WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[Nogrod]

Very interesting game from the wolves indeed last Night!

On other matters there are the good news and the bad news.

Bad news are I haven't two wolves to give you.

Good news are that Nerwen is an ordo and will bring her sharp mind to aid you for two Days now (I was suspecting her the most because she seemed to be so well in in the minds of the lupine-thinking).

I'll be back with some more thoughts after the ice-hockey game ends... which should be in half an hour or something.

EDIT: X'd with Legate... Nice try.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Ha, okay, good, so Nog actually posted. Fine, so I will actually do it now - I can go a bit forward in my thinking once you have posted.

Let's see... I have been thinking about it during the Night a lot, because of course, knowing that I am innocent, Nogrod did not tell the truth yesterDay. Of course, the first idea (apart from being aiiieee-heated up by the fact that I could not reply to that claim rightaway!) was that the Wraiths are pulling a plot here, but then, I was just thinking, why the heck are they picking me of all people? Okay Nog, if you did that, that's really pretty nasty. I was actually thinking whether they won't be thinking that I am a Seer or something, but then, why not just to Night-kill the Seer, right. Of course, such a claim of Nog's could lure out a real Seer.

Now. I wonder. Okay, if we have a real Seer, of course it might be helpful for him/her to come out now, especially if he/she knows about Nog's claims, which now could shed some light also at Nerwen's role etc. But that's upon his/her decision: if he/she thinks she could live further, or whatever...

Okay, I have been also considering, actually, if Nog is not really just being bold Seer and playing some game (like blindly trying whether I am a Wolf), or even a Hunter, or whatever... taking into account that he posted his claim only very late yesterDay so that there was no room to discuss it, I thought perhaps he might have done that to confuse the Wolves or something... but now given that he posted his first post and did not clarify anything (like saying "okay, another news, Legate is actually ordo, I did this as a bait for Wolves" or anything), I think I can basically only suppose he is a Wraith. Or if not, then speak up, Nog.

Of course, I am also looking forward to seeing Nerwen post, as one could possibly conclude something from that too.

Okay, I will see - now going to check at least Kent now.

[Nogrod]

Sorry Legate. I did actually feel a bit bad thinking that you'd face a whole Day as a known wolf - and that you would have to either come up with something (which you'd granted have 24 hours to think about with your mates - including the night kill) or then just give up. That's not a nice situation, I know.

And it's applaudable how you try with speculation about the "real seer" or looking back for motives why Kent was killed.

Very good indeed from your part. You play nicely.

And it's true in fact that you don't know if I'm the real seer. But you know I'm right with your role.

Anyway, after you are lynched toDay and shown your evil alignment and I'm dead toMorrow as the seer, then this little excercise is over for both of us. Which is in a way sad but no can do. I just couldn't trust on your goodwill the last Night and so I had to act.

I mean I would have been forced to make a clear enough hint about your evil role yesterDay as I couldn't count myself among the living toDay by just staying away from you with enough high a probability. But had I made it, you guys would have killed me the last Night without a chance to get one more dream. Being a seer is fun but quite stressing. If you have one wolf bagged is it enough? Can you risk another Day without hinting about it clearly enough and lose one baddie for the village just because you want to take the risk?

Well, I decided not to take the risk.

So just to underline the situation: Legate is a ringwraith.

++ Legate

There.

And Nerwen is a plain ordinary innocent - probably for two Days more (if the ranger works decently).


Okay. Now a cigarette first and then a few thoughs before going to bed.

[Nogrod]

Two starters...

Originally Posted by Legwolf

the fact that I could not reply to that claim rightaway

That was intentional my friend.

When the seer reveals it always makes the rest of the Day basically invalid as then the wolves will know what they're up to and will adjust their act to fit the new situation. And it just came to me yesterDay why no one had tried that plan before, eg. revealing only at the last minute so that we have voting and reactions from the wolves who think they are safe from that Day?

I do hope some analysis on that with the knowledge we have now will help us.

Originally Posted by The Ringwraith of Amon Lanc

Of course, such a claim of Nog's could lure out a real Seer.

I'll bet you there won't be one! ToMorrow any trial by the baddies toDay would be revealed to be fake and you can't afford to lose two among you in two consecutive Days. Even if you nasties started with four against only thirteen.

[Nogrod]

Then to what I think now.

