Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

If tp is a wolf, Fea could be as well given the way in which she set herself firmly against tp right from the beginning of the Day.

Contrare- I'm not against him. I'm for him. I have no desire to see him hang, and if votes are looking to head his way, I am going to do my best to get somebody else to die. I repeat: I do not think the phantom is a good lynch candidate. I will not vote for him [at least not today, and probably not tomorrow].

My concentration on his skillful manipulation serves not to convict him but to prove that he intentionally draws enough attention to himself that he is incapable of avoiding the seer, and in this game the cobbler hunter. He makes himself, therefore, into a target.

A target which survived the night.

A target which, if I have any say, will survive the day.

And what to make of this: (From post #168, emphasis mine.)
I don't think seers actually make seer-hints. The repetition of the word "dream" may only be incidental, but it might also be a wolf's attempt to gain credibility.

Don't mind me. If you'll recall, my chosen occupation was something along the lines of a visionary whose visions tend toward the abstract.

Since I missed my day one chance to exploit my chosen role in a post of utter uselessness, I decided to commemorate everybody else's attempts at hiding their cluelessness behind pointless jabber by including a brief and nonsensical clip in my otherwise slightly more serious post.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Contrare- I'm not against him. I'm for him. I have no desire to see him hang, and if votes are looking to head his way, I am going to do my best to get somebody else to die. I repeat: I do not think the phantom is a good lynch candidate. I will not vote for him [at least not today, and probably not tomorrow].

My concentration on his skillful manipulation serves not to convict him but to prove that he intentionally draws enough attention to himself that he is incapable of avoiding the seer, and in this game the cobbler hunter. He makes himself, therefore, into a target.

A target which survived the night.

A target which, if I have any say, will survive the day.

Hang on. Is this because you believe the Ghost Who Walks to be innocent, or...?

EDIT: X'd with Durelin.

[Gwathagor]

I'm pretty busy toDay, but I'll be back before DL. Promise.

I want Groin to show up. He had mentioned some points regarding a potential wolf and I am interested to know what they are.

[Groin Redbeard]

Circumstances beyond my control have come up, I expect this will be my last post.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I want Groin to show up. He had mentioned some points regarding a potential wolf and I am interested to know what they are.

Not to be entirely unhelpful, I'll give my points now.

I very much disliked Nogrod's conversation during the first day, taking more words than needed to say what needed to be said (and what he said was common sense). He played in well to the pointless part of his occupation, I don't know if that was planned or by accident but it is a good disguise for a wolf.

I made my suspicions known in my first post I made my suspicions known about loud wolves. Then he started to attack me with how I was feeling "wolfish" to him, he even voted against me with only that one post to go on. It is my opinion that a wolf will be compelled to speak, sometimes loudly, to stay out of the suspicions of others. It is the quiet who get lynched and the great who get killed in the night (yes you may quote me on that )!

Decide for yourself if you think this makes sense.

EDIT: X'ed with Eonwe and Kath.

[Nogrod]

Back again... just a quick answer for starters and then some discussion...

I mean it looks like I owe you an explanation as it was only Lalaith who seems to have gotten the joke. So my first post was made in a style of a philosophy student who has grasped a lot of theories but is going in circles and dead ends only to contradict himself with theory piled on another (the pointless philosopher). The second post and the few addenda to it were indeed made in style of Ludwig Wittgenstein's famous Tractatus Logico Philosphicus - the numbering of points into main cases and their derivatives etc... in logical order.

It was fun indeed. Sadly, it seems, a lot underappreciated... I thought I tried to add some actual points in there as well - the little that could be said in the beginning of Day1...

Originally Posted by Groin

I made my suspicions known in my first post I made my suspicions known about loud wolves. Then he started to attack me with how I was feeling "wolfish" to him, he even voted against me with only that one post to go on.

Sorry Groin but I didn't "attack you" because you said the loud ones are wolves - I wasn't even a loud one myself on Day1 - and I hope I won't be one toDay either (I'm trying my best not to). And surely, why would I take the burden of all us (normally) loud-ones to myself? I'm not that egotistic.

