Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIII: The Cottage of Lost Play

[McCaber]

Morning, gents. By this time I hope everyone believes me. I know trading one wolf for the seer is a move the wolfpack would willingly take, but on this Day (almost certainly my last) I feel rather confident.

But my scryings last night did not reveal a wolf. As of right now that's all I'm prepared to say directly on the subject.

And I heavily doubt that my ranger friend can protect the same person twice in a row. If that were true, he (or I, in this case) would become nearly invincible. What I do hope is that he was smart enough to realize that my last comment was meant to bluff the wolves out of attacking me so the ranger could protect someone else and save me tonight. I guess we'll find out soon enough whether that's the truth.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Morning, gents. By this time I hope everyone believes me. I know trading one wolf for the seer is a move the wolfpack would willingly take, but on this Day (almost certainly my last) I feel rather confident.

Certainly you are deserving of complete trust. It's good to see you still with us!
I have faith that the Ranger was wise, and you'll have another opportunity for dreaming the next Night.
Ruminations on the previous Day's conversations are in order. With luck, something interesting might be brought to light.

[Nessa Telrunya]

I believe I am not alone when saying that some light shed on your dream is eagerly awaited. At this point, there's no reason not to trust you after you pointed out the last wolf.

[Eönwë]

Of course, McCaber may be a wolf who gave up one of his fellows in order to appear helpful. Now he can just keep on claiming proven innocents. But as it's so early, this seems very unlikely to me, and I'm sure that if McCaber doesn't die toNight or the Night after then it wouldn't really pay off, as we would (or at least I would) start to see him as suspicious.

[McCaber]

Aside from a bit of sleep to dream in, I spent the night contemplating the actions of yesterDay. I think we can narrow these odds quite a bit in our favor. Having to come into the open wasn't really all that bad a move, because after I mentioned Fea a second or third time I had to think the wolves would have killed me in the night, just to make sure. Now I have some breathing room and some ranger backup.

First of all, people I don't think are wolves:
Nessa voted for Fea, and vice versa. I have a hard time thinking that the wolves would have spent two of their votes against each other as the first votes of the day.
For Nogrod, it would have been too easy for him not to vote and let me die yesterDay along with Fea. I'd say he's clean.
I would have said Boro over here, precisely because of his link to Fea. Working together like that really strikes me as more of a wolf working with an innocent to gain trust, rather than a wolf combo attack.
Pitchwife and Lal both seem decent, simply based around the voting records. I can only assume that I looked like a seer to the wolves, and that getting rid of me then or at night would have been what they were looking for.

I also believe that there probably is a wolf among those people who didn't vote. No real reason, but simply a feeling.

[Pitchwife]

A few comments on McCaber's last.

For Nogrod, it would have been too easy for him not to vote and let me die yesterDay along with Fea.

And Shasta, not to forget. Nog voted last and broke the three-way tie - for which we owe him thanks; on the other hand, this was exactly what might be expected from a person of his reputation for common sense and wisdom (I'm tempted to say, regardless of his role).

I would have said Boro over here, precisely because of his link to Fea. Working together like that really strikes me as more of a wolf working with an innocent to gain trust, rather than a wolf combo attack.

The problem with this is, the interaction, as far as I can reconstruct, was initiated by the innocent (Boro) rather than the wolf.

I can only assume that I looked like a seer to the wolves

I wonder why. You certainly didn't look like one to me prior to your reveal, but that may just be my lack of previous experience with visionary persons. Heck, I almost voted for you instead of Shasta!

I also believe that there probably is a wolf among those people who didn't vote.

Not sure about that. I'm inclined to think Nerwen failed to vote for reasons that have nothing to do with our current predicament. As for Rikae, I don't know - after her last post, she may have been too drunk to vote.

(x-ed w/ Eonwe #140 ff.

[Lalaith]

Heck, I almost voted for you instead of Shasta

This is the problem, seers can so often seem wolfish.
Anyway, all this talk of whether McCaber is for real or not seems like time-wasting to me; common sense decrees that he is exactly what he says he is.

I think we should be looking more closely at our known wolf, Fea - what she said, who she said it to, what she didn't say, what others said and didn't say about her, and so on.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

This is the problem, seers can so often seem wolfish.

Yes, I would presume so, though it sounds as if you've done this sort of thing before. Please tell us...

In fact, the reason I found him suspicious was because he was laying low, not doing anything bold and standing out, but also posting all the things that he needed to so that you couldn't think he was deliberately being quiet or hiding his views. At the time when I first commented, he was ticking all the boxes, but no more, no less, which is exactly the sort of behaviour that I would have expected from a wolf- hiding right in front of your face. However, he improved afterwards, and seemed more involved and into the this discussion, and I'm sorry that I helped to force him out of hiding.

[Nogrod]

"Looking at the last ones then...

Inzil voted for McCaber tying him with 2 votes with Fea.

Now this is an interesting one. Now let's recall what he said back then:

Originally Posted by Inzil

Because he's been so unobtrusive and is now backing up Nessa's strange vote, for unknown reasons. A railroad begun by one wolf and continued by their fellow?

