Tol-in-Gaurhoth LII: Star Crossed II: Together for Eternity

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Nice work, Ranger. Seriously. I'm impressed, and growing to be more and more amused.

Less amusing is the fact that I would have probably concentrated on Mac today, and the 'wolves' took him away. Why are the 'wolves' killing off our lynch-fodder?

That's what's confusing me about this game- the Lovers are picking villagers who the village is likely to kill anyway. If they want to massacre us simply by numbers, why aren't they picking quiet unobtrusive villagers and letting us lynch our own loudmouths?

Unless this has to do with the growing threat of silent villagers. We have been saying that maybe it's best to lynch the quiet ones, so the Lovers are trying to take away easy targets from us to makes us more gullible?

I really have no idea.

PS- daylight saving's time makes me happy. My body says it's 9am. My clock says it's 8am. Woot.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

That's what's confusing me about this game- the Lovers are picking villagers who the village is likely to kill anyway. If they want to massacre us simply by numbers, why aren't they picking quiet unobtrusive villagers and letting us lynch our own loudmouths?

They are first and foremost after the other lovers - like we are after lovers in principle - so it looks like we all sadly think the same way and suspect more those who post a lot rather than trying blindly those quiet ones...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

They are first and foremost after the other lovers - like we are after lovers in principle - so it looks like we all sadly think the same way and suspect more those who post a lot rather than trying blindly those quiet ones...

Yeah, but if I was a Lover, I'd want to keep the other Lover pair around for a while to deflect suspicion from me. I can totally see your logic, it's just that it's not how I'd do it, you know? I'd want the other Lovers around to nuke the village and then I'd kill them later. There are pros and cons to either way (keeping the other Lovers alive makes for the risk of you dying at night, but lowers the risk of you being caught during the day).

And as with the others, I'm definitely curious what Rikae was on about yesterday. I take Mac's response of "always go for the greatest advantage. In a game, at any rate." this way: it seems like Rikae strongly thought she found something important. I mean, she said so, and that she didn't know what to do about it. Which makes me think it was information that could either help or hurt the village. If she thought she found a Lover, she would have said something obvious, I'm quite sure. I mean, she was Ordo, so she'd have no reason not to, unless Diamond isn't revealing the full nature of our roles when we die.

So I figure she must have thought she ran across a good guy role and didn't know whether or not she should point it out.

Which makes Mac's response make a lot of sense- if I was responding to that scenario, I'd say the same thing: "Wait for the opportune moment." So the question is, what did Rikae think she found, should we probe too deeply, and why did the wolves think Mac was too dangerous to keep around? And, about Mac- should we probe too deeply if this has to do with seeing things that could be dangerous for the village?

[A Little Green]

A list, since I've found out that lists are really a good way for me to get a picture of the village as a whole.

RED ZONE - suspicious
Gollum - Disagreeing with quite a lot of players, I think his behaviour indicates to a newbie wolf rather than a newbie innocent. Following other players' suspicions and/or suspecting others on very feeble grounds (especially his vote yesterDay was pretty horrible, really), being unhelpful and concentrating almost entirely on self-preservation strikes me more as a baddie.

YELLOW ZONE - somewhat suspicious, bears watching
Eomer - Smooth, calculating, posting little but seeming very active. I can't put my finger on it, but there's something that doesn't feel right with him. He's definitely someone who bears watching.

GREEN ZONE - innocentish
Aganzir - Has seemed very genuine throughout the game and makes reasonable points. No reason whatsoever to suspect her.
Nogrod - All in all seems quite innocent, though I disagree with him on quite many things. I was somewhat wary of him on Day 2, but his posting yesterDay seemed very much like an innocent Nogrod to me.
Brinniel - I guess she has been in my green zone throughout the game... But since she still hasn't given me any reason to suspect her, I suppose no can do.

NO IDEA -ZONE - sleeping under Rudolph the Red-nosed Reindeer...
Groin - Has really posted too little for me to make any conclusions about his role.
Sally - For some reason I have no read of her at all. Could be anything. I'll look at her if I have the time.
Shasta - See what I wrote about Sally - it's the same with Shasta.
Gwath - This guy, now, he could be about anything. No idea.
McCaber - The same problem as with Groin, though not as bad; there is too little to draw conclusions from.
Fea - I certainly want to look at her more closely if I have the time. Unlike the others on this zone, Fea seems both innocent and evil whereas the others seem neither. All in all, she baffles me.