The point I voted you - and suspected you on the contrary to what you think - was actually that you only made one post which was all too agreeable. It looked like trying to gain some friends, to say something overtly general that would not upset anyone too much and then you just vanished. What a perfect way for a wolf to slip under everyone's radar on Day1 and get through it!

(Or as the new phrasing goes: "sleep under everyone's reindeer"! )

Today I saw your explanation in the discussion thread and think differently of you. And your points even make me more confident you're not a wolf - as misled or wrong they are. And I can't stop wondering why tp decided to suspect you after your post on the discussion thread... As someone said it looked to me as well more like an innocent wishing to share a point and nothing more.

Okay. That's it for me on the subject. I'll turn to the matter of hunting the wolves and/or cobblers next.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Fea

With the votes all going for Kitanna, the wolves and cobblers got a completely free day without even the threat of death. That might be a first in werewolf history, that an entire village votes for a 'known' innocent rather than even bothering to try to win the game.

Perhaps the first time it's been done, but certainly not the first time it's been tried. We all remember WW 4, don't we? *snicker*

Originally Posted by me

I think he knows good and well that I'm innocent and wants me gone.

Originally Posted by Greenity-Greeny-Green

Could you elaborate? Why exactly do you presume that Form knows you are innocent?

Didn't you see- I changed my mind on that. That was only my initial reaction, but after reading what Nerwen had to say I became convinced of her theory.

And I see I'm not the only person who has noticed something. There are at least three others. I'd bet more but they are wisely keeping mum. One for sure was taken in, and another is being taken in but not in the correct manner. I must think how to proceed....

Fea- I'll address this to you seeing as I'm rather confident you've caught it and you give me the best chance at finding the same wavelength without being too specific. I just need to bounce something off of you.

I understand that it can be a rather good idea to ruin one's credibility with certain members of the village for the sake of protection, but isn't there a huge risk of backfiring? Or do you think that it is simply worth the risk to protect someone who should not die and flush out someone who should. Argh... it's hard to say this without actually saying it. Do you understand where I'm coming from at all?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nogood- erm, Nogrod

Lalaith's go on tp was definitive

Wrong. If she had shown up as our dead Seer then the comments she made regarding her vote on me would've clearly been interpreted as "This is just a vote, don't follow this." You did see what she posted right after her vote didn't you?-

Originally Posted by Lal

I've little or no idea who is a wolf

That's quite clear.

If she were the Seer she would've had two options- lay low or don't.

If she's the Seer and knows I'm a WW already and chooses the lay low option for survival sake, then there's no need to say anything about me at all, let alone vote for me. But if she chooses not to lay low then she would obviously say something to back up her vote rather than posting words that serve to water down her vote, as if she's afraid her vote will be trusted.

Do you understand this point?

[the phantom]

I have to rush off to meet some out-of-towners for lunch, but I'll be back during the final hour for sure.

[Kath]

I'll italicise any part of the post I put up before just so it's clear.

Nog - rather pointless so far, and what's with that 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 list in which everything useful in it could be said in one paragraph making it much easier to read?! Don't know whether he was trying to be warning or inflammatory with that narration quote about the cobblers, the fact that it specifically said it was too dark for them to see each other seemed obvious. My suspicion would be that right now they can't see each other ... but perhaps if they're left alive long enough they will eventually be told who the others are, thus making them a 'better' enemy.

phantom - I am intrigued by the niceness of his first post. But as I'm ill equipped to deal with two Werewolves all on my own, it is currently in my best interest to work with you guys to lynch them. Does that really sound like the phantom we all know?

Durelin - a little bit of stating the obvious. Talks herself in circles about possible Gifted/Cobbler reveals which again strikes me as a little bit of being obvious.

Eonwe -

Gwath -

Form -

Lalaith -

Groin - says to beware of those who are very loud, after mentioning at the beginning of his post that he is quiet.

Nerwen -

Shasta -

Brinn -

Lommy - 'two wolves are easy to find' is an interesting thing to say, I would have thought the fewer wolves there are the harder they are to find. Something odd in the way she's gone after Nogrod all Day, but that's pure gut feeling. Also potentially deliberately misunderstood something phantom said to ... I don't know, try to discredit him?

