Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIX: Were-Librarians

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Form -> Hakon - looks genuine to me, though a concealed attempt to save Sally is not impossible
alona -> Mac - throwaway vote without any reason. I think a librarian would have tried to make her vote look more polished.

which makes:

nice:
Hakon
Form
alona

My throwaway vote would definitely fuel your theory that the librarians are an inexperienced bunch during this game, and the fact that I had Newbie protection for the first Day certainly would be help. The roles for this game were chosen at random, after all...

Seeing Form on the nice list, I was a little surprised - I noticed his attempt to cast suspicion elsewhere for Sally as well. And though nice doesn't mean innocent, he was wary of voting for both Nerwen and Sally.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Nerwen's protests have me chivalrously afraid to vote her. Sally's bandwaggon is admittedly weak--I agree full about her point re: Hakon, and I've already said I don't get Mac's Nienna vote.

How was the bandwaggon for Sally weak? She was practically on the hunt for Boro throughout the first half of Day 1, and then always reacting to the votes against her, rather than try and allay the suspicion that fueled those votes in the first place, as Mac said.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I'm going to pick up our lovely moddesses from their respective bus stop and airport terminal. No telling when I'll return, but it will obviously be before deadline.

Be sure to tackle glomp her for me! And make sure she gets some rest after that red eye flight! You know how Lari can be...

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

But Nienna's reasoning doesn't sound particularly wolfish to me, and she voted to kill Sally when it would've been easier to vote Nerwen, who already had two votes at the time.

But that's just what it looked like. I'd be glad to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

At this point, I'm leaning towards Nienna being innocent. Her phrasing didn't raise up any flags for me, and like you said, she could have used her vote to put Nerwen in the lead for being lynched, but she didn't. And in the end, she did vote to kill off a wolf, Sally. Unless the librarians are willing to kill one of their own to make themselves look innocent, but that's doubtful...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by alonariel

Seeing Form on the nice list, I was a little surprised - I noticed his attempt to cast suspicion elsewhere for Sally as well. And though nice doesn't mean innocent, he was wary of voting for both Nerwen and Sally.

How was the bandwaggon for Sally weak? She was practically on the hunt for Boro throughout the first half of Day 1, and then always reacting to the votes against her, rather than try and allay the suspicion that fueled those votes in the first place, as Mac said.

I think Form meant the fact that Nienna and Hakon merely gave vague IC reasons for their votes. But as you say, Sally was acting pretty obviously guilty– or so I thought, anyway. (Experienced players do tend to have a sort of knee-jerk reaction to unreasoned voting, though.)

Originally Posted by alonariel

And in the end, she did vote to kill off a wolf, Sally. Unless the librarians are willing to kill one of their own to make themselves look innocent, but that's doubtful...

Believe it or not, that happens quite a lot, but I think it's pretty unlikely in this case. Sally's delay in voting Nienna to save herself is slightly eyebrow-raising, but she was probably waiting to see which out of Nienna and I would get the most votes.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nienna

So far I'm a little concerned about Mac. He has been doing the most analyzing so is not being analyzed.

Not my fault.

Originally Posted by Nienna

His suspicion of me had no real grounds except that he didn't like my phrasing?

There was more, but it's not important anymore now.

Originally Posted by Alonariel

My throwaway vote would definitely fuel your theory that the librarians are an inexperienced bunch during this game

Now slowly everybody: I was thinking aloud and ended up with it. I'm far away from saying that's how things are.

[Boromir88]

Well, I'll accept your explanation for the moment. I noticed your Seer-hints, by the way, but as Sally didn't look any too innocent to me, I guessed you were faking it... but I didn't know why.~Nerwen

I didn't suspect anything until her last post, before the DL, which looked frantic and desperate. Sally has always been a bit...unconventional, and probably why it's always hard to figure her out. I was wondering about her avatar of Hermione holding books, but took it as a crazy-sally trick, not librarian sally.

Getting the votes and stuff together from yesterday now

[autume98]

This is all very interesting indeed. I'm really not sure what to think at this moment. In hindsight I probably shoulda posted my suspicions about Nienna before I did. Alas, that does me no good.

Now after taking a look at the voting I don't think Nienna is a wolf. It would've been a lot easier for her to vote for someone else then vote for Sally making it a wolf on wolf vote.

[Boromir88]

Boro -> autume - Boro, why is "A lot of commentary mixed in with a couple jokes" suspicious?~Mac

Why do you think autume is guilty then?