It is indeed interesting how strongly he feels for Fea's innocence to come up with that kind of thoughts... not the least as he had just a little earlier said that Fea looked like too eager to please and that he'd suspect such persons by default.

His interpretation of Nessa denying her vote as a knee-jerk reaction ("why didn't she suspect her earlier then?") is indeed a valid POV and well caught. But then again, Nessa's "brave point" remains an enigma to me at least. Maybe Inzil is right and caught her making an error confused of her mate voting her?

But oh the bad luck () Inzil happened to pick McCaber as his target - and was factually saving Fea at that point... If he would be a wolf he would have to vote someone who could win Fea in the votes and McCaber had been suspected enough - and looking at the spread of votes that far would have been the safest choice to save Fea - if that was his agenda, that is.

Bah, I'm totally mixed up with Inzil. He seems to make fair points and have a good eye on things but then he happens to be there where the baddies most need him - and his overwhelming trust for me indeed makes me feel a bit uneasy...

Lalaith voted for Shasta. (Fea2, McCaber2)

The first thing that catches the eye here is that she didn't want to choose between Fea and McCaber - even if they were two of her "unsettling trio" (Add Boro to make a trio). Neither was she willing to put Inzil, Nessa or Eönwë up to a par with the two leaders. But she opened a new alley with Shasta - because of my "persuasion"...

Now if she is a wolf teamed up with Fea - and possibly another one of those who had gained votes already - the choice would be understandable. But then again, she could have just raised someone to compete with those mates in danger - and that kind of releases her in my eyes somewhat. I mean those were the last minutes anyway.

But why not vote for Fea or McCaber if they were so unsettling to you Lalaith?

Pitchwife voted for Shasta. (Fea2, McCaber2, Shasta2)


He's the hardest one for me to assess. It looks like he didn't know Lalaith had voted for Shasta as well (maybe he was in a different room or something). I suspected for Shasta as well yesterDay (and I do understand also Lalaith's vote from this perspective), but the very same question could be asked from Pitchwife as well: why spread the vote when there were people you thought suspicious in the lead - and if you didn't know Lalaith had voted for Shasta as well as you claim?

I mean had you known that, it would have made a lot of sense as you could have bet I might join you two with it... and thence save Fea, and thence lynch an innocent Shasta? But if you didn't know - as I need to believe - then your choice is an enigma to me. *

Interestingly McCaber's revelation falls in between Lalaith's vote and Pitchwife's vote. More interestingly, you didn't feel a need to make a comment on there in the last four minutes (the same thing applies to Lalaith as well - with six minutes to comment on the revelation).

An innocent I think would have come up with an instant reaction of awe or surprise but you two stayed silent in purpose... and this makes me look at Inzil a bit better right now again.

Nogrod votes for Fea (effectively lynching Fea).

Okay. I had suspected her from her first post onwards and was just happy to see a wolf down after McCaber's revealment. Surely that was the only decent choice I had there. Without McCaber I might have voted Shasta as well - it would have been a hard choice to me.

Now you may say that yes, a wolf-Nogrod would have done the same and I admit that it is true. But an innocent Nogrod did that too - and could not have acted otherwise either.

Bah... Now a new pipeful, a few thoughts and then I think I need to take a rest..."


EDIT: * and the same supportive argument can be seen in relation to you as well as Lalaith...

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I have a headache, and I can't find any aspirin anywhere. Typical.

In any case, there are three (four?) people I'm looking at very hard today, and I'll give my reasons a bit later - Inziladun, Nogrod, Lalaith (and possibly Pitchwife, although he's new).

And yes, I realize I'm poking at everyone who poked at me yesterday. But really, Nogrod, your usual pontification on people who hide behind "in-character content" is not going to fly this time, I won't have it.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I wonder why. You certainly didn't look like one to me prior to your reveal, but that may just be my lack of previous experience with visionary persons. Heck, I almost voted for you instead of Shasta!

Because you didn't know that Fea was a wolf. I was going after her, and it must have made them wonder.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Because you didn't know that Fea was a wolf. I was going after her, and it must have made them wonder.

You weren't the only one. Nog did as much, and was much more explicit about it.

Nessa (assuming you're still with us), I'd like to believe your vote against Fea wasn't just a knee-jerk reaction, but I'd still like you to explain the reasoning behind it.

In case somebody's about to ask the same about my own vote: Shasta popped up very briefly and disappeared again, almost immediately; later offered an explanation for his absence that sounded plausible [OOC: story-wise I mean], but didn't really satisfy me; rebuked Inzil for twisting his words (and rightly so, I think); but all in all I had the impression he just made an appearance for appearance's sake without offering anything substantial - which I thought suspicious.
Indeed, one of the reasons I suspected McCaber is that he seemed too eager to clear Shasta of suspicion without any argument that looked convincing to me. And I'm still curious to hear what Shasta has got to say now, once he wakes up.

Lalaith (if you're still listening) -

Nothing, except that it is easy to appear busy and helpful and that can sometimes be a diversion.

Very true. But the same goes for being laid back, calm, cool and collected. Glad to see you more involved now!

Also rather troubling, incidently, is your rather frantic and pre-emptive response justifying your own actions

I can't see anything justifying the adjective frantic here. Care to enlighten me?

(x-ed w/ Nogrod)