Tol-in-Gaurhoth LVII - Chess Game for Middle Earth: Game Thread - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Rikae · 02-27-2009, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Rikae, if you don't get killed toNight (and I don't either) odds are there will be two innocent lynches, right?

Sorry, poor phrasing. What I mean is....if the baddies target two other people, we're down two innocents with no chance of catching a baddie.

How confident are you that you can find one of the other baddies in your next pick?

In other words, I'd rather get a baddie out of the way for sure, mostly because of numbers.

In even other words, I think I'd prefer Izzy most of all. Give me your thoughts.

Hmm...

If they don't target either of us, Wilwa and Phantom would be the likely kills.
I do have the ability to dream, so my odds of finding another baddie are pretty good, I think. I may hunt, or I may dream. At any rate, in your scenario toMorrow we'd be looking at a group of three in which there are two baddies, and the other baddie will be known.

Rikae · 02-27-2009, 08:50 PM

Fea, how can you retract when you haven't already voted, eh? Tricksy...

Rikae · 02-27-2009, 08:51 PM

Gah - never mind, you did. And I just posted that.

Rikae · 02-27-2009, 09:33 PM

Sally, you're forgetting a couple things:

If we lynch Izzy toDay, and neither of us manages to kill a baddie toNight, the village will *still* be half evil toMorrow.

Secondly, any of those innocents you mention has a 25% chance of being the cobbler, so wherever you have an innocent or two (or three) dying, consider the chance of the cobbler dying accordingly

Third, Dury (or whichever of the four we're considering) has a 50% chance of being evil.

Fourth, even with you, me, and two baddies alive, the game's not over, since we can both hunt. If we hunt correctly, it would be tied (actually pretty cool, probably a first in WW history).

Fifth, the baddies are not working together. Odds of 3/3, I think, *don't* mean the game is over. Actually, I'm going to have to go check that now - I'm not sure what the rules say about that.

satansaloser2005 · 02-27-2009, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Sally, you're forgetting a couple things:

If we lynch Izzy toDay, and neither of us manages to kill a baddie toNight, the village will *still* be half evil toMorrow.

Secondly, any of those innocents you mention has a 25% chance of being the cobbler, so wherever you have an innocent or two (or three) dying, consider the chance of the cobbler dying accordingly

Third, Dury (or whichever of the four we're considering) has a 50% chance of being evil.

Fourth, even with you, me, and two baddies alive, the game's not over, since we can both hunt. If we hunt correctly, it would be tied (actually pretty cool, probably a first in WW history).

Fifth, the baddies are not working together. Odds of 3/3, I think, *don't* mean the game is over. Actually, I'm going to have to go check that now - I'm not sure what the rules say about that.

You have a point. I'm taking this from a 'baddies equal goodies' perspective, which I'm guessing is actually incorrect. Sorry, different style of game than I'm used to so my calculations are....well, cracked out.

Rikae · 02-27-2009, 09:49 PM

Ok, I went and looked at the rules, and didn't find anything. I never heard of a werebear counting as a wolf, but in this chess setup it might.

Getting the werebear now is our best chance... and if we don't get the other wolf, Izzy will be protected toNight (and maybe even toMorrow

). But I see where you're coming from, Sally. I'm just the sort of person who prefers the risk with the bigger payoff over the "safe" route that leaves us with no leads. But I could vote for Izzy if needed.

Rikae · 02-27-2009, 09:53 PM

What I mean by "maybe even toMorrow" is that the black knight might be able to protect her during the Day.

Brinn is looking cobblerish now, which makes me more confident about Durie.

Brinniel · 02-27-2009, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally

C'mon, Brinn, talk. I'd love to hear some specific theories.

Okay, this is what I think.

Rikae and Fea are Black pieces of some sort, the problem is that I don't know which. I'm kinda wondering if Rikae might be the Black Bishop, but I'm not sure about that. I doubt she's the BQ though, as I don't think a werebear would risk a fake reveal, especially when they're not in danger.

Sally is innocent.

