that get him what he wants. Which makes him dangerous, because you won't be able to nail him on any falsehoods, and he doesn't outright state things he doesn't actually believe, though he will say things with a politely phrased excuse to preclude his wrongness. Analyzing his posts for manipulation? You could have killed him after his first post of the game. He's a pro at bending people to his will. But that doesn't guarantee he's evil. It just guarantees that he's charismatic.

Anyway, here's my point on the phantom:

Being a creature of habit, I firmly believe he's guilty as sin and should be lynched asap before he can cause more damage.

BUT:

I also know that because he manipulates via truth-telling, even if he's guilty, we should keep him around because he's still going to come up with excellent theories, he's still going to point out key information, and he's still going to have informative and amusing posts. He's educational, even when he's trying to kill you.

Besides: we can always kill him later.

[the phantom]

So, the one single post you were going to make yesterday was dedicated to me?

How sweet of you.

You should've shown up. We could've argued. And then tempers would've flared and you'd get yourself lynched. And when it was discovered that you weren't a WW I would've been lynched the following day to avenge your death.

See what you miss out on when you don't show up!

Just fyi, I will be gone for about seven hours or so, but I'll be around quite a bit the rest of the day. And I'll talk a lot.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

So, the one single post you were going to make yesterday was dedicated to me?

I would have made more posts but that was the only one I'd actually composed by that time since I was busy abandoning you to frolic with another man for a few days, and since my initial return plan was to post my first thoughts upon reading and go from there.

It's phantomocentric because of your penchant for taking over all discussions and directing attention to yourself. Since you're stealing the spotlight, wolves can float under the clichéd radar simply by letting you do it. They don't have to expend effort casting suspicion on somebody else when you're busy garnering everybody's attention. Such a boon to them, giving them invisibility like that by being such a flagrant narcissist.

Originally Posted by phantom

And I'll talk a lot.

Is that supposed to surprise anybody?

("I've missed you, darling... you've no idea...")

[Eönwë]

So, Lalaith has been killed. Laughter doesn't seem to be killed though, judging by tp and Fea's post today.

Ok, so let's look at the:

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Trails of evidence and all that.

Well, she immediately attacks Gwathagor and (at least as I interpret it) accuses him of wolvery. Then she calms down on that case and says that she'll "watch and wait on him".

Next she agrees with Nerwen that cobblers as afraid of lynching wolves as ordos are of lynching gifteds.
Then she immediately votes the phantom, as she says he is cobblerish.

So, was it one of those two (or both) that were wolves, or were they framed?

*dun dun du-u-u-u-un*

*Find out next week on Ye Eönwë Showe.

[Eönwë]

Or was it just completely random?
Or did Lal just seem innocent enough to kill without worrying about her being a cobbler?
Anyway, in this game, we have possibly 5 cobblers. If tp isn't actually officially one, he definately is in playing style.

edit: x-ed with no-one. What a quiet Day this is so far (but it is only 1.5 hours in)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Laughter doesn't seem to be killed though, judging by tp and Fea's post today.

Joker always told me that [s]laughter is the best medicine...

Anyway, I can't help but feel like first-night wolf kills don't reflect a whole lot. Every time I've ever been a wolf, the idea has kind of gone along the lines of, "Well, this person could be the Seer, or not, but either way it's one less enemy off our backs and either way it's not like we've had enough time to leave evidence to convict us."

Of course that's not to say that we should just ignore who said what about her, and what she was saying; it's just pointing out that there's not nearly as much profound meaning to attach to early wolf kills as there is later in the game when they start to get real worried about which player is hording secret information like a highschool kid with a bottle of Jameson.

edit: x-ed with Eönwë

[Nogrod]

So Lalaith it had to be then... that's too bad as she made sense. But also an excellent choice from the wolves. I mean there are certain patterns in wolf-kills even if people may consciously try to avoid them or try to mislead others by acting differently every once in a while. So some people just go for getting the strong or loud players out for maximum effectivity, the others go for sportiness and kill the quiet, some go for the "no-tracks left behind" and others for maximum confusion, and all go out for the seer. And many of us know what to think or where to look, if we see certain kind of pattern emerging from the kills.

Now Lalaith seems to be a pick about anyone of those stereotypes could have made and which could point at any direction.

Now let's look at the next scenario which might be the one which the wolves would like us to come up with:

Lalaith voted for the phantom and just insisted on him without too many arguments. So tp is a wolf and they thought Lalaith is the seer... The phantom voted for Lalaith (though overtime) to make himself look better toDay - just a thing tp would be able to think already in the end of Day1.

Fine and dandy. But at least for now I think it's not the case. It's just a bit too neat. The seer had a dream on Night1 and from all the other 17 she picked the lupine phantom and went for him with a "hunch" and speaking more of "cobblerism" to hide her seerdom. But the wolves thought they had caught her and thence tp voted her to be better off toDay and then they killed her.

