Tol-in-Gaurhoth LVII - Chess Game for Middle Earth: Game Thread - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Rikae · 02-27-2009, 09:33 PM

Sally, you're forgetting a couple things:

If we lynch Izzy toDay, and neither of us manages to kill a baddie toNight, the village will *still* be half evil toMorrow.

Secondly, any of those innocents you mention has a 25% chance of being the cobbler, so wherever you have an innocent or two (or three) dying, consider the chance of the cobbler dying accordingly

Third, Dury (or whichever of the four we're considering) has a 50% chance of being evil.

Fourth, even with you, me, and two baddies alive, the game's not over, since we can both hunt. If we hunt correctly, it would be tied (actually pretty cool, probably a first in WW history).

Fifth, the baddies are not working together. Odds of 3/3, I think, *don't* mean the game is over. Actually, I'm going to have to go check that now - I'm not sure what the rules say about that.

satansaloser2005 · 02-27-2009, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sally, you're forgetting a couple things:

If we lynch Izzy toDay, and neither of us manages to kill a baddie toNight, the village will *still* be half evil toMorrow.

Secondly, any of those innocents you mention has a 25% chance of being the cobbler, so wherever you have an innocent or two (or three) dying, consider the chance of the cobbler dying accordingly

Third, Dury (or whichever of the four we're considering) has a 50% chance of being evil.

Fourth, even with you, me, and two baddies alive, the game's not over, since we can both hunt. If we hunt correctly, it would be tied (actually pretty cool, probably a first in WW history).

Fifth, the baddies are not working together. Odds of 3/3, I think, *don't* mean the game is over. Actually, I'm going to have to go check that now - I'm not sure what the rules say about that.

You have a point. I'm taking this from a 'baddies equal goodies' perspective, which I'm guessing is actually incorrect. Sorry, different style of game than I'm used to so my calculations are....well, cracked out.

Rikae · 02-27-2009, 09:49 PM

Ok, I went and looked at the rules, and didn't find anything. I never heard of a werebear counting as a wolf, but in this chess setup it might.

Getting the werebear now is our best chance... and if we don't get the other wolf, Izzy will be protected toNight (and maybe even toMorrow

). But I see where you're coming from, Sally. I'm just the sort of person who prefers the risk with the bigger payoff over the "safe" route that leaves us with no leads. But I could vote for Izzy if needed.

Rikae · 02-27-2009, 09:53 PM

What I mean by "maybe even toMorrow" is that the black knight might be able to protect her during the Day.

Brinn is looking cobblerish now, which makes me more confident about Durie.

satansaloser2005 · 02-27-2009, 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

What I mean by "maybe even toMorrow" is that the black knight might be able to protect her during the Day.

Brinn is looking cobblerish now, which makes me more confident about Durie.

Very true. The Night bit, that is. I need to look at a few things here in a bit.

Rikae · 02-27-2009, 09:56 PM

By the way, Sally, what does the text under your avvie say? My eyes aren't so good.

satansaloser2005 · 02-27-2009, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

By the way, Sally, what does the text under your avvie say? My eyes aren't so good.

Ah. It says "Ickle Phantom kills you nao", with "kthnxbye" written under it.

Brinniel · 02-27-2009, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally

C'mon, Brinn, talk. I'd love to hear some specific theories.

Okay, this is what I think.

Rikae and Fea are Black pieces of some sort, the problem is that I don't know which. I'm kinda wondering if Rikae might be the Black Bishop, but I'm not sure about that. I doubt she's the BQ though, as I don't think a werebear would risk a fake reveal, especially when they're not in danger.

Sally is innocent.

According to Kath's dreams, phantom is a pawn of some sort, but we can't know whether it's black or white.

Brinniel · 02-27-2009, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally

Assuming that Rikae's telling the truth, Izzy's the black bishop

That's the problem: you are assuming she is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally

I'm still not discounting the fact that you (Brinn) may be guilty.

*sigh* I've been trying to help and hint at you for the past two Days, Sally, but you're just making things worse. You're the only one I know is innocent, so we really need to be on the same page here.

satansaloser2005 · 02-27-2009, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brinniel

That's the problem: you are assuming she is.

*sigh* I've been trying to help and hint at you for the past two Days, Sally, but you're just making things worse. You're the only one I know is innocent, so we really need to be on the same page here.

Well....let's consider this....

I've had you on my suspicion list since shortly after the game started and it hasn't changed. I've mentioned you as guilty in nearly every post and yet never voted you. Does this or does this not tell you something?

Tells you nothing? Good.

++Durie

satansaloser2005 · 02-27-2009, 09:47 PM

C'mon, Brinn, talk. I'd love to hear some specific theories.

02-27-2009, 09:47 PM	#11
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	C'mon, Brinn, talk. I'd love to hear some specific theories. __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.

02-27-2009, 09:33 PM	#1
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Sally, you're forgetting a couple things: If we lynch Izzy toDay, and neither of us manages to kill a baddie toNight, the village will still be half evil toMorrow. Secondly, any of those innocents you mention has a 25% chance of being the cobbler, so wherever you have an innocent or two (or three) dying, consider the chance of the cobbler dying accordingly Third, Dury (or whichever of the four we're considering) has a 50% chance of being evil. Fourth, even with you, me, and two baddies alive, the game's not over, since we can both hunt. If we hunt correctly, it would be tied (actually pretty cool, probably a first in WW history). Fifth, the baddies are not working together. Odds of 3/3, I think, don't mean the game is over. Actually, I'm going to have to go check that now - I'm not sure what the rules say about that.

02-27-2009, 09:49 PM	#3
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Ok, I went and looked at the rules, and didn't find anything. I never heard of a werebear counting as a wolf, but in this chess setup it might. Getting the werebear now is our best chance... and if we don't get the other wolf, Izzy will be protected toNight (and maybe even toMorrow ). But I see where you're coming from, Sally. I'm just the sort of person who prefers the risk with the bigger payoff over the "safe" route that leaves us with no leads. But I could vote for Izzy if needed.

02-27-2009, 09:53 PM	#4
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	What I mean by "maybe even toMorrow" is that the black knight might be able to protect her during the Day. Brinn is looking cobblerish now, which makes me more confident about Durie.

02-27-2009, 09:56 PM	#6
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	By the way, Sally, what does the text under your avvie say? My eyes aren't so good.