But seriously for Day 1, I can't think of a better reason yet to vote for someone than besides a player who just comments on the activity, not really offering an opinion, and tries some jokes to look nice (it's the fair to be wary of, not someone who will call a rat a rat). Sometimes I'm pretty cheerful, if there's a good lot of posting, but I called Inzil a commentator last game because that's what he was doing and only offering his opinion on completely irrelevant matters like whether a wolf would openly like blood or not. I got the same commenting feel from autume's first couple posts (and after the point when the true suspicions were supposed to start) - and I mentally graded her list a "D-'' ...oops I just made a joke.

I was going to analyze the votes, but seeing as from the morning I missed Mac's posting of votes and analysis, all I can really say is for the most part I agree with it, but will point out the differences...

None of the sally voters strikes 'wolf on wolf' to me, so I'm not sure why there are suspicions around Nerwen? She was pretty set on either Fea or sally right when they first voted for her. The only reason her vote came when it did, is because she was in a position where it was reasonable to withhold her vote in case she had to safe herself. Plus...well she got a wolf, a wolf she suspected almost immediately.

Nienna looks the most innocent, for that end of the day bit with sally. When sally first voted for Nienna, I thought she never retracted, therefor it shouldn't count and wondered if sally was going down in 'style' to try and protect a wolf-Nienna. However, based on what sally said and Lari counted it for a tie, than I'm assuming sally was purely voting for Nienna to try and save herself, not as some sacrificial trick to help Nienna. Does that make any sense? I'm afraid it makes sense in my head, but out on the screen it might not.

I'm worried about Formendacil's vote for Hakon, more so than Mac. It could be genuine confusion, caused by Form joining us late and trying to read through the day. But I don't know that rushing could also just be a wolf-Form joining in late, seeing sally in trouble and trying to figure out what to do to save her. I want to hear more from Form about his vote, he should now have plenty of time and not be rushed by the DL.

[Hakon]

I think we can rule out Alona from being a wolf. From the few games I have read through newbies are almost never wolves. One thing all of you need to realize is that if Nienna truly is innocent then she will most likely be killed off real soon. That way we have no one we can say is definitely innocent.

There is no reasoning behind this but I just have a hunch that Mac is the ranger. I tend to run off my hunches since last game I had a hunch that Pitchwife was the ranger and I was right.

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Hakon

I think we can rule out Alona from being a wolf. From the few games I have read through newbies are almost never wolves. One thing all of you need to realize is that if Nienna truly is innocent then she will most likely be killed off real soon. That way we have no one we can say is definitely innocent.

See, in this game, the moddesses pegged the roles at random. The fact that I'm a newbie has nothing to do with the role I received, just as the past history of roles of all the other players have no bearing on the role they received in this game. This makes me not only wary of people who I would generally discern are innocent based on their relationship with the moddesses, but also those who have been wolves in the past. In this case, using your past history against you is essentially useless.

Hakon: You said there's a fair chance I'm not a wolf, but didn't regard me as an innocent. Do you have a hunch about my role like you do Mac's?

[Boromir88]

My first game I was the seer, I did adequately enough, it was SpM who took over and won it for us, but I agree with alona we shouldn't rule out anyone for any role based on how many games someone has played. Some mods pick players, some do a type of random hat pull, others do a mix. There's really no way of knowing. Hunches are good though, because hunches are starting points, now you have to have reasons for your hunches, care to explain Hakon?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm worried about Formendacil's vote for Hakon, more so than Mac. It could be genuine confusion, caused by Form joining us late and trying to read through the day. But I don't know that rushing could also just be a wolf-Form joining in late, seeing sally in trouble and trying to figure out what to do to save her. I want to hear more from Form about his vote, he should now have plenty of time and not be rushed by the DL.

Well, I'll do my best--expecting, of course, that even if it satisfies you, Boro, it'll give someone else cause for complaint. Anyway, it is part confusion--but not because I came in late in the Day. I did, of course, but I had hours enough to catch myself up to the action--just. I could argue, all the same, that it was post-Long Weekend exhaustion, mixed with the brain-buzzing beginnings of a head cold, but while that undoubtedly didn't contribute anything useful, it'd be unsporting to give my physical state late in Day 1 much leverage.

(Although... I still have the cold today, and absolutely puttered my way through work in a sitting standstill, so if you want to feel sorry for me, now's the day to do it--the cold's worse--but fuzzy though the edges of my skull are, I still think I can reason and gut-instinct with my usual catastrophe.)

