Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

but your suspicions against me are wrong and I thought you were blatantly exaggerating it.

You completely over-reacted to somebody putting forward some speculations about you to the point where you put me in an untenable position where I couldn't talk about much else but you and I had to vote against you to try to save myself...even though at the beginning I wasn't really intending to vote against you at all.

That's what having people getting overly defensive about speculation gets us...voting on emotions rather than evidence.

We really need to avoid that toDay.

And I agree with you regarding Gwath.

Anyway, posting from work right now and I have to stop...will be back later.

[A Little Green]

Hello I'm here. I would have been here already a few hours ago if the Barrow-Downs hadn't had some problems.

Originally Posted by Nog

Those players that are bolded probably include the three baddies, Grima and three innocents in danger to die on the oncoming Nights.

We need to get a baddie toDay - or at least force them to use their votes.

First thing towards that direction is to concentrate our search on those bolded. That's at least my plan for toDay.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Now if all of the innocents used their votes early and all of the baddies saved their's, that would be a very stupid move for both sides. It's only the beginning of the third Day and I'm not gonna just throw out half my bonus votes this early just to prove to you that I'm innocent...and I do find it weird that you suggest that all the innocents use their bonus votes early. Now if we did that, of course the baddies will have the upper hand.

Now, about this bonus vote stuff. I agree with Brinn - meanwhile it does seem like a sensible thing for the baddies to do to spare their bonus votes, that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be sensible for an innocent too. I don't see the sense in consuming your bonus votes unless you are at least relatively sure about the person you vote for - and I, for one, haven't yet been so and I bet that's the case with many others as well. What is more, the sort of "I suspect everyone who hasn't used any bonus votes" attitude isn't going to do us good in the long run as it may pressure people to use their bonus votes even if they weren't sure of what they are doing, which not only might lead to disastrous voting scenarios but also to a situation where most people have used up their bonus votes and the few wolves who have them left can control the game easily.

I'll be back in a while with some comments on yesterDay.

Oh, and a little addition: I still don't think the post count a relevant source of information concerning the amount of participation. There are people who like to post the thing they want to say in shorter sections and those who put it all in one post. Also, I don't think the amount of posts (unless outrageously small) necessarily correlates with the amount of actual substance the player provides.

[Nogrod]

I do warmly recommend everyone following Kuru's idea.

It's about time some people opened their mouths and stopped hiding in the shadows trying deliberately not to displease anyone but the one they vote *coughGreeniecough* or fail to vote *coughGwathSallycough*.

I would indeed love to see a round from everyone where you would come up with at least one suspicion of everyone else. So no more "I'll rub you nicely, please rub me back nicely"-stuff either. Let the suspicions flow.

I'll need to make some dinner but I'll be back after that with a few answers / questions to Brinn and then hopefully doing Kuru's bidding myself.

EDIT: X'd with Sally

[Formendacil]

So... at the start of the Day, when I was getting quite sleepy, thanks quite possibly to alcohol and smoke and a week of too little sleep--well, at that point I was all post-happy and could feel the ideas for analysis sitting just out of conscious thought.

Now it's midday, and I can't think of a single constructive thing to say... so I'm just popping to note that I'm here, and I'm planning on being back toward the last hour or two of toDay, but I'll be gone until then (Final exams and 3 hour drive...).

Don't do anything stupid. Please?

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

P.S. one more thing...

I'd like to know Gwath why you decided to chime in at the end between Kuru and myself? I appreciated it at the time, but now with not voting it looks like a move to egg the situation forward and looks like an oppurtunistic wolf defending an innocent.

At the end? Probably because I didn't read the exchange until it was nearly over. Kuru said you had been making a big fuss over your newbie status and I disagreed with him, so I said so. It seemed possible to me that Kuru genuinely believed you had been overly defensive and that he wasn't simply misrepresenting the situation, as a wolf would do. This possibility contributed to my indecision when it came time to vote, as I do not like to vote against people simply based on a difference of opinion. If I did that, I'd never vote anyone but Nogrod and Rikae.

[Gwathagor]

Regarding the bonus votes issue: the more innocents who save their bonus votes, the better - whoever has the most bonus votes towards the end of the game will win. Do NOT waste them now.

