WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Macalaure]

Alright, what do we have now?

Rikae and A Little Green are dead, but innocent.
Nerwen is at least not a mutineer, and so is Eomer, though he's dead, too.
Nogrod, Annu, and McCaber are dead and we don't know what they are.
(I'm ignoring the silenced Mira and Wilwa here.)

Who had more and who had less reason to be afraid of being Rikae's pick? Of course, even a mutineer at risk of being picked by her could still take the risk and kill her, but if we don't ask ourselves this question, then we learn nothing. I prefer the slightly risky assumption to nothing. (And before someone else brings it up I'll say it myself first - yes, this assumption conveniently puts me into the less suspicious box. So lynch me.)

Had reason to suspect being the hunter's pick:
Lommy, Kath, Gwath.

Had not (or not much):
Boromir, Mith, Eonwe, Nogrod, Shasta, Inziladun*, Izzy*

(* were suspected, but more of cobblery than wolfery, which means while Rikae thought them bad, she would probably not pick them)

The fact that the actual pick came from the second group make the assumption thin, but don't forget that the mutineers couldn't know this. My conclusion would be that the mutineer-density is higher in the second group than in the first. Especially if we assume that the mutineers have already been lessened in numbers (higher likelihood of missed kill), I'd have a hard time believing that there's more than one mutineer in the first list. (The one would be Gwath, I'd highly suspect.)

Originally Posted by Lommy

I know Macalaure knew she'd not have the nerve to pick him just yet.

A definite "no" to that. And why do you say that you know it?

Originally Posted by Lommy

-Snifflin’ Mac Sparrow ~ Cooper
LYNCH HIM!

I'm sure this comment will make you even more sure, but for what it's worth: Rikae tested me and concluded that someone else was still more suspicious than me. Why exactly did you reach a different conclusion? You don't explain, you only state. Can you give me a non-vague reason why you are so certain of me? I'm asking this hoping it will make up your mind, because I still think you're innocent (though it's possible you're a cobbler who figured out that I'm not a mutineer and wants to get me lynched now). Boro's innocent (if it really was innocent, of which I'm not really sure) fixation on Nogrod didn't help us one bit either.

Originally Posted by Inzy

I'm pretty well convinced Gwath is not a mutineer. If he was, I don't believe he would have missed the vote yesterDay.

What makes you so convinced of that? Keep in mind that Gwath missed the entire Day yesterDay. Why couldn't he have missed the Night before, too?

Originally Posted by Inzy

The signs appear to point to a Mutineer Mac and a Conspirator Gwath.
With Rikae's vote for Gwath, it was a reasonable assumption for the mutineers that he would indeed be her pick for the Night as well.

Her strong suspicion of Gwath means that he was high on her list of possible picks, but it would be foolish for any mutineer to assume that he was definitely her pick. Also, she could easily have been more suspicious of someone else, but seeing that that someone else had no votes, she kept her vote on her good-enough suspect.