WW LX - Mortal Men, doomed to die

[wilwarin538]

K....wow.

So what I know (no, this is not another seer reveal ) :

Nog: seer
Nerwen: ord
Me: ord
Sally: confusing

Ok.....so I don't agree with Shasta, but I understand where he's coming from, so I'm not jumping on thinking him guilty right now.

So most likely I will be voting for Sally. I need to go eat some breakfast, then I will be back and make a nice little list.

Oh, and the lovey dovey talk between Shasta and Nerwen is totally cracking me up.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

To me these two scenarios are the most likely:

Nogrod is the seer and the wraiths were stupid not to kill him, Sally is Ordo or Wraith.

and

Nogrod is a wraith who sacrificed a mate and Sally is an ordo trying to help the seer.

. . .wait. . .forget it, the only thing I can conclude is that the scenario Sally = Seer, Nogrod = Wraith is not likely.

My problem is that I can easily see Nogrod as a wraith bluffing, but the same goes for Sally.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

To me these two scenarios are the most likely:

Nogrod is the seer and the wraiths were stupid not to kill him, Sally is Ordo or Wraith.

and

Nogrod is a wraith who sacrificed a mate and Sally is an ordo trying to help the seer.

By trying to get Lhuna killed, when she cannot know her role?

EDIT: X'd with Steve.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By trying to get Lhuna killed, when she cannot know her role?

yes

[Nerwen]

And you consider this to be one of the two most likely scenarios?

EDIT: X'd with Rune.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And you consider this to be one of the two most likely scenarios?

It was a thought process and I chose not to delete my ideas after I partially discarded them. . .There are things that does not add up in every scenario, so I keep on changing my mind.

Anyways I am not going to reply again, if this is the way you intend to debate.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rune Son of Bjarne

It was a thought process and I chose not to delete my ideas after I partially discarded them. . .There are things that does not add up in every scenario, so I keep on changing my mind.

Anyways I am not going to reply again, if this is the way you intend to debate.

Hey... I'm sorry if I offended you... but all you said was a a plain "yes"... so it seemed you were saying you still thought that likely. See?

EDIT: X'd with Steve.

[Eönwë]

Woah... *head explodes*

Ok, I'm going to have to reread toDay's talk before I can say much.

[Eönwë]

Ok, though, before I do, some things people have said which I would just like to comment on...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't think Lhuna innocent. As an innocent myself I can't afford thinking someone innocent without a very good cause. So why do you try to make the impression I think Lhuna innocent? Look at my posts backwards and you see I suspect her every noew and then.

Ok, this just seems a little strange to me... if he wasn't the seer (well, as far as we know), I would definately be going after him. Seems like a slip. Why would he be suspecting Lhuna every now and then? Like he's trying to distance himself from her. Nogrod being the relentless WW player that he is would either mention her as seeming more innocent, or would go after her, at least a little bit (because she wasn't his main target).


Also, the logic here seems a little bit strange:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, the talk has been that maybe she's the wraith sacrifice, and they're hoping she'll get lynched and thus buy Sally some credibility. That would rely on the wraiths killing Nogrod toNight... and on Nogrod going along with Sally toDay. (And also requires the third step of Sally being able to convince us ToMorrow that she really was just an ordo trying to save the Seer.)

What would a wraith-Sally have to gain from just being looked upon as a a "lucky innocent", who just happened to be right about Lhuna? It isn't as much of a safeguard from lynching as the seer (and as Nogrod would be a proven seer in your scenario). Also it would lead her actions to be scrutinised much more by everyone else- look what happpens in the games where an innocent Shasta is right about the wolves.
Also, very risky, but then again, Sally is a risky player.


How about a crazy theory:
Nogrod, Nerwen (a "proven" innocent) and Sally/Shasta are all wolves and are just trying to confuse us. Nogrod puts Wilwa in the "proven innocent" category to gain the support of a true innocent (or possibly even a gifted- they're all still alive I believe).

Not very likely, but it's best to think of every option. If it is true, they're amazing.

I also don't like the fact that everyone seems to be agreeing with everyone, even though the general idea is shifting throughout the Day. Something doesn't seem right there.


Now for that reread...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

What would a wraith-Sally have to gain from just being looked upon as a a "lucky innocent", who just happened to be right about Lhuna? It isn't as much of a safeguard from lynching as the seer (and as Nogrod would be a proven seer in your scenario). Also it would lead her actions to be scrutinised much more by everyone else- look what happpens in the games where an innocent Shasta is right about the wolves.

If anyone wants to go back and read that post (#336) they will see that I'm looking at different scenarios and raising points against each one.

My next line was, "Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself".

Your quoting me out of context in order to criticise my "strange logic" does not make me think well of you, Eönwë.

Not at all well of you.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If anyone wants to go back and read that post (#336) they will see that I'm looking at different scenarios and raising points against each one.

My next line was, "Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself".
Your quoting me out of context in order to criticise my "strange logic" does not make me think well of you, Eönwë.

Not at all well of you.

The "Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself", I took to mean that it would be hard to do, as opposed to anything else.

What I said is that it wouldn't be beneficial.