Now that I'm thinking along these lines, I wonder if Grima might be likely to try to force innocents to use their bonus votes early on by using some of his/her own.

[Kent2010]

That's what having people getting overly defensive about speculation gets us...voting on emotions rather than evidence.
-Kuru

And I'm going to let you know how I play. There were plenty of apt reasons to honestly believe your were at least the cobbler, my reasons were not skewed by the emotion at the end.

One of the games I scanned before this, a person who played the cobbler said he was the cobbler in one of his very first posts and that went ignored until it was too late. Some may think an ordos job is to vote, let the specials fight it out, and die, but I don't. I will jump right into something, if smiley and punctutation placement can be scrutinized I will call out coded messages and titles. Think twice before anyone tries nifty mind tricks and manuevers. I believe if you bring that type of attention to yourself you get what you ask - for either good or ill.

My mistake was the emotions at the end led me to dump 5 bonus votes on you, and even if you turned out to be the cobbler, that was probably far too much to waste on the cobbler.

But now you all know how I call it, if you don't like it and think my job is to shut up and die, tough...deal with it.

Now, with that out of the way, I will do as you ask Kuru and get to analyzing. I can't be here until the deadline today, but I have lots of hours open today.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

So... at the start of the Day, when I was getting quite sleepy, thanks quite possibly to alcohol and smoke and a week of too little sleep--well, at that point I was all post-happy and could feel the ideas for analysis sitting just out of conscious thought.

Now it's midday, and I can't think of a single constructive thing to say... so I'm just popping to note that I'm here, and I'm planning on being back toward the last hour or two of toDay, but I'll be gone until then (Final exams and 3 hour drive...).

Don't do anything stupid. Please?

Define stupid.


Incidentally, unless I misunderstood (which is highly possible) Kent thought of Kuru as a cobbler, yet he was determined to see Kuru go. Not that I'm advocating leaving the cobbler around to create further problems, but why waste so much effort on a Kuru-cobbler when there's wolves to be caught? Seems either a bit counterintuitive or a lot evil. Take your pick.

[Gwathagor]

Well, if you CAN'T find a wolf, but you CAN find a cobbler, then it makes sense to vote the cobbler - something is better than nothing. I do agree, of course, that wolves take priority.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

So... at the start of the Day, when I was getting quite sleepy, thanks quite possibly to alcohol and smoke and a week of too little sleep--well, at that point I was all post-happy and could feel the ideas for analysis sitting just out of conscious thought.

Well now, reverend Form! Bless you!
(btw. at the moment you stand third in my list of suspicions but that is sure subject to change as I will go back to look at everyone...)



Okay, to Brinn's last post then to begin with as I think it's important.

Originally Posted by Brinn

So you're saying I should've been one to make a decisive vote for a second time and it was wrong of me not to? I was given a lot of crap yesterDay for giving the decisive vote to someone I didn't suspect much...

You could say that very same thing as a wolf and as an innocent, so it's not exactly an argument on your behalf. Though I must agree that the only decent reason I have for still doubting my case on you a bit is your vote on Day1. Maybe you were indecisive then - as you claimed toDay you were yesterDay?

Originally Posted by Brinn

But as I stated in an earlier post, I did not care for any of the choices on the lynching block nor did I particularly care to save anyone on it, so why should I vote for one of them if I didn't have a reason to? My main suspects were Sally and Firefoot and I stuck by those suspicions.

Well, if you really suspected Sally and Firefoot - and you were an ordo seeing nothing particularly good/bad in me and Kuru - wouldn't you have wished to persuade some others to see your point? It's more than obvious that both I and Kuru would have been more than ready to discuss an alternative solution - and whatever your thoughts were, shouldn't you have shared them with us others online at that time to try and make it good for the Pub (the village, that is)? But no, you were not interested about the outcome of the vote but of whom do you give a vote that will not be eyed too closely as it's not a decisive vote?

A goodie cares about the outcome of the vote as lynches are basically the only ways of getting the baddies down. To baddies it's not such a big thing unless one of them is in trouble in a critical moment.

