WW LXI: Grimm Tales

[Inziladun]

I am, though it's maddening trying to decide whether to believe phantom's latest. I ought to vote for him just on general principles, yet I have some misgivings.
Eomer is apparently convinced McCaber is a wolf. Not sure what I think about that either.

[Nerwen]

I've got some things to say about tp.

Just a moment.

[the phantom]

By the way, wouldn't everyone agree that it would increase voting odds and Hunter pick odds if Gretel also were to reveal as soon as possible?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by the phantom

By the way, wouldn't everyone agree that it would increase voting odds and Hunter pick odds if Gretel also were to reveal as soon as possible?

As I see it, it might also narrow the field enough for the Hunter to be easily picked off during the Night, with a decent chance still of missing a wolf. It might be advisable to hold off another day, when the choices have narrowed a bit. Could be a calculated risk though.
But then again what do I know?

[Inziladun]

I was trying to stay up for a bit and see what else might come up here, but it looks as if I'm fighting a losing battle.
Still nothing from Kath or Gaurcrist it appears. Should Gaur be lynched? He's been a distraction from the get go, whether intentionally or not, and there's always the chance he just might be a baddie.
Just a thought for everyone to chew over.
I see no reason why I shouldn't be back in time for the vote.
Good Night!

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Inzil

As I see it, it might also narrow the field enough for the Hunter to be easily picked off during the Night, with a decent chance still of missing a wolf. It might be advisable to hold off another day, when the choices have narrowed a bit. Could be a calculated risk though.

But do we want to risk the chance that we'll vote for Gretel and kill her?

Or what happens if we vote for her, she reveals to save herself, then we recast our votes for someone else and whoops, it's the Hunter! Or it could happen the other way around of course. The fact is, last minute reveals to save your skin can often lead to bad things. We saw what happened when Izzy revealed at the last moment. If she would've come out hours before and said, "I'm the Ranger and I know for a fact Fea is a baddie" we never would've had any of that mess.

Not only does Gretel help us vote today, and help the Hunter choose tonight, but Hansel can be sure to not use his power on her and take her vote away. Don't forget about the votes, people. Hansel and Gretel can add/subtract votes, and the more people we have revealed the better their chances of doing some good with their powers.

And you really think the baddies will take a blind shot at the Hunter with Hansel and Gretel revealed? No, no- their voting power along with their clear innocence is far too great for the baddies to risk leaving them alive on a chance they may hit the Hunter, especially seeing as a successful Hunter pick might lead to them dying as well.

In addition, waiting until tomorrow might allow one of the baddies time to set up a reveal of their own.

And don't forget this point- what if we're well on our way towards lynching a baddie today, and then they say, "No, I'm Gretel" near the deadline and we believe them and spare them? If Gretel would go ahead and step out now then the Baddies would have absolutely NO roles to hide behind. We know Hansel, we would know Gretel, and it's not viable to reveal as the Hunter, for the real Hunter can just challenge the claim and knows exactly who to hunt then AND more likely than that has some way to prove who they are (judging by Mira's talk of a coded message).

Anyway.... that's what I think.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I've got some things to say about tp.

Just a moment.

It's been an hour. Let's have it. What's your angle on me.

[Lariren Shadow]

Oh fine already. It's not like I've been using my power well anyway...I'm Gretel.

First Day I double Mira, the second Kath, the third the phantom, the fourth Mira again, and didn't do it at all yesterDay.

If people are wondering how I chose: simple I was going to see Mira on Day 1 so I decided to double her vote. Same with Kath because, well, I had nothing really better to go on. Third was the phantom because he seemed to be making sense and then the fourth when Mira revealed I figured why not make sure with her vote. And yesterDay I couldn't double the vote of Izzy because that's who I was going to do and I couldn't double Mira and it felt a waste because we all knew that Fea was going to die anyway.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Look at when I "revealed" as a baddie. It was when both the Seer and Ranger were still alive, and two Wolves were outed. At that point in the proceedings, would it make sense for a third Wolf to reveal, considering two have been caught already and the Seer still has another dream to use before she dies?

The Robber Bridegroom might well try it, but it is very doubtful that it would be intelligent for a member of the evil foursome to come out at that time. It's downright suicidal.

The situation was this: Mira had revealed as the Seer and denounced Agan and Fea. Then Fea counter-revealed and accused you, tp, of being the Robber Bridegroom.

So your reveal supported her claim. Now, it does have a somewhat jokey, ambiguous tone to it... so yes, you could have been doing what you say... or you could have been laying ground for a retraction. Anyway, if you're innocent, you knew she was lying, so it was a dangerous stunt to pull in those circumstances– not just for you, but for the village.

To be fair, if you're the Robber Bridegroom, there's the unresolved question of how you knew which "Seer" was false (and thus the one to support)... I don't know– it may be you were more on the ball than I was, and picked Fea's slip immediately. Or it may be that the RB and wolves have found some way to identify each other– in fact Fea basically said this yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Phantom, love of mine, I applaud you for making it so easy for me to find you. If I hadn't screwed it up, it would have made for some nice evidence of my seerhood.

On the other hand, I'm not sure what to make of Fea's parting words. They do read a bit like, "See, everyone! He IS the RB! Really!"

Bringing me to the other point. No, wouldn't have made sense for a third wolf to reveal as a wolf– but you didn't. And there's a perfectly good reason for a wolf to reveal as a cobbler. You said it yourself:

Originally Posted by the phantom

So there it is. If I'm bad, I'm at worst the Robber Bridegroom, in which case I count for the villagers in the tally and lynching me isn't overly helpful. The point is to lynch the packmates here.

So... I don't know what you are, phantom, but here are the odds I'm offering toDay:

Robber Bridegroom (2-1)
Wolf (2-1)
Innocent (50-1)


Finally, what's this mean–?

Originally Posted by the phantom

So the thought has never occurred to either of you that I'm the fourth and final Ordo

Huh? To the best of my knowledge, there are two ordos (or apparent ordos) left in this village– unless Red Cap has been turned, which isn't public knowledge...

EDIT: X'd since my last post.