T-I-G LV Sing when you're winning

[Aganzir]

Ha I just realised I was at least right about something when listing phantom as neither guilty nor innocent yesterday.

Originally Posted by Mac

But Aganzir, we've been wolves together once: you know that, when evil, I give every effort to appear the exact same way I do when innocent...

I know! But they still remind me of wolfish you.
However from now on I promise to try to come up with some actual reasons for my suspicions because my gut suspicions against sally in last game were disastrous. (This doesn't mean I'd withdraw my Mac suspicions yet though.)

Originally Posted by Ilya

Bowie's doesn't seem intimidated by more experienced players, and since TP wasn't a huge subject of discussion on Day 1, aside from his cryptic playing with Fea, it might've seemed like as good a time as any to remove the threat.

I still fail to see your logic. Why wouldn't anyone else enjoy killing phantom then? Also his post today didn't help me understand his logic much (or well I understand it but I disagree with him). I'm not fond of deciding which is more important to kill first, cobbler of critics.

Originally Posted by tgwbs

Aganzir - Wild Man no understand why she vote so late. She present long before last-minute vote. Why late vote?

Because I didn't realise what time it was until 25 past. I was reading through the thread and trying to decide who to vote. Plus I always vote rather late if I'm around for deadline.

Originally Posted by tgwbs

Also, she should know not kill Nog day 1 for normal behaviour!

Nog behaves similarly enough when wolf so why should 'normal behaviour' make him innocent? I still think he was suspicious yesterday.

Originally Posted by Boro

May I ask Agan, did your involvement in your last game wear you down a bit?

I don't think so but school start certainly did. I'm a bit too tired to come up with anything original, and thus far I've only been able to be online a couple of hours when the day has started just to return two or three hours before deadline.

Originally Posted by Brinn on Mac

Probably the least suspicious of the Menel voters. His suspicions of him came from the beginning.

Yeah, in the beginning he said Menel was too careful. I didn't think so so I can't right away see where he was coming from. His own vote was rather easy.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Did you quts really think Noggie was the divo?

(I'm laughing at that Brinn qut)

Sorry Boro I won't duel you at least for now.

Originally Posted by Boro

And my question for you three is why did you snowball it?

Because I didn't like it. It looked like Nog was provoking Gwath to incriminate himself.

I don't like Gollum getting votes today. It's too easy.

See? I have this little to say.

Besides I have no idea who I will vote today.

Sorry I'm just so tired. I'll try to do something useful.

edit: xed with phantom

[Boromir88]

In these sorts of situations I generally take a blind shot at a submarine.~tp

Usually I would say that's playing it safe, and to win you can't footsy around, you have to go for the juggular. But this time I will agree, we have a couple more assets (and thus more people we don't want to lynch). Also, I remember the big downfall for the wolves in The Republic was the unexpected surprise in the lynching of a submarine - The Ka. That opened the door of you and I to make our moves.

So, in this set up, at this time, I say safe route is a good choice to go.

That should be a bit of comfort to those of you who fear Fea or Boro- if they aren't Critics then they'll be Night killed rather soon.

Come on tp, don't spill out all my plans! I have always been a good keeper of yours, or at least I hope I have.

*Note: By me saying this now lets see what the Critics will make of this little move. Walk in, I dare 'em.

[the guy who be short]

Wild Man say: if must lynch "submarine", better lynch Shasta than Gollum. As Wild Man say, kill Gollum seem foolish without reason other than "he absent".

[Mithalwen]

Fea darling. Cobbler is a SPY. Walter si not in a trance. Dead drop means he has no direct contact with critics. Of course he knows what he saw...

As for Soulmate.. I refer you to my previous statement ...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Walter si not in a trance.

*imagines him walking like a zombie*

Hmm am I right in assuming that there's still 40 minutes till deadline? Only three people have voted thus far.