Your action yesterDay didn't give the impression of you being bothered as who would be killed, but it gave the impression of you being very interested in not voting for anyone who would get killed and thus would lead into someone scrutinizing you on behalf of that innocent's death.

Also, if you were a goodie you would have wanted to negotiate the lynch with the others. Why do you try to imply to us (in your earlier post toDay) you were having really a tough time deciding between Firefoot and Sally like it was something important (which it wasn't because you left your vote to the last possible instant so that no one could react to your vote) as meanwhile you don't give a damn to who gets lynched by not trying to influence the vote / negotiate it with others still to vote?


--- interlude ---

My vote may have only counted as one but it still made a difference since Sally did almost get lynched. Maybe I should call you the safe voter for giving Sally five votes at the very end which was just one shy of sealing her fate. Since you're all about decisive voting, why not add on one more bonus vote and get her lynched?

That's a story indeed. Just think how mad I was when I realised I had lost four perfectly usable bonus-votes for nothing!

After seeing at .58 that Izzy had given Sally 4 votes, I sighed from relief and had just written Sally's name to my vote post and was counting for like third time how many votes I should spend to make her even with me when I refreshed the screen and saw your vote to Sally - and Nilp's +3 to Kuru.

But Nilp's vote was not highlighted!

It was already .00 and I refreshed the page a few times to see whether Nilp had edited his post to highlight his vote, but it never turned red. I had no idea how many seconds I had left and finally blinked making the post - adding one more bonus vote just in case someone - like Sally - would have given me one more vote in between my last 'refresh the page' and 'submit message' -clicks.

I just couldn't trust Nilp's vote would be accepted as it was not highlighted on .00.


--- end interlude ---


Your idea of calling me the safe-voter or someone shying away from decisive voting is ridiculous even if you didn't notice that error of Nilp not highlighting his vote. Why would I waste four bonus votes for nothing when I'm about to be lynched? Really. At .59 I was still leading the tally. You think someone would love to be indecisive at that kind of minute?

Are you that low on things to throw at me when I got you?

While I agree that some of the baddies are surely saving up their votes, I really don't like the way you're implying that everyone who hasn't used a bonus vote is automatically suspicious. More than half the players haven't used their bonus votes and I don't think we're wrong in choosing so.

I just tried to awaken people to the problem we have in our hands. If you think my theory is bad you should argue for a better one and not blame me for trying. The moment you come up with a better working plan I will abandon mine and change to yours.

Also I disagree with you in principle here (which has nothing to do with whatever suspicions I have about you). In principle the bonus votes are a great asset to the baddies as they know each other and can co-ordinate their votes in real-time via PM's. That's a huge weapon they have - and a terrible disadvantage to us.

So what's the cure? We will never be able to gather all the innocents who are in doubt under one banner to collectively vote together from our solitary confinements, but the "all-knowing" and "all the time PM'ing" baddies can do it. So let's get rid of that power only the baddies can use as soon as we can.

So we need to create an athmosphere where anyone having ten bonus-votes left feels s/he is going to be lynched because of it - or which would be better: we should force the baddies to defend their mate(s) with their bonus-votes, if we just got a good enough threat to them.

For they will fight toDay. If they get through this Day with no extra-votes used and lynching an innocent they will win unless a miracle happens. So we need to force them to fight toDay if we get it right - or at least need to pressurise them to disarm with the threat of lynching.

Suspecting you heavily I think is a good start.

As I said yesterDay: an ordo may think a lot of voting power is her/his ultimate defence but that's not true. We can not organise our votes as the baddies can and a single disagreement may be the end of it.

I didn't post those counts of the worst-scenario numbers in vain. That is a true possibility and we may be practically lost toMorrow morning.

I do find it weird that you suggest that all the innocents use their bonus votes early.

Who has suggested that kind of "tactics"? Not me. I said we should all disarm - as a show of confidence that is - and then lynch those who do not wish to join. And I expressed many reservations to that. And I already kind of deserted the plan in my posts as an impossible one to execute - before I realised it could be accomplished if we could pressure the wolves toDay.

Oh my, enough of this... I'll come back to your other points if you insist but this is getting too long and I should pay attention to other affairs as well.


EDIT: X'd with a host of posts I see...