To sum up, I'm worried about the size of my no idea -zone. Six people there, five in the others. Is the problem with me or with the village? Probably the former.

Is there anyone around except for me?


EDIT: x-ed with Fea: seemingly there is. Hello!

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Hey Greenie. Since we seem to be the only ones around, I hope you don't mind if I take a look at your suspicions and ponder how closely they match mine. I don't really have anything better to do at the moment...

I agree with the consensus that Gollum seems newbie-ish, but when I've wolved with newbies before, there's often been some sort of night-time coaching. Kind of a 'Get it together before you get us killed!' thing. I feel like if he was somebody's Lover, he'd be a bit more careful. But if he is, who do you think would be his Lover? I lean toward Brinniel because of her defense of his newbie-ishness, but that seems to easy. The best way to defend a cohort in the spotlight is to stay out of the way and hope some well-meaning innocent does the job for you. Maybe twitch a few puppet strings here and there, you know? Anyway, I lean toward Gollum being more newbie-innocent than newbie-Lover. I can be swayed on this one.

Eomer. Now he's creeptastic and manipulative. But he is whether or not he's a bad guy and I'm willing to go out on a dangerous limb and say that I see no reason why we should kill him. He stirs up trouble, yes, but he thinks a lot like me, I've noticed. He's the type that I'd like very much to keep around until the end, if you don't mind.

I definitely agree with you about Agan being innocentish. Noggin I'm not so sure. Have you ever noticed that thing where people who know a lot are a lot more capable of imagining more? Maybe that's not common knowledge. Anyway, I've mentioned it before- people who know what their roles are (beyond ordo) are more likely to be able to successfully imagine the roles of their peers. Agan? She's so settled on her thoughts about what people could be. Nog is more open to the fact that Diamond could be lying left and right, that we could have a bizillion baddies, that etctera. See what I mean? He feels innocentish, but I'm meta-paranoid. Brinn I already suggested as maybe-worrisome.

I'm totally with you on the NO IDEA -ZONE. Groin, Sally, Shasta, McCaber... I've got nothin'. Gwath feels innocentish, but I'm not sure why.

Fea - I certainly want to look at her more closely if I have the time. Unlike the others on this zone, Fea seems both innocent and evil whereas the others seem neither. All in all, she baffles me.

I know. I'm sorry. I'll explain when I can. It's just awkward.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Moving on, I'm not quite sure I like all these people with low post counts. Some of them just might not be thinking, but a few look like they're trying to hide something. I am spending valuable thought time on them, and sooner or later something will happen.

A rather hypocritical comment for you to be saying...considering you have the second lowest post count among the living.

[Aganzir]

Hey I'm back.

Originally Posted by Gollum

1) I am wary of three people.

2) Because you seem to think I give weak reasons for being wary.

If you are wary of someone I expect you to give valid reasons. If you're a wolf who wants to make someone look bad (maybe not even look, but just make people have a bad feeling about her they can't put their finger on), one of the easiest things to do is just say someone looks *insert something suspicious* for no real reason. Your reasons which I quoted here looked fabricated. You changed your opinion of Rikae right after it started to look she could be lynched on day 1.

Originally Posted by Gollum

3) Because I considered you excited.

NO - because you didn't tell me why it was that I looked excited. If you threaten to or actually vote me because of that, the least you should do is to elaborate. I still have no idea what makes me "too excited", and before I get some real reasons, I interpret it as in the underlined sentence up there.

Originally Posted by Gollum

4) Because I voted Lommy because I didn't trust her. I got the idea (now I may be wrong) from last game that it is better to vote than not. I had almost no grounds to vote anyone else, and I could have voted you.

You didn't trust her because she was a wolf in the last game! It has nothing to do with this one! If you suspected me more, why on earth didn't you vote for me? Maybe because Lommy was leading at that moment, and you wanted to ensure the lynching of someone who wasn't your lover?

Originally Posted by Gollum

5) Because I seem to be going with the flow of the other players.

You do.

Originally Posted by Gollum

If you consider me to be going with the other players, I ask you how anyone can do that since the range of opinions and suspicions is so wide and varied.