If I can't come up with good enough reasons to justify a vote for someone, I'm probably going to go with someone quiet. You can take it as a revenge for last game.

edit: xed with Boro

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Fea darling. Cobbler is a SPY. Walter si not in a trance. Dead drop means he has no direct contact with critics. Of course he knows what he saw...

As for Soulmate.. I refer you to my previous statement ...

Yes ma'am. I shall stop obsessing now.

Need to see who I've cross-posted with and think...

[Lariren Shadow]

Vote count:
Gollum - 2 (Brinn, Sally)
Ilya - 2 (Kath, Mac)
Fea - 1 (tgwbs)

Still deciding on my vote and slightly rethinking Ilya based on what Agan said(because she did post before you, Mac)

x-posted with Agan changing the vote count.

[Aganzir]

There's what, 16 of us alive and only seven votes cast a few minutes before deadline...

Mith is there a modfire for non-posters/voters?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Wild Man say: if must lynch "submarine", better lynch Shasta than Gollum. As Wild Man say, kill Gollum seem foolish without reason other than "he absent".

I agree. Unless Gollum goes Gil-absent, it seems silly to vote for him today. Particularly because there are others I find significantly more concerning.

Concerned

Boro
Ilya
Gwath

Leaning innocent

Lari
Brinn
sally
tgwbs
Mac

Need more to go on

phantom
Kath
Shasta
Bowie
Gollum
Cailineomer
Agan

I intend to vote for Gwath (due to his defensive behavior against all things, and due to the fact that there's nobody on my list I'd rather vote for).

I'm forgetting somebody on that list. Who am I forgetting?

[Lariren Shadow]

Sally: Has had suspicions thrown at her since Day 1. I’m entirely not sure where these are coming from. Seems innocent enough going through Day 1. Nothing much more and seems innocent enough.

Fea: When I started this list she hadn’t posted a lot, but then did. Is seriously good at playing this game and I'm not sure what to think about her. I'm beginning to suspect something about her though and leaning towards the guilty part.

Ilya: Has been very helpful in posting all of the comments about the voting. Leads me to suspect innocence. It just doesn't feel like something someone who was guilty would do.

Brinn: Has not given me anything to suspect. All of her votes have been clearly explained and well thought out.

Kath: Am pretty sure is innocent as well.

Agan: Has a voice of reason and picks up on things. I’m not sure what to think about her other than she’s good at the game. I don’t really think she is a critic but I wouldn’t be surprised if she was one.

Gwath: Can not get a real good reading on him. I think I'm leaning towards more innocent than anything else, but I'm going to keep my eye on him.

Shasta: Am still suspicious of from yesterday. I might take TGWBS's advice on the submarine vote, but actually leaning away from it. Shasta hasn't said anything today, while it could be a good critic ploy, from what I've heard and seen it doesn't feel like that.

Strongbow: Hasn’t said much today but justified lack of vote. But gives me suspicions because of this comment “it's easier to spot that dodgy, flighty behavior on Day 2 or even Day 3.” Going by that logic then we should be looking at him. Given the whole not showing up or posting thing. Am suspicious of him as well.

Mac: Said this “Mac: Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.” It gives me the impression of something sinister. Singling himself out from the rest of us. It just rubs me the wrong. Add this with the whole Menel voting thing and it makes me sense a critic. I think I’m going to lean towards voting for Mac tonight.

Gollum: Hasn’t posted at all toDay. I’m not sure what’s going on with him. Brinn mentioned RL stuff so that would make sense but, well, still not here. There is a part of me that wants to be like Brinn and vote him off based on the whole no show thing. But its a very small part.

TGWBS: Should be kept for entertainment value. Plus I really see nothing that he's said that hasn't made sense or was sneaky.

Boro: Has been active and a voice of reason about looking at the votes. I'm not going to fall for his whole "the phantom gave my plan" thing because I don't think he's a wolf. Plus its too obvious for him to do that.

Cailin: Hasn’t said that much but at least did show up today. Seems innocent enough though. Showed up while making the list. Still seems innocent.

