Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[the phantom]

Personally, I can't believe that Groin wasn't killed during the night. Did you see what he posted on the Admin thread yesterday?

However, I think that I'll be able to make it tomorrow and I have some argumentative points that I want to make about a potential wolf!

He might as well hang a "Kill me" sign around his neck. It looks so much like a relatively new player who has found a WW with his dream and is chomping at the bit to post. I was sort of expecting to show up today and find him a dead Seer, and everyone slapping their foreheads asking why he had to be so obvious.

As far as Lalaith, I can't imagine she was pegged as a potential Seer. Her words about Nog and Gwath were nothing overly convicting- "benefit of the doubt just for now" and "watch and wait" and she made it clear that her suspicion of me stemmed from Cobblerism, something a Seer cannot see. In addition she doesn't seem to place any one special person in an innocent position, so no Seer flags there either.

Looking through yesterday nobody really raises a Seer flag. Or at least not obviously. A few people did give me Cobbler vibes though, so I would guess that the WWs tried to kill someone they were sure wasn't a Cobbler, and hope they got one of the two gifteds. Of course this means that the gifteds would do well to look slightly Cobblerish. I'm fairly certain they're doing it already though, for I'm seeing a Cobbler in more than four places at this point. Which is why I don't want to point fingers at Cobblers at this time.

[Formendacil]

Okay, because I have to get to bed, and because I really don't know for sure if I'll be back before the deadline (like to, but no promises)...

++the phantom

Because, if I were the mods and I was rigging the game, the four cobblers would be:

Nogrod
Fea

Me

and
the phantom.

And, of the three, the phantom's the only one I can bear to kill.

[the phantom]

Such powerful reasoning. You must care deeply about what happens to this village, Formendacil.

Because, if I were the mods and I was rigging the game, the four cobblers would be:

Nogrod
Fea
Me
the phantom

So you're actually admitting to it?

At this point in the game with all four Cobblers still alive it does indeed make sense to start gathering suspicion to yourself and playing off your usual style and a bit sloppy, but you're taking things a bit too far, Form. Are you really desperate to get out of this village? Feeling pressed for time in RL, so you want to do your bit and get lynched and get out?

I'm wondering if I even want to give you that satisfaction. I say we leave you for the Cobbler Hunter.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

1. a phantom and Groin are wolves.
   

   Hehe. Perhaps. We can safely conclude that a phantom is not a cobbler. I don't think any of us here, were he/she cobbler assassin, could bear not to make him the first target. Anyone disagrees?

2. Formendacil is a cobbler.
   

   I like the way he makes us feel sorry about killing Kitanna with his what-might-have-beens. Neville might not have surrendered the Czechs, and we might not have den Schoa. But he did, so we had. And we're here now. Instead of venting his spleen he could have done something more useful by actually throwing it (i.e., his spleen) at someone he actually suspects.
   
   *parry, riposte*

Will make a post on Lalaith's death later.

[the phantom]

Firstly, I agree completely with your Cobbler points, Nilp. I can't imagine that I wasn't checked by the Assassin last night, and I also am convinced of Formendacil's Cobblerism.

Naturally I disagree with you naming me as a WW. But Groin- I suppose he's a possibility. But I would really have to see more from Groin before I'm willing to go after him.

[the phantom]

And by the way Nilp, if Form is a Cobbler why did he vote for me if I'm a WW?

I think he knows good and well that I'm innocent and wants me gone.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

My statements are not AND ones, more like OR ones. </boolean> I'll be surprised if more than one of them turns out right.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

As far as Lalaith, I can't imagine she was pegged as a potential Seer. Her words about Nog and Gwath were nothing overly convicting- "benefit of the doubt just for now" and "watch and wait" and she made it clear that her suspicion of me stemmed from Cobblerism, something a Seer cannot see. In addition she doesn't seem to place any one special person in an innocent position, so no Seer flags there either.

Actually, tp, I was wondering myself yesterDay whether Lalaith might be the Seer (hiding behind accusations of cobbler-ism), so I don't think it's THAT far-fetched.

Now, I think there is a point to what Form is saying: if we hadn't spent the last part of yesterDay arguing over the benefits of Mith's scheme, we might have come with a proper lynching candidate.

All the same, he is clearly trying very hard to look like a cobbler (and I thought tp was bad). The question (with both of them) is– are they cobblers, or cobbler-impersonators?