My candidates for the dream at the last minutes of the Night were Nerwen, Nienna and Kent.

I must confess that I did think it already in the end of Day2 that I might not check Nerwen but first count the probabilities of how you baddies would act whether she was a mate of yours or not if I called it openly I'm going to dream of her.

I was really baffled why Lhuna was still alive after Night2 as I knew Legate was a baddie and Lhuna made quite a one-track-minded attack on him on Day1 - and I can now see you baddies trying to capitalise on that choice of yours on N2.

Lhuna being one of the pack is a possibility though. I did entertain that possibility for a good time but after reading the thread again I felt there were better choices than her. And the sudden talk about wolves being afraid of a hunter trying to look like a seer (coming from Nerwen and Legate) seemed to fit - if Nerwen was a baddie that is. Now that she's not the question of Lhuna should be raised again.

Nienna and Kent I suspected from being overly careful on Day1 voting - and look at them on Day2: they were both there in the end making their mark! That made me suspect them a lot even if I thought it would be absurd they both were wolves. But which one of them?

Well, you wolves answered that question.

So I'd be looking at Nienna as well toDay.

Although I must add this: the fact that Legate made his last post at the last moment where he said he felt a bit better about Nienna was probably written as crosspost to my revealment so he probably didn't know at that time that I had come open with his role. And that was one of the last factors that made me decide checking on Nerwen rather than Nienna. I mean a confident wolf might say something like that of his mate in the end of the Day but I was unsure whether that would be a reasonable thing to do as I don't think there was any heavy suspicion on her anyway. And Legate would know he would be in the higher end of the list of seer dreams (unless some more interesting seer tactics would be involved).

Sally is one candidate more. I lost track of her yesterDay as her attitude towards people who suspected her was so joking. And as I suspected Nerwen a lot then her suspicion of Sally kind of baffled me as well. The same can be said of Nienna as well. It kind of made me feel sahe could be innocent after all and just having fun around.

But now as Nerwen has turned out innocent - and if Nienna is too - then I'd need to reconsider Sally once again as a baddie.


And the whole Eomer's "suspicion-bandwagon" calls for a closer look. It will be not one but at least two - and probably three wolves - who were bringing their effort into that (I counted at least 7 people suspecting him and making comments that added to the feeling that he should be lynched). THe wolves were feeling fine with that as they knew he was innocent. Just how to separate the innocents taking hold of something others talk about from those baddies deliberately keeping the topic up?

Oh my... needs to go to sleep now. Eönwë, Shasta? Wilwa?

Too many questionmarks...

I'll try to do something later toDay as it will be my last Day anyway - but sadly I have a full day tomorrow from early morning to the late evening. I try to read & post during the midday as I have a short break there and hope to get home before the DL.

EDIT: X'd with Legate x2. And agree with him: this is stupid. Where are you people?

[Lhunardawen]

Oh, another thing.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I was really baffled why Lhuna was still alive after Night2 as I knew Legate was a baddie and Lhuna made quite a one-track-minded attack on him on Day1 - and I can now see you baddies trying to capitalise on that choice of yours on N2.

Lhuna being one of the pack is a possibility though. I did entertain that possibility for a good time but after reading the thread again I felt there were better choices than her. And the sudden talk about wolves being afraid of a hunter trying to look like a seer (coming from Nerwen and Legate) seemed to fit - if Nerwen was a baddie that is. Now that she's not the question of Lhuna should be raised again.

I'm not sure we're speculating along the same lines here, Nogrod - maybe this is another issue of differing playing styles. Wouldn't they want NOT to kill me all the more for fear of being implicated in my death? I'm not certain of Legate's bluffing abilities so I can't say if he could have succeeded in defending himself after killing me.

Of course you can't take my word for it - although that's what you have your dreams for, eh? - but I will tell you anyway that I am innocent.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

I'm not sure we're speculating along the same lines here, Nogrod - maybe this is another issue of differing playing styles. Wouldn't they want NOT to kill me all the more for fear of being implicated in my death?

I think Nogrod means he's surprised you weren't killed as a suspected Seer.

Anyone around?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I have had my servant search the archives for the previous votings, and this is what he has gathered:

On DAY 1, Legate has voted for Izzy eight minutes before the deadline, giving her a second vote (first was from Rune), and putting her in a shared lead with Sally and Nogrod. Had Sally been a Wraith he would probably have voted for Nogrod instead . . . There are many loopholes with this idea, like other Wraiths being around to lead the vote to a conclusion more desirable to them, however there is that plain fact.