Arrrr this is the most evil response I've ever seen.
I am going to look through your posts again soonishly so as to sum up the posts before which I made my case. However, back then you conveniently changed your opinions as soon as it started to look somebody was suspected and might be lynched. I'm thinking about Rikae and Lommy mainly, and yes, also myself. If you don't give proper reasons for your suspicions, I have no reason, either, to think you have any reasons apart from getting someone else but yourself or your lover lynched.
Anyway as for your response, instead of admitting you go with the flow you try to say you're not doing it since it's not possible. Going with the flow doesn't mean you agree with everybody on everything - it means you agree surprisingly much with surprisingly many without giving yourself anything new to the discussion.

Originally Posted by Gollum

I see nothing wrong in considering you excited, being wary of 3 players, or of giving lame reasons for being wary (I mean, I didn't want to vote for those people).

I see very much wrong there if you have no reasons and refuse to give any when asked.

Originally Posted by Brinn

These attacks towards Gollum bother me. Some of what Gollum says is flawed, but they seem more like newbie mistakes. It just feels to me that he's an easy lynch target- a scapegoat. I'm uncomfortable voting for any easy lynch targets because most often they turn out innocent.

To me they don't. And if he was an easy lynch target, why isn't he dead already?
Brinn, are you Gollum's lover?

Brinniel just jumped from my Innocent list onto the Guilty one.

Originally Posted by Brinn on sally

though her chosen no-vote makes her slightly less suspicious. But only slightly.

"But only slightly" because you wanted to discourage people stopping to suspect her?

Originally Posted by Brinn on Rikae

Her defensiveness definitely bothers me. And now she has this "fine, lynch me" attitude...which seems like reverse psychology to me.

I think Rikae knows better than to think that works as reverse psychology in WW. She's been lynched for behaving "oddly" also earlier.

Brinn was I think the first to state she could vote Rikae, who was at that moment gaining quite a lot attention (and suspicion). Somehow I don't like her reasoning though.

Originally Posted by Brinn

--- She seems frustrated to the point where she's no longer making sense...but that could point to innocence or guilt. --- she's pulled this off before as a baddie and I don't want to fall for a bluff. ---

Because while I do have a bit of doubt, I worry that I'll later regret if I don't vote her. And anyway, simply knowing her role will give me a sigh of relief rather than just be left wondering..

It looks too apologetic and explanatory. Saying, "I would later regret it, I need to know for certain" is a way I've seen wolves excuse their vote a couple of times, and have done it myself as well. Somehow it's such an easy thing to say when you're a baddie and want to get an easy lynch but not look like you were after it.

I don't know what to think of Nog. I didn't like his fierce attacks on Mac and Rikae yesterday, but then on the other hand it was like 6.30 am here, and it's weekend, which might explain at least some of his aggressiveness.

Originally Posted by Gollum

All right I have to go to bed now. But taking these words from one who appears innocent, I vote:

++Rikae

Vote well!

Funny. To me Rikae and Mac looked more innocent than Nog at that point.
If they had voted well, they would have voted you.

Okay, as for today.

I wonder if Rikae thought I was the seer, or tried to make the baddies think so. There weren't that many posts she could have been referring to, and the way she treated me later (eg not really responding when I asked why she thought I was innocent) made me wonder. If she did try, she seems to have succeeded. Or then the baddies just figured I'm after them.

Originally Posted by Gwath

As we approached DL yesterDay, it seemed like Rikae knew something important and that she was giving Mac hints about it. I would guess that the lovers killed Mac out of fear that he might have figured out what it was she was talking about (though I still have no idea).

This sounds possible.

Originally Posted by Nog

Which brings me to the possibility I entertained yesterDay of there being four pairs but only two of them getting to make a kill at Night. Di may randomise it who gets to make a kill or they take turns or something...

Yes, I thought about it, too. But even if there were more than two pairs, we shouldn't be able to know the number. There might be three or so as well.
I wonder why Nog wasn't killed. Was it because the baddies who tried to kill him the night before didn't get a kill last night? I can't see why they would leave him be when he would certainly not be protected. Or did they figure they could get him lynched, or do they want to bluff? Or did they just decide they have bigger fish to fry (Mac & me)? Were we somehow more dangerous to them?