According to Kath's dreams, phantom is a pawn of some sort, but we can't know whether it's black or white.

Brinniel · 02-27-2009, 09:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally

Assuming that Rikae's telling the truth, Izzy's the black bishop

That's the problem: you are assuming she is.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sally

I'm still not discounting the fact that you (Brinn) may be guilty.

*sigh* I've been trying to help and hint at you for the past two Days, Sally, but you're just making things worse. You're the only one I know is innocent, so we really need to be on the same page here.

satansaloser2005 · 02-27-2009, 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brinniel

That's the problem: you are assuming she is.

*sigh* I've been trying to help and hint at you for the past two Days, Sally, but you're just making things worse. You're the only one I know is innocent, so we really need to be on the same page here.

Well....let's consider this....

I've had you on my suspicion list since shortly after the game started and it hasn't changed. I've mentioned you as guilty in nearly every post and yet never voted you. Does this or does this not tell you something?

Tells you nothing? Good.

++Durie

satansaloser2005 · 02-27-2009, 09:47 PM

C'mon, Brinn, talk. I'd love to hear some specific theories.

Feanor of the Peredhil · 02-27-2009, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Fea, how can you retract when you haven't already voted, eh? Tricksy...

I voted at like... dawn. I was at work this morning.

Seriously. Way at the beginning of the day. I voted, then said Dury had to defend herself.

NM. You noticed.

satansaloser2005 · 02-27-2009, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hmm...

If they don't target either of us, Wilwa and Phantom would be the likely kills.
I do have the ability to dream, so my odds of finding another baddie are pretty good, I think. I may hunt, or I may dream. At any rate, in your scenario toMorrow we'd be looking at a group of three in which there are two baddies, and the other baddie will be known.

My point exactly. Ideally, and this is THE ideal because it can't happen, we could PM during the Night, but since you've not dreamt me this isn't going to happen. The only reason I would have suggested that is because I would know whether to hunt player X. That didn't make a lick of sense, did it? Blah.

Basically if we kill an innocent toDay the game's over. Our best bet is Izzy, as it's the only guarantee.

By the way, come Night fall I'll tell you all who I'm hunting. I think.

02-27-2009, 09:47 PM	#11
satansaloser2005 The Sweetest Spoiler Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly Posts: 5,789	C'mon, Brinn, talk. I'd love to hear some specific theories. __________________ "My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.

02-27-2009, 08:50 PM	#2
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Fea, how can you retract when you haven't already voted, eh? Tricksy...

02-27-2009, 08:51 PM	#3
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Gah - never mind, you did. And I just posted that.

02-27-2009, 09:33 PM	#4
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Sally, you're forgetting a couple things: If we lynch Izzy toDay, and neither of us manages to kill a baddie toNight, the village will still be half evil toMorrow. Secondly, any of those innocents you mention has a 25% chance of being the cobbler, so wherever you have an innocent or two (or three) dying, consider the chance of the cobbler dying accordingly Third, Dury (or whichever of the four we're considering) has a 50% chance of being evil. Fourth, even with you, me, and two baddies alive, the game's not over, since we can both hunt. If we hunt correctly, it would be tied (actually pretty cool, probably a first in WW history). Fifth, the baddies are not working together. Odds of 3/3, I think, don't mean the game is over. Actually, I'm going to have to go check that now - I'm not sure what the rules say about that.

02-27-2009, 09:49 PM	#6
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	Ok, I went and looked at the rules, and didn't find anything. I never heard of a werebear counting as a wolf, but in this chess setup it might. Getting the werebear now is our best chance... and if we don't get the other wolf, Izzy will be protected toNight (and maybe even toMorrow ). But I see where you're coming from, Sally. I'm just the sort of person who prefers the risk with the bigger payoff over the "safe" route that leaves us with no leads. But I could vote for Izzy if needed.

02-27-2009, 09:53 PM	#7
Rikae Mellifluous Maia Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth Posts: 3,489	What I mean by "maybe even toMorrow" is that the black knight might be able to protect her during the Day. Brinn is looking cobblerish now, which makes me more confident about Durie.