Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[the phantom]

Form impersonating a Cobbler? I doubt it. Not his style. I'm of sure of him as I am of anyone.

There are a couple of other people that I'm almost certain aren't Ordos, but I'm not sure what they are, and in case they're good I don't want to point them out.

I wish there were more people around right now. But since there's not I'm going to go ahead and go to bed and wake up ready to chat away.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Form impersonating a Cobbler? I doubt it. Not his style. I'm of sure of him as I am of anyone.

I doubt it too. He could be a wolf trying to double-bluff us into not lynching him... but in that case he'd be exposed toMorrow (since he's begging the assassin to go after him toNight).

But... if he's a cobbler does his attack on the phantom mean he thinks tp is innocent... or is he trying to save someone he thinks is an endangered wolf, by launching an obviously dodgy attack on him?

This is rushed because I have to go now. I shall be back in about five hours.

[the phantom]

Ah, my bed feels extra comfy tonight. But one more post before I set the computer on the floor and shut the eyes.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But... if he's a cobbler does his attack on the phantom mean he thinks tp is innocent... or is he trying to save someone he thinks is an endangered wolf, by launching an obviously dodgy attack on him?

I think you may have latched onto something with that second point. Reading things over I'm thinking that's indeed what may be going on. But I don't want to elaborate on my reasoning too much right now. There's still something that I need to get my head around before I can be sure on which angle to come from.

There is a ploy going on here from someone but there are three possibilities for why it's being done and if I guess wrong out loud I might screw things up for everyone.

I'm also debating what to do about Form. On one hand I'm convinced he's evil and needs to die, but on the other hand can we afford to use a lynch on a Cobbler when we already have an Assassin who can kill him tonight? Or since there are three more perhaps we should go ahead and take him out now?

Let's see here... we could try to find another baddie (likely a Cobbler since there's more of them than WWs) and leave Form for the Night, or we could take him now and allow the Assassin to try out someone new. The advantage of the second scenario over the first is of course that if the Assassin picks wrong nothing bad happens, where as if we pick wrong with the lynch an innocent dies.

Anyone want to calculate some odds or lay out some numbers and whatnot? I'm too tired. It's almost 3 here. Going to bed now.

*zzzzzz*

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

• 31 - some mathematical issue with Nogrod, her thoughts of DAY 1, tells a phantom not to leave all cobbler-hunting to the assassin, and urges post analysis for possible cobblerish behaviour. A rather helpful post for an IC one.
• 93 - thoughts on possible cobbler behaviour, possible wolvish behaviour, a phantom, and a reminder of Fea's schedule.
• 97 - agrees reservations about the voting for Kitanna idea of Mith.
• 98 - some issue with Gwathagor re his declaring Kitanna innocent.
• 106 - continuation of 98. Still suspicious of Gwath.
• 130 - question about the rules, gives Nog the benefit of the doubt, will watch and wait on Gwath, is most worried about a phantom, thinking him rather cobblerish.
• 140 - says that Nerwen's thought on a cobbler possibly being in the Kit-voters was an 'excellent point'.
• 143 - votes for the phantom.

She said things of substance, helpful stuff, telling the wolves that she was most likely not a cobbler. (And they were right.)

But seerlike? Hmm . . . her suspicion of Gwath and the interesting comment of trusting him beforehand does look like a seer's attempt to disguise a dream. Hmm . . .

Enedwaith, some posts about Lalaith:

• Durelin's 109
  

  Both Gwath and Lalaith bother me now. Gwath's done a good bit of back-and-forth-ing already (not sure how to explain...debating more than others in that he doesn't seem to drop things as quickly, maybe), and Lalaith's "fishy" comment feels like an easy stir up of things.[/b]

• a phantom's

On my second reskimming of the thread, Lalaith is making me squirm. I'll read a post of hers and know that she's innocent, and then the next post she makes me think she's up to something.

[Thinlómien]

I'm a bit baffled as to why Shasta voted tp that early as he still seems to have been able to be around. Is he a cobbler or is he just genuinely very annoyed with him? I know tp can be annoying and I've been tempted to vote him just because of that sometimes, but Shasta's behaviour looks quite rash. Cobbleristic, even.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

All the same, he is clearly trying very hard to look like a cobbler (and I thought tp was bad). The question (with both of them) is– are they cobblers, or cobbler-impersonators?

Cobbler impersonators? Sounds unlikely to me. There's no one who'd benefit from impersonating a cobbler. For ordos, there is simply no point. For gifteds or wolves, it's too dangerous. They don't want to get lycnhed. Actually, the only kind of person who'd really profit from impersonating a cobbler is someone who is rather heavily suspected from wolvery. He could try to save his skin by making people think he's just a cobbler. And as there have been no heavy suspicions this far, I don't think there are cobbler impersonators around. Or then either they are or I am stupid... Although, I wouldn't totally discount the possibility of someone like tp impersonating a cobbler just for fun...

But... if he's a cobbler does his attack on the phantom mean he thinks tp is innocent... or is he trying to save someone he thinks is an endangered wolf, by launching an obviously dodgy attack on him?

He could. But I have no idea who'd that be... I mean, no one has been suspected much toDay. And if we assume that Form is a cobbler, he could be thinking that tp is a wolf and launching an intentionally silly-looking attack on tp just to make suspecting tp look ridiculous... but that would be a bit risky, I guess. Or he could be thinking that tp is a fellow cobbler and hoping to put up a proper duel with him. (Even though, he said he won't necessarily be back, so that wouldn't make sense.)

Lastly, I'd really prefer to talk about someone else than the all-attention-grasping phantom of whom I have no proper picture yet (except that he's bossing people around and being self-centered and all that jazz), but I think it's definitely worth paying attention to that he's already received two votes toDay, and neither of them because he'd look wolvish. I smell cobblery here...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Cobbler impersonators? Sounds unlikely to me. There's no one who'd benefit from impersonating a cobbler. For ordos, there is simply no point. For gifteds or wolves, it's too dangerous. They don't want to get lycnhed.
...

There is a point, ordos don't want to be lynched but they also don't want to be killed at night. As I said yesterday it is going to be a fine line between looking too innocent and being picked off by the wolves and looking too suspicious and being lynched. Therefore looking slightly cobblerish is a good tactic. Especially since they have nothing to fear from the assassin at night.