Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIII: The Cottage of Lost Play

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by autume98

I agree that McAbre is who he claims to be. I'm going to believe that he is the seer for now. I'll give my thoughts on others after I look at things more closely.

McAbre? Are you insinuating he's gruesome, or 'produces horror'? (sorry, couldn't resist.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Inzil voted for McCaber tying him with 2 votes with Fea.

Now this is an interesting one. Now let's recall what he said back then: It is indeed interesting how strongly he feels for Fea's innocence to come up with that kind of thoughts... not the least as he had just a little earlier said that Fea looked like too eager to please and that he'd suspect such persons by default.

I did say I found her a bit unnerving, but I didn't think it enough to induce me to vote for her. I certainly never said she was innocent.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Bah, I'm totally mixed up with Inzil. He seems to make fair points and have a good eye on things but then he happens to be there where the baddies most need him - and his overwhelming trust for me indeed makes me feel a bit uneasy...

'Overwhelming trust for you'? I'm afraid not, good sir. You've been making sense, and I don't see in you anything in particular at the moment that gives me chills, but you are certainly not beyond suspicion.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Shasta popped up very briefly and disappeared again, almost immediately; later offered an explanation for his absence that sounded plausible [OOC: story-wise I mean], but didn't really satisfy me; rebuked Inzil for twisting his words (and rightly so, I think); but all in all I had the impression he just made an appearance for appearance's sake without offering anything substantial - which I thought suspicious.

Forgive me, but I still don't see how I 'twisted his words'. I didn't think his explanation made much sense and I made a comment about it. If I just missed something, fair enough, but I thought it a valid statement at the time.

x/d with many

[Nogrod]

While grinding the coffee beans Nogrod heard what Pitchwife and Inziladun were saying. He smiled and turned towards them.

"Good! Keep on at it! Answer the questions and suspicions I made concerning you! That's the way we can progress..." Suddenly he straightened himself and yelled so loud everyone could hear it.

"Now everyone do it! Answer my suspicions - or what could be even better, make your own suspicions and make others to answer them! The more suspicions, the more answers to them, the better we're off. Only those cursed ones would love silence and randomness. That's pure mathematics. So let's start some real discussion now! Only that way we can assess if we can think someone is more reliable than not."

[Rikae]

Well, I still don't trust Pitchwife. His words seem... too calculated. And why is he so quick to defend Eonwe (who I also don't trust) against Lalaith?

I also have to disagree with our esteemed, if macabre, seer: Nogrod is most certainly still a possible suspect as far as I'm concerned (in fact, he is decidedly suspicious). I've known him for quite a while on the 'downs, and he certainly has the sense it takes to jump in and help lynch a doomed packmate, making himself look innocent. He's just the type to do exactly that, even, and lately - ah, I'll probably have to mull over his words to figure out exactly why, but he doesn't look honest.

[Inziladun]

Well, it's good to see Rikae around. More, please.
I'd also like to hear more from autume98, Lalaith, and definitely Nerwen.
And Shasta, I'm eagerly awaiting your case against me. But not so much that I can hang around here indefinitely. Indeed, the time has come for me to retire to my quarters for a bit for some relaxation and slumber.
As some reputedly great man or other once said, 'I shall return'.

[Nerwen]

Nerwen spoke up from the corner where she had been sitting quietly, watching the others.

"Well, what did I say? She was trying to dispose of the evidence!

'...Now, I notice that Nessa Telrunya was rather eager to point out that the people who voted Fea were unlikely to be wolves. I'm not so sure. Nessa and Fea's voting each other is something that could have been staged, I think. After all, Nessa's vote was only the first cast on Fea, and it seems to me that the wolves might vote each other, to throw us off the track.

'Then McCaber– who claims to be the Seer– cast the second vote on Fea. I don't see any reason to doubt him. But then we have Nogrod sealing Fea's fate by giving her the third vote... and I don't think we can say whether that's innocent or not– given that the Seer had just denounced her, I think it's possible that a Nogwolf would decide to throw her under the bus.

'I don't, mind you, see any particular reason to suspect Nogrod. He doesn't strike me as behaving in a guilty manner or anything. I'm just saying, it could be a mistake to treat him and Nessa as confirmed innocents– particularlyNessa. Her relations with Fea yesterday looked a little, I don't know, artificial."

[autume98]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

McAbre? Are you insinuating he's gruesome, or 'produces horror'? (sorry, couldn't resist.

Funny Inzil!

I'd like to address me being quiet. I'm just a quiet person by nature. I tend to take things in. However I see that I'm going to have to speak up more and let my thoughts be known. I appreciate what you have to say Nogrod. Your thoughts help me out quite a bit.

I also had some doubts about Inzil for the reasons you listed Nogrod, however I'm not sure where I stand with him now.

I really haven't heard enough from some to know enough about them.