On DAY 2, Legate has voted for Eomer three minutes before the deadline, giving him his third vote (Brinn and Wilwa giving him the first two), and putting him in the lead (with Sally in second place). When Nogrod and Kent voted for Eönwë, putting him in a shared lead with Eomer, Eönwë came and voted to save himself, sealing Eomer's fate. It is interesting to note that, this time, Legate 'saved' Sally, and once again gave a fatal vote for another innocent.

Also, I seem to be detecting some strange collusion between Wilwa and Legate, especially on DAY 2. (Not just in the voting.) I would like to think, however, that Wilwa might have found her DAY 1 vote an easy way to cast a Wraith-on-Wraith--but the fact remains that the DAY 1 voting was a tight race until the very end, and therefore a second vote for someone would have possibly been a fatal one. An interesting idea I would follow up on.

Legate's posts will be next on the analysis. He seems to have made a list each day, c'est interessant.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Lhunardawen

Wouldn't they want NOT to kill me all the more for fear of being implicated in my death?

Well they would love to not kill you if they suspected you being the seer going after one of them in a way you did. But they couldn't afford not to kill you if they actually suspected you. Yeah, Legate would probably be dead meat after you turned out the seer but that's a price they need to pay not to give the seer a chance to get more of them.

Now the interesting part is why didn't they kill you Lhuna? Either they didn't believe you to be the seer strongly enough. Or then you are one of the baddies and that was a preplanned thing you did on Day1.


Sorry, I got to run again.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, Kent actually posted just a little, so it was possible to go through all of his posts relatively fast...

Day 1
#12 - In-character.
#16 - In-character. That deal offering that's been discussed a bit here.
#63 - reply to Eomer, and to Nogrod: "so that you are the only one allowed to be hasty?" and explaining to him his deal as merely in-character. Suspects Rune a bit, but does not suspect Nog, thinks he is his style.
#65 - reply to [B]wilwa[/B: hypocrits does not = wraiths, also once again says he's ok with Nog
#66 - feeling good about Legate and Eomer, otherwise "a bit blur"
#78 - voted Rune, wonders how 98% random vote can be "sensible"

Overall reserved, the only person he actually raised suspicion about being Rune. But that was promptly negated...

Day 2
#124 - He no longer suspects Rune, because of going again through his posts and finding the way he went after Nogrod innocent. He asks Rune why he voted Izzy and not wilwa, and then wonders about whether people always say "if I am alive..." etc. And he says he has completely flipped about Nogrod.
#138 - disappointed with Nogrod because he voted past DL and seemed not to care of Izzy or sally, whoever gets lynched. Asks why he didn't vote for the silent ones.
#168 - reply to Nerwen on thinking how Eomer set a trap, mentioning that not only wraiths but also innocents might fall into it, thinking also about why they killed Kath, that they'd first go for Seer in his opinion, but asking if going for a no-trail kill is also an usual thing...
#176 - more reply to Nerwen about Eomer's trap
#178 - reply to Eomer on the trap, apologies to Nogrod for using the term "aggressive"
#183 - reply to Eomer, says he did not spot a baddie yet, talk to Rune, clarifying, about wilwa - was confused by her before but now thinks her rather innocent, just like he did Rune before
#229 - should vote
#233 - asks where is Shasta, remembers that he got away with being quiet as a baddie before
#236 - votes Eönwë

Basically: the sudden flip-flop at the start of the Day could raise the alarms and make somebody think about his Seerishness, okay, if that was so, perhaps the Wraiths might have picked him based on that. Though, there was Nogrod who claimed to be a Seer: so this would not make sense. The one option would be, of course, if Nogrod was not a Seer and the Wraiths knew it. But in the case that Nogrod was a Wraith (and so his packmates would know that his claim is not real), if Kent was killed and been found a Seer, Nogrod would be immediately revealed as a false Seer. Okay, still, it would be a quite fair trade of one Wraith for a Seer, which would not necessarily be as bad for the Wraiths, as they would get rid of probably the most dangerous enemy. However, then it made no sense for Nogrod to reveal by the end of the Day - unless f.ex. others thought Kent a Seer and Nogrod didn't, and only after the Day ended, they told each other, and decided to go after Kent after all. Well, possible, though it seems weird to me.