Just clarifying.

edit: fixed italic stuff

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

The "Not a plan I'd have cared to try myself", I took to mean that it would be hard to do, as opposed to anything else.

What I said is that it wouldn't be beneficial.

Just clarifying.

What's the difference? I was looking at the already-proposed wraith-on-wraith theory (I didn't come up with it) and explaining what I thought was wrong with it.

Considering that your out-of-context quoting leads up to your "crazy theory" that Nogrod and I are wolves together... I'm still not thinking well of you.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

What's the difference? I was looking at the already-proposed wraith-on-wraith theory (I didn't come up with it) and explaining what I thought was wrong with it.

Considering that your out-of-context quoting leads up to your "crazy theory" that Nogrod and I are wolves together... I'm still not thinking well of you.

That was just what was building up in my head at the time- and not very plausible, as I said in my post. It wasn't meant to be connected.

Anyway, part of the point of WW is to come up with theories... I was just putting it out there.

[Lhunardawen]

Of all the times that I will have practically no time to post... I'm really sorry. I have to make this short and sweet. Well, maybe not sweet.

Nice try, sally. That was a bold move, because you had to know that it'll be almost impossible to let this fly. But it was ingenious of you, really, to aim to take an innocent down with you, so you wraiths can stand a slightly better chance in the numbers game in the end.

My guess is that sally is a sort of sacrificial wraith thrown out to deflect attention from at least one of her last two fellow wraiths and give them a better chance of winning the game for their side. She could have been bold enough to include wraith-Brinn in her list of innocents, and wraith-Eonwe or wraith-Rune could be slipping under our radars while we argue. I do not know, and unfortunately I do not have the time to further explore possibilities toDay.

At least one thing we know for sure is that we've caught a wraith in sally.

++satansaloser2005

[wilwarin538]

One thought before my list. So if we consider ours odds right now, there are 3 wraiths among 7 possible people to lynch (I'm not counting myself, Nerwen and Nogrod, since I'd be surprised if anyone voted for us). So that is almost a 50/50 chance of lynching a wraith. Pretty good I have to say.

So my thoughts on everyone, now this is looking back from pages 7-9, cause I don't want to read more then that right now, especially since I know I'm gonna vote Sally. I just want everyone to know my thoughts regarding everyone.

Nienna: Not too much, just pops in here and there...a possible baddie I suppose, but for some reason I can't see it...

Nogrod: seer

Shasta: Interesting, I'm enjoying his back and forth with Nerwen....I don't agree with him, but I can tell that he's just trying to consider all possibilities. So I don't really suspect him, I don't think....

Nerwen: innocent and ordinary, just like me

Rune: Seems just as confused as me. I don't know.

Lhuna: I still don't understand, now I'm seeing that yesterDay people were confused over why she hadn't been Night killed, I definitely missed something in here.

Sally: K, one thing I noticed in my re-reading, when Nogrod revealed my innocence she was all like "I'm of much the same opinion", are you claiming you "dreamt" me aswell?? Or you're just agreeing with him....I don't know. I really don't believe her, at all. So I'll be voting her, most probably.

Eönwë: Not liking, really more gut then anything....I'm actually really not trusting anyone.

Brinniel: Makes sense, I want to trust her, and because of that I feel like I shouldn't....I'm getting so paranoid. I honestly don't know about her...

Other thoughts.

Eonwe said this:

Nogrod puts Wilwa in the "proven innocent" category to gain the support of a true innocent (or possibly even a gifted- they're all still alive I believe).

If I was a gifted then Nog would just say I was innocent, but since he said ord then that means he knows I'm not gifted. I think a wraith pretending to be a seer wouldn't say "this person is an ord", cause they risk the chance that that person is actually a gifted (and if a gifted is being called an ord then they know the seer reveal is faked), they would say "this person is innocent", cause anyone who isn't one of their mates is an innocent, so there's no chance of being wrong. Does that make sense?? Basically it's that logic that is leading me to trust Nog, even if it doesn't seem completely logical.

That's all for now...gonna go eat me some Greek pizza, then I'll be back.

X'posted with Eonwe and Rune.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Lhuna: I still don't understand, now I'm seeing that yesterDay people were confused over why she hadn't been Night killed, I definitely missed something in here.

Because she went after Legate so strongly. If it's not wolf-on-wolf, it would have made her look very Seerish to the baddies... so it's strange they didn't kill her. (But then, Nogrod is also still alive...)

Possibly, as I suggested, they were afraid she was really the Hunter, or else that she was Ranger-protected.

EDIT: X'd with Eönwë.

[Nerwen]

Anyway. I have to go now, so–

++Sally.

Good night.

[Nerwen]

Oh, and don't lynch Lhuna toDay. Yes, wraith-on-wraith is a possibility– but it could just as easily be a plot to get an innocent killed.

Sally is a much better risk– plus, her death gives us more information than anyone else's.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

OK I chose to belive that the wraiths made a mistake and did not kill Nogrod 2 nights ago. . .Now if Sally turns out to be the Seer, then somebody has been acting very weird.

++Sally

[wilwarin538]

K, thanks Nerwen.

I'm just gonna vote now cause I'm not positive that I'll be back, but I'll try.

++Sally

X'posted with Nerwen, Rune and Lhuna