Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Aganzir]

Brinn's first post is slightly unnerving. I don't know why. Her first posts always are.

I'm watching Kuru.

Kent who is in your avatar? He looks almost exactly like a guy I went to school with.

Nog looks quite innocentish. Or rather, genuinely helpful. It's impossible to say anything concrete yet, though.

Originally Posted by Nogz

But yes I will... later on the Day. In case someone actually starts talking, that is.

Form talked about Day -1 behaviour. I assume you're not going to analyze that?

Firefoot I'm fine with bonus votes being saved for later. But that means everyone, or at least most of us, should do it. I don't want a situation to occur where there are a few people with almost all and some with almost no votes left.

Originally Posted by Kent

99.9% certainty we won't get a wolf, but we would avoid taking the bigger cost in lynching someone in Alonariel's place.

No - we get a baddie (ie wolf or cobbler) with 23.5% certainty. And actually it's even more likely since their behaviour can give them away.
I can't say I really like your suggestion. The result of today's lynch is a part of the information we will have tomorrow, and it reveals more if we don't take the easy route and kill a non-show. Or well it's also that you suggested it so early and in that way.

Hmm almost 24 hours have passed and four people haven't spoken yet. Do you Elmira people have any idea about Alonariel?

Some things about the rules.

Gríma doesn't have a way to communicate with the baddies in private, but his ability to make gifteds fall ill makes him more dangerous than a normal cobbler. That's why I think it's as important to find him as the wolves. Also, the seer can't find him and should keep in mind that one of her known innocents might in fact be the cobbler.

I wonder why Elrond & others decided to send Pippin here. He doesn't seem to be aiding us.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here and reading... I mean, processing the events of the day.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Hmm almost 24 hours have passed and four people haven't spoken yet. Do you Elmira people have any idea about Alonariel?

Lari should be yelling at her as we speak.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Fea

probably going to vote for Brinn because I'll never know her alignment, and I'd rather be safe than sorry.

But you always vote for me on Day One. Why not try something a little less predictable?

[Gwathagor]

I was thinking I would have to vote now, but I see that Day 1 is 36 hours, so NEVER MIND.

I, like Aganzir, disagree with Kent's fatalism regarding our chances of finding a wolf toDay. That kind of attitude effectively ruins any chance that we do have of lynching a wolf toDay - and it does occasionally happen. Kent says let the wolves make the first move, but I say BAD IDEA. They'll make a clean, trace-less kill toNight, and then we'll still be starting from scratch toMorrow. We need to start actively hunting the wolves now, toDay.

Let's see...

In general, we should save the bonus votes for late in the game and for when we are nearly certain about a player's alignment. No gambling unless it's absolutely necessary.

Ok, have to go. More later.

[Mirandir]

UPDATE: Alonariel is having internet difficulties and will hopefully be around later.

[Kent2010]

Agan

Kent who is in your avatar? He looks almost exactly like a guy I went to school with.

Toby Flenderson, he's the HR manager in The Office (the American version), played by Paul Lieberstein. He gets treated so bad, I feel sorry for him.

I would like to clarify I think both you and Gwath have misinterpretted what I meant by this:

I believe everyone else on the list has at least made it known they are here and able to participate (now or during Day -1). 99.9% certainty we won't get a wolf, but we would avoid taking the bigger cost in lynching someone in Alonariel's place.

I did not mean that I am 99.9% certain we will not get a wolf today, I meant that I would consider voting for Alonariel, based on not showing up yet, possibility of a modfire, but she is most likely not a wolf. It would be a conservative move that would prevent us from lynching (or signaling to the baddies) someone we would not want to.

I am not throwing away today, if you want to look at some information look at the responses regarding the bonus votes. I'm still trying to figure out "the Machine of werewolf," but I have noticed a couple things...

When there is a new feature (from what I understand this is the first time bonus votes have been used?), baddies will openly speak about how to use the new facet to the game, or how a wolf might use the bonus votes, when they would use them...etc. Amongst the baddies too there might be a consensus to strategy/using the new feature.

I also posed the question to see if anyone would make a rehearsed, almost robotic response, as if someone has been discussing bonus votes with buddies for the past 36 hours and has "the answer." Frankly, I have no idea how I'm going to use my bonus votes, but I figured it was a topic of discussion amongst the wolves and thy vampire, so if someone had what looked like a rehearsed answer to the question, that would make me wary.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Gríma doesn't have a way to communicate with the baddies in private, but his ability to make gifteds fall ill makes him more dangerous than a normal cobbler. That's why I think it's as important to find him as the wolves. Also, the seer can't find him and should keep in mind that one of her known innocents might in fact be the cobbler.

How do you exactly propose to track them down?

It would be the easiest thing in the world not to leave any sort of traces.

I dislike the implication that we can't trust the Seer and I don't particularly care for much side distraction off the main course of killing wolves/bat.

One has to ask themselves who would be the most interested in getting us skeptical of the Seer and us not focusing on the wolves. Answer, the wolves.

[Kent2010]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I dislike the implication that we can't trust the Seer and I don't particularly care for much side distraction off the main course of killing wolves/bat.

One has to ask themselves who would be the most interested in getting us skeptical of the Seer and us not focusing on the wolves. Answer, the wolves.

That's a bit of an over reaction to Agan's pertinent point that the Seer will find Grima to be an Ordo. I didn't detect any implication of distrust, it's a relevant fact.