EDIT: x'd since tp at #180.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by tp

He might as well hang a "Kill me" sign around his neck. It looks so much like a relatively new player who has found a WW with his dream and is chomping at the bit to post. I was sort of expecting to show up today and find him a dead Seer, and everyone slapping their foreheads asking why he had to be so obvious.

If you really thought he was the seer, why would you point such a thing out? After all, Groin is still alive and if you're right you just pointed it out to the wolves. Though I don't think Groin is the seer....his statement sounded more like an ordinary innocent who's eager to share his thoughts.

Now no more of discussing seers and such! I just wanted to point out tp's comment which sounds a bit cobblerish...

Originally Posted by Nilp

We can safely conclude that a phantom is not a cobbler. I don't think any of us here, were he/she cobbler assassin, could bear not to make him the first target. Anyone disagrees?

I could disagree. There were plenty of people looking cobblerish yesterDay and the assassin could've targeted any one of them. But I do agree that the way tp is drawing attention, an assassin would probably hunt him early on. Perhaps if tp is still alive after the first few Nights, then we can safely conclude he's not a cobbler..

Looking back at the Kitanna debate, here's a summary of what I saw about people's opinions:

For the lynching of Kitanna
Mithalwen
Gwathagor
Shasta
Nilpaurion

Against the lynching of Kitanna
Lommy
Lalaith
Durelin
Greenie
Brinniel

Could've gone either way
Nogrod
Nerwen
phantom
Eonwe

And here was yesterDay's actual voting:

Lommy: ++Nogrod (Nogrod 1)
Shasta: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 1)
Gwathagor: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 2)
Greenie: ++Gwath (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 2, Gwath 1)
Durelin: ++Gwath (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 2, Gwath 2)
Mithalwen: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 3, Gwath 2)
Nilpaurion: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 4, Gwath 2)
Lalaith: ++the phantom (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 4, Gwath 2, tp 1)
Nogrod: ++Groin (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 4, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1)
Brinn: ++Greenie (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 4, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1, Greenie 1)
*Nerwen: ++Kitanna (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 5, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1, Greenie 1)
*the phantom: ++Lalaith (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 5, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1, Greenie 1, Lalaith 1)
*Eonwe: ++Greenie (Nogrod 1, Kitanna 5, Gwath 2, tp 1, Groin 1, Greenie 2, Lalaith 1)

Did not vote: Fea, Formendacil, Kitanna, Kath, Groin

*Votes technically didn't count

Quite honestly, I just don't see why a wolf would want to lynch Kitanna rather than have a chance of the death of two innocents in one Day. I think it was Nogrod who mentioned the possibility of a wolf voting Kitanna as a throwaway vote later on, and I agree that could be possible. But for the ones who voted her early on, I'd say it's more likely there's a cobbler or two among them who aimed to distract us and didn't want to risk the chance of lynching a wolf.

Of those who were against lynching Kitanna, I strongly feel that there's a wolf among them. Because of course the wolves would rather have two innocent kills than one.

As for those who gave no such opinion of the matter and those who didn't even vote, they could be anything.

[Brinniel]

Some basic thoughts about players:

