WW LXI: Grimm Tales

[Nerwen]

I mean, okay, I should have refreshed before posting.

But even if the "remaining ordo" comment is just a mistake and not a wolf-slip, you haven't answered my other points. And there's your "precisely" comment. Are you saying you are the Robber Bridegroom now?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And there's your "precisely" comment. Are you saying you are the Robber Bridegroom now?

No. That "precisely" meant that you were right about me catching Fea's slip immediately, and thus I knew that she was the false Seer.

Anyway, my fear at this point is that people will show up suddenly and vote and not have time to talk at all.

Let's say hypothetically McCaber is the Hunter, and here in a couple hours when several of us are asleep Kath and Gaurcrist come running in and vote for him, and then they leave. Whoops. With them unloading their votes and leaving, he has no chance to save himself with a reveal, even if he can prove precisely who he is.

So people, seriously, let's not have any of that. Everyone try to be around in the final hour and talk about your leanings and such, so that we can have the best possibility of lynching a baddie. We can't screw this up.

Oh, and Hansel and Gretel, please don't tell us who you used your powers on today. For all we know the Baddies technically have enough voting power to take this game here and now (especially if LRC has been turned), and we don't want to give them the chance to do it. And I would recommend keeping silent on that matter tomorrow as well.

[the phantom]

Sleepy. Bed.

I'm setting my alarm so I'm up for the final hour. See ya.

[Kath]

So we potentially have two known innocents. Eomer and Lari.

Which leaves:
Nerwen
McCaber
Gaurcrist
Inzil
phantom

One is the Hunter (good guy), one is potentially Little Red Cap (bad guy if turned, otherwise good), the Big Bad Wolf (bad guy), the Old Witch (bad guy) and the Robber Bridegroom (bad guy but tallies as good).

Hmm, we have 8 people in this village at the moment. Only three known baddies (I'm discounting Red Cap). We have two reveals. Makes it 6-3. If the Hunter revealed it would be 5-3 but obviously that negates their power a bit. I don't know. It just feels like we ought to be able to push this on numbers but my maths isn't strong enough to work it out. I think what I mean is that if the Hunter revealed then (ignoring me) there are 4 people to vote between, with a chance of 3/4 that we'd get a bad guy (either one of the two wolves or the robber bridegroom).

Is this making any sense?

By the way I'm sorry I didn't appear before. I've been trying to think this through for ages and just couldn't make it all come together in my head. Also I will be leaving in half an hour and won't be back before deadline.

[Kath]

I think my earlier numbers there are completely wrong.

Good guys (by tally) = 6.

Bad guys = 2 (wolves).

Known innocent is 2 (Eomer and Lari) - 6 (unknown).

So if the Hunter revealed it becomes 3 - 5 (unknown).

I'm discounting myself so it becomes 3 (known innocent) - 4 (unknown).

Thus a 3/4 chance of lynching a bad guy and a 1/2 chance of lynching a wolf.

Ah ok I think I just had it back to front before. This seems to make more sense.

[Kath]

Now as to what I think of those five:

Nerwen: I was actually under the impression that she had been confirmed innocent at some point. This worries me slightly if only because my brain is clearly not working. Either she has just come across as very innocent because she is or her fellow wolves have done a very good job of staying away from her.

Gaurcrist: I really don't know what to make of this one. There is little to be gained from his posts because they're few, far between and when they are there there isn't a whole lot of substance. Could potentially be the Cobbler. A newbie but if his role said 'sow confusion and gain attention' that's what he's done.

phantom: Yeah, I'm not even going to try to guess! We should lynch him to be on the safe side.

McCaber: Eomer's 'case' against him was pretty weak but he is one that has been under my radar since the beginning. In a 'I'm aware he's playing but couldn't tell you what he's said' kind of way. Given our known wolves have so far been Fea and Agan, if he was a wolf this wouldn't be surprising. Those two are such loudmouths it would be hard to compete.

Inzil: I have a bad feeling about this one. I didn't like his early reasoning for suspicions. He has seemed to become very savvy about the game quite quickly since the first couple of Days. Have we seen any clues in the narration that Red Cap has been turned because if they have I think it could well be Inzil.

So I think I'd be tempted to leave Nerwen and phantom alone and vote for one of the other three. I only see Gaurcrist as Cobbler rather than wolf and Inzil I suppose I have more of a 'case' for.

I'm going in ten minutes so I'll hold off on voting til then in case anyone else is around.

[Kath]

Well, got to go.

++INZIL