I'm looking forward to read what Shasta has to say about Inzil, Nogrod, Lalaith, and Pitchwife.

I'm not sure where I stand with Nessa. Was the vote a knee-jerk reaction?

[Lalaith]

Well, this has been an interesting morning so far, but before I talk about my impressions of my fellow houseguests, I will share my day's work with you all, for I have done is to look more closely at our known wolf, Fea. Of course, we all know from the Downs that this is a lady of quicksilver wit and high intelligence, and it is not likely that she would leave clumsy clues. But still...

The interaction with Boro, and McCaber's intervention - well that was fascinating in retrospect. I saw something was going on, but I was looking at it from the wrong angle, and suspected McCaber. Classic murder mystery stuff..but of little practical use to us now, as we know the status of all concerned in that triangle.

The other interesting interaction was with Nessa. She votes for her, having already said that she will vote for either Nessa and Nerwen. Then, when Nessa immediately retaliates with a vote, she responds by telling the rest of us that Nessa is clearly not a wolf.
Now, at this point, of course, Fea-wolf does not know she has been scried. Why does she make this defence of Nessa? My first thought was that such a comment was primarily intended to make her (Fea) look good...proclaiming someone else's innocence like that is not a wolfish thing to do. Could Fea also be defending a fellow-wolf? It is certainly a high-risk strategy for two wolves to vote for each other like this on the first day...but not inconceivable, particularly when followed up by Fea's comment, which could have been expert damage limitation.
Well, that's my Fea analysis. More soon.

[Rikae]

Well, I think we'd benefit from recalling yesterday's votes. I'm surprised no one has done so yet.

1. Boro (known innocent) voted for Inzil, apparently because of his response to Eonwe's (very silly, in my opinion) talk of werewolves pretending to dislike blood, and for lack of participation.

1. Fea (known wolf) voted for Nessa, “because when I have nothing better to go on, I revert to the ones who leave me no trail to follow later.” An easy vote, but of the sort an innocent might make – however, it is not one that others would tend to follow, and for that reason, could be wolf-on-wolf. Fea hasn't made any argument why Nessa should be lynched, just justified her own vote.
2. Nessa for Fea "I think Fea was very quick to start cleaning up the body earlier today, and she seemed quite sure of everything she said." Fea later said: “And all I can say, really, is retaliatory votes amuse me. Don't vote Nessa. No wolf would do something as silly as that.”
3. Eonwe voted for McCaber, based on a “hunch”.
4. Autume voted for Eonwe, based on “gut feeling”.
5. McCaber votes for Fea.
6. Inzil voted for McCaber “Because he's been so unobtrusive and is now backing up Nessa's strange vote, for unknown reasons. A railroad begun by one wolf and continued by their fellow?” Others have called this suspicious, but it seems to me something an innocent could come up with, observing that voting.
7. Lalaith for Shasta “Ok, I'm going to spread the votes rather than join a bandwaggon.
   I'm torn between Nerwen and Shasta, but Nogrod's last post has persuaded me” This seems a little odd, and I don't really see why Nogrod's ranting about lack of participation should be so persuasive – maybe I'm missing something, though.
8. Pitchwife voted for Shasta, crossing with Lalaith's vote and McCaber's reveal. Doesn't give any reasons in the posts, and, thinking back, the only things I can recall him saying about Shasta are that he would like to hear more from him and that he “disappeared quickly, for what may be a good reason;”
9. Nogrod voted for Fea, which is about the only thing he could do at this point, whatever his role.

Nerwen and I, and, it seems, Shasta, didn't vote. I don't find any of our non-votes particularly suspicious. The people who come out of yesterday's voting looking most dubious are, in my opinion, Eonwe, Pitchwife, Lalaith and Nessa.

[Nessa Telrunya]

"Well, up to now, I don't have clear views on everybody, but can assess based on what's happened.

Inziladun I'm not sure about. He seemed to be there where Fea needed it when he tied her vote for McCaber But it doesn't really seem to me that he's dodging everyone, so I don't know.

Shasta I have my suspicions about, but I don't think it's anything that would require me to vote for him just yet.

Pitchwife I have a feeling about. Sure he clearly states his thoughts about everyone, but something just doesn't sit right. He voted for Shasta, who didn't have anything clear against him, because he said he didn't like bandwagoning. That's hardly a reason.

McCaber we've already dissected. Now, we can assume he's the seer. If he lives for long, he probably isn't, since the wolves would go for him. I have to watch him.

Nogrod seems fairly stout for the moment. He gives you his views flat out, but no one is truly safe from all suspicion, so I can't count him out just yet.

autume98, frankly, I can't see as a wolf. She isn't trying to outmanuever anyone enough for that, and she reasoned her vote for Eonwe as a gut feeling.

Lalaith hasn't given much to go on. She just seems to be giving her ideas without really throwing herself out there.