Mith -

Nilp - does seem to just grab onto what everyone else is thinking.

Greenie -

One thing I will say outside all this. Don't underestimate a Cobbler. Alright, so my experience with them is very different to most as I owe my win in one game to a very impressive Cobbler attack, but that just proves the point. The wolves are the main target it's agreed, but the Cobblers may not be as unthreatening as some people seem to think.

Hmm well, didn't add much else as it turns out. That was all from Day 1 btw. So, results are:

Suspicious:
Nog
phantom
Durelin
Groin
Lommy
Nilp

Not suspicious:
Eonwe
Gwath
Form
Lalaith
Nerwen
Shasta
Brinn
Mith
Greenie

Will now go on and look at toDay and then I'll have to vote because I won't be here at the deadline.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Fea, first thing toDay

-what I intended to post last night.

I copied it into a word document so I wouldn't lose all my thoughts.

And what was it... a few jokes and some rant / general defending of the phantom... So not much into the effect that she would "lose all her thoughts"... That kind of makes me wonder why she posted it? Sure I don't doubt it was written during Day1 but just why to post it as everything in it was kind of yesterday's news if news at all... and why to try and give the posting the credibility with a phrase "so I wouldn't lose all my thoughts"? Looks like an agenda-stuff... Fishy.

Also in #165 she carefully downplays any information to be gotten from early wolf-kills. Now if she and tp were the wolves and they killed Lalaith for fear of her being the seer that would be a neat way to address the situation.

And their permanent courting would be just the way they would perform as an evil-duo. Just incredible enough but somewhat natural to them.

Her insistence about there not being a crime and thence no guilt on Day1 just enhances the feeling: do not look to what happened on Day1 - but maybe later. If the theory of Fea and tp being the wolves is true that would be a wise way to try and discourage the speculation on Lalaith's death which does point to tp.

(Yes, I'm still aware that all I say is something the wolves wished me to think by setting tp up by killing Lalaith but I think this must be thought through before giving a verdict on it.)

Someone alrready noticed her "I have a dream... dream... dream" stuff. That would make her a cobbler rather than a fellow wolf. In that light she would believe tp is a wolf. Now would she be wrong? Would her "phantocentricism" be part of the scheme to let him know she's on his side? And surely it's possible Fea is a cobbler and tp is an ordo, Fea just believes tp is a wolf...

In #196 after a few initial complains about Day1 votes she says:

Originally Posted by Fea

With the votes all going for Kitanna, the wolves and cobblers got a completely free day without even the threat of death. That might be a first in werewolf history, that an entire village votes for a 'known' innocent rather than even bothering to try to win the game.

As well as inaccurate and wrong it also smells of lycanthrophy or at least cobblerism. There is something in that tone - like in the tone of Formendacil's complaints - that just sounds like they are coming from a mouth who knows more or tries to make her/himself look better than s/he is. I can't explain it. But read it and feel it. I mean an innocent wouldn't have that feel in their posts... I could have written that were I a wolf.

Her last stances on tp are that the more he gets the attention the more probable it is he will be dreamt of / cobbler-assasinated. That is kind of true. But if they are a pair in evil wouldn't that be just what she would have to say before someone else says it? And she already now stresses that he survived the Night - like the cobbler-assassin had no others to contemplate! And tp has I think stressed the cobbler-assasinator as well - more than a seer to looik for him...

A wolf would like to create an air that the cobbler assassin should check his "innocence" and not the seer. And if the wolf is someone as high profile as tp he should be as enigmatic and space-taking as he could as the seer might anyway dream of him sooner than later.

Looking at that I'd say the two might be in cahoots indeed - and playing fantastically! Well I wouldn't await for less from them...

But yes, these are just thoughts made from the perspective of the Devil's advocate. I need to think other things too. And I may be soon going out to the "Night of Arts" (running after Lommy and Greenie).

We'll all be back later though.