Somehow I don't buy that. At least yet.

So maybe it was because Lalaith didn't have any specific suspicions and only voted with her hunch so the kill leaves no track? And it could have been done by anyone...

... and it might point at tp, almost frame him... so who's the most annoyed with him?



What other leads do we have toDay?

There were five votes for Kitanna and it would be an interesting thing indeed if there were no cobblers or wolves in there. Not perhaps in the early voters as it is clear lynching Kit was against their own good (loosing a free "one-villager-down") but maybe later, when it was looking quite clear Kit would be lynched anyhow so they would have tried to take advantage of the obvious outcome (Nerwen, maybe already Nilp?).

Those trying to sway the Kit-lynch early on, eg. those trying to make the lynch more profitable to the wolves, should be ones to be looked at more closely as well toDay. That means basically Lommy, Greenie and Dury.

And even if I think about everyone not voting / posting on Day1 came forwards in the discussion thread explaining their situations I still think it was outrageously too many who went through the Day1 with giving us no or very little clue about themselves. This is no personal disclaimer or anything like that. I'm one of those who always declares that we should really trust what others say and that the game depends on trust in each other's words and deeds outside the game (and distrust for about anything said inside the game). So we just had tough luck this time with 1/3 of the village either not posting or not voting. That's a bit too much even if we can't do anything about it - and it gives the baddies the advantage.

So let's speak toDay, all of us...

EDIT: X'd from Eönwe's first post onwards...

[Eönwë]

Come on- Talk ye invisible people!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'm bored with being the only person around.

I believe in the early-game significance of analyzing first day posts exactly as much as I believe in the easter bunny. Give it a few days and maybe it'll be worth something. Probably not.

You don't get ANYWHERE until people start analyzing the first real wolf kill, because there's nothing for anybody to hide until then. There's no crime. There are no criminals until after the first day is over. First day posts, therefore, hold no evidence of crime.

So I'm going to go read a book. There's no point in me sitting here alone whilst folk across the pond are settling in for bed and everybody else is still busy with their days.

Call me when there's something worth discussing. Like how people react to Wolf Kill One.

Because until we have that? We have nothing worth going except the same old rehashed arguments about hypothetical hunting techniques and friendly banter.

On that note, I think I ought to be in character for a second or two:

I have a dream. A dream where one day... the world becomes kaleidoscopic, like a lemming. Yes... that is my dream. Make of it what you will. It is profound though. Never doubt its profundity.

edit: x'ed with Eönwë, who is as impatient as I.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

There were five votes for Kitanna and it would be an interesting thing indeed if there were no cobblers or wolves in there. Not perhaps in the early voters as it is clear lynching Kit was against their own good (loosing a free "one-villager-down") but maybe later, when it was looking quite clear Kit would be lynched anyhow so they would have tried to take advantage of the obvious outcome (Nerwen, maybe already Nilp?).

But, as Nerwen pointed out, it's in the cobblers' interest to avoid getting one of their wolves lynched (and their fellow cobblers, though that's secondary in importance). And as a wolf, I might well have considered *going with the flow* on that one, myself, even though it goes against my WW 'philosophy' (lolz, I know). There has never been a cleaner appearing lynch and never could be. I'm really going to have to try to not focus on the people who neatly went along with the Kitanna lynch.

I found myself disagreeing with Nogrod on several things already, which makes me feel we are on different sides...in this case meaning he is of an evil sort.

As for the Lalaith kill, she was set on phantom and interested in Gwath. I doubt she was killed as a potential seer because she suspected a wolf, but her suspicion of phantom and her jump on Gwath were both more purposeful than most of the typical musing going on. Anyway, as Eonwe pointed out, she may have just seemed un-cobblerish to the wolves. And as Fea pointed out, she may have been a *maybe the seer* pick without anything behind it.

Nogrod feels bad to me. With all he said yesterDay and toDay about how it's only in the wolves best interest to try and get someone lynched other than Kitanna, yesterDay he developed his own quiet but consistent 'argument' for the lynching of Groin that basically boiled down to "he's quiet and isn't useful", being consistently Nogrod-ish but for show only. And yes, he voted for Groin. I had to go back and look, I couldn't remember at all who he voted for.

As for distinguishing between wolf and cobbler, I just can't begin to do that in my head.

I'll think more, just not right now...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't like phantom. I most vehemently do not like phantom. I agree totally with what Fea said; by pulling all attention, all the time, to himself, he's letting the wolves slide by quite nicely. Not to mention that no one ever wants to lynch Phantom because he's (and at least three people have already said this!) "entertaining". It would not surprise me at all to learn that phantom is banking on that very fact.

(Now, do I mention that I have to vote extremely early due to a full schedule tomorrow? Or do I just let my vote hang out there in silence to see what that stirs up?)