Nerwen I'm still not sure. Her situation is about the same as Lalaith.

Rikae didn't vote. There could be an innocent explanation, but no one is counted as a sure innocent yet.

Eonwe seems wholesome. Nothing she's said or done so far looks off to me.

But those are just my views. I could be totally wrong.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Nothing she's said or done so far looks off to me.

She?

[McCaber]

Vote Count:

Pitchwife: 1 (Lalaith)

You know, just in case anyone was wondering.

[Nerwen]

"By the way, Lalaith," said Nerwen, recalling something the other woman had said earlier,

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Then, Eonwe and Pitchwife. I may be being dense, but I can't really think of a likely innocent explanation for their double-act. It is however possible that one of them is an unwitting stooge. Which? Actually I think it is more likely to be Eonwe - he is being defensive, and Pitchwife might be taking advantage of this and fostering him as an ally.

"Is it really likely that a relative newcomer to the Downs like Pitchwife would be able to manipulate Eönwë so successfully? I don't say it's impossible– he seems to have a good handle on things– but to me their conversations look much more as if Pitchwife is getting tips from Eönwë."

Edit:X'd since McCaber.

[McCaber]

Once again night is nearly here. I give it about two hours before the worst of it hits.

And it's strange, but I myself am unsure of who to vote. I was actually hoping for more discussion, but I suppose that two hours is a long time in this scenario.

Well, there's no way I like Eonwe, or perhaps even Lal or Pitchwife. I'll give this another pondering and see if anything strikes me.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

She?

Ah, I'm so sorry! Everyone's nicks are so confusing! I also would've called Pitchwife 'she' by accident, only his name has already been adressed.

[Lalaith]

So, here's my impression of my fellow houseguests.

Nessa Well, I have already discussed her as part of my Fea analysis. Her comments today are disingenuous – particularly that people voting for wolves can’t be wolves, and this of course includes her.
Pitchwife/Eonwe
I will analyse these two together as today they seem to be twins.. First, the two of them have (to me at least) fairly protracted and pointless conversation about McCaber possibly not being the seer – particularly as Eonwe eventually answers his own question (that a false seer claim actually gives us two wolves).
Then there is their mutual defence system. I make a sympathetic comment to Pitchwife about his error over McCaber, and Eonwe answers with a defence of his own actions, even though no-one (as far as I can make out) has questioned them. Then Pitchwife steps in to question my comments about Eonwe. I answer them, and he defends Eonwe once again. This is all really suspicious, to my mind.
Rikae – participating more, and her analysis just now was good. She has also picked up on the Pitchwife/Eonwe bond. I am inclined to trust her for now.
Inziladun – active, raising good points – dismissing the ‘McCaber is a fake’ argument briskly - so again, inclined to trust for now.
Shastanis Athreduin – spent yesterday being very ‘busy’, but not, to my mind, helpful, which is why I voted for him. This busy unhelpfulness is further underlined by his failure to vote. Has been arguing with Nogrod today – although this is at least more ‘substantial’ behaviour it is also overly defensive so I am still feeling anxious about him.
McCaber- Known innocent so has no agenda – we need to remember this.
Nogrod – I trust him for now as he appears to be working hard using evidence and analysis to get solutions; only flaw is that he does not always take the differing personalities of others into account. Actually, my chief worry about you, my friend, is that this strange house has played such tricks on your mind that you are claiming Sancerre as a pinot noir.
autume98 – we’ve had very little but uncertainty from her. Understandable, perhaps, but still, clouds of confusion are useful things to hide in.
Nerwen – I agree with what little she’s said so far, but I am getting impatient with her lack of participation.

[McCaber]

All right, I'm back functioning again. Probably around until the end of the day.

So far I think what has been said so far toDay is helpful. Now we need people to talk about each other's analyses and what they think about them. (Taking a cue from Nogrod's book here, because that's at the core of finding suspects.)

[Nessa Telrunya]

So what is everyone else thinking around now? We need to be ready to discuss before we vote, and the deadline isn't that far off. I'm interested in the thoughts of those of us who haven't spoken much.

[McCaber]

Well, I know one person I can trust for sure. There are a few who still frighten me a bit, and a few who have gotten more onto my good side. And then come those who have not said enough to show me much of them at all. Nerwen, guess which one you're in right now.

What? Can't a seer make fun of people too? This is a high-stress job we're talking about.

[Lalaith]

I need to vote now (as stated elsewhere). I appear to have four main suspects and clearly they can't all be wolves. So my process of elimination involves asking myself - could there be an innocent explanation?

First off, Nessa. I have speculated on wolf-on-wolf voting, but the alternative is that Nessa simply found Fea guilty-like. And after all, she was right - Fea was guilty. Then her comment today about wolves not voting for each other may also have been based on a genuine belief. So, benefit of the doubt for her.