Another possibility would be, of course, the typical "no trace", as Kent said just very little about people at large, or nothing at all about many. There were also people being suspected by him, so that's another possibility - they might fear him. But why him of all people... I mean, Kent looked quite sensible to me, but not particularly "dangerous" in the sense of being a strong public figure like Nogrod f.ex., who would be capable to "lead" the village according to his opinions...

As for his votes: he changed his mind on Rune at first, and voted for Eönwë the day after that, though he did not voice any particular opinion about him before... may be so that he voted him only after Nogrod's claim - that would make sense, although he posted only very shortly after him and it was in this last-minute confusion. He did not mark any cross-posting on his post, but that is not a proof that he didn't: people don't do that always.

All in all... okay, these are basic thoughts and I will still think about this. Particularly in relation to Nogrod, of course. But I should also go to sleep... will be around for a bit yet, and see. Maybe some more people posted meanwhile (well I guess they did... I got once again a bit distracted and took far longer than I expected... eek).

[Nogrod]

Funny that the seer and a ringwraith are having a dialogue with all others still sleeping or something.

Quite a nice picture though.


But where are you others? Have the ringwraiths killed you in RL?

*posting soon a longer one before sleep*

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Funny that the seer and a ringwraith are having a dialogue with all others still sleeping or something.

Or a fake seer and an innocent, yea...

But for one, of course I agree - somebody should be here and post. (Unless the real Seer ponders whether to come out or not.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, well - now I guess that did it, Nogrod, there is practically no other choice for me, but that you are a Wraith. Now the thing is to figure out what are you doing and what did you follow with the death of Kent, and also Kath before - okay, though the no-trail kill is really likely. But then, also perhaps who your packmates might be. Anyway, let's see. I will probably not be here for long at night, but will pop up in the morning (my time, that is, in several hours). Anyway, I just appeal on everybody to not take Nogrod's claims for granted. Critical thinking, yes, use your own thinking.

Anyway Nogrod, you are just impossible.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Anyway Nogrod, you are just impossible.

I could say the same of you...

But I'm not going to say it.

I do appreaciate your effort. People do not call you a good player for nothing. You get ten points. But you're a baddie still. Sorry.

[satansaloser2005]

Well this is....interesting. Veeeery interesting. The question is whether I should comment or not, at the risk of saying something I shouldn't. Does that make sense? No? Good, me neither.


Well from what I see there's one thing in this game that's for sure. The question is whether to vote for the nassssty Legate now or wait until some discussion's been had.

For now though I need to go, so I'll be back in four hours or so with some feedback.

[Nogrod]

One more thing about this subject of Kent's death.

As I said I thought him somewhat suspicious in the end of yesterDay. But his last post quite left me totally baffled.

What he did at the last minute (voted Eönwë) was of course a right thing to do as it was a reaction to my revealment-post and I had shown that a baddie was actually trying to kill someone. There was no need for you Legate to sacrifice a fellow wolf there - and looking at how you played it was something you dared.

He got it and voted for Eönwë as he was the only other candidate to vote to save Eomer - who looked really innocent at that moment because of wolf-Legate's vote. (Which is not saying anything about Eönwë's guilt or innocence.)

But was he just a very clever and able villager or was he a baddie who was cunning enough to show himself being a good one at the last minute? That was what I wondered a lot as I did (and do) think he could be cabable of it.

Well, we know it now.

So you took away a cabable player who was able to react fast and do the right thing. Like you did with Kath. Lower profile but cabable. That's what you guys go for. Hah, I can see you calling for this tactics Legate...

And you were not after me last Night because you thought the ranger would save me and that a "no kill" last Night would basically prove my point. (Just hoping the ranger took a risk now - or that fex. Groin is the ranger and now comes up to do his duty)

Why you didn't pick Nerwen as she's innocent and also fits the description of lower profile but also cabable still beats me - unless it was because you really wanted to play this masquerade to the fullest and wished to give Legate a chance to make a game for it.

A good choice I must say. You play well as I've said already.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

If Nogrod really is the seer, then we have both him and Legate with special roles in Lommy's game. . .

Maybe one should make theories based on the mods preferences instead of what has been said and done? Just a though. . .