WW LXI: Grimm Tales - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Kath · 05-30-2009, 05:31 AM

I think my earlier numbers there are completely wrong.

Good guys (by tally) = 6.

Bad guys = 2 (wolves).

Known innocent is 2 (Eomer and Lari) - 6 (unknown).

So if the Hunter revealed it becomes 3 - 5 (unknown).

I'm discounting myself so it becomes 3 (known innocent) - 4 (unknown).

Thus a 3/4 chance of lynching a bad guy and a 1/2 chance of lynching a wolf.

Ah ok I think I just had it back to front before. This seems to make more sense.

Kath · 05-30-2009, 05:50 AM

Now as to what I think of those five:

Nerwen: I was actually under the impression that she had been confirmed innocent at some point. This worries me slightly if only because my brain is clearly not working. Either she has just come across as very innocent because she is or her fellow wolves have done a very good job of staying away from her.

Gaurcrist: I really don't know what to make of this one. There is little to be gained from his posts because they're few, far between and when they are there there isn't a whole lot of substance. Could potentially be the Cobbler. A newbie but if his role said 'sow confusion and gain attention' that's what he's done.

phantom: Yeah, I'm not even going to try to guess! We should lynch him to be on the safe side.

McCaber: Eomer's 'case' against him was pretty weak but he is one that has been under my radar since the beginning. In a 'I'm aware he's playing but couldn't tell you what he's said' kind of way. Given our known wolves have so far been Fea and Agan, if he was a wolf this wouldn't be surprising. Those two are such loudmouths it would be hard to compete.

Inzil: I have a bad feeling about this one. I didn't like his early reasoning for suspicions. He has seemed to become very savvy about the game quite quickly since the first couple of Days. Have we seen any clues in the narration that Red Cap has been turned because if they have I think it could well be Inzil.

So I think I'd be tempted to leave Nerwen and phantom alone and vote for one of the other three. I only see Gaurcrist as Cobbler rather than wolf and Inzil I suppose I have more of a 'case' for.

I'm going in ten minutes so I'll hold off on voting til then in case anyone else is around.

Kath · 05-30-2009, 06:06 AM

Well, got to go.

++INZIL

the phantom · 05-30-2009, 06:50 AM

The voting to this point-
Eomer for tp (1)
Kath for Inzil (1)

Anyone else around?

And has anyone besides Gaurcrist missed a vote before? If so you are in danger of Modfire, and that would be a silly way to lose this thing.

Lariren Shadow · 05-30-2009, 07:21 AM

I'm around, I just have nothing much to say. Besides the phantom and Nerwen most of those who are left have been quiet, making it difficult to find really anything.

I've gone though posts and come up with very little about people in general. Even with knowing that Eomer is Hansel there is not much to go on.

Nerwen · 05-30-2009, 07:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

And has anyone besides Gaurcrist missed a vote before? If so you are in danger of Modfire, and that would be a silly way to lose this thing.

I think modfire is only if you miss two consecutive Days.

Anyway, phantom, just so you know, I am most likely going to vote for you or Gaurcrist as being the two most suspicious people. (Surprising, no?)

If you'd like to try a bit harder at convincing me you're innocent, be my guest.

Then there's the other three– among whom at least one villain must be hiding... and I barely have a clue about any of them.

McCaber – I don't find Eomer's case on him to be exactly overwhelming... but he's giving me bad vibes.
Inziladun. – Has managed to slip through the whole game without anyone taking much notice of him. Tends to just follow others' suspicions. Cautious newbie feeling his way... or something more?
Kath. – *shrugs* She's hardly played.

EDIT:X'd with Lari.

the phantom · 05-30-2009, 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If you'd like to try a bit harder at convincing me you're innocent, be my guest.

It's all very simple. Fea revealed as a false Seer. I noticed her Ranger-slip and so knew she was not genuine. I immediately buddied up to her and Agan and tried to become in everyone's mind a clear RB so as to increase the RB's chances of being Night-killed late in the game and decrease my chances of being picked as LRC. Either you believe it or you don't, but logic would certainly support my claim.

the phantom · 05-30-2009, 07:40 AM

Nerwen is the person I'm most confident is not the Hunter, so I'm inclined to gamble in her direction. However, since she's still holding her vote, I'm worried that I may need to compromise on a candidate to keep myself from being lynched.