Shasta - his explanation for yesterday is that he was trying to fulfill the hostess' edict - and he did, I have now noted, explain his failure to vote elsewhere. I am never impressed by defensiveness but some perfectly innocent people do get prickly when prodded. So, benefit of the doubt for him too.

Then, Eonwe and Pitchwife. I may be being dense, but I can't really think of a likely innocent explanation for their double-act. It is however possible that one of them is an unwitting stooge. Which? Actually I think it is more likely to be Eonwe - he is being defensive, and Pitchwife might be taking advantage of this and fostering him as an ally. So, my conclusion is...
++Pitchwife

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Nerwen – I agree with what little she’s said so far, but I am getting impatient with her lack of participation.

"All right, all right, I'm participating!" said Nerwen hurriedly.

"One thing I had forgotten was that everyone in a tie gets double-lynched (for now). That makes it a good deal less likely that Nogrod is a wolf, unless Shasta is too– for would a wolf be able to resist letting the Seer and an innocent die, just by "forgetting" to vote?

'Now Shasta I think is indeed rather suspicious– he persists treating our horrifying predicament as though it's just... oh... I don't know," she frowned, "some kind of game.

'But then Nogrod has been going after him for this, which looks pretty innocent." Nerwen shrugged. "I don't know... I suppose it could be a wolf trying to drop a hint to his packmate.

'The more actually suspicious votes were from Inzi– tying McCaber with Fea– and Pitchwife– creating the three-way tie. However, I believe Pitchwife says he missed Lal's vote.

'I think we should remember, also, that the total number of votes cast was small, so ties were almost bound to happen at some point."

EDIT: X'd since Lalaith at #176. (I was called away, came back and posted without refreshing. Silly of me.)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, I think we'd benefit from recalling yesterday's votes. I'm surprised no one has done so yet.

"It's always nice to see how one is listened to - and how one's efforts are appreciated.

But if you Rikae - or anyone else - think you might learn something from a quite thorough reading & analysis of yesterDay's voting you might wish to check back #144 and #157 (previous page). It took me two hours to make them...

But yes, it was good you Rikae took the time to make a few comments on those votes as well. Different accounts of the same events tend to give one a bit larger view."

Nogrod Thought for a moment and then poured himself one more glass of wine.

"Okay, by yesterDay's voting I'd say I'd tend to trust the following eg. not wishing to see any of them lynched:

McCaber of course. No reason to doubt him right now.

Lalaith: If she was a wolf she could have easily voted for McCaber to save Fea - or give a second vote to Inzil, Nessa or Eönwë. So giving Shasta a first vote at that point would have been totally leaving her mate alone when she could have helped her quite discreetly as well.

The same goes for Pitchwife if he really didn't know what had happened two minutes before his vote. And on these things I guess we just have to trust.

Inziladun: Has been very considerate and reasonable all the time - making some very good points every now and then.

Nerwen and Rikae should take part more. You two are intelligent people and could help. I do hope your wish is to aid us and not those cursed werewolves..."

With that Nogrod left the room with the glass in his hand.

"Back soon, soonish..."

[autume98]

As people have been making their cases, I'm taking it all in. I've been quietly sipping my coffee and enjoying my muffin. I put my coffee mug on the table and decide to throw in my two cents worth.
Nessa voted for Fea. Could be a wolf on wolf vote. If that were the case it would be pretty risky. So for now I'm going to go with a knee jerk reaction. The vote also did help us get rid of one werewolf.
Inzil voted for McCaber when Fea needed it. Nessa brought this point up. Does seem a little suspicous. I'm keeping it in mind.
Shasta didn't vote on yesterDay.
Not sure what to think of Pitchwife at the moment. It seems that people are finding Pitchwife suspicious.
Nogrod seems ok so far. Great insight and good commentary. However no one is beyond suspicion. Could be good cover. At this time though I'm good with Nogrod.
Lalaith voted for Shasta. However there's not much to go on with Lalaith at the moment. I did find her findings about Pitchwife and Eonwe interesting.
Nerwen makes a good point that Inzil did vote for McCaber which tied the votes withFea.
I don't know enough about Rikae.
I'm not sure what to make of Eonwe. Eonwe voted for McCaber however at the time McCaber was coming across as suspicious. So could be genuine. At this time I'm ok with Eonwe.
I pick up my coffee once again and observe what is going around me.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But if you Rikae - or anyone else - think you might learn something from a quite thorough reading & analysis of yesterDay's voting you might wish to check back #144 and #157 (previous page). It took me two hours to make them...

Hmmm... what is this "page" you speak of? It's almost as if this whole thing was one big book...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Hmmm... what is this "page" you speak of? It's almost as if this whole thing was one big book...

Well, you know, us literary types...

EDIT:X'd with McCaber.