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I said we should all disarm - as a show of confidence that is - and then lynch those who do not wish to join. And I expressed many reservations to that. And I already kind of deserted the plan in my posts as an impossible one to execute - before I realised it could be accomplished if we could pressure the wolves toDay.

Yeah...ain't no way I'm disarming.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Here's the current player-list with the number of bonus-votes left.

Brinniel (10)
Fea (6)
Formendacil (10)
Green (10)
Gwath (10)
Izzy (8)
Kent (5)
Kuruharan (6)
Lari (10)
Nilp (7)
Nogrod (5)
Sally (10)
Shasta (10)

Those players that are bolded probably include the three baddies, Grima and three innocents in danger to die on the oncoming Nights.

We need to get a baddie toDay - or at least force them to use their votes.

First thing towards that direction is to concentrate our search on those bolded. That's at least my plan for toDay.

Why is this such an urgent thing to do? We're now on 10-3 but as Kuru is here only for this Day the numbers will be 7-3 toMorrow if we miss toDay (unless Finrod succeeds of course).

Now Thuringwethil can kill someone who still has ten votes on the Night to come and suck the votes to herself giving her twenty extra votes toMorrow. The wolves - having 10 extra each - add up another twenty. Grima possibly having ten extra as well, s/he can just wait and see how the baddies start voting and join the fray. They have together 50 extra votes! That reads fifty! 50!

And those 50 votes are available for them to use against the remaining maximum votes of six innocents - the total number of our votes being 37 at the moment - not counting the possible extras we need to use already toDay...

So toMorrow they lynch whomever they wish and kill one the next Night leading us into 5-3 on Day5 and openly defeat us under the bright sunlight. (Yeah, they too may need to use some of their extra-votes toMorrow to drive the lynch but even one of us ordos not voting in line with others eases their task considerably)

But that's why they would love to keep their full bonus-vote stack yet toDay. And that's why we need to either empty their pockets or lynch one of them toDay.

Well if one of the baddies has already used a few of her/his bonus votes? That's perfectly possible but I wouldn't count on that as a common guideline, at least toDay. And I could bet quite a lot that at least two of them are still fully armed - I'm afraid they all are - so let's dig them out.

*hugs you*

Okay, first of all as far as I understand Thureth....Thurwen....*looks it up*....Thuringwethil can only suck two votes, so at max 'she' is going to end up with 12. Still problematic, but not as bad as you'd think, since hopefully she'll suck (no pun intended, yet it totally is) after she's already used a good portion of her bonus votes.

And I sort of agree about at least some of the baddies still having a full arsenal, but it's possible that they might have used some of them yesterDay either in self preservation or just to get poor Kuru out of the way.

By the way, thanks SO much for the attention yesterDay. *glares* Focus your mad wolf hunting skills (and associated remaining bonus votes) on a baddie next time though if you please.

....

....

Crap. I just went back and read the rules and you're right. If she kills someone she gets however many bonus votes that person has left. Oh my giddy aunt. Now I see why you're concerned. In that case it would almost be better for everyone to rid themselves of some bonus votes toDay if for no other reason than to make sure that if Vamp Girl (I don't want to keep scrolling up to find her name) kills someone she doesn't get as many votes. (Theoretically when she makes her kill, if she hasn't already, she might go for someone with their full arsenal as Noggie called it, knowing that we won't see the result of her vote suck because the person will be dead. Again, just a theory, but it makes sense to me.)

That brings up an interesting point. Footie didn't use any of her bonus votes so it's very possible that Vampie wanted her extra power. There's probably other reasons too, but if Vamp Girl made the kill last Night then that would be my guess as to why.

Originally Posted by Nilp's analysis of me

(Insert his commentary on me here)

Conclusions:

• Her voting has been rather suspect.
• She has made quite a lot of slips, and some rather curious statements, which probably goes with her being off-the-wall style as a wolf (as she has already indicated).
• But, I am generally suspicious of her anyway.

Here your logic fails. You'll notice that when I said 'wolves like me' I also stated that I do that when I'm a wolf. My voting was explained (sort of) but I really do understand why you'd find that odd, so I'm not at all upset about that. And I know. You just hate me.