Meh.... Gaurcrist seems like too obvious a vote. Inzil could be guilty but he's been reasonable, so I'm tempted to keep him alive. I liked McCaber early on but I haven't heard much from him lately. Fading into the shadows...

Nerwen · 05-30-2009, 07:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

It's all very simple. Fea revealed as a false Seer. I noticed her Ranger-slip and so knew she was not genuine. I immediately buddied up to her and Agan and tried to become in everyone's mind a clear RB so as to increase the RB's chances of being Night-killed late in the game and decrease my chances of being picked as LRC. Either you believe it or you don't, but logic would certainly support my claim.

Okay... it could be as you say– could just as easily be one of my scenarios, so I'm not willing to trust you.

However, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt for the moment–

++Gaurcrist.

EDIT:X'd with the phantom and mod.

Inziladun · 05-30-2009, 07:48 AM

Overslept, here and quickly reading.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kath

Well, got to go.

++INZIL

My first vote! I feel important now.

wilwarin538 · 05-30-2009, 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think modfire is only if you miss two consecutive Days.

Indeed.

20 minutes.

05-30-2009, 05:31 AM	#1
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	I think my earlier numbers there are completely wrong. Good guys (by tally) = 6. Bad guys = 2 (wolves). Known innocent is 2 (Eomer and Lari) - 6 (unknown). So if the Hunter revealed it becomes 3 - 5 (unknown). I'm discounting myself so it becomes 3 (known innocent) - 4 (unknown). Thus a 3/4 chance of lynching a bad guy and a 1/2 chance of lynching a wolf. Ah ok I think I just had it back to front before. This seems to make more sense. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

05-30-2009, 05:50 AM	#2
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Now as to what I think of those five: Nerwen: I was actually under the impression that she had been confirmed innocent at some point. This worries me slightly if only because my brain is clearly not working. Either she has just come across as very innocent because she is or her fellow wolves have done a very good job of staying away from her. Gaurcrist: I really don't know what to make of this one. There is little to be gained from his posts because they're few, far between and when they are there there isn't a whole lot of substance. Could potentially be the Cobbler. A newbie but if his role said 'sow confusion and gain attention' that's what he's done. phantom: Yeah, I'm not even going to try to guess! We should lynch him to be on the safe side. McCaber: Eomer's 'case' against him was pretty weak but he is one that has been under my radar since the beginning. In a 'I'm aware he's playing but couldn't tell you what he's said' kind of way. Given our known wolves have so far been Fea and Agan, if he was a wolf this wouldn't be surprising. Those two are such loudmouths it would be hard to compete. Inzil: I have a bad feeling about this one. I didn't like his early reasoning for suspicions. He has seemed to become very savvy about the game quite quickly since the first couple of Days. Have we seen any clues in the narration that Red Cap has been turned because if they have I think it could well be Inzil. So I think I'd be tempted to leave Nerwen and phantom alone and vote for one of the other three. I only see Gaurcrist as Cobbler rather than wolf and Inzil I suppose I have more of a 'case' for. I'm going in ten minutes so I'll hold off on voting til then in case anyone else is around. __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

05-30-2009, 06:06 AM	#3
Kath Everlasting Whiteness Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Perusing the laminated book of dreams Posts: 4,533	Well, got to go. ++INZIL __________________ “If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world.”

05-30-2009, 06:50 AM	#4
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	The voting to this point- Eomer for tp (1) Kath for Inzil (1) Anyone else around? And has anyone besides Gaurcrist missed a vote before? If so you are in danger of Modfire, and that would be a silly way to lose this thing. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

05-30-2009, 07:21 AM	#5
Lariren Shadow Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Where the day meets the night Posts: 607	I'm around, I just have nothing much to say. Besides the phantom and Nerwen most of those who are left have been quiet, making it difficult to find really anything. I've gone though posts and come up with very little about people in general. Even with knowing that Eomer is Hansel there is not much to go on. __________________ Choose treachery, its more fun!

05-30-2009, 07:40 AM	#8
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Nerwen is the person I'm most confident is not the Hunter, so I'm inclined to gamble in her direction. However, since she's still holding her vote, I'm worried that I may need to compromise on a candidate to keep myself from being lynched. Meh.... Gaurcrist seems like too obvious a vote. Inzil could be guilty but he's been reasonable, so I'm tempted to keep him alive. I liked McCaber early on but I haven't heard much from him lately. Fading into the shadows... __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.