Also I'd like to point out that being protected makes no one a known innocent in this game. The baddies were turned from our doors, but they couldn't see if Nog or I were sleeping calmly inside or going around in our nightly business. Therefore I can't say I really like Nog's known innocent show yesterday.

Originally Posted by Nog

About lovers going for Aganzir and Mac I'd say they look like someone has been after a presumed rival baddie.

Why? Was I that suspicious-looking?

edit: xed with Greenie, Fea, McC & Brinn

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

To me they don't. And if he was an easy lynch target, why isn't he dead already?
Brinn, are you Gollum's lover?

No, I am not. And if I were, do you really think I would be so obvious?

Anyway, considering how wrong my assumptions of players have been so far, I probably should re-examine him.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

No, I am not. And if I were, do you really think I would be so obvious?

I'd rather not rule out any possibility.

Anyway I'm now working on a case on Gollum again and just came to see if there were any new posts.

[Aganzir]

My last case against him was made on day two. I link here the two posts where I accused him then: #241 and #259.

On day 3 he didn't post much (apparently because of problems in his net connection) and when he came back, he didn't have any idea as to who to vote. He said he'd read and be back with "a list of suspicions and things". So, he was back - saying he had no idea of Groin, Eomer, Cab, Greenie, Gwath, and Eönwë (though he also said there was not a great deal to worry about him). He wasn't sure about Rikae because of not knowing if she had been joking about Mac. The only one he considered innocent was... *trumpet fanfare*

Originally Posted by Gollum #350

Brinn.-now here I think we have innocence. Just from the aura of her posts, that is.

Gollum, if I was to vote for Brinn to be lynched today, how would you defend her to me? I need more solid reasons than "just the aura of her posts", as you might know by now.

Voted for Eönwë "to save himself". He had one vote whereas Eönwë had two, and I don't think anyone who was yet to vote then was considering voting Gollum. Rikae (whom he seemed to suspect more) had two as well, but Gollum apparently xed with the second vote for her despite there being no mention of it. However, I don't think he wrote his post in one minute.

On day 4 Gollum said he can't make up his mind since either the players are not around or he "can't accuse them of anything for want of evidence". He said he keeps one or two under observation but nothing more. Now, Gollum, who were/are these "one or two"? Usually you should say it aloud unless you have a good reason to be silent about it.
Also, did I understand it correctly that the "want of evidence" part actually means "I can't accuse anyone because they want me to give reasons for it"? Sorry but that's the way it goes. You can't expect an innocent person to be like "Oh, he thinks I'm suspicious because my avatar looks gay and my signature is taken from a political rock song. That's alright - he must be innocent as well since I admit those are indeed suspicious things!"
If you really suspect me, why would you give it up just because I tell you to give reasons for it? Do you know what that looks like? That you don't care who you suspect as long as it's someone you're not related to in any way.

He also said he didn't have time to search for my case against him. I think it was quite easily found there if you just bothered to read the thread. Did you read? No wonder you couldn't come up with anyone to suspect.
Believe it or not, it's actually allowed to read posts from the previous days as well.

When Gwath asked him why people should refrain from voting him if he doesn't bother to respond to their accusations, he said one objection is not enough for him to spend time on (he changed his mind a short while later though when Gwath commented on it). This looks more like lack of interest than being evil, to be honest. If Gollum's a baddie he might want to be more keen on defending himself. However, if he didn't read the thread, he might not even have known there was a case against him. On the other hand, he seems not to have had time for it then (12.37 am my time he said he'd probably have to start working), and he promised to do it later (02.23 am he replied to my accusations).

His response is treated with here.

He voted for Rikae, his reason being the following part in Nog's post (who, in his opinion, appeared innocent):

Originally Posted by Nog

That did it...

Rikae = a baddie
Macalaure = a baddie

But they are not on the same side. I quess Rikae's team is the one that was responsibole for the deaths of Lal and Kit and Mac's team killed Legate and tried to kill me. Unless there are two more teams which kind of makes this speculation anew... and which I believe in.

But that doesn't change the basic point: they both have made their mark and have been remarkably vocal toDay. The early voting compared with their increased activity after that is just one thing.