Guilty:
Shasta
Mac

Leaning towards up to something/possibly guilty:
Fea
Agan
Gollum

Leaning towards innocent:
Gwath
Ilya
Boro
Cailin

Innocent:
Sally
Brinn
Kath
TGWBS

Have no idea who's side he's on:
OG

Probably will be x-posted with everyone. Huh, I didn't.

[Macalaure]

Some thoughts on Ilya, who recently rised in my suspicions.

Compare #195 to #223: First she doesn't know where the Nogrod case came from, then she says other people put suspicions against Nogrod (and Menel) in her mind and thus keeps herself out of the vote-fray. Also, first she considers voting Gollum for his case against Strongbow, then she votes Strongbow herself.

Today, while I appreciate all the work she put into all her quote-collections, I'm a bit unhappy with it because there's not much of her own opinions, which I consider more helpful about summary-posts than the summary. She does give her opinions later, but they are kind of simplistic putting-into-boxes like.

In #324 she defends Gwath in a not too convincing manner, which, since I'm suspicious of Gwath, makes me suspicious of her, too. There's also her point against me, which does not make a lot of sense, as Boro remarked, too.

If Ilya should be evil, I think a close look at Brinn might be justified - there seems to be a connection.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Ilya: Has been very helpful in posting all of the comments about the voting. Leads me to suspect innocence. It just doesn't feel like something someone who was guilty would do.

And that's why, if guilty, she'd be doing it.

Originally Posted by Lari

Mac: Said this “Mac: Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.” It gives me the impression of something sinister. Singling himself out from the rest of us.

That was a good way of saying it because it indeed looks like what he's doing. I just don't remember him being like that as an innocent (which doesn't mean he couldn't be, though - good as it is, even my memory has its limits).

edit: xed since Boro. Yeah I know but still.

[Kath]

Hi all, sorry for my late arrival but it is the end of the working week and apparently it wore me out as I've just woken up from an unexpected nap! As a result this is going to be a little rushed.

So, let's have a quick look at what people have been doing:

Boro - thought looking at who might want to kill phantom would give clues as to who the critics might be, I personally believe the list would include everyone except Boro and Fea and so doesn't do us much good! Pretty much accuses sally. Carries on with his suspicion of sally, saying that her just out of time retract could have been carefully designed to be just out of time - I think that's grasping at straws really, especially given that it was Day 1 and no one knew how strict Mith was going to be about the deadline.

Lariren - I'm still inclined to leave her be. I think she's doing pretty well so far with keeping up with this madness and she doesn't look particularly suspicious either.

Ilya - says Agan and Lariren started the suspicions against Nog. Has done nothing but post quotes. Now that can be helpful, but not when we get none of her own comments in there. Did post with her thoughts, but there is some really odd reasoning behind them. Why would killing phantom be something Strongbow would want to do over anyone else? If Lariren was 'just kind of agreeing' and then changed direction then why is that suspicious? It just feels suspicious. What was that about a 48 Day, as we didn't have one the Day before why would she assume it?

Gwath - strange that I am less happy with him when he isn't oddly abrasive! The comment that caught my attention was only a response to phantom's role revelation though.

Mac - takes back his voting for Menel. It feels innocent.

Agan - can't work out why everyone is so appalled by the fact that people voted for Nog. I'm with her a bit on that, he was a bit suspicious yesterDay, the way he reacted to what Gwath said was odd. I can see where a case against him would spring from.

Brinn - says about the same as Agan actually, as well as mentioning the very fair point that actually Menel was lynched at the same time and we can get information from that as well.

Strongbow - explains his reasoning for the Day 2 Cobbler comment. Why would the Cobbler be more likely to accidentally give himself away on any Day?

Cailin - her apology, well it feels innocent, but I wish she had spent more of the post talking about her theories on toDay rather than just apologising.