And we'll fight for the PC-time then all three of us...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by phantom

If she were the Seer she would've had two options- lay low or don't.

Yes. But if she had some knowledge she would face the dilemma of whether to tell it and just hope for the best or to go forwards. So by her vote she might show her knowledge (no clear reason behind it) and with the excuse "I've little or no idea who is a wolf" she tries to make you confident she doesn't exactly know anything... and that would be exactly the behaviour the wolves would have their antennas tuned towards. And that is the point here: why was she killed?

The seers may take many different tactics depending on their confidence of not being killed the next Night, their general risk-taking ways etc. But if she was right with you tp I'd say you would be competent enough to spot it even if it was done with reservations and suspecting you of cobblerism...

Okay, I'm off now as well for a moment.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I would like to pull a phantom and get all your attention, but the only attention I know how to get involves plus-pluses. Which means I'll get your attention only for the DAY, before disappearing into obscurity--and the ground.

Yes, you get to find out what people think about Day 1. The only problem is that, with no proper lynch, this is more like Day 1.5 than Day 2. (Eönwë)

We did get a proper voting. Why so sad?

And I can't stop wondering why tp decided to suspect you after your post on the discussion thread... As someone said it looked to me as well more like an innocent wishing to share a point and nothing more.

Actually he thought Groin was the seer, and not suspicious--it was I who suspected them.

Enedwaith, I have to be going, won't be back the next DAY, so . . . hope to do some analysis during my field work in Bataan.

We can all hope.

Yes. Enedwaith, here's my list yesterday:

Lommy, Gwath, and Durelin look somewhat entrail-covered to me, or at least ice cream-flavoured. Will observe them closer when I get back--if you let me live that long.

I have observed them, and it's

++Gwathagor

that looks most entrail/ice-cream covered to me.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Groin Redbeard

It is the quiet who get lynched and the great who get killed in the night (yes you may quote me on that )!

This is debatable, but I won't pursue the issue.

[Durelin]

I must vote, because I'm going out to lunch-dinner.

++Nogrod because he feels the worst. My brain tells me nasty things about others, but the most *feeling* is involved with him.

[the phantom]

Nog- if you are innocent then listen carefully.

Lalaith would not look like the Seer to a Phantom-Wolf.

If she had died and been found to be the Seer, it would've been a stretch for anyone to take her posts and apply them to me as a WW. Her vote for me has an extremely pronounced air of "don't take this to mean he's a WW". Read her posts again please. If she would have died and been the Seer that is the way most logical people would have interpreted her words.

But you claim she said what she did to avoid detection? That makes no logical sense. If her aim was truly to buy herself another dream then she never would have voted for a discovered WW in the first place. Her goal would have been either to leave a clue or not leave a clue. If she was indeed the Seer discovering a Phantom-Wolf, then she failed miserably at both.

I've been in villages with her before. She's much smarter than that, and I know it. And I think you do too. You really seem to be grasping at straws, and I can't figure why.

I have a guess of course, but I'd rather not mention it.

[the phantom]

Okay, so I guess that everyone is just wanting to leave Form-Cobbler to the Assassin tonight since there have been no votes for him?

[Nogrod]

I just came back from town (too much packing crowds there...) and thought to start actually thinking about the culprits before the girls come when I found this.

Originally Posted by the phantom

I have a guess of course, but I'd rather not mention it.

Now sorry if I don't follow this. Or is this something like one of your famous "traps" you're known you like to set? Well it backfired I suppose if it was one for I'm no cobbler or wolf who would like to share secret alliances. I'm after the baddies. And I'm no gifted either you should not dare to mention aloud if you're an innocent.

Originally Posted by tp

Okay, so I guess that everyone is just wanting to leave Form-Cobbler to the Assassin tonight since there have been no votes for him?

That might be a good idea as he doesn't seem wolvish but mainly cobblerish. And that would narrow down our choices toDay. Well, if the cobbler-assassin is wishing or willing to do that. I mean s/he might have other thoughts - maybe looking at you tp or me, or anyone.

But to be frank, yes, I'd suggest s/he takes Form the next Night.