I think this was pretty bad reasoning on Nog's part. I dislike his certainty of Rikae & Mac's guilt and the way he instantly started speculating whose team killed whom.
However, what also worries me is that Gollum didn't mention at all that he voted for Rikae because he was leading on votes himself at that moment and also Rikae was a good lynching candidate. The way he voted looks too clean. Like he didn't want to bring any attention on the fact that he had votes as well.
Then he asked Nog what was wrong with taking his words as a basis for his vote since he couldn't make up his mind otherwise.

Now that I've done with this I can understand more easily why some of you said he looks like an innocent newbie. However, he still looks more like an evil newbie to me, and I'm up for voting him today as well.

I am experiencing a similar feeling as when painting - there's so much I should do but when I start on something, I won't have time for something else and in the end I always run out of time.

[Brinniel]

Groin: His carelessness towards the game makes me think he's most likely an ordo. And if he's not, it's not very fair to other players of the game.

Aganzir: I don't see anything terribly fishy about her. She's been consistent with her suspicions and her reasons behind suspecting Gollum are well grounded.

Gollum: His posts are short and don't contain much substance, and the ones that do are vague and flawed. It's definitely newbie behaviour, but I'm beginning to question whether it's innocent or evil newbie behaviour.

Nogrod: He's made a lot of errors so far, but it's not like the rest of us haven't. I just don't think he would've made such bold attacks against Rikae and acted to be so sure of his death if he were a lover.

Sally: She's posted a lot less than she normally does. Granted some of it's due to RL, but still. I've been somewhat suspecting her because of her strange behaviour and that she's been playing safely. But would an evil Sally be quieter, or would she be posting more?

Shasta: I suspected him at first, but I'm doubting my suspicions more and more. Mainly because he's been consistent and has not been playing as safe as some other players. Also, I beginning to agree with his supicions of McCaber.

Gwath: I don't why he keeps falling under my radar, but he still is. Looking at his posts, nothing really alarms me as suspicious...but at the same time, nothing in his posts make him look at all that innocent. So I just don't know.

McCaber: With the second least amount of posts, he has been quite submarine-ish...yet he keeps saying he suspects the players who have made few posts and are submarines. That really bothers me.

Fea: The fact that she doesn't say a whole lot about what she thinks of current living players and spends more time speculating about rules and past events does worry me.

Greenie: I'm having a lot of trouble getting a good read on her. She remains quite the mystery to me.

Eomer: Still seems calm and quiet. I don't know...for that reason, should I be suspicious?

Conclusion:

Suspicious
McCaber
Fea

Worried About
Gollum
Sally
Eomer

No Idea
Gwath
Greenie

Innocentish
Groin
Aganzir
Nogrod
Shasta

[Gollum the Great]

These quotes are from the Animated Lion:

Gollum, if I was to vote for Brinn to be lynched today, how would you defend her to me? I need more solid reasons than "just the aura of her posts", as you might know by now.

In all seriousness, I was merely saying what I thought of Brinn.

Voted for Eönwë "to save himself". He had one vote whereas Eönwë had two, and I don't think anyone who was yet to vote then was considering voting Gollum.

Pardon me. Eonwe and I were tied and I had been given my 2nd vote first, so next in line to be lynched.

On day 4 Gollum said he can't make up his mind since either the players are not around or he "can't accuse them of anything for want of evidence". He said he keeps one or two under observation but nothing more. Now, Gollum, who were/are these "one or two"? Usually you should say it aloud unless you have a good reason to be silent about it.

I kept the names to myself because the last time I said who I was wary of you made a big thing about it. And to be honest, I don't recall who I had in mind.

Also, did I understand it correctly that the "want of evidence" part actually means "I can't accuse anyone because they want me to give reasons for it"? Sorry but that's the way it goes. You can't expect an innocent person to be like "Oh, he thinks I'm suspicious because my avatar looks gay and my signature is taken from a political rock song. That's alright - he must be innocent as well since I admit those are indeed suspicious things!"

By want of evidence I meant there was nothing to suspect them about in the actual content of whatever they said.
And whose avvy and sig are you referring to?

If you really suspect me, why would you give it up just because I tell you to give reasons for it? Do you know what that looks like? That you don't care who you suspect as long as it's someone you're not related to in any way.