Ah I'm out of time and haven't really finished. I also want to say that I think Fea is too quiet and I do share some of tgwbs' suspicions.

Right now I think Ilya and Boro seem the most suspicious, though I'm not convinced about Boro.

++ILYA

I'd like to have gone through a bit more thoroughly but from what I've seen so far I think that posting all the quotes and the voting tally is trying to look helpful while actually not being and that the reasoning behind her suspicions seems very odd.

[Kath]

Have just seen Fea's posts that says the deadline is quarter past. Bah.

[Boromir88]

Vote count:

Gollum - 2 (Brinn, Sally)
Fea - 1 (tgwbs)
Ilya - 1 (Kath)

[Aganzir]

Kath some day I'm going to kill you for posting long posts so near to deadline.

I think Mac's points against Ilya were reasonable but I'm still suspicious of Mac. I was planning to go through his posts but got distracted. I'll do it tomorrow then.

[Kath]

Kath some day I'm going to kill you for posting long posts so near to deadline.

I'm sorry Agan! One day I will learn to start them more than 20 minutes before the deadline.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lari

Ilya: Has been very helpful in posting all of the comments about the voting. Leads me to suspect innocence. It just doesn't feel like something someone who was guilty would do.

Some do. Brinn did. Roa did. It's little effort if it makes people think you're innocent and you get by on it for a few days - and maybe the whole game.

Originally Posted by Lari

Mac: Said this “Mac: Yeesh... once I have to vote early and believe that you auditioners are smart enough to not do something terribly foolish, and then that.” It gives me the impression of something sinister. Singling himself out from the rest of us. It just rubs me the wrong. Add this with the whole Menel voting thing and it makes me sense a critic. I think I’m going to lean towards voting for Mac tonight.

I'm sorry if it sounded like I was singling myself out. That line was actually half-joking. *needs to use more smileys*

Haha, now I see Agan's post where she picked the same quotes... sadly, with a bit of a different comment...

Originally Posted by Fea

Mac, you're my hero, it was Ilya's quotes that set me off.

I'll explain soon.

Do, please.


crossed since Kath

[Macalaure]

I sense the danger of a last-minute bandwaggon against me, but since I can retract my vote if necessary, I'll vote now:

++Ilya

Clearly my top suspect right now, and there seems to be an actual chance to lynch her today, so no reason to hesitate for me.

[Boromir88]

I would prefer Ilya, Gollum, or Cailin, over Strongbow, sally, or Shasta, as far as submarines.

I wouldn't call Kath, Lari or Gwath submarines, because a submarine implies not only quietness but suspicion. Kath, Lari, and Gwath I think we could continue to expect consistent participation, and I see no reason to believe them wolves.

Out of the ones I've listed above then. Like Kath and Gwath, I think we could expect the participation (how much of it they are able to give) from Strongbow, Shasta, and sally. I just don't have the innocent vibe from them, like I do from Kath and Gwath. More like an indifferent.

I think Ilya is more likely to be a wolf than the other two I mentioned in the first sentence. It's arguable as to whether she's really submarine though, because she's posted the most out of them, but she's a submarine in the sense that she's going rather unnoticed.

As helpful as her quoting has been, it scares me, because it reminds me of so much of Brinn's strategy in The Republic. She did admit that's what she thought when posting, but I'm still not convinced she's entirely innocent. Also, I'm scratching my head as to what she saw from me to suspect Mac. Maybe it was from yesterday? The "oh and what Boro said about you too" is just - well suspicious.

On the flip side, Ilya would probably be the riskiest choice, and that is she will be participating more so than the other submarines. But, her behavior today seems to fit more with a Cobbler who could be posting a bunch of stuff and really not say anything about it. Plus saying some things that really don't make sense. Or a critic who saw how successful Brinn was with this strategy and tried the same.

Cailin I'm not sure what to say, definitely a submarine, some questions, but not the most suspicious and really not all the suspicious. Just kind of hidden in the crowd.