++Phantom

*dons his sealskin and swims away*

[Formendacil]

What with getting my ends-of-Days mixed up, and discovering that I may not be on much toDay... you're in for an early vote, I suspect, though I might make it back on to harangue the lot of you in the wee hours.

First of all, the whole business of killing Kitanna yesterDay?

Idiots.

The whole lot of you.

Even those of you who DIDN'T vote for Kitanna are idiots, because you were so scattered and over the map that you may as well have done.

I mean seriously...

When someone's doomed to die, what kind a sloppy passing the buck is it to use that as an excuse to avoid taking responsibility for having to make a legitimate lynch? I mean, Day 1s are normally useless enough as it is... but to make it worse?

Best you could hope for was that Kitanna was a cobbler. If she was a wolf or a Gifted, Mac would probably have mentioned it. So, not only did you abdicate responsibility for killing someone, you did it knowing that the person dying was almost certainly not a wolf.

You didn't even try.

Bah!

[Gwathagor]

Feanor of the Peredhil - Potential wolf
Shastanis Althreduin - Probably innocent
Formendacil - Potential cobbler
Eönwë – Probably innocent, possibly a cobbler
Nerwen -
Kath -
Nilpaurion Felagund -
Durelin - Cobbler
Brinniel -
Nogrod - Probably innocent
A Little Green - Cobbler
the phantom - Potential wolf
Thinlómien - Probably innocent
Groin Redbeard - Innocent
Mithalwen - Innocent



Normally, I would read Lalaith's death as a sign that tp is not a wolf, as they both voted against each other yesterDay, and most wolves would like to avoid drawing attention to themselves in that way. However, tp thrives on attention and is supremely confident; therefore, he might try it. He could be a wolf, but I can't say for sure.

If tp is a wolf, Fea could be as well given the way in which she set herself firmly against tp right from the beginning of the Day.

And what to make of this:

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I have a dream. A dream where one day... the world becomes kaleidoscopic, like a lemming. Yes... that is my dream. Make of it what you will. It is profound though. Never doubt its profundity.

(From post #168, emphasis mine.)
I don't think seers actually make seer-hints. The repetition of the word "dream" may only be incidental, but it might also be a wolf's attempt to gain credibility.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

If tp is a wolf, Fea could be as well given the way in which she set herself firmly against tp right from the beginning of the Day.

Contrare- I'm not against him. I'm for him. I have no desire to see him hang, and if votes are looking to head his way, I am going to do my best to get somebody else to die. I repeat: I do not think the phantom is a good lynch candidate. I will not vote for him [at least not today, and probably not tomorrow].

My concentration on his skillful manipulation serves not to convict him but to prove that he intentionally draws enough attention to himself that he is incapable of avoiding the seer, and in this game the cobbler hunter. He makes himself, therefore, into a target.

A target which survived the night.

A target which, if I have any say, will survive the day.

And what to make of this: (From post #168, emphasis mine.)
I don't think seers actually make seer-hints. The repetition of the word "dream" may only be incidental, but it might also be a wolf's attempt to gain credibility.

Don't mind me. If you'll recall, my chosen occupation was something along the lines of a visionary whose visions tend toward the abstract.

Since I missed my day one chance to exploit my chosen role in a post of utter uselessness, I decided to commemorate everybody else's attempts at hiding their cluelessness behind pointless jabber by including a brief and nonsensical clip in my otherwise slightly more serious post.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Contrare- I'm not against him. I'm for him. I have no desire to see him hang, and if votes are looking to head his way, I am going to do my best to get somebody else to die. I repeat: I do not think the phantom is a good lynch candidate. I will not vote for him [at least not today, and probably not tomorrow].

My concentration on his skillful manipulation serves not to convict him but to prove that he intentionally draws enough attention to himself that he is incapable of avoiding the seer, and in this game the cobbler hunter. He makes himself, therefore, into a target.

A target which survived the night.

A target which, if I have any say, will survive the day.

Hang on. Is this because you believe the Ghost Who Walks to be innocent, or...?

EDIT: X'd with Durelin.

[Gwathagor]

I'm pretty busy toDay, but I'll be back before DL. Promise.

I want Groin to show up. He had mentioned some points regarding a potential wolf and I am interested to know what they are.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Normally, I would read Lalaith's death as a sign that tp is not a wolf, as they both voted against each other yesterDay, and most wolves would like to avoid drawing attention to themselves in that way. However, tp thrives on attention and is supremely confident; therefore, he might try it. He could be a wolf, but I can't say for sure.

You fail to mention somehing: Lalaith was very suspicious of you. Maybe you didn't want her to "watch and wait" for you to do something to her, and killed her in the night, eh? *nudges*

Maybe I was wrong about Greenie. But maybe she's just purposely attacking a fellow wolf. I'll just have to (as Lalaith said) watch and wait.

edit: apaling speling

[Kath]

Well, now I've got my brain in gear, hello! Just posting to let you know I am actually around toDay because I need to disappear and post for an RPG quickly and then I'll be back with you.