How did you get the idea I've stopped suspecting you? I don't remember saying I quit doing that.
And how many people agree with Agan that it looks like I don't care who I vote for? If it really does seem that I don't care, I'll try to at least make it seem that I'm interested (if I'm not lynched first). I do vote for those I think should be.

He also said he didn't have time to search for my case against him. I think it was quite easily found there if you just bothered to read the thread. Did you read? No wonder you couldn't come up with anyone to suspect.

Of course I didn't read through to find your argument. I said before that I had to work.

Believe it or not, it's actually allowed to read posts from the previous days as well.

There's no reason to be sarcastic.

When Gwath asked him why people should refrain from voting him if he doesn't bother to respond to their accusations, he said one objection is not enough for him to spend time on (he changed his mind a short while later though when Gwath commented on it). This looks more like lack of interest than being evil, to be honest. If Gollum's a baddie he might want to be more keen on defending himself. However, if he didn't read the thread, he might not even have known there was a case against him. On the other hand, he seems not to have had time for it then (12.37 am my time he said he'd probably have to start working), and he promised to do it later (02.23 am he replied to my accusations).

Now in this respect I really want to be believed. I am very much interested in this game (why would I have joined it otherwise? check the admin thread to see what thought of simply starting to play.).
Oh yes. I work bizarre hours sometimes.

He asked Nog what was wrong with taking his words as a basis for his vote since he couldn't make up his mind otherwise.

Hey! we're all allowed to play differently. Also, what was wrong with doing that?

[Aganzir]

Guess who's the worst person ever at going to sleep early.

Hey Cab, there were still two questions you didn't answer.

-voted Mac. Why?
day 4
-doesn't like all the people with low post counts - a few of them look like they're trying to hide something. Who?

Originally Posted by Gollum

These quotes are from the Animated Lion:

Love that nickname. Let's get married!

Originally Posted by Gollum

In all seriousness, I was merely saying what I thought of Brinn.

But if I don't see an aura of innocence about her posts, how would you elaborate on it?

Originally Posted by Gollum

I kept the names to myself because the last time I said who I was wary of you made a big thing about it. And to be honest, I don't recall who I had in mind.

Because your reasons back then seemed so false. But in the future that shouldn't be a reason to withhold your thoughts.

Originally Posted by Gollum

By want of evidence I meant there was nothing to suspect them about in the actual content of whatever they said.

Ahh sorry, I completely misinterpreted it. Although I know the word want means also lack, somehow I thought you meant "because they want me to explain why I suspect them".

Originally Posted by Gollum

And whose avvy and sig are you referring to?

Eomer's.
(Not really. My own. FYI, I don't use the word gay as an insult, being more or less one myself.)

Originally Posted by Gollum

How did you get the idea I've stopped suspecting you? I don't remember saying I quit doing that.

That was a conclusion reached in the misinterpreted part and therefore meaningless.

Originally Posted by Gollum

There's no reason to be sarcastic.

That's the same as if you said to Rikae that there's no reason to accuse people. It's my nature.

Originally Posted by Gollum

Hey! we're all allowed to play differently. Also, what was wrong with doing that?

You should never ever trust anyone in WW, except maybe seer-revealed innocents in a game with no twists, unlike this. In my opinion Nogrod's reasons you based your vote on where exceptionally bad and therefore it looks like you were just trying to justify a vote for Rikae.

You still didn't explain what exactly makes me look too excited, and I'd still like to hear it, though.

All in all, Gollum's response to me made me feel much better about him. If guilty, I would have expected him to be much more nervous by now - or then I have just underestimated him thus far.
Anyway, I'm not so sure anymore I'm going to vote him.

edit: xed since the beginning of this page

[Gwathagor]

My Reason
Aganzir - seems innocent
Gollum - seems innocent, maybe guilty
Nogrod - seems innocent
Brinniel - seems innocent
Fea - I think she's telling the truth and has some crazy role

My Intuition
Sally - I think that sally is playing it safe/quiet and is probably a lover
Shasta - I think the same thing about shasta
McCaber - the suspicions he expressed earlier did seem suspicious in terms of their timing, but I still feel far less suspicious of him than I do of the previous two

Nothing
Groin - I don't think he's been in once toDay
Eomer - I don't know
Greenie - I don't know