Gollum would probably be the safest choice to go, also I have no idea what to expect as far as participation wise. This kind of approach I highly doubt would be a gifted, and I doubt would be a critics, we'd be probably be lynching an ordo, and playing it safe to avoid a disastrous decision.

Edit: crossed with everyone since last post

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boromir88 on Ilya

She did admit that's what she thought when posting, but I'm still not convinced she's entirely innocent.

I think it's a part of her playing style to admit it if she's doing suspicious things so I wouldn't use it as an argument for nor against her guilt.

I wouldn't like to vote Gollum because he hasn't posted much yet. Then again last (& only) time I played with him he didn't post much anyway. I wouldn't like to vote Shasta either as he can be really helpful if he just has time. I'd rather vote Ilya than Bowie although voting either of them would feel unfair as I don't have much of an idea about them. I could vote sally but it'd feel unfair too, given last game. Of Cailineomer I really don't know.

I don't think you're forgetting anyone Fea.

edit: xed with Lari & Fea

[Boromir88]

I'd rather vote Ilya than Bowie although voting either of them would feel unfair as I don't have much of an idea about them. I could vote sally but it'd feel unfair too, given last game.~Agan

All is fair in love and WW. Someone's got to be it, nothing's personal.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Most excellent- I didn't realize deadline wasn't until quarter after, which means I have a few minutes to check my notes before posting (leave work at one, get home ish 1:05, look to see what it was I was thinking before I ADD'ed out around 11:23, post vote before 1:15). I apologize in advance that I'm running late on this. I was totally on top of things until um... actually, I don't want to admit that my boy distracted me.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Mac, you're my hero, it was Ilya's quotes that set me off.

I'll explain soon.

[Aganzir]

Guilty
sally. No she isn't a top suspect, I'm just copying the names in the order they are on Mith's list. She's been playing rather conveniently and I want to go through her posts to form a proper opinion.
Fea. I'm wary of her. The questions concerning phantom and cobbler tgwbs quoted in #329 were something a critic Fea could say.
Mac. I'm not feeling very confident but he's my top suspect right now. I'm planning to go through his posts at some point.
tgwbs. Probably because I so often find that my opinion is the complete opposite to his. I wouldn't be surprised if either Fea or him was a wolf.

Innocent
Lari is leaning innocent. Her analysis was nice.
Brinn. I'm agreeing with her scarily much given how much I often disagree with her. Anyway she's the one I'm feeling the most comfortable with for the time being.
Boro is another one I'm feeling quite good about now.

Neither
Ilya. I don't understand her logic concerning Bowie and why he'd kill phantom, and I also can't see why she was less suspicious of him after knowing why he didn't vote. Why is not voting suspicious in the first place? Apart from that I don't know, except that she suspected me.
Kath is slipping under my radar.
Gwath. Hmm I think he's rather innocentish but right now I can't remember anything he has said, apart from he & Nog's quarrel yesterday.
Shasta is nowhere to be seen.
Bowie. I don't like to make any plans as for which baddie is more important to find first and therefore his concentrating on it yesterday seems odd to me. Apart from that there's quite little to go on.
Gollum is nowhere to be seen.
Cailineomer. Too little to go on.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Also, you didn't exactly share what you thought of this "Saving Private Nogrod" act. Perhaps you stated your opinions elsewhere, but I'm not going to bother looking again through your posts at this hour.

A couple of persons were uncomfortable with lynching Nogrod and voted/retracted in order to save him. While a critic might do so to make himself look good henceforth, given that Nogrod was an ordo, I think trying to save him was an innocent affair. Too bad Menel had to suffer for it.

Originally Posted by Sally

Yes, and you're brilliant at it. Too brilliant, in fact, and from being your partner before I know just how dangerous you can be, little mister.

Originally Posted by tgwbs

However, Wild Man think unwise vote Gollum. Currently, suspicion of Gollum base on lack of input, which poor reason Day 2.

Wild man = Wise man.