Anyway, what was basically going through my mind yesterDay was what I told Mac about his vote for Nienna: I really didn't like it, for the simple reason that it came, more or less to my eyes, out of nowhere, and--given the knowledge stowed away in some back compartment of my mind about Nienna being the new Saucepan Person for an abnormally high Day 1 deathrate, it seemed--if any vote on Day 1 can seem so--like a potentially malicious vote. More obviously so that than the whole morass of Nerwen and Sally

You also have to remember, Boro that yesterday was a Day 1. I may have decided that Mac's vote for Nienna was wrong, but that's hardly enough of a reason right there to jump on a Sally or Nerwen bandwaggon. Who to vote for then? Well, the usual Day 1 conditions held, and I went for someone who wasn't objectively all that suspicious, but had just touched my instincts the wrong way, so felt more appropriate than a jump-on bandwaggon vote. Call me timid, but I don't like casting potentially decisive votes on Day 1. Given that I don't feel there are generally any good reasons to think someone's guilty on Day 1, it simply puts way too much emphasis on a vote I'd rather not make. If we'd have gone by mere alarm-setting off, I'd have voted Mac, but I'm still good enough at second-guessing myself to say that that would have been the usual Day 1-jumping-at-shadows.

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Sally has always been a bit...unconventional, and probably why it's always hard to figure her out. I was wondering about her avatar of Hermione holding books, but took it as a crazy-sally trick, not librarian sally.

Being this is my first (official) game, I wonder if people have hidden clues to their identity in their avatars before?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by alonariel

Being this is my first (official) game, I wonder if people have hidden clues to their identity in their avatars before?

Ermm... occasionally, yes... but so often on the order of a red herring or a complete accident that it'd be foolish at best, in my opinion, to base an argument on it. The same goes for locations and signatures.

Of course, after the game these things can be the most blatant of referents back, but in-game I've never seen them indicative.

Caveat: I could be horribly wrong. 'tis possible...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

That's unlikely, as soon as it's thrown out there, hunch or not, it's more likely the wolves would pay attention.

Pay attention, yes. Act on it, unlikely.

Originally Posted by Boro

You should also consider it's an attempt by me to catch wolves in it's track...whether it's Hakon or another trying to turn the conversation.

Now first it was that our specific ranger is better off being revealed, and now it's a plot to flush a librarian out. You did not act in a way one would try to flush a Hakon-wolf out (put pressure on him). And discussing gifteds as a way of making a baddie slip up? New tactic to me. Actually, the only one who discussed it in a suspicious way was you: trying to keep one's head out of it while encouraging others to make themselves look bad.


Boro, are you aware how defensive you are about this? I could backpedal and believe your intentions and call it a difference of opinion, but it's all a bit too much to make me change my mind.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Boro, are you aware how defensive you are about this? I could backpedal and believe your intentions and call it a difference of opinion, but it's all a bit too much to make me change my mind.

Haha, now you try to make it look like some casual suspicion. You called me evil and underlined it...of course I'm defensive about that. I'm an up-tight and tense person, the amount of games won't change my personality.

I'm defensive because this is the exact argument I've had with other people in Fea's Republic game. It truly is something that frustrates me and I wish people could understand it.

If you want to know more about it, I can tell you more, but I have a feeling no matter what I say about it, it won't change your mind Mac. So, I'm moving on to other things. I'm telling you though you don't have to be immediately reactionary, give some time for things to play out, it doesn't even have to be a day, could just be a few hours. Then next time I probably won't get so defensive.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Caveat: I could be horribly wrong. 'tis possible...

I wouldn't say so...for me I'll just say whatever my role is my coyote avatar is completely incidental. I had it before I even started playing in WW, and even before I expressed concerns it would automatically make people think I was a wolf. To which, I was assured that usually avatars, sigs, whatever aren't meant to be taken 'seriously.'

I will add however, it is a reason to at least start looking, or focusing on someone. If your reason is just a person's avatar alone, that's pretty poor, it's like suspecting someone for their placement of smilies or exclamation marks. However, it could be a reason to at least focus on someone and see if how they act, or their behavior, 'fits' their avatar, or whatever it is.

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Of course, after the game these things can be the most blatant of referents back, but in-game I've never seen them indicative.

Caveat: I could be horribly wrong. 'tis possible...

Granted, the only info I'm running on is what Lari has told me about her past WW games, but my attention to detail can be both a blessing and a curse at times, I'm afraid.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

However, it could be a reason to at least focus on someone and see if how they act, or their behavior, 'fits' their avatar, or whatever it is.

Noted