Fea: So far I have no clue. She hasn't really posted enough yet for me to get a good read on her.
Shasta: Pops out of nowhere, votes, then leaves...twice now. Mostly sound like it's due to RL interference, but I still find it a bit unsettling.
Formendacil: Was that last post of his a confession or just a weird joke? And if it was a joke, why would he base his vote on that? I think that last post was too bold to be a wolf, but there is something fishy about him....maybe he is a cobbler.
Eonwe: I'm really not sure. But based on yesterDay, he looks like maybe an indecisive ordo.
Nerwen: Is one of those who doesn't give a strong opinion about the Kitanna debate, but then votes for her as an obvious throwaway. Something about her seems a tad wolfish, but again I'm not completely sure.
Kath: Still hasn't shown up.
Nilpaurion: An interesting fellow. YesterDay he came out of nowhere an voted Kitanna bringing her into a much clearer lead...looks like the work of a cobbler to me.
Durelin: From past experiences, I know she can be very dangerous. She was one of those that were against the lynch of Kitanna...she voted for Gwath immediately after Greenie did at a time when Gwath was starting to be heavily talked about. Perhaps a wolf trying to create a second easy lynch target?
Gwathagor: YesterDay, I said I doubted he was a wolf, but probably a cobbler. I feel the same toDay, except perhaps I'm a bit less certain about how cobblerish he really is.
Nogrod: I keep finding me agreeing with him or him agreeing with me...but what does that mean? I don't see anything suspicious about him at this point, but I still don't really know at this point.
Greenie: I have the same feelings about her as I do with Durelin and for the same reasons.
the phantom: Always the center of attention, of course. It's really difficult to say what he could be. He's acting rather cobblerish, so maybe he is one. Or perhaps he's just an annoying ordo. Of course, I would disregard the idea of him being a wolf. While his behaviour seems too bold to be wolfish, I think only tp could act in such a way and pull it off.
Lommy: She was one of the biggest advocates of not lynching Kitanna. And while I said I think a wolf would be among those who had such an opinion, I don't think she's it. I mean, would a wolf be so bold and insistent as she? It just doesn't seem a wolf would be so obvious...
Groin: While I really hate to use outside reasons, his post in the admin thread does make him sound a bit like an ordo. But then again, it doesn't necessarily mean anything. And perhaps I'm just using that to get an opinion because Groin hasn't exactly said all that much...only one post.
Mithalwen: She's the one who originally came up with the idea to lynch Kitanna...there's absolutely no reason why a wolf would do this...and I kinda doubt a cobbler would either. Probably innocent.

So in conclusion....

Possible Wolves:
Nerwen
Durelin
Greenie

Possible Cobblers:
Formendacil
Nilpaurion
Gwathagor

No Idea:
Fea
Shasta
Eonwe
Kath
Nogrod
the phantom
Lommy
Groin

Probably Innocent:
Mithalwen

Yeah, my "No Idea" category is much too long...as always....

It's awfully quiet right now...this probably the last you'll hear from me for the time being, unless a bunch of people post soon. But I'll be back a couple hours or so before deadline.

[Mithalwen]

I only have a little time now and will be back later but I don't have much truck with these attacks on lynching Kitanna. If Gwath turns out to be a wolf I will eat humble pie but I bet they wouldn't think it such a daft idea if we had lynched the seer or the hunter last night. Given that some people were absent or very quiet yesterday it is quite possible that at leasat one wolf has been lying low.

As for these Phantom votes I think he would have rather more subtlety as awolf than to kill the person who voted for him.

I shall need a lot more than that to vote for him because.. I like having him around

[Nogrod]

Okay. the phantom first then...

Originally Posted by the phantom

As far as Lalaith, I can't imagine she was pegged as a potential Seer. Her words about Nog and Gwath were nothing overly convicting- "benefit of the doubt just for now" and "watch and wait" and she made it clear that her suspicion of me stemmed from Cobblerism, something a Seer cannot see. In addition she doesn't seem to place any one special person in an innocent position, so no Seer flags there either.

Looking through yesterday nobody really raises a Seer flag. Or at least not obviously.

Now if tp is a wolf that would be exactly what he would say! Or at least one of the reasonable options for him.

Look at the first underlining. So he downplays the theory about Lalaith giving seer-hints in the disguise of points on cobblerism with the reason that the seer can't see cobblers. If the conspiracy-theory holds then that was exactly the reason tp and his mate wished to do away with her. Lalaith's go on tp was definitive - and tp is quick to think he has been the one dreamt of by the seer on Night1 as you all know, I think.

The second underlined sentence just gives the case some added credibility even if as such it's of no good. But downplaying the idea that there was any seerish looking posting on Day1 eases the pressure on this particular case of Lalaith - phantom as well. But in the last instance it's only the wolves who can say whether someone's posting looked seerish in a way of being like that in it's tenor and also hitting the target eg. being possible "seer-posting".

So despite all his eloquence, charm and entertainment value I will be looking at the phantom more closely toDay.

Fea next... (after a pause with a cigarette and some thinking & reading...)


EDIT: X'd with Nilp

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nilp

Actually he thought Groin was the seer, and not suspicious--it was I who suspected them.

Yes, you suspected Groin first toDay but the phantom agreed with the possibility of your idea in post #179 - which was kind of an un-phantomish thing...


EDIT: Explanation as to why it is an unphantomish thing to do: he went to it somehow too quickly or easily. Like he was happy that someone brought forwards one more possibility for him to use his imagination and to back up his forthcoming vote. No, it's not that he needs help but maybe he just let his feeling show through the post that "yay, one more case I could make!".